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PENN STATE @ PURDUE: If the books keep spitting out lines like this, we have to keep taking them.

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


I want the maximum amount of points I can get with Purdue. So 11.5 would cause me to reduce my exposure money-wise as always. More risk less reward. Adjust accordingly and that is individual to each bettor.


thank you. always insightful and a great capper! good luck brudda.
 
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Posted: #102
[/Quote]Appreciate it. What's your take on this massive 8.5 for the Huskers as a Husker fan? Can't say I'm not intrigued.
as a Husker fan who isn't afraid to bet against his team...I think wiscy has had our number so badly the last few years I can't bet for the huskers...but this team acts differently...they believe they ll win and that's a dangerous team...idk how they ll win with all the injuries...and the defense will have to be lights out which we normally only are for a half or so but as a fan i ll enjoy the game and probably hop on nebraska 2h!
 
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Posted: #103
Purdue now up to 12.5 on 5Dimes. Moving in the right direction!

Thanks for the responses above.
 
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Posted: #104
Seeing 13 now, hold out hope fellas!
 
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Posted: #105
Scal, don't mean to diverge from topic but couldn't find your OKC future thread anywhere...does it still exist?  thank you.
 
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Posted: #106
Got it at +14 at -120.  Good luck! 
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by No_FUN_League:

Scal, don't mean to diverge from topic but couldn't find your OKC future thread anywhere...does it still exist?  thank you.

The line didn't move for a month and was at 5.5 for another two weeks: 
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=102309645

Unfortunately it's up form -5 to -9.5. I wanted you all to get to that game months ago and get the same line I got. The cow has left the barn.



 
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Posted: #108
Wow. -13. Nice!!!
 
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Posted: #109
Scal- 

As per the Nebraska @ Wisky (-8.5) matchup:

1) 8.5 is a boatload...Wisky isn't in the habit of rolling up points  (about 19 ppg in conference)

2) Cichy out hurts. Called the defensive signals and in many ways was their "balls" on D.

3) Riley, Riley, Riley.....we all know you are soft Mike, but does the downward spiral begin this week or next? @ OSU, Minny, Maryland, @ Iowa left....would not surprise me to see NU dump 3 of 4 in that stretch.

4) Riley was actually pretty good as an away dog at Oregon St.... 23-12 ats from 2006 (that is as far as the Phil Steele mag goes back)

5) Neb 7-0 w/wins @ IU and @N'western...at first glance the schedule is soft, but blow out win vs Wyoming and holding serve against N'western may be worth a bit more credit than I would normally give. The Oregon win was also against a still interested Oregon squad. Certainly the toughest games are yet to come, but at this point the SOS shouldn't be a reason to bash NU.

6) Is there a more public team than Wisky this season? Seems like they play the game of the week every week...oh wait, they do. Vs LSU, Michigan and Ohio State were all national games....we have all watched a ton of Wisky football.

7) Wisky's QBs aren't going to beat you...they may play efficient, but can they win a game if the run isn't there?

8) Neb D #s aren't all bad......21st in total yards and only giving up 125ish per game? IF they can stand in there against the run, Badger Tds turn into FGs.

So, if you are betting Wisconsin and laying the points then you are betting on the Huskers to score under 14-17. To put it simply, Wisconsin is overbought...and likely to go higher. Take a look at Wisky's last 4....@ Mich, Bye, OSU, and @Iowa. Brutal stretch, played pretty well in spots, and it has taken a toll. Those are all physical games, and the injury list is a mile long. IF Wisconsin cannot be physical and set the tone, then they can be in trouble.....

Bottom line: I will be around when the wheels come off in Lincoln....but NU is in a position to play their best this week. NU or nothing for me.....no real reason to pull the trigger yet, this thing has potential to spin up to 10 or 10.5 with all of Wisky's exposure this season. 
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Posted: #110
Wisky D gives up *125ish against the run
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Posted: #111
My bad...in a hurry....Nebraska's D gives up 125 vs the run. 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

Scal- 

As per the Nebraska @ Wisky (-8.5) matchup:

1) 8.5 is a boatload...Wisky isn't in the habit of rolling up points  (about 19 ppg in conference)

2) Cichy out hurts. Called the defensive signals and in many ways was their "balls" on D.

