Public Indicators Calculations

Alright, the Pratt injury did create what I will call a steam move (it stair stepped over the 12 o'clock hour but given the injury I am going with it).

That flips the call from Tulane 1 unit to Houston 2 units as sharps also have left the Green Wave.  I know with the line moving upward it is like catching a falling knife but still likely worth it.

UCLA has inched up to a 2 unit play as some interesting late sharp action has come in.  I could see it slip back to 1 unit before kickoff.

@HooAlum

 Saturday morning update after a disappointing 1-1 Friday (disappointing in that I like many were suckered into thinking Houston had a competent offense to take advantage to the Tulane QB injury - at least UCLA was rock solid).

I expect as always happens a little late sharp action to alter some of these closer to gametime

Noon

Iowa (3 units) - over/under squeeze

Ole Miss (10.5!!!!!!) - down from highs earlier in the week but still strong: low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, positive reverse movement, , & SKS.  

Kansas St (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Navy (3 units) - over/under squeeze

TCU (2 units) - sharp indicators

Purdue (4 units) - negative reverse movement, over/under squeeze

Illinois-Wisconson - conflicting indicators of low ticket favorite and blowout response

Utah (1 units) - sharp indicator

Alabama (3 units) - low ticket favorite

Michigan St-Maryland - No bet (conflicting indicators of low ticket favorite and blowout response)

Florida St (5 units) - low ticket favorite, SKS

Baylor (1.5 units) - sharp indicator and SKS outweighs bye week return

Iowa St (1 units) - sharp indicator

Mississippi St (8.5 units) - strong SKS, positive reverse movement, sharp indicator

Auburn-LSU - No Bet

Clemson (1 unit) - low ticket favorite outweighs sharp indicator

Texas (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Stanford (1 units) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator

I'll try my best to update games closer to gametime 

@HooAlum

 Noon

There were indeed some late moves I the hour or so before kickoff.  The one big one of note as the line had major steam in Purdue-Minnesota (+12 to +10).  Hopefully you saw what was happening and added to the strong Boilers play that already existed

Noon

Iowa (1 unit) - over/under squeeze outweighs low bet favorite

Ole Miss (8.5 units) - still strong but lopsided wagering reduced down from highs earlier in the week but still strong: low ticket favorite, positive reverse movement, , & SKS.  

Kansas St (2 units) -same

Navy (1 unit) - over/under squeeze outweighs low bet favorite

TCU (2 units) - same

Purdue (8.5 units) - this is the big move as major steam hit to go with negative reverse movement, over/under squeeze

Illinois-Wisconson - same

Utah (1 unit) - same small, but persistent, sharp indicator

Midday slate

Alabama (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Michigan St (1 unit)- Blowout response and sharp indicator outweighs low ticket favorite

Florida St (6 units) - low ticket favorite, SKS, and sharp indicator

Baylor (1.5 units) - same

Iowa St (1 units) - same

Mississippi St (9.5 units) - strong SKS, positive reverse movement, sharp indicator

Ole miss 

Rough day

@HooAlum

evening games

Auburn-LSU still no bet

Clemson (2 units) - same

Big change - West Virginia the beneficiary of steam this morning (more steam this weekend than the rest of the season combined) so it is now West Virginia (2 units) - Steam outweighs low ticket favorite

@hoyoonie

 Ole miss was a killer but the rest of the morning was 5-1 (including Purdue with a nice total).  The afternoon is the exact opposite.  It looks like it will be a loser W-L but Mississippi St looks like it will  possibly bring some back.  (the Noles are not helping though).  I think the overall week may end up breakeven or up depending how the night goes and if the bulldogs continue to cover against the Aggies.

@HooAlum

 Tonight’s game very modest action. 1 unit was n SMU via a small sharp indicator. Line just moved to +3

@HooAlum

Weekly Update & Preview.  Had some big games hit but one notable miss (most prominent involving the Mississippi schools). All in all it was a modest (very modest) gain for the week.

Weekly Record: 9-10

Overall Season Record: 57-52 (52.29%)

Weekly Revenue: 53.5 units bet with 56.1 units won (net 2.6 units)

Season Revenue: 309 units bet 330 units won (net 21 units - 6.8% profit)

Weekly Games

Friday

Nebraska (1 unit) - sharp indicator

Houston-Memphis - No Bet

Saturday Noon

TCU (7 units) - sharp indicator and heavy SKS

Mississippi St (6 units) - heavy SKS

Tennessee (1 unit) - Bye week return

Texas (1 unit) - steam and sharp indicator outweighs blowout response

Indiana (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Georgia (2 units) - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite (really? Against Georgia?) outweighs over/under squeeze

UCLA (1 unit) - reverse movement outweighs sharp indicator

Oklahoma St (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Michigan St (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Miami (5 units) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, negative line movement, and bye week return

Southern Cal (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Notre Dame (5 units) - sharp indicator, SKS, and bye week return

Boston College (3 units) - over/under squeeze

Texas A&M (2 units) - over/under Squeeze

*******************

Indicator Performance to date

Western team early Eastern start: 100% (1-0- four year average is 70.83%)

SKS (ranking and point spread do not line up): 69.7%

Bye Week Return: 66.67% (bye week road/home competitive game 100% (2-0))

Low Bet Favorite: 62.07% (positive movement 62.5%, negative movement 40%, no movement 82.35%)

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.33%

Reverse movement: 57.14% (positive reverse movement 75%, negative reverse movement 52.94%)

Line movement (measured not applied): 51.39% (positive 61.7%, negative 34.48%) 

Sharp Indicator: 50.42% (this has come on strong as it was low 40s to start the year)

Blowout Response: 50%

Lopsided wagering: 41.18% (line movement opposite as lopsided 40%, movement the same 0% (0-1), No line movement 50%, lopsided wagering on large under dog 46.15%, lopsided wagering on road favorite 33%)

Steam: 33.33% (rough week last week we will see if Oklahoma-Texas recovers the normally strong tell - 4 year record of 57.55% - of course this might be due to using a different data source than VI which showed the best minute by minute line movement)

What do you mean by Over / Under Squeeze? 

