Public Indicators Calculations

@HooAlum

Long overdue and should have given last week before people's bowl pools were due but better late than never as I at least I gave analysis for the games that occurred and while the record was 4-4, the profit was still strong at around 25% as the big bets came home and the weak ones did not.

BOWL RECORD: 4-4

SEASON RECORD: 140-118 (54.26%)

BOWL REVENUE: 30.4 units on 25 units wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 844.3 units on 759 units wagered (11.24%)

Here is a rundown of the remaining games (certainly subject to change)

TODAY

UCONN (2 units): over/under squeeze and double digit bowl underdog outweighs low ticket favorite and line movement

TUESDAY

San Jose St (1 unit): low ticket favorite, reverse movement outweighs sharp indicators

Liberty (2 units): sharp indicators outweighs low ticket favorite

WEDNESDAY

Western Kentucky (4 units): Steam and sharp indicators

THURSDAY

Air Force (6 units): Steam and sharp indicators

FRIDAY

Houston (2 units): low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering and reverse movement outweighs sharp indicators (this court really turn Houston's way as I feel; sharp indicators will fade as we get closer to game time)

Missouri (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low ticket favorite

SATURDAY

San Diego St (3 units): low ticket favorite and sharp indicators

MONDAY DECEMBER 26

New Mexico St-Bowling Green: No Bet

TUESDAY DECEMBER 27

Buffalo-Georgia Southern: No Bet

Memphis (1 unit): sharp indicator

Coastal Carolina: (6 units): steam, line movement, reverse movement

Oklahoma St: (1 unit): sharp indicator

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 28

Duke (3 units): line movement and sharp indicators

Kansas (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low ticket favorite

Oregon (1 unit): sharp indicators outweighs double digit underdog

Ole Miss (1 unit): low ticket favorite

THURSDAY DECEMBER 29

Syracuse (1 unit): sharp indicator

Oklahoma (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh line movement

Texas (1 unit): low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs line movement and reverse movement

FRIDAY DECEMBER 30

Maryland (1 1/2 units): SKS and low ticket favorite outweighs sharp indicator

Pitt (8 units): steam, line movement, west coast team early start and sharp indicator outweighs low ticket favorite

Notre Dame (1/2 unit)low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp indicators

Wyoming (2 units): sharp indicators

Clemson (6 units): low ticket favorite, SKS and sharp indicators

SATURDAY DECEMBER 31

Alabama (4 units): steam (ahem Bryce Young), line movement, sharp indicators outweighs bowl snub

Iowa (2 units): sharp indicators

Michigan (1/2 unit): SKS outweighs sharp indicators

Ohio St (4 units):lopsided wagering and sharp indicators

MONDAY DECEMBER 2

Illinois (1 1/2 unit): SKS and sharp indicator outweighs reverse movement 

Tulane (3 units): sharp indicator and bowl snub

LSU (1 unit): Steam, line movement outweighs lopsided wagering and bowl large spread

Penn St (2 units): line movement and sharp indicator

@HooAlum

 Here is a guide for the performance of the indicators

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE TO DATE (this way if you like a particular indicator you can pick and choose your games above based on that, if you feel an indicator is weak you can adjust based on the description ov the selections above)

West Coast Early Eastern Start Time - 100%

SKS: 62.11% (line does not align with public ranking)

Reverse Movement: 61.90%; Positive Reverse movement 58.33%, negative reverse movement 63.33%

Over/Under Squeeze: 60.63%

Lopsided Wagering 60.53%; lopsided wagering on an away favorite 53.85%

Bye Week Return: 59.26%; augmentation 62.5%

Line Movement (measured but not applied will be applied top bowl season): 56.57%; positive line movement 58.06%, negative line movement 54.65%

Sharp Indicator (sharp reports of betting patterns): 54.51%; 54.14% straight up before augmentation

Steam Movement: 52.63%

Low Ticket Favorite: 52.05%

Style Points: 50%

Blowout Response: 38.46% (measured but not used)

@HooAlum

Games today and tonight.  

Eastern Michigan-San Jose St (No Bet): feel free to criticize since this is late and EMU is out front but reverse movement did go away when the line moved back to (-3.5/-4) from (-4/-4.5) at 2:00 this afternoon.  My bad for not reporting before game time.  It was a small 1 unit play before so hopefully people did not bet their mortgage.

Liberty (3 units): Heavy sharp indicators and line movement outweigh low ticket favorite.

@HooAlum

I like to wait closer to gametime but the cake is at least somewhat baked for Western Kentucky tonight and the spread is bleeding points.  You can still get FanDuel at (+4.5) but most books have already fallen to 3.5, and we could even see it touch 3 before kickoff.  Big 4 unit play based ion aggressive steam and line movement.  It also has lopsided wagering midday today but that has pulled back with a few more Western Kentucky bets (and a reason why the spread is going down).  If the ticket count for South Alabama rises just a notch this could become a huge 7 unit play.  Thus, you can wait to pay attention to ticket counts going toward USA and likely a 3.5 spread or go now at 4 units and grab the 4.5 points.  Tough call but wanted to report now so people had the option.

