Public Indicators Calculations

Results look very much like tossing a coin. LOL

Please keep posting your stuff.  Very interesting.

Could you possibly share with us what are some of your "sharp indicators" and do they involve line movement in any way.

Also, are you relying on any angles, trends etc?

As far as your consensus numbers, are you using one site for consensus data or are you combining numbers from multiple consensus sites?

Also, when it comes to your consensus, are you using "ticket counts" or are you using "cash counts" ? or both ?

Cool stuff indeed.  Just want to know more about what you are doing.

@HooAlum

 Needless to say, I will not hide for it.  It was a poor start, plain and simple.  However, you don't scrap things all at once so we will be back.In the meantime if you want to fade these, go ahead.  It would ahem worked last week  I'll continue to supply the data and you can do with it what you will.  Plus, every week is a new regression analysis and this week is no exception.  Here is the first update along with a recap.

OVERALL RECORD 15-16 (could be worse) last week 13-14

OVERALL PROFIT -14.6 units-19.86% LOSS (could not be much worse, as those that followed some big games did not come home) last week  - 17 units

Time to dig out of that early hole

Friday

Louisville - 2 units - Reverse movement and sharp indicator

Saturday Noon

Texas - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Vanderbilt - 1 unit - lopsided wagering on road favorite outweighs steam

Georgia St - 1 unit - sharp indicator

Northwestern - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Afternoon games

Colorado - 2 units - Over/under squeeze

Appalachian St - 3 units - sharp indicator and over/under Squeeze

Tennessee - 2 units - Sharp Indicator and SJKS outweighs lopsided wagering

Washington St - 5 units - lopsided wagering, Sharp indicator, over/under squeeze

Texas Tech - 2 units - SKS

Illinois - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Evening Games

Kentucky - 1 unit - sharp indicator

Arizona St - 2 units - sharp indicators

Stanford - 8 units - lopsided wagering on road favorite, reverse movement, strong sharp indicators,

Virginia Tech - 2.5 units - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs a sharp indicator

BYU - 11 UNITS - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering with positive movement, sharp indicators, & SKS

@combato

 Here are the answers to your questions

1. Could you possibly share with us what are some of your "sharp indicators" and do they involve line movement in any way. -

I follow a ton of folks on twitter that have shown good reports on sharps and have measured their performance over time to determine if they are real or a Charleton.  Once one of them makes a sharp report I then analyze the ticket count to handle ratio and movement.  But this leads to sometimes subjectivity on the numbers so week 1 I was overinclusive on games (Kentucky Miami Ohio and UTEP-Oklahoma being prime examples where sharp calls drove up unit bets and lost).  I have to see more solid reports going forward and will be more restrained in Week 2.

2. Also, are you relying on any angles, trends etc? -

I do a regression analysis every week on the betting trends and some get pulled back and some get more emphasized based on performance to date.  I like to see performance produce over at least a season before including it as a tells that counts.

3. As far as your consensus numbers, are you using one site for consensus data or are you combining numbers from multiple consensus sites?

I combine numbers from several different sites/books and make my own consensus data.  For example VI is a consensus but Draft Kings is a single book - I use both - I also look religiously at MGM, PointsBet, Caesars, Wynn, FanDuel, TwinSpires & VSIN- I will also pull from the individual books listed on VI such as SouthPoint and Golden Nugget if there is something that pops but not as religiously as the others) and willing to do more.  I really am not a fan of sports insights data so only look at them to make me consider a reverse movement call as the chart is nice and easy to read quickly as I am pouring through data. However, I have deemphasized reverse movement tells as a result since I just simply do not love and fully trust their data.

4. Also, when it comes to your consensus, are you using "ticket counts" or are you using "cash counts" ? or both ?

Both on most indicators.  ticket count only on determining a "low ticket favorite" as over the years that is a "public" play angle.

is 11 Units the largest possible play with your system?

@HooAlum

 Thank You !  Very informative.  I will be checking in on this thread on a regular basis

@beermugs

 no, it can go higher but this is outrageously high.  A bit of warning,.  The units are based on a snapshot in time.  There is a good chance it reduces (I probably should hold off on units until closer to post time).  For example, the lopsided wagering I bet goes away and evens out the closer we get to kickoff.  However, I think it is very safe to say BYU will remain on the side to pick given the numbers.