3) Riley, Riley, Riley.....we all know you are soft Mike, but does the downward spiral begin this week or next? @ OSU, Minny, Maryland, @ Iowa left....would not surprise me to see NU dump 3 of 4 in that stretch.

4) Riley was actually pretty good as an away dog at Oregon St.... 23-12 ats from 2006 (that is as far as the Phil Steele mag goes back)

5) Neb 7-0 w/wins @ IU and @N'western...at first glance the schedule is soft, but blow out win vs Wyoming and holding serve against N'western may be worth a bit more credit than I would normally give. The Oregon win was also against a still interested Oregon squad. Certainly the toughest games are yet to come, but at this point the SOS shouldn't be a reason to bash NU.

6) Is there a more public team than Wisky this season? Seems like they play the game of the week every week...oh wait, they do. Vs LSU, Michigan and Ohio State were all national games....we have all watched a ton of Wisky football.

7) Wisky's QBs aren't going to beat you...they may play efficient, but can they win a game if the run isn't there?

8) Neb D #s aren't all bad......21st in total yards and only giving up 125ish per game? IF they can stand in there against the run, Badger Tds turn into FGs.

So, if you are betting Wisconsin and laying the points then you are betting on the Huskers to score under 14-17. To put it simply, Wisconsin is overbought...and likely to go higher. Take a look at Wisky's last 4....@ Mich, Bye, OSU, and @Iowa. Brutal stretch, played pretty well in spots, and it has taken a toll. Those are all physical games, and the injury list is a mile long. IF Wisconsin cannot be physical and set the tone, then they can be in trouble.....

Bottom line: I will be around when the wheels come off in Lincoln....but NU is in a position to play their best this week. NU or nothing for me.....no real reason to pull the trigger yet, this thing has potential to spin up to 10 or 10.5 with all of Wisky's exposure this season. 


Ya got me in quite a pickle here Vern. I have virtually 100% consensus among Nebraska homers telling me they won't get inside this number and now you are telling me otherwise with solid argumentation.

I think the only play here is to tease Nebraska up from an already inflated line. I will take Neb or nothing if I do take a side.


You have an opinion on Boise -13.5 @ Wyoming?

I watched that Wyoming Nevada game and Nevada didn't punt for 2.5 quarters. SIX straight drives with scores of some kind. Scored 4TD's and a FG on 5 straight drives. Couldn't believe what I was seeing. Nevada is just horrendous. To move the ball like that? Imagine what Boise would do.

I HATE that Boise is undefeated and Wyoming can move the ball. That is not in question. But can they keep up with Boise. Now that it's under 14, I was soliciting opinions. For all Wyoming's successes this year I was shocked it opened this high, especially given Boise has been in some squeakers lately. Can't really put my finger on Boise. 21-10 to Utah State at home?

 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by Capodecina:


Penn State was -11  then -11.5 last night as I was reading this incredibly long thread. Thinking I missed the boat on Purdue +14 like you suggested, I held off. Just now I look and the line is now Penn State -13  - a pretty large jump in my opinion. What happened? Did the starting QB get arrested last night?  LOL  


If it gets back to -14, I'll eat crow cap.

 
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Posted: #114

Now that I'm looking at some of these lines:


MSU +24.5 at home??? The preseason line on that game was MSU +10 at one point! That has to be the highest home dog ever in the history of this rivalry on either side.

Iowa State +7 at home vs. KSU with an injured Ertz? Wow. Not sure what's going on here. Weird and wacky lines this week. Who cares if they are 1-6. Look at their schedule.


 
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Posted: #115

Too bad SMU beat Houston. Had they lost, ironically, we would have had the same game of the year as last year when we had SMU beating Tulane.

But now Tulane comes in on a losing streak (when last year they had an emotional win over Army) against SMU which was embarrassing themselves.

Totally different situation. The line of +3 is unwarranted though. While SMU has a poor run defense (but held Hou to <70 on the ground Wow!) Tulane's pass defense is non-existent. SMU will throw all over them all day.

SMU had to F*** that 2 Time GOY up with that win last week. It stinks.

 
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Posted: #116
I can get it at Purdue +13.5 now. Big jump just today. Any reason why you think it might of happened? Sharps wanting that -11 and pounced so moved back to -13.5? 
 
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Posted: #117
Just jumped from 11.5 to 13.5 tonight at 6:30est.
 
