Public Indicators Calculations

@HooAlum

 Noon Update

Baylor-Texas St has gone to no bet

Nebraska 3.5 units - no change

Syracuse 4.5 units - Line movement has added to reverse movement and sharps

South Carolina 2 units - back to lopsided UGA wagering

@HooAlum

You are the man! I love the info, appreciate what you do big time!

BOL today!

Mediocre morning and midday.  Good wins like Oregon (biggest call of the day), bad late calls to reinstall South Carolina and move up Georgia Tech.

Here is the update on games in progress and upcoming games

Liberty (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Mississippi St (6 units) - big bump up due to late reverse movement join gin the3low ticket favorite with positive  line movement and sharp indicator

NC State (3 units) - low ticket favorite & sharp indicators

Washington (7.5 units) - low ticket favorite, SKS, & sharp indicators

Western Michigan (1/2 unit) - sharp indicator

SMU (2 units) - reverse movement

UTSA (3 units) - sharp indicators

TexasA&M (9 units) - low ticket favorite with positive line movement, reverse movement and SKS

San Diego St-Utah (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balances sharp movement

Fresno St (4 units) reverse movement and sharp indicators (as a note ,the trojans have burned me twice already this year so very wary on this one)

BTW, Texas A&M still the strong play.  It is going to 6.5 most everywhere so grab the 6 where you can find it.

@HooAlum

 I appreciate you. 

@HooAlum

 I appreciate you. 

@HooAlum

OK so week 1 was a loser, week 2 was a winner and week 3 was right at break even (bad record decent unit allocation) so I guess week 4 will tell the tale.  Still inside the vig in regards to profit margin.  Regression analysis says pull back on sharp indicators as they have performed (or at least my analysis of them) has performed badly so far.

OVERALL RECORD: 35-36 (49.3%)

OVERALL PROFIT: 203.5 units bet; 200.7 units won (-1.38%)

Here is the early look at indicators but I guess it is late since we have a Thursday game.  Once again these indicators can go away.  Lopsided wagering inevitably does in about 2/3 the cases

Thursday

Virginia Tech (1.5 units) - sharp indicators

Friday

Virginia (6 units) - lopsided wagering, reverse movement sharp play (and on the verge of an over/under squeeze which would also benefit the Hoos).  I just want to say that I have seen both teams play all year.    Virginia's new offensive scheme blows.  It has taken one of the top returning quarterbacks statistically in the country with 4 amazing options (albeit a poor OL) and made the offense pedestrian.  I do not see how Virginia keeps it within 2 touchdowns in the Carrier Dome so while the numbers say Virginia, my head is elsewhere.  This I fear will look more like the Illinois game for Virginia.  Meanwhile Syracuse has caught fire this year.  They are for real in terms of being good (not great but good).

Saturday

Noon

Maryland (2 units) - lopsided wagering

SMU (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Kansas (1 unit) - sharp indicator

Iowa St (3.5 units) - low ticket favorite and SKS

Wake (4 units) - lopsided wagering with road favorite and sharp indicator

Minnesota (4.5 units) - strong SKS

Cincinnati (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Notre Dame (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Tennessee (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Appalachian St (1 unit) - low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

Texas Tech (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Washington St (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Texas A&M (3.5 units) - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp indicators

Iowa (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Wisconsin (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator

Kansas St (2 units) - Over/Under Squeeze

Oregon St (5 units) - lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp indicators (this is the FOURTH TIME the numbers have cur strongly against Southern Cal - I do not know why they hate Lincoln Rley's club but so far in 2022 it shouldn't - as I said last week in a similar situation buyer beware)

Arizona St (4 units) - lopsided wagering and over.under squeeze

*************

Indicator performance to date

Early start for western team playing in eastern location: 100% (1-0)

SKS: 83.33% (a return to glory and saving the season so far)

Low Bet Favorite:56.25%

Reverse Movement: 50%

Over/Under squeeze: 54.29%

Steam: 50% (1-1)

Line movement (Measured but only used as a supplement to other indicators): 48.08%; positive 66.67%; negative 15.79%!!!

Lopsided wagering: 46.15% (as road favorite 50%)

Sharp Indicators: 42.55% (poor record will hopefully improve)

@HooAlum

 So you’re saying Virginia, but you think it’ll be a repeat of the Illinois game? But still taking Virginia??

@hoyoonie

 The system says Virginia.  I personally do not like the pick as I think the OC has his head up his rear end given the talent on hand that he wastes because it does not fit his system.  (Hey!  You have a great receiving core and a top QB with a poor OL and no running back.  I have a great idea let's become Wisconsin and run the ball right up the middle as our philosophy!!!  STUPID!!!!!). BUT the smart guys that are not betting with their hearts say Virginia.  I report the numbers and hopefully it helps folks analyze the games. It is now 4 units, down from 6 but up from 3 earlier today:

Virginia (4 units) - Reverse movement, sharp indicator and a small over/under squeeze.  You can wait and get it at 10.  It is going there.  Already there at WynnBet & VSIN.

Air Force (3 units) - a lot of points but it has a low ticket favorite and sharp indicator so hopefully a blowout is on tap.  Get it at 24.  It is moving to 24.5.

@HooAlum

 You’re the fucking goat that’s all I know….

@HooAlum

 You’re the fucking goat that’s all I know….

@HooAlum

 Anyway I can Privately dm you?

@HooAlum

 Anyway I can Privately dm you?

