If you look at SOS and efficiency ratings Iowa and Nebraska actually line up quite well next to each other.
The eyeball test when you watch the games says something completely different.
It's much like this Purdue game. This line peaking at 14 is partially a product of the horrible stats in the aggregate Purdue has on both sides of the ball.
Thanks NJ.
I don't have my CFB record last year. I went 24-10 (70%) overall last year. I don't segregate records anymore. 1 record. 1 line of type. Save the rest of the lines to move on to what's important: the pick.
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Quote Originally Posted by madisonmike:
If you look at SOS and efficiency ratings Iowa and Nebraska actually line up quite well next to each other.
The eyeball test when you watch the games says something completely different.
It's much like this Purdue game. This line peaking at 14 is partially a product of the horrible stats in the aggregate Purdue has on both sides of the ball.
Thanks NJ.
I don't have my CFB record last year. I went 24-10 (70%) overall last year. I don't segregate records anymore. 1 record. 1 line of type. Save the rest of the lines to move on to what's important: the pick.
So you're saying Nebraska passes the eyeball test? Last few weeks have not been good to watch.. at all. Good luck!
Of course they pass the eyeball test, when you compare them to Iowa who had one of the most lackluster wins in program history against a Rutgers squad completely devoid of talent. And that doesn't even speak to their other struggles including their QB who overshoots some of his targets by 8 yards and will max out at 160 yards for the game.
And that the point: A line to line comparison between these two teams.
Kvs - Appreciate it.
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Quote Originally Posted by madisonmike:
So you're saying Nebraska passes the eyeball test? Last few weeks have not been good to watch.. at all. Good luck!
Of course they pass the eyeball test, when you compare them to Iowa who had one of the most lackluster wins in program history against a Rutgers squad completely devoid of talent. And that doesn't even speak to their other struggles including their QB who overshoots some of his targets by 8 yards and will max out at 160 yards for the game.
And that the point: A line to line comparison between these two teams.
scal for my money ur the best capper on here seeing the game from a number of different angles...and i love the pick of purdue...but as a very well informed husker fan i hate u using us as a barometer here...our O line is in shambles (as our lack of running game ability last week showed) and we were playing to get through the week...I would say purdue should be better than in the early season on offense but don't expect them to stop the run like they did against the huskers...big let down spot for Penn st tho and purdue is restarting their season basically...best of luck!and keep the plays coming!
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scal for my money ur the best capper on here seeing the game from a number of different angles...and i love the pick of purdue...but as a very well informed husker fan i hate u using us as a barometer here...our O line is in shambles (as our lack of running game ability last week showed) and we were playing to get through the week...I would say purdue should be better than in the early season on offense but don't expect them to stop the run like they did against the huskers...big let down spot for Penn st tho and purdue is restarting their season basically...best of luck!and keep the plays coming!
I've played sports but that has had zero affect on my capping. In fact it's been a negative. It gave me false confidence I knew more than I did.
I will say I've changed a few things with regard to the way I cap. And when I made those changes with regard to how I cap and what I focus on, my winning percentage got over 70%. And it hasn't come down for almost two years now. And I don't think other people do those things. They do some of them but not all. When up do all of them, you win...consistently. The obvious thing I do is focus on terrible teams. The lines are awful because the books get no action on these games. I LOVE looking away from teams like Bama and toward teams like Wagner College in Staten Island (yes I bet on/against them but don't post them in particular because that is far too cryptic a pick, even for those that know me) because the lines on some of their games are laughable. So are pro wrestling lines and other exotics. There are some political lines out right now which are 100% winners that I've piled on.
Enough rambling. The bottom line is this: Let's win this fu**ing Purdue game from +11.5 to +14 so we all cash. End of story!
Amen Brother! love the insight
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Oh I remember you. We've gotten into it.
No hard feelings. Thanks for the kind words.
I've played sports but that has had zero affect on my capping. In fact it's been a negative. It gave me false confidence I knew more than I did.
