Week 11 Money

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

for ndsent1

my thoughts on Oklahoma/Baylor

let me start by saying I have a tremendous amount of respect for Bob Stoops, I believe he runs an honest ship in Norman and he has accomplished alot in his career at that great program, conference titles, national title, just a great career that is under appreciated by many, it is very hard to do what Nick Saban is doing, that is why guys like Bob deserve more credit in my opinion

that said, I look at his past results outside of Norman against good teams in recent years and I can't help but think this game will end with the same tough results

they have played two teams that tried up tempo against them, Texas and Texas Tech, their defense had trouble with both, if you go back and watch the Texas/OU game again you will notice the Sooners having trouble with up tempo, the Sooners couldn't get aligned and really got beat on that side of the ball, I don't need to give a writeup for you to know that the Baylor up tempo and the Texas up tempo are worlds apart, I believe the OU defense will be the weak link in this game, not their offense which has been in several of their games

I respect OU's ability to run the football and I do see them getting their fair share of points, they may score 30, certainly capable of that without question but I'm betting on that not being nearly enough, this game sort of reminds me of the UCLA/Oregon game where one team will try to punch the other in the mouth and it may work for a while but it's only a matter of time before the Bears pull away, Baylor could literally be down 7 with a minute left in the 3rd quarter and still cover this number

many will expect OU to implement the Kansas St game plan and play keep away from the Baylor fast break but I don't see Bob doing that, his team plays much faster than Kansas St and I don't think he is willing to change his style just because he is playing Baylor (a team he has owned), OU doesn't operate at a Baylor type speed but they do have an up tempo style with quick snaps, etc and they like to keep the defense guessing, I think their own version of up tempo works against them here, if Bob did slow it down and try to grind out the clock then OU would almost certainly keep this close with a chance to win (they do have more play makers than Kansas St does if we are being honest)

since I don't coach at OU and coaches don't give out their game plan prior to a game I can only guess that Bob and the Sooners will stick to their style of play, I think they will and I'm betting on it, I may pay for this assumption, it's possible

now lets chat about homefield, it means almost everything in college football, defenses play better, offenses play better, it's easier to get your tempo going, special teams usually play better, its just a huge difference in the college game, all you have to do is look at OU teams under Stoops at home, a great example

this is a rare major network night game for the Baylor Bears against a big time opponent, the spread of 13.5 to 14.5 (I guess now its 15ish) is a brilliant line in my opinion, how many times have you seen the legend Bob Stoops and his top quality Oklahoma program catching two touchdowns?  it's hard to fathom an OU team with NFL athletes everywhere catching that amount of points isn't it?  I think for that reason alone books will get money on both sides with that line, it's a very intelligent line by the oddsmakers, I've seen many on OU and I've seen many on Baylor in this forum, the line is that good in my opinion

we as gamblers are very aware of Baylor because they are a covering machine so we all love them, the nation as a whole though is only talking 3-4 teams for the title, none of which include Baylor, the Bears know they haven't played a tough schedule and they have to prove themselves in this game, Briles does an amazing job getting his team to believe in what they are doing and to think they are the best team in the country, I think the nation will be taking notice on Thursday night

if OU led early it wouldn't surprise me but I like Baylor to pull away and pull away big at some point


I'll go with 52-27

this is my opinion of how things play out, bet responsibly and make your own decisions regarding this game

if you want to disagree or rip me if this game loses then give your thoughts here before the game starts and you can do that, I can stand the heat but bring it, don't be a typical forum coward that throws up burning bags in people's threads (one of the many things I won't miss about the lames around here)

I'm too tired to spell check so forgive the typos



Must read , thanks wahoo troll trying too add to degenerate ways thanks.

Quote Originally Posted by BigShotBill:

Loving Oregon tomorrow. What are your thoughts?

Stanford seems overrated. They barely beat Washington at home and they didn't play well vs. UCLA at home, they were tied half way through the third Q. They lost to Utah and barely beat Oregon St on the road. Those are their last 4 games played. This isn't last years team in my opinion.

Hogan just doesn't impress me at all at QB. Last 4 games he's 59% comp % 3 tds 2 ints 165.5 pass yds per game. Their TEs are nothing this year and Hogan really misses Ertz and Toilolo. Oregon probably has a top 3 secondary in the country too so I don't see things getting better here. If Oregon can plug their ground game I just don't see how they can stay with Oregon.

Thoughts?

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Baylor

Quote Originally Posted by mweins2:

Let me throw a couple of other thoughts your way...  Any insight?