@HooAlum

 Good luck

@hooalum

Thx as always.... you always wait till game time to place bet right?? Sometimes I wonder if I should jump on those heavy SKSs early

@HooAlum

 Friday is still no bet in Rutgers-Nebraska 

Sharp indicators supporting Houston, see if you can still grab at least +2.5 (I think +3 is gone everywhere as +2 is in most places).  Just as a note, yes I realize this is the second week in a row picking Houston on a Friday and last week did not turn out so well.  I myself have no faith in the Cougs but the numbers say different.

@HooAlum

 Here is tomorrow's summary as I watch Houston completely blow 3 plays at the 1 yard line to pull within point spread range.  I really do not like these guys.  

I hope to have another update tomorrow morning as overnight lines and betting come in and change things but I already know I'll be away for the most important 2 hours of 10am-noon.  I will report what changes occurred (there always are some and they usually are very important and will put in parenthesis some guesses on that). The most common two changes are lopsided wagering evening out and late breaking sharp indicators.  On the latter I follow a number of folks on twitter but my favorite is Patrick Everson (former contributor to covers.com now of vegasinsider) who has a very insightful "tweet storm" from 10am to noon.  I encourage folks to look at it as some of my sharp calls I have that I will report mid afternoon and after the noon starts stem from that. 

Had one person ask about an over/under squeeze and it is pretty simple in theory.  A low total is combined with a high spread (Georgia-Auburn is a classic this weekend.  If Auburn scores a mere 11 points - even through the backdoor - then either the total or the spread has to give.  Often both do.)

Noon

TCU (8 units) - sharp indicator and heavy SKS

Mississippi St (8 units) - sharp indicator and heavy SKS

Purdue-Maryland - No Bet

Missouri-Florida - No Bet

LSU-Tennessee - No bet - Bye week return & sharp indicators balance out

Oklahoma (1 unit) - blowout response outweighs sharp indicator (steam went away as line has gone back toward Sooners)

Indiana (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Afternoon

Georgia (2 units) - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

UCLA-Utah - No Bet  (reverse movement went away)

Oklahoma St (2 units) - low ticket favorite (watch this as they are about to longer be a low ticket)

Michigan St (2 units) - lopsided wagering (I bet it goes away tomorrow as it is right on the edge that I measure)

Miami (5 units) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, negative line movement, and bye week return

Evening

Illinois (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Southern Cal (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Notre Dame (6 units) - sharp indicator, SKS, and bye week return

Boston College (3 units) - over/under squeeze

Florida St_NC State - Ne Bet

Texas A&M (2 units) - over/under Squeeze

Late Night

Oregon St (1 unit) - Sharp indicator outweighs steam movement

Two questions, 1- Are the higher unit bets winning at a higher rate and 2- What the heck does SKS stand for? Thanks 

@haymo

OK maybe I do like Houston after all.  A 19 point comeback in the 4th is pretty nice.

SKS is shorthand for the public rankings and the point spread do not align

@HooAlum

 Last update this morning as I mentioned last night.  Amazingly no big changes.  The total dropped enough in Alabama-Texas A&M to add a unit to the Aggies from 2 to 3.  Everything else was really calm.  I assume a lot of line movement is being saved for late morning and apologize in advance for not being able to report on it in a timely fashion.  Ince again, be wary of investing too much in lopsided movement.  Both Michigan, Ohio St, Auburn and North Carolina are right at the pivot point to balance out but for now it is still there so take with your own assessment.  Once again, here is what I have.

@haymo

 1. The higher units are usually given to the games that have a combination of indicators that hit at higher rates currently, it looks like his model is constantly adapting.

2. SKS, when teams ranking and point spreads do not line up

@HooAlum

 Morning is either up big or up modestly breakeven based on this TCU-Kansas game.  The tells stayed the same amazingly as things flew back ab=nd forth but no net change on spreads.

Afternoon

Georgia (1 units) - low ticket favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

Utah (2 units) - Sharp Indicators

Oklahoma St (2 units) - low ticket favorite (watch this as they are about to longer be a low ticket)

Michigan St-Ohio St - No Bet  (2 units) - lopsided wagering went away as predicted

Miami (5 units) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, negative line movement, and bye week return

What does sharp indicatior and all that jargon mean?

Sharp indicator means sharps are betting on it?

and what's low ticket mean? Not a lot of people are betting on it right

@HooAlum

Mediocre/poor afternoon after good morning.  Evening will determine the week.  Yes, low ticket favorite means the public is shying away in total bets from the favorite.  Usually the public supports the favorite.

Evening

Illinois (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Southern Cal (1 units) - sharp indicator (I really like this more)

Notre Dame (4 units) - SKS and bye week return

Boston College (4 units) - over/under squeeze & sharp indicator

Florida St_NC State - Ne Bet

Texas A&M (3 units) - over/under Squeeze