I will say I've changed a few things with regard to the way I cap. And when I made those changes with regard to how I cap and what I focus on, my winning percentage got over 70%. And it hasn't come down for almost two years now. And I don't think other people do those things. They do some of them but not all. When up do all of them, you win...consistently. The obvious thing I do is focus on terrible teams. The lines are awful because the books get no action on these games. I LOVE looking away from teams like Bama and toward teams like Wagner College in Staten Island (yes I bet on/against them but don't post them in particular because that is far too cryptic a pick, even for those that know me) because the lines on some of their games are laughable. So are pro wrestling lines and other exotics. There are some political lines out right now which are 100% winners that I've piled on.
Enough rambling. The bottom line is this: Let's win this fu**ing Purdue game from +11.5 to +14 so we all cash. End of story!
scal for my money ur the best capper on here seeing the game from a number of different angles...and i love the pick of purdue...but as a very well informed husker fan i hate u using us as a barometer here...our O line is in shambles (as our lack of running game ability last week showed) and we were playing to get through the week...I would say purdue should be better than in the early season on offense but don't expect them to stop the run like they did against the huskers...big let down spot for Penn st tho and purdue is restarting their season basically...best of luck!and keep the plays coming!
Appreciate it.
What's your take on this massive 8.5 for the Huskers as a Husker fan? Can't say I'm not intrigued.
Addicted
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Quote Originally Posted by jmak21:
scal for my money ur the best capper on here seeing the game from a number of different angles...and i love the pick of purdue...but as a very well informed husker fan i hate u using us as a barometer here...our O line is in shambles (as our lack of running game ability last week showed) and we were playing to get through the week...I would say purdue should be better than in the early season on offense but don't expect them to stop the run like they did against the huskers...big let down spot for Penn st tho and purdue is restarting their season basically...best of luck!and keep the plays coming!
Appreciate it.
What's your take on this massive 8.5 for the Huskers as a Husker fan? Can't say I'm not intrigued.
I don't have my CFB record last year. I went 24-10 (70%) overall last year. I don't segregate records anymore. 1 record. 1 line of type. Save the rest of the lines to move on to what's important: the pick.
70% record last year too!! I'm sold, sign me up.
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
I don't have my CFB record last year. I went 24-10 (70%) overall last year. I don't segregate records anymore. 1 record. 1 line of type. Save the rest of the lines to move on to what's important: the pick.
You guys are more than free to wait for a better spot.
It jumped from 12.5 to 14 in about 2 minutes on 5Dimes.
Opened at 10.5 on BetOnline.
I'm fine with the 14
I think once some of the bigger bettors start to understand how well Purdue performed against Nebraska, and their bets, possibly swallowing up some Purdue action, may cause this line to go to 13.5 which is obviously below the 2 TD's I more than will take
Last week UCF opened at -2.5 and I never saw it again so I was happy to jump here.
That was a great call on UCF I tailed you on that pick and I like this line too
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
You guys are more than free to wait for a better spot.
It jumped from 12.5 to 14 in about 2 minutes on 5Dimes.
Opened at 10.5 on BetOnline.
I'm fine with the 14
I think once some of the bigger bettors start to understand how well Purdue performed against Nebraska, and their bets, possibly swallowing up some Purdue action, may cause this line to go to 13.5 which is obviously below the 2 TD's I more than will take
Last week UCF opened at -2.5 and I never saw it again so I was happy to jump here.
That was a great call on UCF I tailed you on that pick and I like this line too
We have nothing to lose, everything to gain. We have to be extremely aggressive in our approach. I think you saw that from me and some of the decisions we made, and during the game and managed it, and that will not change.
GOOD. That is what I wanted to hear. Watching Hazell for 4 years fold like a lawn chair in terms of game plan is in the past. Time for a new Purdue team and a team that gets over this number!
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Thanks guys.
Coach Parker in the weekly presser.
Will the game plan remain aggressive?