@beermugs

 BTW ,the lopsided wagering has gone away as more data points came in on BYU-Baylor.  In addition, the line movement stabilized so while it is still BYU by an impressive 7 units, it no longer is the extremely high 11 units.

Interesting stuff as always. Great info I will continue to follow. Good luck this week

OP, thank you so much for doing this :)

a few questions:

1) can you give some guidance on your O/U squeeze? i.e. what levels are you using?.... I guess maybe I'd myself gauge it as the expected number of points of the losing team.........

I think the first time I played this was (and these aren't exact numbers). Auburn -40 vs. Buffalo total 44. so the expectation was 40-2 Auburn. so if Buffalo kicks a FG, Buffalo will cover OR game goes OVER. Buffalo, with Khalil Mack and Turner Gill as HC, had a sneaky good team. covered easily

2) where do you get info for "low ticket favourite"... never heard of this indicator, but must be correlated to some others you mentioned (i.e. it's anti-public)?.. does this occur in big games or more obscure games? and do you grab the stats from earlier in the week? I would assume that this indicator stabilizes like crazy going into game time

3) are the "sharp indicators" based "tracking sharp action" or "sharp" as in "the indicators work well

I used to get the GoldSheet free from my Bloomberg terminal.. I loved their work and learned alot from them. also, their game write-ups made sense to me. too many other touts give so much info that suggests "Baylor is the play" and then at the last second go the reverse ("suckers play", "trap game" etc etc.)

GoldSheet was big on systems that they tracked........ one I really liked which is similar thinking to your "window dressing favorites" was "impotent favorites". top 25 type teams that don't cover the spread. basically they are top team because of defense. and you could do the opposite, mediocre/bad teams that cover more than expected (either can score some points, or more likely have a decent defense.. D > O )

I posted this in a muddled thread I started.

I saw that the opening line was very very sharp in week 1. hit at 71%..... hear so much about "the closing line is so efficient"... there's even a top academic paper out there that I think says that "the opening line" is better than "the closing line". very hard paper to read and my career involves reading alot of papers like that one

also, power ratings models have been awful. basically new information has NOT been discounted enough by the market.

I think I saw home, favourite and under have all hit big so far this year. do people think these trends would continue in a weakened way? or that it's noise? and of course, so many uncompetitive games week 1. alot fewer this week (I think)

@HooAlum

 Here is Friday Midday update (sometimes the last one with all potential games as I break the others down by time period.

Friday

Louisville - 2 units - Reverse movement and sharp indicator

Saturday Noon

Texas - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Georgia State - 2.5 units - sharp indicators

Northwestern - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

South Carolina - 1/2 unit - minor sharp indicator

Texas - 4 units - lopsided wagering, reverse movement

Wake Forest - 2 units - steam movement

Afternoon games

Tennessee - 2.5 units - reverse movement minor sharp indicator and SKS Rankings out of step with spread

Colorado - 2 units - over/under squeeze

Appalachian St - 3 units - sharp indicator and over/under Squeeze

Washington St - 5 units - lopsided wagering, Sharp indicator, over/under squeeze

Illinois - 1.5 units - low ticket favorite with negative movement

Texas Tech - 2 units - SKS

Iowa - 1.5 units - low ticket favorite with negative movement

Evening Games

Kentucky - 1 unit - sharp indicator

Stanford - 10 units - lopsided wagering on road favorite, reverse movement, very strong sharp indicators,

Virginia Tech - 2.5 units - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs a sharp indicator

Arizona St  - 1 unit - sharp indicator

Virginia Tech - 1/2 unit - low ticket favorite with negative line movement outweighs modest sharp indicator

BYU - 7.5 units - low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, & SKS

Mississippi st - 3 units - sharp indicators

On Over/under squeeze you pretty much got it.  Not enough points to go around.  The one additional feature is the spread is double digits so it is expected there will be scoring from at least one side putting it in play.

low ticket favorite is very simplistic.  It is based on teh fact the public will typically bet the favorite in volume.  When they do not it is indication that something is amiss.  If it is joined by line movement then it is a decent tell.  As you point out it is 60% so far this season BUT I do think it comes back down to its historical average which is in the 55%.  Still decent.  It's 3 year running average is 55.93%,

Your final point is extremely important.  While this early information is nice to analyze (and there ar a few games that already jump out), the stuff that comes up tomorrow is where the real differences are made.  For example a lot of these reverse movement calls can go away very easily with some line volatility back in the other direction.

