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Week 1

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Posts: 147

cjm2008

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 22012

Posted: Jul. 25, 2015 - 11:22 PM ET #26

Look out early in the season for some MAC teams against the Big 5 conferences. Check the early spreads for WMU, BGSU, NI, and Toledo.

WMU and NI both on the Buckeyes schedule and should be 28-32 pt underdogs.

vankiep_0007

Hall of Fame

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 24696

Posted: Jul. 26, 2015 - 12:13 AM ET #27

Gl this season AMD

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jul. 26, 2015 - 7:33 AM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by POISON66:

I'm with you. I think Cowboys will stomp C Michigan into the ground on Thursday night nationally televised game. ....

State with the return starters they have ...should pound CM , but AMD is a highly respected capper and I was hoping he can give some inside on the CM love ???

amd

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 33109

Posted: Jul. 26, 2015 - 3:05 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

State with the return starters they have ...should pound CM , but AMD is a highly respected capper and I was hoping he can give some inside on the CM love ???

Thanks for the posts, I'll come back tonight or in the am to make a fee points as to why I took CMU and my other games.

dontbookme

Veteran

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 4727

Posted: Jul. 26, 2015 - 4:03 PM ET #30

Good to see ya bro.. GL this upcoming season

sweetlou927

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2011

Posts: 202

Posted: Jul. 26, 2015 - 7:24 PM ET #31

hey amd like your picks big fan.how do u feel about michigan over 3 and a half wins

amd

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 33109

Posted: Jul. 26, 2015 - 9:48 PM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by sweetlou927:

hey amd like your picks big fan.how do u feel about michigan over 3 and a half wins

I think the total is right on but I would play over. I think they can beat Indiana, Rutgers, Oregon State and UNLV. Maryland is up in the air. I realize Utah will be solid this year but Michigan is catching them at the right time of the year and I think that game will be a low scoring game with either team having an opportunity to start the season in the win column.

amd

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 33109

Posted: Jul. 27, 2015 - 2:01 AM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Michigan +4

Penn State -10

TCU -17

Western Michigan +23

USC -29

Illinois -16

Central Michigan +21

Northwestern +12

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jul. 27, 2015 - 6:28 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Thanks for the posts, I'll come back tonight or in the am to make a fee points as to why I took CMU and my other games.

Much appreciated bro ... any info on this game would help !!!

simple3

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2015

Posts: 888

Posted: Jul. 27, 2015 - 7:37 PM ET #35

Thanks for the great post about your methods. What are your 5 key stats in NFL? Also where do you find your stats? At the start of the season are you using last seasons stats, if so after how many weeks do you start using the new stats?

Thanks

Uhthoff

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2012

Posts: 59

Posted: Jul. 30, 2015 - 7:23 PM ET #36

Hey amd, been following you in mlb and planning on it for football. Added you as a friend to make that easier. Cheers!

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 55616

Posted: Jul. 30, 2015 - 8:33 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by amd:

I don't use a system.

Regarding stats in NCAA football, I use 5 key stats to help me come to a conclusion in beating the spread

1.Offensive/Defensive yds per PLAY

2. Turnover margin

3. 3rd down conversion %

4. Average field position

5. Red Zone %

I'm more into X/O's than I am line movement. I couldn't give a fukk less about being against line movement. If I've capped a game and I like a team, I take them. I usually have a pretty good read on lines so it's not too often that I'm on the other side of the movement. However, I have two games in week 1 that I was off....Penn State and TCU. Don't care. Both teams win by 3 td's.

In regards to trends, they'res a couple 9f different styles of handicapping.

1. Fundamental Handicapping.

This type of gambler uses power rankings, personnel matchups and player stats to make their best judgement in beating the spread. This type of handicapping, imo, is a shittty way to cap college football because such a wide disparity exists between good and bad teams. I'm not saying that we shouldn't use raw numbers in our analysis, however, it's a fact that we see a lot of 49-14 football games in college football and these games skew the statistics in terms of numbers.

