Purdue @ Rutgers - Yes I have a play on it

Unfortunately this Purdue line has gotten a bit out of hand at -9.5. This was a play of the year type game as these are both my teams but the line is just to high Purdue has not covered as a road favorite since 2009. So I'm just not crazy about the line.

Having said that, knowing what I know about both teams (and I know them both the best of any two in the league) I see no way Rutgers wins this game. 

Rutgers just snapped a 16 game losing streak against lowly Illinois.

If you remember, Purdue, under the ungodly instruction of Hazell (which really was Purdue's rock bottom in comparison to the light years ahead where they are now under Brohm), went to Illinois last year and won in OT as 6 pt. dogs. 

So Illinois has the terrible distinction of losing at home to Purdue under Hazell (something he did only to 2 other teams in 4 years in Big 10 play) and losing to Rutgers (again, snapping a 16 game Big Ten losing streak).

In a word, Illinois is really the bottom feeder here in the Big 10 (and for some reason it happens in Illinois to add to the fans misery).

So the Rutgers win last week was nothing special. 

Still they treated it as such going bonkers in the locker room after the game with even Ash getting in on the action (the team is so starved for a win they are hopping around like they just made the Final 4. Come on.) It was, in a word....embarrassing.

Rutgers is 118th in team offense and 56th in defense. They did well on the ground last week and that is Purdue's specialty when compared too their D on passing attacks.

In short, Purdue is going to win the game and they my win by a sizable margin. It all depends on Rutgers ball control (as they will ground and pound, milking the clock since that worked last week), and how fast Purdue gets out in front. And Purdue limiting mistakes.

Purdue is going to win. I'm very confident of that. I wouldn't blame you for laying the 9.5 but I'm just not there (-7 I would absolutely do it) but -9.5 is just irritating me a bit.

Purdue has just so many more weapons than Rutgers, better health, a better coach, better QB and RB core and defense. And on and on. So the line is justifiable. 

But I'm MUCH more comfortable teasing it.

And the other game I'll choose to tease it with is Missouri -14 over Idaho.

I don't care how bad you think Mizzou's defense is (and yes it's awful) but Idaho's offense, ranking near the bottom of the league is just as bad. They have a terrible offensive line that simply cannot protect the QB.

Odom should just blitz him all day.

And Drew Lock is famous for using a game like this to beef up his passing stats and should throw for a minimum of 5 TD's, some with big plays (as Mizzou is famous for this year even in losses).  This is something he did to the Blue Hens last year in a 79-0 win. Idaho is not Delaware but they are not good. Neither is Mizzou but they are home and Odom's head is on the chopping block. And Mizzou can score and score big.

I don't see Idaho scoring much at all even against a terrible D and I see Mizzou running it up and intentionally pouring it on to have Odom save face for an awful season. And Idaho also in a lost season with one win and heading back to the FCS next year looks like they are just playing out the string.

So the pick will be:

6.5 pt tease

Love the Purdue play tomorrow. Only thing that worries me is the road factor, but the Boilermakers should be able to win by double digits. 

Tomorrow my early play is Pitt over Duke. Really think the Duke QB is prone to mistakes and Pitt is due for a nice win. 

They say the Sharps have learned how to kick their axxes in the NFL with Teasers, but they said any guy off the Street could open  a CASINO without any money if all he took was Teaser bets on College Football.

That is the only thing that worries me.  Scal is usually "dead on" with his reasoning and selections.

If you're ever in Tempe, let me know

That is completely false. 

Books have actually lowered their limits on their teasers because so many games (both sides) were falling inside the teased number (which essentially creates a 13 point window).

The guys on Vsin (which I listen to) were referring to using a tease on a team like East Carolina or Texas Tech or Oklahoma State which is largely pointless because they blow away spreads of all kinds.

Risk if I am going to make one play of the two I would make it Missouri (although I could see Purdue covering as well, they just make 1 or 2 mistakes every game that gives the other team backdoor points).

I think Missouri will come out throwing bombs (and converting those is something they are good at) and Idaho is dreadful on offense. If Mizzou cannot keep Idaho at Bay, hand the pink slip to Odom at halftime.

Thanks Hawk/guys...

But I'm not laying 7.5 with Umass. No way. No how. Straight up? Ok. But not points.

A foolish genius with Rutgers up by 4 late in the 2nd..

I wrote a song:

           author -- Kane

Rutgers just snapped a 16 game losing streak against lowly Illinois.

So Illinois has the terrible distinction of losing at home to Purdue under Hazell (something he did only to 2 other teams in 4 years in Big 10 play) and losing to Rutgers (again, snapping a 16 game Big Ten losing streak).

In a word, Illinois is really the bottom feeder here in the Big 10 (and for some reason it happens in Illinois to add to the fans misery).

So the Rutgers win last week was a big boost for this team's morale. 

Rutgers is 118th in team offense and 56th in defense. They did well on the ground last week and that is Purdue's specialty when compared too their D on passing attacks.

In short, Purdue is going to lose the game and they my lose by a sizable margin. It all depends on Rutgers ball control (as they will ground and pound, milking the clock since that worked last week), and how fast Purdue gets out in front. 

Purdue is going to lose straight-up. I'm very confident of that. I will blame you for laying the 9.5 but I'm just not there (-7 I would absolutely do it) but -9.5 is just irritating me a bit.

But I'm MUCH more comfortable teasing it. Because i am only a 50% handicapper lifetime. Yes, i am that average Joe.

And the other game I'll choose to tease it with is Missouri -14 over Idaho.

So the pick will be:

6.5 pt tease because teasers are for cowards and losers.

bro.. stop betting money you can't afford to lose.. blame yourself not the poster.. 

Lost your lunch money