@HooAlum

Here are the game Saturday after a 2-0 Friday night (or at least 2-0 for the indicators, while I was correct Virginia's offense was putrid, the defense played well and got 4 turnovers thus the Hoos got the cover thus the indicators were right)

Likely last comprehensive update as. Will update periodically through out Saturday.

Noon

Maryland (2 units) - lopsided wagering

SMU (3 units) - lopsided wagering with an away favorite

Kansas (1.5 units) - sharp indicator

Iowa St (3.5 units) - low ticket favorite and SKS

Wake-Clemson no bet

Minnesota (6.5 units) - low ticket favorite & strong SKS

Cincinnati (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Notre Dame-North Carolina - No Bet

Tennessee (3 units) - low ticket favorite & sharp indicator

Appalachian St (1 unit) - low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

Texas Tech (4.5 units) - lopsided road favorite and solid sharp indicators

Washington St (1 unit) - sharp indicator

Texas A&M (3.5 units) - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp indicators

Iowa (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Wisconsin-Ohio St -= No Bet (1 unit) 

Kansas St (2 units) - Over/Under Squeeze

Florida St (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Oregon St (6.5 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorites, reverse movement and sharp indicators (this is the FOURTH TIME the numbers have cur strongly against Southern Cal - I do not know why they hate Lincoln Riley's club but so far in 2022 it shouldn't - as I said last week in a similar situation buyer beware)

Stanford (2 units) - Reverse Movement

Arizona St (3 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite

Good week so far with profitable morning barring SMU's loss.  Afternoon is going well and Go Gophers!  Keep it up!  I think this week will likely make the overall year positive in the money column,  Oops jinxed it.

Texas A&M (4 units) - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp indicators

Iowa (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Wisconsin-Ohio St -= No Bet

Kansas St (2 units) - Over/Under Squeeze

Florida St (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Oregon St (3 units) - reverse movement and sharp indicators (prior huge bet has pulled back)

Stanford-Washington - No Bet

Arizona St (4 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite, over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

 Great week

I'll come out with the whole week preview later tonight but I was slow because there were no indicators on tonight's game . . . until 45 minutes ago.  A major steam move in favor of BYU so it is a 2 unit play on the Cougars.  Caesars and many others still have not caught up so you can get it at (-24).  Act now as it WILL go up in the next hour before gametime.

@HooAlum

 Should I took it at 26 just seen this

I still would if that is your only option.  This caught me totally by surprise.  I guess I am lucky I have a William Hill Caesars here.  Fan Duel also has not caught up fully though that 24 is REALLY nice.

@HooAlum

Here is this week's update and preview.  Last week was the best of the year (the kind of week that comes along once, maybe twice a season if you are lucky).   It turned a lackluster season into a winning one (for now).  It would have been higher had I not instituted a regression application on sharp indicators.  Sharp indicators entered the weekend barely above 40%.  Of course they reverted to the mean last week and were an astounding 9-1 (with less emphasis than the prior weeks so definitely some missed opportunity)

Weekly Record: 13-6 (68.4%)

Season record: 48-42 (53.33%)

Weekly Revenue: 73.2 on 52 wagered

Season Revenue: 273.9 on 255.5 wagered (profit of 7.2%)

WEEKEND

Thursday

BYU (2 units) - Steam

Tulane-Houston - No Bet

UCLA-Washington - No Bet

Iowa (3 units) - over/under squeeze

Ole Miss (14.5!!!!!!) - lot of stuff here: low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, positive reverse movement, sharp indicators, & SKS.  So far that is the largest single wager of the year.  Things change but it will almost assuredly stay a strong Ole Miss bet.

Texas Tech-Kansas - No bet

Navy (3 units) - over/under squeeze

TCU-Oklahoma - No Bet

Purdue (4 units) - lopsided wagering, over/under squeeze

Illinois-Wisconson - No bet

Utah (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Alabama (3 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Michigan St-Maryland - No bet (conflicting indicators of low ticket favorite and blowout response)

Florida St (5 units) - low ticket favorite, SKS

Baylor (1.5 units) - sharp indicator and SKS outweighs bye week return

Iowa St (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Mississippi St (4.5 units) - strong SKS

Auburn-LSU - No Bet

Clemson (1 unit) - low ticket favorite outweighs sharp indicator

Texas (2 units) - low ticket favorite

Stanford (2 units) - lopsided wagering

****************

Indicator performance to date (this allows you to make an educated assessment on the tells listed above)

Early start for traveling western team: 100% (1-0)

SKS (spread contrarian to public ranking): 83.33%

Low Bet Favorite: 62.5%

Team Coming off Bye Week: 60%

Over/Under Squeeze: 57.5%

Reverse Movement: 52.63%; (positive reverse 66.67%; negative reverse 50%)

Sharp indicators: 51.56%

Steam: 50%

Line Movement (recorded not used): 30-32 (48.39%); positive line movement (62.79%), negative line movement (21.74%)

Lopsided Wagering: 43.75% (lopsided wagering with large underdog - recorded not applied 46.15%; lopsided wagering on road favorite - recorded not applied anymore 33.33%)

Blowout Response (not yet applied but historically 54%; 57.5% in games with competitive point spread)

@HooAlum

 LETS GOOOOOO

@HooAlum

 Do you use twitter?

Get Em Hoo..

Glad to see Purdue on list as seems Minny is a darling to all.