@HooAlum
I'll give the weekly update in a few hours but wanted to get tonight's game in first before kickoff (though admittedly early games have not been my forte the last 2 weeks going 2-3 and losing 1.4 units)
Marshall - 3 units - Steam and low bet favorite.
Still waiting on a final sharp report favoring the Ragin' Cajuns that could move it down to 2 units, but I am getting less hopeful by the minute I will get it so will stick with the call for 3.
@HooAlum
I totally missed the over/under squeeze tonight in Louisiana Lafayette-Marshall. It is a pretty big one. That brings everything back to a no bet as the heavy O/U balances out the steam and low bet favorite. I sincerely apologize for the prior call, especially since it was so obvious.
@HooAlum
Here is the weekly update and early picks. This upcoming week is shaping up to be a big one and is already making me nervous (would YOU bet on Oklahoma given the dumpster fire they've been. Forget about covering the 9, can they even score 9? Well the numbers have it a huge one for the Sooners). Last week was a winner but as one follower pointed out, it was a REALLY good week if you got TCU at -6.5 (the pre-saturday morning and FanDuel spread at game time), solid if you got them at 7 (most closing spreads), mediocre if you got them at -7.5 (I was told Draft Kings was at 7.5). Great example on a need to shop for lines. Most legalized jurisdictions have multiple books so do not be afraid to shop around. Many websites, including VI have a list of spreads so that should help.
Weekly Record: 9-6
Season Record: 66-58 (52.8%)
Weekly Revenue: 60.8 units on 46 wagered
Season Revenue: 390.8 units on 355 wagered (10.08% profit)
Thursday
West Virginia-Baylor - No Bet
Friday
SMU (2 units) - low ticket favorite
Saturday Noon
Minnesota (9 units) - first of the big ones - low ticket favorite, SKS, Bye week return
Ole Miss (2 units) - low ticket favorite
Penn St (1 unit) - sharp indicator and bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite
Iowa St-Texas - No Bet
Oklahoma (13.5 units - Really?) - very low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering with positive line movement, positive reverse movement, SKS, and blowout response
Miami (2 units) - low ticket favorite
Saturday 3:30
Alabama (4 units) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering
Syracuse (6.5 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, SKS, bye week return
BYU-Arkansas - No Bet
TCU (1.5 units) - SKS
Michigan St (2 units) - lopsided wagering
Saturday Evening
LSU (2 units) - lopsided wagering
Notre Dame (3 units) - low ticket favorite, positive reverse movement outweighs over/under squeeze
Kentucky (1.5 units) - heavy reverse movement outweighs SKS
Florida St (9 units) - lopsided wagering, sharp indicators & SKS
Utah (6 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator and SKS
Saturday Late Night
Oregon St (2 units) - low ticket favorite
Fresno St (1 unit) lopsided wagering outweighs steam
*************************
Here is a glossary and performance of indicators. If you really like an indicator (or conversely do not like it). This will allow you to adjust your wagers based on what YOU find important beyond my suggested amounts.
Western team, early east start: 100% (1-0)
SKS (line and public rankings out of sync): 76.74%
Bye Week Return: 66.67% (high home rfavorite, low road dog - 100% (3-0)
Low Bet Favorite: 61.9% (Positive line movement 66.67%; Negative movement 41.18%; No Movement 78.95%)
Reverse Movement: 57.14% (positive reverse movement 75%; Negative reverse movement 52.94%)
Over/Under Squeeze: 55.36%
Line Movement (recorded not measured): 54.22% (Positive line movement 64.71%; Negative Line Movement 38.89%)
Sharp Indicators: 51.13% (was under 40% just a few weeks ago so the comeback is almost complete - over its 3 year history it is 54.88%)
Steam: 42.86%
Lopsided Wagering: 42.11% (opposite line movement 40%; mirroring line movement 0% (0-1); no line movement 50%; large underdog 50%; Road Favorite 42.86%)
Blowout Response: 33% (1-2)
@HooAlum
will it or won't it. The line has toggled back and forth between reverse movement in favor of the Ponies back to no movement for the last few hours in SMU-Navy. With that much uncertainty I say no to reverse movement. That leaves us with a low ticket favorite and a 2 unit play on SMU that could have been more. Hey at least you can catch it as a lesser number (-12 at Caesars)
@HooAlum
Here is the Friday Night update for tomorrow. Probably will update during the day.
