Public Indicators Calculations

Thanks for the report last night. Betted tcu for +14 currently for normal size wager and then will reevaluate how the line looks when it’s closer to game day. Figure line will just keep going down

Hoo,

Thank you Brother. Your info has been gold this year. I have a rudimentary system similar to yours and most weeks, I can anticipate where your final picks are going to land.

However, THANK YOU for turning me on to Patrick Everston. His data has been invaluable.

Thanks again - already looking forward to September!

@HooAlum

 Over the last day or so a nice thing has popped up: reverse movement.  The tell is over 60% this year and went in favor of the Georgia Bulldogs for tonight.  Meanwhile, line movement and sharp peeled away from TCU and even are now backing Georgia at -13.  While lopsided wagering went away supporting the Bulldogs (that was entirely expected, no national title game should have the uneven ticket count against the favorite that this one had) it is still a low ticket favorite.  All that adds up to a very respectable 5 unit play.  Things of course can change in the next few hours but that is where we stand right now.

@HooAlum

 What’s the play?

@HooAlum

 sharp indicators have grown.  Georgia 6 units. In you can still grab at 13 do now (I already did).  Most are at 13.5.

@HooAlum

 and like that a few more sharp plays come in heavy on Georgia.  It is now up to 7 a unit play.  2nd highest of the bowl season

never trust anyone who says “betted.”

@Contrarian21

stop correcting people Mr. "you're" picks suck. (see laughable older posts)  Learn what a possessive pronoun is you troll before you correct people's grammar.  

It isn't even me who you are correcting, but another poster.  Nevertheless, I have to comment as I find worthless posts like yours such a distraction from the real purpose of this forum: people sharing insights the best they can so hopefully others can win money, which if you read and acted on the actual post tonight instead of delivering worthless snarky commentary, you would have done.  

Congrats to all of the Georgia fans and bettors.  I look forward to 2023 college football next September already. 

@HooAlum

WOOP WOOOOP!! 

Good stuff rockin n rollin all year lol figured the public indicator guy woulda had this one figured out .. well done finished off the year w a BANG!!!! 

Great year! You got on my radar late in the season but can’t wait to read and learn from your thread in the fall! Do you only do CFB? Cheers 

@HooAlum

 Thank you so much for a wonderful 2022 season. Appreciate you

Good stuff.

@HooAlum

Time for a fun summary of the year.  I unfortunately have only tested this on college football and college basketball over the years as they are my passion.  My college basketball simply has not developed to what I like and so do not provide it anymore.  I may eventually do NFL as football clearly is the best sport for this system regarding its scoring consistency.  However, adding the NFL is time consuming and I do this without a personal monetary so I just do not have the time to put myself into it even if it is the most watched sport. (I also have done NASCAR but the most important statistical component was taken away from me when they no longer held extended practice for each race after COVID).

This was a very productive season and bowl season was very strong for the second straight year.

BOWL SEASON RECORD: 23-15 (60.53%)

BOWL SEASON REVENUE: 184.4 units on 131 wagered (40.76% profit!!)

SEASON RECORD: 158-129 (55.05%)

SEASON REVENUE: 998.3 units on 865 wagered (15.41% profit)

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE (this will guide how I start next season off on weights)

West Coast team Early Eastern Start Time - 100%!!!! (3.5-0) - though to be fair Tulane got quite lucky against Southern Cal.

Reverse Movement: 65.22%; Positive Reverse Movement 66.67%; Negative Reverse Movement 64.52%

Over/Under Squeeze: 61.03%

SKS: 60.19% (line does not align with public ranking)

Steam Movement: 59.26%

Bye Week Return: 59.26%; augmentation 62.5%

Sharp Indicator (sharp reports of betting patterns): 59.12%; 56.84% straight up before augmentation (remember when this was around 30% in late September!! What a turnaround.  I learned one lesson that I applied, half the value in the regular season and ratchet it up in bowl season and more action is on each game)

Lopsided Wagering: 57.50%; lopsided wagering on an away favorite 53.85%

Line Movement: 57.35%; positive line movement 57.52%, negative line movement 56.84%

Low Ticket Favorite: 50.59% (longtime successful tell at 53.32% over the last 4 years but definitely will be deemphasized though it was a great tell on Georgia)

Style Points: 50%

Blowout Response: 38.46% (measured but not used)

See you guys next fall!!!!

@HooAlum

 Excellent stuff Hoo.

Counting down the months till September.