@HooAlum

Well, in full disclosure the lopsided wagering never materialized.  It closed 3% short of when I like to call it.  At 31-3 at the half, would love to have those 3 units back, but I should not complain as 4 units is still a strong play.

Thanks for posting as always.

@HooAlum

Air Force is a 5 unit play tonight thanks to steam, line movement and sharp indicators outweighing low ticket favorite.  While things can (and will) change, this represents the second biggest play right now left in the bowl season (Pitt over UCLA is still number 1 at 7 units).

@HooAlum

 Good win by Air Force put us in good footing for bowl season.  Her is a summary of the other games at present.

BOWL RECORD: 7-5

OVERALL RECORD:143-119 (54.58%)

BOWL REVENUE: 53.2 units won on 39 units wagered

OVERALL REVENUE: 867.1 units won on 773 units wagered (12.17% profit)

FRIDAY

Houston (2 units): low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering and reverse movement outweighs sharp indicators

Wake Forest (1 unit): sharp indicator

SATURDAY

Middle Tennessee St-San Diego St (NO Bet):

MONDAY DECEMBER 26

Bowling Green (2 units): Sharp indicators

TUESDAY DECEMBER 27

Georgia Southern (1 unit): sharp indicator

Memphis (1 unit): sharp indicator

Coastal Carolina: (1 unit): steam, line movement outweighs sharp indicator

Oklahoma St-Wisconsin (No Bet)

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 28

Duke (4 units): line movement and sharp indicators

Kansas (2 units): sharp indicators outweigh low ticket favorite

Oregon (3 units): line movement, sharp indicators outweighs double digit underdog

Texas tech-Ole Miss (No Bet)

THURSDAY DECEMBER 29

Syracuse (2 unit): Over/under squeeze & bowl heavy underdog outweighs harp indicator & Line movement

Florida St (2 unit): sharp indicators and line movement

Washington-Texas (No Bet)

FRIDAY DECEMBER 30

NC State (2 1/2 units): Line movement, sharp indicators outweighs SKS

Pitt (7 units): steam, line movement, west coast team early start and sharp indicator

Notre Dame (1 1/2 unit): low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs line movement

Wyoming (4 units): line movement and sharp indicators

Clemson (4 units): low ticket favorite, SKS and sharp indicators outweigh line movement

SATURDAY DECEMBER 31

Alabama (2 units): steam, line movement, outweighs bowl snub

Kentucky-Iowa (No Bet)

Michigan (1/2 unit): SKS outweighs sharp indicators

Ohio St (4 units): lopsided wagering and sharp indicators

MONDAY DECEMBER 2

Illinois (2 1/2 unit): SKS and sharp indicator outweighs reverse movement 

Tulane (3 units): sharp indicators and bowl snub outweighs line movement 

LSU (5 units): Steam, line movement and sharp indicators outweigh bowl large spread

Penn St-Utah (No Bet)

@HooAlum

 Bowl Games today.  Not much change from last night.  Wake is about to go from being favored by 2 to 2.5.  Don't know if that number is a inflection point for folks.  I could see both favorites gain a unit (sharps more for Houston and line movement for Wake) but for now each is at 2.

Houston (2 units): low ticket favorite, line movement & reverse movement outweighs sharp indicators

Wake Forest (2 units): sharp indicators

@HooAlum

 GL My Guy..

@HooAlum

Late indicators are facilitating back and forth as One movement will occur due to sharp indicators on Middle Tennessee St, then those sharp indicators will pull back and the line goes back to no movement.  Regardless, one indicator appears to always be in place for a very modest 1 unit play on the Blue Raiders tonight. Might as well grab it at MTSU (+7) and not (+6.5) is the amount will be the same.

As a note for record keeping purposes, yesterday's Houston game was not a  Houston win at 6.5 but a "no bet" as that line movement gave an extra indicator to ULL those taking it off the board.  However, the same line movement from 2 to 2.5 for Wake added another indicator and raised the unit bet to 3 in a win so pretty much a wash. 

BOWL RECORDL: 8-5

OVERALL RECORD: 144-119 (54.75%)

BOWL REVENUE: 58.9 units on 42 wagered (40.24% profit)

OVERALL REVENUE: 872.8 units on 776 wagered (12.27% profit)

@HooAlum

A modest game has a modest play.  

Bowling Green for 1 unit due to mild sharp indicators.  The line has gone back and further between 3 and 3.5.  It sits at 3.5 right now (FanDuel has attractive (-102) at least).  I would wait and see if it goes back down to 3 somewhere.  

Thank you for these!

Update for upcoming games

@HooAlum

 Thanks as always Hoo!