Saturday Noon
Minnesota (10 units) - positive reverse movement with line movement, SKS, Bye week return
Auburn-Ole Miss - No bet
Penn St (2 units) - sharp indicator and bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite
Texas (2 units) - low ticket favorite
Oklahoma (9.5 units - has come down a little) - still very low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS, and blowout response
Virginia Tech-Miami - No Bet
Saturday 3:30
Alabama (8 units) - if anyone does not realize that word got out around noon that Bryce Young is going to play check out the surge I the line. I literally saw the line moving and tried to catch the falling knife. As I typed on my phone to enter the wager it literally moved from -7 (105) to 8.5 (-110), and I still feel I am o the right side - -7 (-105!!) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering with positive movement (Bryce young) and sharp indicators
Syracuse (7.5 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, SKS, bye week return
BYU (3 units) - positive reverse movement
TCU (3.5 units) - sharp indicators & SKS
Michigan St (2 units) - reverse movement
Saturday Evening
Florida Atlantic (3 units) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp play
LSU-Florida - No Bet
Stanford-Notre Dame - No Bet - low ticket favorite balanced out by over/under squeeze
Kentucky (2 units) - steam move
Florida St (8 units) - lopsided wagering, sharp indicators & SKS
Utah (7 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator and SKS
Saturday Late Night
Oregon St (2 units) - low ticket favorite
Fresno St (4 unit) - lopsided wagering & reverse movement
@HooAlum
Update for early non night games. BIG NOTE on Minnesota-Illinois as many tells have pulled back
Here is the Friday Night update for tomorrow. Probably will update during the day.
Saturday Noon
Minnesota (3.5 units) - SKS, Bye week return outweighs steam (DeVito now to start for Illinois)
Auburn-Ole Miss - No bet
Penn St (1 unit) - sharp indicator and bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite
Iowa St-Texas - No Bet
Oklahoma (10.5 units - Bear called it out on Gameday as a note - take that for what it is worth) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS, and blowout response
Virginia Tech-Miami - No Bet
Saturday 3:30
Alabama (8 units) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering with positive movement (Bryce young) and sharp indicators
Syracuse (7.5 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, SKS, bye week return
BYU (5 units) - low ticket favorite, positive reverse movement, jumped the fence
TCU (5.5 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicators & SKS
Michigan St (2 units) - reverse movement
@HooAlum
Saturday Evening (note change to Stanford an Irish tells went away and Noles less)
LSU (1 units) - sharp indicator
Stanford (2 units) -over/under squeeze
Kentucky (2 units) - Steam and sharp indicator outweighs low ticket favorite
Florida St (5 units) - sharp indicators & SKS
Utah (6 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator and SKS
@HooAlum
Here is the first update for the week. First a recap. Not the best week as it was overall a loser eating into the cushion that had been built up. EASt least this week is starting better with last night's win (even if it was modest). Also a a programming not so to speak I will be away from a computer for much of the afternoon on Saturday so apologize for late breaking tells (e.g. Minnesota being reduced last week in strength, but at least I had that our a half hour before game time - unfortunately relying on whether I update or not is tough, sorry about that lack of efficiency). This week I might not be able to report on late moves for 3:30 games until the evening)
WEEKLY RECORD: 9-9
OVERALL RECORD: 75-68 (52.45%)
WEEKLY REVENUE: 59.5 units on 68 placed
OVERALL REVENUE: 450.3 units on 423 placed (6.45% profit)
THURSDAY
Virginia-Georgia Tech - No Bet
SATURDAY NOON
Iowa (2 units) - over/under squeeze
Cincinnati (1 unit) - bye week return
Rutgers (1 unit ) - bye week return
Clemson (1 unit) - low ticket favorite and sharp indicator outweighs over/under squeeze
