Posted:
#1
1
Flawed Logic: and Bad Decisions: NFL Edition
Posted:
#2
I’m not getting involved with any of the early games today. I’m going to break down the late card and see if we can get ahold of one winner. Might even mix in a baseball game depending on what I find.
We definitely need to secure a bag today.
Jacksonville at Denver
Las Vegas at LA Chargers
Washington at Dallas
Seattle at Arizona
Miami at San Francisco
Let’s see if I can find an edge
4
Posted:
#6
Jacksonville/Denver is one I’m definitely looking into.
One team looked really good last week and the other looked like complete shit, but what has my attention is the number. My book is usually pretty sharp and they’ve got Jacksonville +2.5 -101 and Denver -2.5 -119.
They’re still making me pay a premium on Denver instead of just moving it to 3. That usually gets my attention. There’s probably a little more going on here than just what everybody saw last week.
0
Posted:
#7
Raiders/Chargers
My book has Las Vegas +6.5 -105 and the Chargers -6.5 -115. Nothing crazy there, but there’s definitely a little extra tax on LA.
The bigger thing for me is the injury stuff. There are a couple of guys on both sides that could change how I look at this game, so I’m not getting too far ahead of myself yet.
I want to see the inactives, watch what the number does, and then dig back into it.
0
Posted:
#8
Washington/Dallas is another one I’m keeping on the board.
My book has Dallas -4 -107 and Washington +4 -113, and Pinnacle is sitting right around the same number. That gets my attention because Dallas didn’t exactly look great last week, but the market is still making them lay 4 at home.
0
Posted:
#9
Seattle/Arizona is another one I’m watching pretty closely.
My book has Arizona +4.5 -125 and Seattle -4.5 +105. Pinnacle is sitting Seattle -4 +101 and Arizona +4 -112.
That extra half point on Arizona is getting taxed pretty hard at my book, so there’s definitely something in the number worth paying attention to.
0
Posted:
#12
Miami/San Francisco is the last one I’m keeping an eye on.
My book has Miami +13.5 -105 and San Francisco -13.5 -115. Pinnacle is sitting Miami +13.5 -110 and San Francisco -13.5 even money.
That’s a pretty big number, but both books are basically agreeing on where the game should be. My book is just charging a little more on San Francisco.
Definitely one I want to keep digging into before I decide whether that number is justified.
1
Posted:
#14
I’m going to watch the line movement for a little bit and see how everything develops.
These are 1:00 games, so the inactive lists will be out about an hour and a half before kickoff, and that’s going to matter on a couple of them.
I definitely have stronger opinions on each game, I just don’t see any reason to put them out there yet.
At the end of the day, we don’t need all these fucking games. We need one. That’s it. Find one and get it done.
1
Posted:
#15
Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:
I’m not getting involved with any of the early games today. I’m going to break down the late card and see if we can get ahold of one winner. Might even mix in a baseball game depending on what I find. We definitely need to secure a bag today. Jacksonville at Denver Las Vegas at LA Chargers Washington at Dallas Seattle at Arizona Miami at San Francisco Let’s see if I can find an edge
I’m not getting involved with any of the early games today. I’m going to break down the late card and see if we can get ahold of one winner. Might even mix in a baseball game depending on what I find. We definitely need to secure a bag today. Jacksonville at Denver Las Vegas at LA Chargers Washington at Dallas Seattle at Arizona Miami at San Francisco Let’s see if I can find an edge
This is a strategey I like alot. The game start times help to narrow down a play on 4-5 games. Not 13. Tough to cap one game. Deciding to make a choice on much less games makes sense. Best of luck today.
0
Hot Forum Topics