We have nothing to lose, everything to gain. We have to be extremely aggressive in our approach. I think you saw that from me and some of the decisions we made, and during the game and managed it, and that will not change.
GOOD. That is what I wanted to hear. Watching Hazell for 4 years fold like a lawn chair in terms of game plan is in the past. Time for a new Purdue team and a team that gets over this number!
You know, everybody around them that's connected to the program. We want to give you guys something that you're proud of; that we can step away from this and look back on over Christmas and say, you know what, I'll go to war with that.
Just lip service but this is a home game where Purdue is typically dreadful and he recognizes the fans deserve more. Perhaps a bit more effort to boot. Hazell never said these things.
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On the fans frustrations:
You know, everybody around them that's connected to the program. We want to give you guys something that you're proud of; that we can step away from this and look back on over Christmas and say, you know what, I'll go to war with that.
Just lip service but this is a home game where Purdue is typically dreadful and he recognizes the fans deserve more. Perhaps a bit more effort to boot. Hazell never said these things.
Full details of what Penn State head coach is dealing with:
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. --James Franklin will continue to ride an emotional rollercoaster this week and days after the Nittany Lions upset then No. 2 Ohio State, Penn State's head coach will spend part of Tuesday with his family attending a funeral for his brother in law.
Franklin acknowledged the whirlwind week during Saturday's post-game news conference when he teared up while giving a shout out to his niece and nephew who last week lost their father to cancer.
"It was an emotional night for my for my family, an emotional week for my family and although this win is big I want [my niece and nephew] Jeremy and Kendra to know that I'm thinking about them and that I love them," he said. "This is emotional on a lot of different levels."
Franklin will be out of town on Tuesday to attend the funeral and therefore will hold his weekly news conference Wednesday at 1 p.m. in the Beaver Stadium media room. Assistant coach Terry Smith will take Franklin's place Tuesday afternoon on the weekly Big Ten football coach's teleconference where he will field questions about the team for 10 minutes.
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Full details of what Penn State head coach is dealing with:
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. --James Franklin will continue to ride an emotional rollercoaster this week and days after the Nittany Lions upset then No. 2 Ohio State, Penn State's head coach will spend part of Tuesday with his family attending a funeral for his brother in law.
Franklin acknowledged the whirlwind week during Saturday's post-game news conference when he teared up while giving a shout out to his niece and nephew who last week lost their father to cancer.
"It was an emotional night for my for my family, an emotional week for my family and although this win is big I want [my niece and nephew] Jeremy and Kendra to know that I'm thinking about them and that I love them," he said. "This is emotional on a lot of different levels."
Franklin will be out of town on Tuesday to attend the funeral and therefore will hold his weekly news conference Wednesday at 1 p.m. in the Beaver Stadium media room. Assistant coach Terry Smith will take Franklin's place Tuesday afternoon on the weekly Big Ten football coach's teleconference where he will field questions about the team for 10 minutes.
And now I see why the Purdue game is getting so much attention. Good luck on your +14 Scal
I wonder how much influence Scal has on line movement. He has just about the most popular threads in just about the most popular betting forum. Ive been blind tailing for weeks... Purdue, Maryland, Temple, UCF....
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Quote Originally Posted by madisonmike:
And now I see why the Purdue game is getting so much attention. Good luck on your +14 Scal
I wonder how much influence Scal has on line movement. He has just about the most popular threads in just about the most popular betting forum. Ive been blind tailing for weeks... Purdue, Maryland, Temple, UCF....
I wonder how much influence Scal has on line movement. He has just about the most popular threads in just about the most popular betting forum. Ive been blind tailing for weeks... Purdue, Maryland, Temple, UCF....
I'll say this: it doesn't matter BUT the past dozen or so picks have moved against my number, with one or two exceptions that didn't move. Sometimes a lot, sometimes very little. Which affects every guy who reads the thread 4 days later.
