PENN STATE @ PURDUE: If the books keep spitting out lines like this, we have to keep taking them.

2016 Record: 22-8

The Pick:

PURDUE +14 over PENN STATE

Two full TD's at home? Obviously this line is a product of the most public win of the weekend, endlessly looped on ESPN.

Yes I'll take all those points....with Penn State coming off what is by far biggest win for the program since the Paterno scandal. And if anyone has noticed they've played three straight home games and 4 of 5 at home. Tough to travel after that, especially after celebrating for a day or two.

Nebraska couldn't even cover 14 at home in a significant revenge spot from last year (Purdue beat them 55-45) as an undefeated team and after Purdue gifted them a TD in the first 15 seconds as well. After all that Nebraska only scores 27 total.

I'm taken aback at this line. Did anyone watch the Nebraska game? Blough was 25/43 for 309 and was 80% in the first half.

The coaching change is like a huge shot in the arm to this team. I saw them running plays they haven't run in 4 years.

14 points at home is huge. Gladly taking all of it.

This game just sets up nicely for a cover. Nothing easy but there's so much insurance for a newly inspired Purdue team without the shadow of Hazell holding them back!

Will add to my card, Scal, thank you!

usually follow you blind but cashed big on penn due to my instant hate of the other teams mascot on the burbon in my belly. will likely follow but cant pull trigger right away. wouldnt you think this line climbs during the week as folks keep watching espn and nittnay lions eating brutus the wierdazz human? :)

I actually would have waited on this one scal....   I think it goes above 14 at some point during the week.  

Purdue is a bad team. They covered against Nebraska because Nebraska was looking ahead to Wisconsin. This could end up like Iowa's game against Purude. But will tail anyways.

BOL btw

Agree...like purdue, but waiting to c if the # creeps upward.

Hope you didn't bet it yet Scal. No way that line drops below 14. Think you should be able to get 16.5-17 later in the week as the pub will pound Pedo State. Bol 

You guys are more than free to wait for a better spot.

It jumped from 12.5 to 14 in about 2 minutes on 5Dimes.

Opened at 10.5 on BetOnline.

I'm fine with the 14.

I think once some of the bigger bettors start to understand how well Purdue performed against Nebraska, and their bets, possibly swallowing up some Purdue action, may cause this line to go to 13.5 which is obviously below the 2 TD's I more than will take.

Last week UCF opened at -2.5 and I never saw it again so I was happy to jump here.

Correction: *2016 Record: 23-8 (74%)

Didn't include the Jets win. Not like it matters but I like to rub it into the trolls.

Purdue already back down to -12.5 on 5 Dimes guys...

5dimes has $500 limit right now for me for the college games. I am guessing its because its early. Probably all your followers went in and put some bets and at that low limit line will move easily. You won't know the real line until later into the week when the limits go up. But i doubt 5dimes will give me more than $1k limit on this game for me. 5dimes haven't let me bet more than $1k on football sides since week 2...not even on game day.

you have a fixation on Purdue,  hilarious  no way that is your favorite bet on this board Scal, no way, I don't believe it regardless of what you say, can't do it

I'm telling ya, ya may not see 14 again. If you see 14.5 I'll be floored. That is a sick number Ian!

It is my favorite game!

Apparently these bettors have no idea what fight Purdue put up in Lincoln which is leaps and bounds beyond anything seen under Hazell.

These squares simply don't watch the games, see Purdue at any number and fade them.

That was appropriate under Hazell but things have changed very quickly!

And what's great is that all of Purdue shi* metrics are so terrible, when these guys datamine and run their simulations, they get Purdue losing by 30. Not the case. Not in this game! Things have changed! Look at what Purdue did with Iowa. Down 35-7, they fought like hell and almost got it inside the -11 with 5 minutes left to play, only falling 3 outside the number in a blowout.

With Purdue, you get the 'lose respectably' mentality too which helps you cover big spreads. And this spread is big. Maryland was only giving 10. Penn State is better than Maryland but they are coming off such an electric win.

Not only that, but Purdue had one goal this year: A bowl of any kind.

To lock that up, you need 6 wins. Lose this game and go to 3-5 and you have to go 3-1 to close out the year. They are going to fight to win this. Not cover, but win. They will fight. And with 2 TD's and a fight, we are good to go. 

 Not a game I'd play. It may cover but it's just not one I'm lookin at.

well it is certainly "let down" spot of the year with Penn St after that shocking upset of the Buckeyes

GL, Ill be joining you 

Purdue is not as bad as I originally thought. Watched Nebraska game in full. No dumb luck hanging in and covering that spread. David Blough looks like a gamer. It will be very hard to replicate that kind of emotion playing at home in front of the white out crowd that Penn State has this past weekend. I'm starting to come around to the idea of betting on Purdue.

Thank you for your  last picks!! You are making me loads of cash.

a) some people are just perpetually unhappy and hate to see other people succeed.
b) some people want someone to blame when any of their picks lose
c) some people (*cough* touts *cough*) dont want people to successfully post free winners and will do anything to run them off.

I was going to mention the diaper fire that is Fresno State, but, they too, go the memo, and fired their inept coach. Too bad.....couldn't cover vs. Utah State last weekend......

I thought the same thing and bet it accordingly. Purdue showed signs last week..played with discipline and actually competed for 4 quarters.

In the preseason, I put this game in the winnable column. May be taking a shot on the ML as well.

Interesting. I was definitely going to look into fading Penn State after that big win. They are ripe for a letdown and they haven't been good outside of Happy Valley.