Public Indicators Calculations

@HooAlum

Had some nice tells come in to raise the stakes for today's games (and in future games)

Syracuse (4 units): over/under squeeze, double digit bowl underdog, sharp indicator outweighs line movement (watching low ticket favorite as some have Minnesota under 50, some have them right there, if you are cautious on that score then remove a unit from Syracuse)

Oklahoma-Florida St (No Bet): line movement and sharp indicators outweigh lopsided wagering and double digit bowl underdog

Texas (3 units): lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, and SKS outweigh line movement and sharp indicators

I'll post more comprehensively later today/tonight but a bunch of new info came in to where NC State, Clemson, Tulane and LSU all are 6 unit plays some of the highest of the bowl season.  

As asked, Pitt is still la solid play at 3 units but as predicted by one poster many of the numbers have pulled back toward the Bruins (though if the lopsided wagering come in on Pitt - it is close to my 75% benchmark - it becomes a nice big play again)

Can u talk alittle more about the circumstances in the Syracuse game around the over under squeeze 

Never bad to get a lucky backdoor cover.  As a note, lopsided wagering went away near the end.  Thus it turned to a modest Seminole 1 unit play.  

Over-under squeeze is in place as the spread was very high (10.5/11) but the total was low 44.5.  That means something likely has to give where if Syracuse scores a mere 17 points, one of the two is busted no matter what.

During the year it has hit at a very profitable 60.63% rate.

@HooAlum

TONIGHT

Texas (3 units): slight bump up as low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp indicator and line movement

FRIDAY

NC State (6 units): steam, sharp indicators and line movement

Pitt (3 units): Early Start for west coast team, line movement outweighs sharp indicators (watch lopsided wagering as it could increase the Pitt value)

Notre Dame (1 1/2 unit): SKS

Wyoming-Ohio (no bet): line movement balanced by sharp indicator

Clemson (4 units): SKS, low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs line movement

SATURDAY

Alabama (3 units): steam, line movement and sharp indicator outweighs bowl snub

Iowa (1 unit):sharp indicator

Michigan (1/2 unit): SKS outweighs sharp indicator

Ohio St (4 units): lopsided wagering and sharp indicators

MONDAY

CHANGE!!!: Mississippi St (3 units): line movement, steam, low ticket favorite outweighs sharp indicator (jumping the fence did a lot here)

Tulane (7 1/2 units): heavy sharp indicators SKS and bowl snub

LSU (6 units): steam, sharp indicators, line movement outweighs bowl double digit underdog

Utah (1 unit): low ticket favorite

@HooAlum

Still waiting on some last minute items but as we approach here is an update

TODAY

NC State (6 units): SAME

Pitt (2 units): continues to shrink as line movement is now in UCLA's favor.  Early Start for west coast team outweighs sharp indicators and line movement

Notre Dame (2 1/2 unit): SKS & sharp indicators

Wyoming (1 unit): more sharp indicators outweigh line movement (could easily go back to no bet)

Clemson (4 units): SAME

@HooAlum

 Thanks, Hoo!

@HooAlum

Late line movement affecting multiple games. We all saw Notre Dame for and bump up there (and a winner making up some of the disaster that was the 6 unit NC State play) same thing toward Tennessee reducing Clemson a unit.  Clemson is still the pick but is less.

:-(

@HooAlum

Well, NC State (and to a lesser extent Clemson) made for a down day but thanks to the Irish and Pitt (I guess you should have bet that 7 units early) it was not a disaster

BOWL RECORD: 15-14 (51.72%)

SEASON RECORD: 151-128 (54.12%)

BOWL REVENUE: 99.8 units on 85 wagered (17.41% profit)

SEASON REVENUE: 913.7 units on 819 wagered (11.56% profit)

SATURDAY

Alabama (2 units): steam, line movement outweighs bowl snub

Iowa (2 unit): Line movement and sharp indicator

Michigan (1 1/2 unit): SKS

Ohio St (3 units):reverse movement (I am sure you all saws the classic one today from 6.5 to 6 despite UGA having both tickets and handle count) & sharp indicators

MONDAY

Mississippi St (2 units): line movement, steam outweighs sharp indicator

Tulane (11 1/2 units): yes, you read that right.  It makes me nervous but every tell in the book practically is pointing there with heavy sharp indicators SKS, early start time for west coast team and bowl snub.  We shall see if this continues.

LSU (6 units): steam, sharp indicators, line movement outweighs bowl double digit underdog

Penn St-Utah (No Bet): low ticket favorite balanced by sharp indicators

What websites do you use to get all your info? 

@HooAlum

 Only overnight change for the early games was bump up for Iowa of a single unit

@HooAlum

 Ohio St slowly edging up due to the line movement. 

@HooAlum

 What does edging up mean?

@ABLP0609

twitter, vegasinsider, sport insights, props.com, the spread & VSIN are all common ones as well as the specific websites of books like DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars/WilliamHill, Wynn, MGM, PointsBet etc . . .

@HooAlum

Final day of bowls tomorrow.  Here is an update (by the way sorry about not being clear, "edging up" for Ohio St meant the bet total was edging up due to was to the line movement, thus they were a 5 unit play, not a 4 unit play - not a huge difference, but a winning one)

BOWL RECORD: 18-15 (54.54%)

OVERALL RECORD: 154-129 (54.42%)

BOWL REVENUE: 118.8 won on 96.5 wagered (23.11% profit)

OVERALL REVENUE: 932.7 won on 830.5 wagered (12.31% profit)

@HooAlum

Here is the first morning report.  I may have one more but do not expect wild swings (though I am watching to see if Utah-Penn St jumps the fence).  Changes would be a unit or so either direction as the cake is getting baked.

@HooAlum

Here is the first morning report.  I may have one more but do not expect wild swings (though I am watching to see if Utah-Penn St jumps the fence).  Changes would be a unit or so either direction as the cake is getting baked.

@HooAlum

 BTW, may want to grab Mississippi St now if you can still get at 3.  It is going to 3.5 everywhere.  This is a significant amount of movement step by step over the weekend as you could have gotten at 1 as recently as Saturday

@HooAlum

 Really like your P I C......pinnacle has gone to 2 and O/U 66   Tulane+2 vs USC....Miss st -3.5

Thanks for all u do! Happy New Year

@HooAlum

 Sharp plays have come in on Mississippi St making it now a strong 5 unit Mississippi St play

@HooAlum

 Penn St about to jump the fence.  The twill have a strong impact in favor of the Nittney Lions.

@HooAlum

 TULANEEEEEEE

@HooAlum

A strong (and lucky) finish that should have been 2-1-1 (or 2-2 depending where you grabbed Mississippi St) with one large unit win and 1 modest win turning into a series of large unit wagers that arose from LSU's blowout, Tulane's dramatic last second win, Penn St jumping the fence to dramatically increase the unit value and then 2nd half domination of Utah, and of course the biggest "bad" beat/"luck" win in a few years with Mississippi St's throwaway pick 6 as time expired.

BOWL RECORD: 22-15 (59.46%)

OVERALL RECORD: 158-129 (55.05%)

BOWL REVENUE: 169.2 units on 123 wagered (37.56% profit)

OVERALL RECORD: 983.1 units on 859 wagered (14.71% profit)

One game left and early signs are on Georgia (2 units): low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering outweigh early sharp movement