Week 1

I don't use a system.

Regarding stats in NCAA football, I use 5 key stats to help me come to a conclusion in beating the spread 

1.Offensive/Defensive yds per PLAY

2. Turnover margin

3. 3rd down conversion %

4. Average field position

5. Red Zone %

I'm more into X/O's than I am line movement. I couldn't give a fukk less about being against line movement. If I've capped a game and I like a team, I take them. I usually have a pretty good read on lines so it's not too often that I'm on the other side of the movement. However,  I have two games in week 1 that I was off....Penn State and TCU. Don't care. Both teams win by 3 td's. 

In regards to trends, they'res a couple 9f different styles of handicapping. 

1. Fundamental Handicapping. 

This type of gambler uses power rankings, personnel matchups and player stats to make their best judgement in beating the spread. This type of handicapping, imo, is a shittty way to cap college football because such a wide disparity exists between good and bad teams. I'm not saying that we shouldn't use raw numbers in our analysis, however, it's a fact that we see a lot of 49-14 football games in college football and these games skew the statistics in terms of numbers.

2. Situational Handicapping.

 This is, more times than not, how I handicap. I look at specific situations and some of these situations can be just as much psychological as physical or raw numbers. How does a team come out after a disappointing loss or a big win. Betting teams based on emotion is very difficult but capping a variable such as an emotional trend, for example, has proven relevant season after season. I also pay close attention to coaching philosophies.  Style points now matter more than ever in regards to rankings and the playoff format so I'll be using a head coach's tendencies as a major 2nd half variable this season. 

3. Technical Handicapping. 

These idiots like to use trends and line movements as their primary tool for handicapping a game. 90% of Covers posters are technical "cappers." I don't have a problem with incorporating these elements as long as you actually understand the fukking matchup your "capping." For some dude to actually give an opinion on an outcome based on a trend rather than actually knowing anything else about the matchup doesn't hold any merit. It's safe to say that 90% of these "cappers" shower before they shitt. Not too bright to just play trends and line movements. I don't think a lot of us realize how many times sharps actually lose.

Thanks for your post, bol this season.