Having said that, luckily, every game that was a winner has covered for everyone. Hoping that trend continues as I'm losing nearly a FG here.
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Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:
I wonder how much influence Scal has on line movement. He has just about the most popular threads in just about the most popular betting forum. Ive been blind tailing for weeks... Purdue, Maryland, Temple, UCF....
I'll say this: it doesn't matter BUT the past dozen or so picks have moved against my number, with one or two exceptions that didn't move. Sometimes a lot, sometimes very little. Which affects every guy who reads the thread 4 days later.
Having said that, luckily, every game that was a winner has covered for everyone. Hoping that trend continues as I'm losing nearly a FG here.
Line is at +11 in my book right now. If I wait, what am i hoping for... 12?
Can't get any worse than 11. This line isn't hitting 10.5. 10.5 is unacceptable in my opinion. Not that I don't think they can't cover that number but at some point I have to back off > a FG of spread. That's just ok much to hand back. You'd be waiting for 11.5 again. 12 is a dead number as is 12.5. But more points can't hurt at this point.
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Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:
Line is at +11 in my book right now. If I wait, what am i hoping for... 12?
Can't get any worse than 11. This line isn't hitting 10.5. 10.5 is unacceptable in my opinion. Not that I don't think they can't cover that number but at some point I have to back off > a FG of spread. That's just ok much to hand back. You'd be waiting for 11.5 again. 12 is a dead number as is 12.5. But more points can't hurt at this point.
I want the maximum amount of points I can get with Purdue. So 11.5 would cause me to reduce my exposure money-wise as always. More risk less reward. Adjust accordingly and that is individual to each bettor.
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Quote Originally Posted by hAnsolo820:
scalabrine, would you take em at +11.5?
I want the maximum amount of points I can get with Purdue. So 11.5 would cause me to reduce my exposure money-wise as always. More risk less reward. Adjust accordingly and that is individual to each bettor.
If this line was Penn St -5, I would think to myself "yeah that sounds about right."
This is very bizarre. I just don't get who takes Penn St minus this number, yet the line wouldn't be posted if people were not taking them.
A few big things working against Penn St this game. THEY DON'T CARE. Period. This is not a good team. They have no serious aspirations for a big ten title or anything. Their SB was last week. This game means nothing to them. How can you psychologically get into playing Purdue on the road after that last game? Seems like such an obvious let down spot.
The other thing I can't get over is how embarrassing the Penn St. football program is on the road the last 5-6 years. They don't just lose, they aren't competitive. Vs any solid team on the road they lose by 20+ every time. And they are bad enough where I believe they can't take beating any program on the road for granted. You look at their schedules in recent years on Wikipedia they have beaten nobody on the road. Look at Temple last year. I mean that is a great measuring game in my opinion. Respectable mid major team, they got blown out.
I remember a few road games a few years ago vs Syracuse and Rutgers, 2 pretty bad programs. They won each by less than a TD. I feel like unless they play Hawaii or maybe New Mexico or just some really terrible program they can't beat anyone on the road by double digits. Purdue is a pretty bad team, but you figure they can score on this Penn St. D which is not that good and defensively anyone can get some stops on Penn St. on their home field.
Purdue is garbage, but Penn St. has been so horrendous on the road in recent years I just do not understand this. At home yeah they are very competitive. They took Ohio St. to OT a couple years ago and lost. I'm sure no one here remembers that. I think Ohio St. won the whole thing that year. But this team plays 20 points better at home than on the road on average.
This game should feel easier to Purdue too because on the road vs Nebraska is much more difficult than Penn St at home. So they have a psychological adv there. And it's Halloween all the home teams are gonna show up and be focused for the big weekend. Not to mention they know they have limited chances to win games so this probably feels like a big game to them. Half their games they know they have no shot to win.
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If this line was Penn St -5, I would think to myself "yeah that sounds about right."
This is very bizarre. I just don't get who takes Penn St minus this number, yet the line wouldn't be posted if people were not taking them.