Thx @HooAlum Much appreciated!!

Thanks for the excellent response :)

I would add that when I say the gold sheet idea of "impotent favourite" is similar to your "window dressing favourite", I meant in general thinking. in practice, they are sort of opposites.

your "O/U squeeze" is very interesting.. I was more expecting 35 point spread and 45 total type idea. although there should be very few of those in "FBS vs FBS" games.

I dislike 2 of your big picks but realize that you are an ATS winner and you have system. whereas my dissenting opinion is largely qualitative in my one.

Wisconsin is from another planet than WSU... I feel like Wisky is a good "run up the score team too".... WSU has a stud passing QB/OC combo from record-breaking Houston Baptist, which means maybe WSU can score.. which leads to OVER

and non-quant, but USC is on a different planet than Stanford (these days) and I would say is "hot coming out party" pick, which has alot of similarities to "top 25 window dressing offence" (think Harbaugh at UM)... I don't think Stanford proved much last week. I do note that Stanford has been a thorn in USC's side much of the last 20 years.

@HooAlum

 Had some changes overnight in the indicators that for the most part reduced play on games (no call switched except pulling the ASU-Ok St altogether but the amounts did).  I have included the games with changes

Saturday Noon

Texas - 3 units - lopsided wagering (reverse movement went away with move back up to -20.5)

 Afternoon games

Washington St - 3 units - Sharp indicator, over/under squeeze (lopsided wagering, as it often does, evened out)

Iowa - 2.5 units - low ticket favorite with negative movement and sharp indicator

Evening Games

Kentucky - 1 unit - sharp indicator

Stanford - 5 units - BIG CHANGE -  reverse movement with strong sharp indicators (but lopsided wagering with road favorite evened out)

Virginia Tech - 1/2 unit - low ticket favorite with negative line movement outweighs modest sharp indicator

Arizona St-Oklahoma St  - NO Bet as indicators went away

BYU - 5.5 units - low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, & SKS (strong sharp indicators pulled back)

Couple of mid afternoon updates on tell movement

Notre Dame-Marshall hit the handle amount (shocker) to count.  Marshall 2 units based on lopsided wagering on the Irish.  The lopsided wager came back for Wazzu as well to regain the 5 unit play.  Those are good.  Texas Tech goes down as a low ticket favorite so more units on them.  That is neutral.  That makes up for the bad of moving aTexas from 4 to 3 (but still not bad given a win is a win)

@HooAlum

 Let's stay hot!

Evening Games

Kentucky - 1 unit - sharp indicator

Stanford - 3 units (BIG CHANGE!!!) - lot of things went away including lopsided wagering on road favorite & reverse movement.  Not surprisingly the sharp indicators reduced but are still there

Arizona St  - 3 units - sharp indicator & lopsided wagering (big public surge here but the most volatile of all the games as a few indicators are right on the edge)

Hawaii - 1 unit - NEW GAME - not much to talk about except the 50+ spread.  Over under squeeze thanks to that high spread but sharp indicators on Harbaugh.  The handle finally got acceptable to count.

BC-Virginia Tech - No Bet with conflicting indicators of low trickster favorite and sharp action

BYU - 6 units - low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, & SKS

Mississippi St - 2 units - sharp indicators

how did you do on the weekend?

@jimrockford22

 After a poor week 1 all the losses were recaptured in week 2.  The overall W-L record is now positive for the year but there is the smallest of monetary unit losses (inside the vig margin).

SUMMARY

RECORD: Week 12-7 SEASON 27-23 54%

PROFIT: Week 13.3 units SEASON (-1.3 units) -1.06%

INIDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Steam: 100% (it is 1-0 don't get too excited but it is 58.96% over a 4 year period so a legitimately good sign)

Lopsided Wagering on Road favorite: 100% (also only 1-0 but I bet you can guess the game it occurred.  I know Nick Saban can)

Western team Early EST Start: 1-0 (also only 1-0 but it is a whopping 70.83% over 4 years so legit good tell)

SKS (rankings inconsistent with point spread): 70%

Low Bet Favorite: 56.25%; positive movement 50%, negative movement 57.14%, no movement 60%

Over/Under Squeeze: 55.56%

Reverse Movement: 50%

Lopsided Wagering: 50%: counter line imovement 66.67%, parallel line movement 0% (0-1), no line movement 50%