@HooAlum

 Well, bowl season is back with 4 games and looked promising last night and it deems like every indicator pulled back (e.g. reverse movement in Memphis-Utah St). ECU-Coastal uses to be one of the biggest plays of the bowl season but all indicators lately have been ECU.  That leaves us with a bunch of 1 and 2 unit plays today so not a day to get rich.

Georgia Southern (2 units): line movement (it is going up fast) and sharp indicator

Utah St (1 unit): sharp indicator

Coastal Carolina (1 unit): steam, line movement outweighs sharp indicators

Wisconsin (2 units): line movement, sharp indicator

Hey I think you do great work. But how in the world is Georgia southern a play? The public is all over them. I don’t understand. 

@hugerick

 Thanks actually it was low 60s ticket count everywhere (MGM, DraftKings, vegasinsider composite).  That is not enough to trigger that indicator in my analysis.  however, one (only 1)l report was that some sharp money came in on Georgia Southern where the handle indicated some heavy betting compared to tickets.  That was a very weak indicator, but when combined with the line movement toward Goergia Southern, showing the oddsmakers encouraging more Buffalo bets, that made it a modest 2 unit play.  Very modest (and a loser).  Memphis has a similar story as we speak as the weak sharp report looking like a loser as well.  Of course, only a 1 unit play. 

There is a way for you to im prove greatly.  1st you are running your analysis in poor timing.   If you wait to actually get your correct information, it will help you identify when you are right and when you have Identified correctly.
Also, continue to gain some experience. One must get to a place where you know the data before you read it.

Example,  any and all of your sharp indicators are irrelevant.  Hence why you have to switch games, Like Whisky, and you will end up doing the same on UCLA, couple others, where you have bad read, but know enough to make adjustment.  You are trying to read action incorrectly timed.

Carry on kids

@HooAlum

We finally have a few more exciting plays today and tonight starting off at 2pm.  Kansas line is moving off the 3 so get it while you can

Duke (4 units):line movement and string sharp indicators

Kansas (3 units): line movement and sharp indicators outweigh low ticket favorite

Oregon (2 units): sharp indicators outweigh double digit bowl underdog

Texas Tech (2 units): sharp indicators

@yknot

fair enough on timing.  I agree that closer to game time are the best reads.  I try my best to update closer to gametime when changes to the overall number occur.  However, if one waits for changes that do not occur and cannot scan a message board 15-30 minutes before game time to grab those changes due to life getting in the way, it is a wasted opportunity as I do disagree that early indicators are incorrect by nature.  Sometimes they morph and firm up but it is not worthless information by any stretch.  You can only report the data that actually has occurred.

Nevertheless, as a PSA, I would look to Coastal-ECU as a good example of what you are saying and validates your core point.  Coastal was a strong early play after the Chadwell announcement and line reaction.  However, things changed (especially on the sharp indicators) to where it was a minimal play and ECU easily covered.  Those who went with Coastal heavily early got burned proving your point on timing, which is valid.  The later you can make a decision, the better.

@HooAlum

Here is a comprehensive update for the rest of bowl season

TODAY

Duke (4 units):line movement and string sharp indicators

Kansas (3 units): line movement and sharp indicators outweigh low ticket favorite

Oregon (2 units): sharp indicators outweigh double digit bowl underdog

Texas Tech (2 units): sharp indicators

TOMORROW

Syracuse (2 units): (this one is VERY volatile) over/under squeeze, double digit bowl underdog outweighs line movement and sharp indicator

Oklahoma-Florida St (No Bet): lopsided wagering canceled out by line movement and sharp indicator

Texas (2 units): low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp indicator and line movement

FRIDAY

NC State (4 units): (this one has a lot of story to tell given the thing is jumping the fence) sharp indicators and line movement

Pitt (4 units): Early Start for west coast team, line movement outweighs sharp indicators

Notre Dame (1/2 unit): SKS outweighs line movement

Wyoming (2 units): line movement and sharp indicator

Clemson (4 units): SKS, low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs line movement

SATURDAY

Alabama (3 units): steam, line movement and sharp indicator outweighs bowl snub

Kentucky-Iowa (No Bet)

Michigan (1/2 unit): SKS outweighs sharp indicator

Ohio St (4 units): lopsided wagering and sharp indicators

MONDAY

Illinois (2 1/2 units): SKS, sharp indicators outweigh reverse movement

Tulane (5 units): sharp indicators, bowl snub

LSU (3 units): steam, sharp indicators outweighs bowl double digit underdog and lopsided wagering

Penn St-Utah (No Bet): low ticket favorite and sharp indicators balance out 

I thought Pitt was 7 units ???  

@HooAlum

 Bump up Kansas a unit and reduce Oregon a unit but both are still favored. Ole Miss major moves on sharp action for a 3 unit play reverses Texas Tech.

TOMORROW

Syracuse (2 units): (has firmed up compared to last night) over/under squeeze, double digit bowl underdog outweighs line movement and sharp indicator

Florida St (1 unit): line movement and sharp indicator outweighs lopsided wagering

Texas (2 units): low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp indicator and line movement