2. Situational Handicapping.

This is, more times than not, how I handicap. I look at specific situations and some of these situations can be just as much psychological as physical or raw numbers. How does a team come out after a disappointing loss or a big win. Betting teams based on emotion is very difficult but capping a variable such as an emotional trend, for example, has proven relevant season after season. I also pay close attention to coaching philosophies. Style points now matter more than ever in regards to rankings and the playoff format so I'll be using a head coach's tendencies as a major 2nd half variable this season.

3. Technical Handicapping.

These idiots like to use trends and line movements as their primary tool for handicapping a game. 90% of Covers posters are technical "cappers." I don't have a problem with incorporating these elements as long as you actually understand the fukking matchup your "capping." For some dude to actually give an opinion on an outcome based on a trend rather than actually knowing anything else about the matchup doesn't hold any merit. It's safe to say that 90% of these "cappers" shower before they shitt. Not too bright to just play trends and line movements. I don't think a lot of us realize how many times sharps actually lose.

Thanks for your post, bol this season.

What style do I fall under.....?

Quote Originally Posted by amd:

I don't use a system.

Regarding stats in NCAA football, I use 5 key stats to help me come to a conclusion in beating the spread

1.Offensive/Defensive yds per PLAY

2. Turnover margin

3. 3rd down conversion %

4. Average field position

5. Red Zone %

In regards to trends, they'res a couple 9f different styles of handicapping.

1. Fundamental Handicapping.

2. Situational Handicapping.

3. Technical Handicapping.

Thanks for your post, bol this season.

What style do I fall under.....?

blowoutgm

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 6204

Posted: Jul. 31, 2015 - 1:33 PM ET #38

Good to see you AMD! I love the TCU and Penn St plays- I got TCU -14 and Penn St -6.5 about a week ago from my local- good luck this year!

Professional1

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 41623

Posted: Jul. 31, 2015 - 3:22 PM ET #39

gl bud

MaineRoad

All-Star

Joined: May, 2005

Posts: 12254

Posted: Jul. 31, 2015 - 7:42 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

What style do I fall under.....?

I like to think of your style as "I Forgot to Take My Depakote" handicapping.

shakey12381

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 27706

Posted: Aug. 1, 2015 - 12:32 AM ET #41

Lol

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 55616

Posted: Aug. 1, 2015 - 9:29 AM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

I like to think of your style as "I Forgot to Take My Depakote" handicapping.

Sounds about right

MaineRoad

All-Star

Joined: May, 2005

Posts: 12254

Posted: Aug. 3, 2015 - 6:25 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Sounds about right

You're a good man, meds or no.

GotPhoTai

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 961

Posted: Aug. 4, 2015 - 12:29 PM ET #44

Thanks amd

nostradamus12

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10740

Posted: Aug. 4, 2015 - 2:53 PM ET #45

BOL this season doctah

slomotion

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 2852

Posted: Aug. 5, 2015 - 11:57 AM ET #46

GL my friend

canvasback75

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 121

Posted: Aug. 5, 2015 - 7:23 PM ET #47

I'm liking Boise St and Stanford week one any insight on these games? Amd great job as always keep up the good work.

quietman

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2013

Posts: 14

Posted: Aug. 7, 2015 - 5:08 PM ET #48

Hey amd, are u on twitter, I would like to follow u if possible, thanks

N2D33PSPORTS

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 290

Posted: Aug. 9, 2015 - 6:20 PM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Michigan +4

Penn State -10

TCU -17

Western Michigan +23

love the play

amd

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 33109

Posted: Aug. 9, 2015 - 6:26 PM ET #50

Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

I like to think of your style as "I Forgot to Take My Depakote" handicapping.

lmfao...Couldnt have said it better, Maine. Always a great read, thanks for stopping by. Regardless of how Train handicaps, Depakote not, hes on the correct side may more times than not. I enjoy his posts, for sure. Bol this season

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