Lopsided wagering with Large underdog (not used but monitored): 50%

Line Movement (not used but monitored): 47.22%; positive line movement 71.43%, negative line movement 15.38%

Sharp Indicators: 43.55%; straight up 45.96%

**********

Early Week 3 Analysis (warning: indicators reliant on line movements like Lopsided wagering may (& likely) are to change

Louisville - 3 units - Lopsided wagering and sharp indicator

Baylor - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Nebraska - 3 units - strong sharp indicators

Syracuse - 3 units - low ticket favorite, reverse movement

South Carolina - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Auburn - 1 unit - sharp indicator

Oregon - 4 units - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS outweighs sharp indicator

Georgia Tech - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Houston - 1.5 units - low ticket favorite with negative line movement

Liberty - 2 units - lopsided wagering

NC State - 4 units - low ticket favorite and strong sharp indicators

Washington - 8 units - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators and SKS

Western Michigan - 2 units - lopsided wagering

SMU - 2 units - reverse movement

Texas A&M - 5 units - low ticket favorite, reverse movement, & SKS outweighs Sharp indicator

San Diego St - 4 units - lopsided wagering, reverse movement

Fresno St - 2 units - lopsided wagering

maybe sharps are bad so far? books seem pretty off. That could be a contra-indicator for the time being. Love what you wrote. Thanks for posting. You give me so much confirmation bias it makes me warm and fuzzy.

Char is such a bade football team, 

@HooAlum

 Friday night slate (I'll post on tomorrow's games later tonight).  Still over 2 hours before kickoff so will see if anything changes in the interim.

Louisville - 5.5 units - lopsided wagering and strong sharp indicators.  BetMGM if you have access to it still has Louisville (+3).  others are at (+2.5)

I am monitoring Wyoming-Air Force as the handle has now become relevant but nothing to report yet.

As often happens lopsided wagering pulled back at the last moment and evened out.  Still Louisville but only 3.5 units

Wyoming (grab +17 at DraftKings, it is amazingly still -110) popped with a slight sharp indicator for a 2 unit play

This goes with a bunch of warning.  As documented the sharp indicators (or at least my analysis of those indicators) has been poor this year so there is a buyer beware element but that is the call just the same.  Back later with Saturday's games.

@HooAlum

Saturday Games

NOON

Baylor (1.5 units) - Low ticket favorite with negative movement

Nebraska (3.5 units) - Sharp Indicators

Syracuse (3.5 units) - reverse movements and sharp indicators

South Carolina-Georgia - No Bet

MIDDAY

Temple (1 unit) - lopsided wagering on a double digit away favorite outweighs sharp indicators

Notre Dame (2 units) - steam movement

Auburn (1 unit) - sharp indicator

Oregon (4.5 units) - low ticket favorite, SKS & sharp indicator

Georgia Tech (3 units) - lopsided wagering on a double digit away favorite

Houston (1.5 units) - low ticket favroite with negative movement

Liberty (2 units) - lopsided wagering

Mississippi St (3 units) - low ticket favorite with positive  line movement and sharp indicator

NC State (4 units) - low ticket favorite & sharp indicators

Washington (6.5 units) - low ticket favorite, SKS, & sharp indicators

Western Michigan (1/2 unit) - sharp indicator

SMU (2 units) - reverse movement

UTSA (3 units) - sharp indicators

TexasA&M (8 units) - low ticket favorite with positive line movement, reverse movement and SKS

San Diego St-Utah (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balances sharp movement

************

INIDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Steam: 100% (it is 1-0 don't get too excited but it is 58.96% over a 4 year period so a legitimately good sign)

Lopsided Wagering on Road favorite: 100% (also only 1-0 but I bet you can guess the game it occurred.  I know Nick Saban can)

Western team Early EST Start: 1-0 (also only 1-0 but it is a whopping 70.83% over 4 years so legit good tell)

SKS (rankings inconsistent with point spread): 70%

Low Bet Favorite: 56.25%; positive movement 50%, negative movement 57.14%, no movement 60%

Over/Under Squeeze: 55.56%

Reverse Movement: 50%

Lopsided Wagering: 50%: counter line imovement 66.67%, parallel line movement 0% (0-1), no line movement 50%

Lopsided wagering with Large underdog (not used but monitored): 50%

Line Movement (not used but monitored): 47.22%; positive line movement 71.43%, negative line movement 15.38%

Sharp Indicators: 43.55%; straight up 45.96%