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Posted: #118
For what it is worth, Nebraska should get Westerkamp back at wide reciever, but the o-line is still in bad shape. Not sure how much this means, but, Mike Riley and Paul Chryst are good friends. They coached together in the World League, the Chargers, and at Oregon St. Chryst might not try and run up the score if that situation should arise and both are very familiar with the others schemes. might make me lean toward teasing Nebr and under? 
 
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Posted: #119
When it comes to gambling , that be casino games like "craps" or sports betting, i always pass the dice so it could get back into the hand of the hot roller, no different here , scalabrine stay hot,GL
 
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Posted: #120
Penn State going to be in the top 25 for 1 week 
 
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Posted: #121
Psu-12 lvsc not bringing xmas early.
 
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Posted: #122
i dont want scal to eat crow crap, but i would like the original line of +14 so i can get down on it 
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Ya got me in quite a pickle here Vern. I have virtually 100% consensus among Nebraska homers telling me they won't get inside this number and now you are telling me otherwise with solid argumentation.

I think the only play here is to tease Nebraska up from an already inflated line. I will take Neb or nothing if I do take a side.


You have an opinion on Boise -13.5 @ Wyoming?

I watched that Wyoming Nevada game and Nevada didn't punt for 2.5 quarters. SIX straight drives with scores of some kind. Scored 4TD's and a FG on 5 straight drives. Couldn't believe what I was seeing. Nevada is just horrendous. To move the ball like that? Imagine what Boise would do.

I HATE that Boise is undefeated and Wyoming can move the ball. That is not in question. But can they keep up with Boise. Now that it's under 14, I was soliciting opinions. For all Wyoming's successes this year I was shocked it opened this high, especially given Boise has been in some squeakers lately. Can't really put my finger on Boise. 21-10 to Utah State at home?


The Boise clunker vs BYU was surprising to me. I think that they thought it was time to be the Boise of old and roll up someone on the blue carpet....and it didn't happen. But, they did turn the ball over 5 times vs BYU and still win. That is worth something. 

If  BSU plays clean then they will hang 40+. WYO is 123rd in pass yds allowed...against that schedule? If Rypien stays upright he throws for 350.

IMO Boise will have it in cruise control ATS until the @ AFA game at the end of the year. Oddsmakers have given AFA a ton of respect this season even though they dump periodically. That one could be close.

Bottom line: BSU has dreams of the playoff....more than likely the New Year's six....that means they need to win big. So, if possible they will run it up on the Cowboys. Should be able to get it done.

As for the Nebraska play, if the homers are calling asskicking, then it may be so. I try not to argue with regional guys about their teams because they often have some insight. 

But, Wisconsin is way overbought here....I wouldn't be surprised at all to see some 10's showing up tomorrow evening after the touts release their picks. IMO the points will be a factor in this one.
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Posted: #124
taking Penn St and love anything under 14.   The thesis of this thread is confusing.   The Purdue/Nebraska implied score was 42-17.   The Purdue Offense underperformed the line and on a yard per play basis had one of its worse games.   After hitting a 88 yard pass play at 10:40 in the 2nd quarter- Purdue was shut out the rest of the game.   The surprise actually was on the defensive side.   After a near historic level of ineptitude against the run- giving up 365 6.9 Iowa/ 315 6.8 Illinois and 400/ 8.7 Maryland- Purdue was a respectable 157/4.2  against Nebraska.  

But Nebraska had its biggest game next week against Wisconsin- sat Westerkamp(declared he good play Monday against Wisconsin).   
On the flip side the big change for Penn St was having 2 of its
Starting Linebackers back for the Ohio State game.   PSU had all 3 starting LBs hurt for most of the year.   Even without 2/3 of its LB core this is a top 25 Defense and Saturday held OSU a yard under its normal YPR.   And PSU has played the 6th hardest schedule- facing an easy remaining schedule good easily play its way into a New Years Bowl game.  Penn St is both the best defensive squad Purdue has played but depending on the measure also the best offensive team(without Westerkamp I would rate PSU ahead of Nebraska).   The PSU front 7 dominated OSU especially in the 2nd half with P. Sickles was back from a 1st half suspension.
This will be the healthiest PSU has been this year/ an offensive line that has made great strides this year/ a star RB in Barkley(8 yards a carry against OSU).   I see PSU over 30 plus points and able to hold Purdue to around 17- call it 38-17 PSU>

 
 
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Posted: #125
+13.5 now on 5 dimes
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