A few big things working against Penn St this game. THEY DON'T CARE. Period. This is not a good team. They have no serious aspirations for a big ten title or anything. Their SB was last week. This game means nothing to them. How can you psychologically get into playing Purdue on the road after that last game? Seems like such an obvious let down spot.
The other thing I can't get over is how embarrassing the Penn St. football program is on the road the last 5-6 years. They don't just lose, they aren't competitive. Vs any solid team on the road they lose by 20+ every time. And they are bad enough where I believe they can't take beating any program on the road for granted. You look at their schedules in recent years on Wikipedia they have beaten nobody on the road. Look at Temple last year. I mean that is a great measuring game in my opinion. Respectable mid major team, they got blown out.
I remember a few road games a few years ago vs Syracuse and Rutgers, 2 pretty bad programs. They won each by less than a TD. I feel like unless they play Hawaii or maybe New Mexico or just some really terrible program they can't beat anyone on the road by double digits. Purdue is a pretty bad team, but you figure they can score on this Penn St. D which is not that good and defensively anyone can get some stops on Penn St. on their home field.
Purdue is garbage, but Penn St. has been so horrendous on the road in recent years I just do not understand this. At home yeah they are very competitive. They took Ohio St. to OT a couple years ago and lost. I'm sure no one here remembers that. I think Ohio St. won the whole thing that year. But this team plays 20 points better at home than on the road on average.
This game should feel easier to Purdue too because on the road vs Nebraska is much more difficult than Penn St at home. So they have a psychological adv there. And it's Halloween all the home teams are gonna show up and be focused for the big weekend. Not to mention they know they have limited chances to win games so this probably feels like a big game to them. Half their games they know they have no shot to win.
While I did post that this is a no play for me in another thread, I do see the value taking Purdue in this spot. While Penn St is up and coming, I haven't seen anything yet to suggest they should be a double digit favorite on the road in a conference matchup. However, I just can't get behind a horrible team on the ground vs a very good defense that you can pencil in for a few sacks and a couple picks if Purdue plans on throwing it 40+ times. On the other side, Barkley and McSorley are going to be a HUGE problem for that Purdue defense with the zone read. This game has Barkley going for 200 written all over it. Also, McSorley has been really good at taking care of the football.
Best of luck to Purdue backers. The value is definitely there.
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While I did post that this is a no play for me in another thread, I do see the value taking Purdue in this spot. While Penn St is up and coming, I haven't seen anything yet to suggest they should be a double digit favorite on the road in a conference matchup. However, I just can't get behind a horrible team on the ground vs a very good defense that you can pencil in for a few sacks and a couple picks if Purdue plans on throwing it 40+ times. On the other side, Barkley and McSorley are going to be a HUGE problem for that Purdue defense with the zone read. This game has Barkley going for 200 written all over it. Also, McSorley has been really good at taking care of the football.
Best of luck to Purdue backers. The value is definitely there.
I'll be rooting for you Scal. I might bite if it gets back up to 13. Doubt it will though. Impressive record by the way.
Like your Rockets play in NBA. D'Antoni is legit and he FINALLY has the roster to run his system.
It's going to be interesting to see how the Lakers fill out Staples without the draw of Kobe. Similar to Dwight's departure, I think the Lakers get better without Kobe, but how do you get past the Russell/Swaggy P drama in the locker room? Guy code. Kills the locker room. (Sorry, don't want to hijack your thread with NBA talk.)
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I'll be rooting for you Scal. I might bite if it gets back up to 13. Doubt it will though. Impressive record by the way.
Like your Rockets play in NBA. D'Antoni is legit and he FINALLY has the roster to run his system.
It's going to be interesting to see how the Lakers fill out Staples without the draw of Kobe. Similar to Dwight's departure, I think the Lakers get better without Kobe, but how do you get past the Russell/Swaggy P drama in the locker room? Guy code. Kills the locker room. (Sorry, don't want to hijack your thread with NBA talk.)
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