Baylor (7 units) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, reverse movement
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
Texas Tech (3 units) - low ticket favorite and bye week return
Oregon (5 units) - low ticket favorite and SKS
Northwestern (5 units) - lopsided wagering, over/under squeeze and bye week return
Tulane (2 units) - low ticket favorite
LSU (4 units) - sharp indicator and SKS
Texas (8 units) - low ticket favorite and heavy SKS (someone has to explain to me the line on this one. while Sanders is banged up he is playing, they are at home and are teh higher ranked team)
SATURDAY EVENING
Mississippi St-Alabama - No Bet
Minnesota (2 units) - reverse movement
South Carolina-Texas A&M - No Bet
Kansas St (1 unit) - sharp indicators and bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite
Pitt-Louisville - No bet
SATURDAY LATE NIGHT
Washington (2 units) - low ticket favorite
********************
INDICATOR PERFORMANCE TO DATE (this way if you like a particular indicator you can pick and choose your games above based on that, if you feel an indicator is weak you can adjust based on the description ov the selections above)
West Coast Early Eastern Start Time - 100% (1-0)
SKS: 67% (line does not align with public ranking - see Texas-Oklahoma St above as a classic example)
Over/Under Squeeze: 59.02%
Bye Week Return: 58.33%; augmentation 75%
Low Ticket Favorite: 56.76%
Reverse Movement: 56%; Positive Reverse movement 50%, negative reverse movement 57.89% (interesting as usually positive is more reliable - 62.79% to 52.25% on a 4 year rolling average)
Line Movement (measured but not applied - though maybe I should start): 54.7%; positive line movement 61.8%, negative line movement 45%
Sharp Indicator: 51%; 52.7% straight up before augmentation (nevertheless for those following this is a HUGE improvement as early on sharp indicators were around 40%)
Steam Movement: 50%
Blowout Response: 50%
Lopsided Wagering 47.62%; lopsided wagering on an away favorite 50%
@HooAlum
Not really a lot of change from yesterday. Baylor pulling back probably is the most notable along with SMU now the choice.
SATURDAY NOON
Iowa (2 units) - over/under squeeze
SMU (2 units) - Heavy sharp indicators outweigh bye week return
Rutgers (1 unit ) - bye week return
Clemson (4 unit) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator and positive reverse movement outweigh over/under squeeze
Baylor (4 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
West Virginia-Texas Tech - No Bet - indicator sharp and bye week return cancels out reverse movement
Oregon (6 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator and SKS
Northwestern (5 units) - lopsided wagering, over/under squeeze and bye week return
Memphis-Tulane - No Bet
LSU (3 units) - sharp indicator and SKS
Texas (8 units) - low ticket favorite and heavy SKS
SATURDAY EVENING
Mississippi St-Alabama - No Bet
Minnesota (2 units) - reverse movement
South Carolina-Texas A&M - No Bet
Kansas St (2 units) - sharp indicators and bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite
Pitt-Louisville - No bet
SATURDAY LATE NIGHT
Washington (2 units) - low ticket favorite
@HooAlum
As a note, the Oregon-UCLA game line is surging. it is the biggest play of the weekend. FanDuel still has it at 6.5, most are at 7 already. I just personally grabbed it at 6.5. It is a 9 unit play so get it before it is 7 everywhere. This is reminiscent of Oklahoma-Kansas surging to 10 last week.
I'll give my morning update in about an hour but wanted to get that in
@HooAlum
Here is update for the noon games
SATURDAY NOON
Iowa-Ohio St - No Bet -low ticket favorite balances out over/under squeeze
SMU (1 unit) - Heavy sharp indicators outweigh bye week return
Rutgers (1 unit ) - bye week return
Clemson (3 unit) - low ticket favorite and positive reverse movement outweigh over/under squeeze
Baylor (4 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator
2:30 NEW GAME
Enough handle now to do UNLV-Notre Dame
UNLV (2 units) - over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
