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PENN STATE @ PURDUE: If the books keep spitting out lines like this, we have to keep taking them.

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Posts: 250

Addicted2Action

Prospect

Joined: May, 2016

Posts: 63

Posted: Oct. 24, 2016 - 10:33 PM ET #51

I just have to take the time to thank you scal..Ive quietly watched your plays, then quietly tailed your plays, then I even had the audacity to call you out on a few (in game mind you) when they weren't going as planned ( most ended up hitting) If there's one thing I do know, I trust you. You dont have to do this, share your insight, not just blah blah insight either. The kind of insight you don't get from other cappers, love how you get into the real things. Like digging into what's really going on with the teams programs from week to week. you must have played or coached. Cause it seems you have a good feel for how these swings work.. anyway much thanks

Rockytop21

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 629

Posted: Oct. 24, 2016 - 10:57 PM ET #52

Scal I don't chime in much but for what it's worth I usually do better in MLB, especially (the playoffs) than anything else. Maybe by default cause I suck at most of the other sports, BUT I absolutely love the value with the INDIANS series price. Two great managers here but I will side terry francona

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 24, 2016 - 11:05 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by jasperslegs:

Penn State's remaining schedule is somewhat easy @Purdue, Iowa, @Indiana, @Rutgers, Michgan State. Penn state can push for a big bowl game by winning it out and could finish in the top ten ranking. Penn State Coach stated to reporters today (monday) that his team is already put the Ohio st win behind them and they are focusing to win out the reminder of the season.

I have been following Scalabrine and I am following him here blindly with Purdue but much smaller than usual amount.

The main reason I don't like this bet is the public consensus in every site shows Purdue as the consensus backed with over 60% in every site. Whenever public is on the dog ATS at 60% or higher clip, the dog fails to cover at whopping rate of 59%.

The line will most likely go back to +14 on before Saturday but i already put my money on +14 and still not confident.

Hey. Please take a little advice to help you get from a place I was once at.

The consensus numbers on this site are meaningless. They are from covers users and have no monetary value attached to them.

See here:

https://contests.covers.com/Consensus/MatchupConsensusDetails/b92cddb3-52d2-4c99-b2fd-a690003df881?showExperts=False

That consensus number on the front page is made of a minuscule 240 picks, again, picks that have nothing to do with money.

That is why so many guys here argue about consensus. This site gives you such numbers that have nothing to do cash flow (i.e. what you really want).

We can surmise more public is on Purdue because of the line drop but I wouldn't use this site as proof of that in any way!

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 24, 2016 - 11:26 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by Addicted2Action:

I just have to take the time to thank you scal..Ive quietly watched your plays, then quietly tailed your plays, then I even had the audacity to call you out on a few (in game mind you) when they weren't going as planned ( most ended up hitting) If there's one thing I do know, I trust you. You dont have to do this, share your insight, not just blah blah insight either. The kind of insight you don't get from other cappers, love how you get into the real things. Like digging into what's really going on with the teams programs from week to week. you must have played or coached. Cause it seems you have a good feel for how these swings work.. anyway much thanks

Oh I remember you. We've gotten into it.

No hard feelings.

Thanks for the kind words.

I've played sports but that has had zero affect on my capping. In fact it's been a negative. It gave me false confidence I knew more than I did.

I will say I've changed a few things with regard to the way I cap. And when I made those changes with regard to how I cap and what I focus on, my winning percentage got over 70%. And it hasn't come down for almost two years now. And I don't think other people do those things. They do some of them but not all. When up do all of them, you win...consistently. The obvious thing I do is focus on terrible teams. The lines are awful because the books get no action on these games. I LOVE looking away from teams like Bama and toward teams like Wagner College in Staten Island (yes I bet on/against them but don't post them in particular because that is far too cryptic a pick, even for those that know me) because the lines on some of their games are laughable. So are pro wrestling lines and other exotics. There are some political lines out right now which are 100% winners that I've piled on.

Enough rambling. The bottom line is this: Let's win this fu**ing Purdue game from +11.5 to +14 so we all cash. End of story!

Jailbait7127

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 6802

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 12:12 AM ET #55

Posted a play in the NFL forum for you buddy. Thanks for the pick

You are the best capper here.

I remember making an account because your picks in the NBA forum were ridiculously good. It was like you foresaw the game beforehand. Thanks again buddy

wheaty

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 13947

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 12:42 AM ET #56

I like the pick. But I'm gonna wait it out. I think by game time it'll be closer to 14 than to 11. And if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. Gonna also play the ml for a small amount I think.

I don't care what Franklin says or does. It's going to take more than a week for those guys to come down off that W vs Ohio State. And maybe they still cover vs Purdue. But I'm damn sure gonna pay to see it

Scal

Manny_Fizzle

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 1137

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 12:48 AM ET #57

Love the pic scal. You are one of the best cappers here my friend. Thanks for sharing brotha.

JK4507

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2012

Posts: 717

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 12:55 AM ET #58

Love your posts. And follow-up

risktaker

MVP

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 18970

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 6:32 AM ET #59

thanks for the pick scal im IN good luck to us

Badger66

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 6243

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 10:15 AM ET #60

Purdue QB was great in the 1st half - not so much in the 2nd half - part of that was Nebraska played better in the 2nd half. I agree with you - the line seems out of kilter - I will be on Purdue as well. Also was impressed with the Purdue interim coach - believe the Purdue kids will play for him.

usikbasterd

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 3205

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 11:29 AM ET #61

DAMN SCAL THE LINE IS AT +11.5 NOW...I ALWAYS READ YOUR POSTS LATE...I DIDNT FOLLOW LAST WEEK ON UCF CUZ I GOT SCARED OF THE LINE JUMP BUT IM UNLOADING ON THIS ONE

LETS GET THIS MONEY

fts1409

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 3997

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 11:41 AM ET #62

91% tix on Purdue at pregame. Their nos have been beneficial to me.

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 1:11 PM ET #63

Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:

Posted a play in the NFL forum for you buddy. Thanks for the pick

You are the best capper here.

I remember making an account because your picks in the NBA forum were ridiculously good. It was like you foresaw the game beforehand. Thanks again buddy

Appreciate it Jail. Stay on the site. We go all the back to my "Tank-A-Palooza" posts in the NBA! And when Byron was coaching the Cavs into oblivion in his first year....seems like decades ago!

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 1:12 PM ET #64

Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :

I like the pick. But I'm gonna wait it out. I think by game time it'll be closer to 14 than to 11. And if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. Gonna also play the ml for a small amount I think.

Scal

Ya may as well wait Wheaty. I agree. The line can't really get any worse right now! But 14 isn't coming back.

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 1:14 PM ET #65

Many Jk appreciate it!

Risk! Back from the ashes!!

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 1:19 PM ET #66

Quote Originally Posted by Badger66:

Purdue QB was great in the 1st half - not so much in the 2nd half - part of that was Nebraska played better in the 2nd half. I agree with you - the line seems out of kilter - I will be on Purdue as well. Also was impressed with the Purdue interim coach - believe the Purdue kids will play for him.

I'll tell you what's also out of kilter: That Nebraska line.

Look at the line: Iowa opened getting 3 at home vs. Wisky. Add 6 if you switch the game to Wisky. Which brings us to Iowa +9.

And Nebraska opened at +8.5 at Wisky??? So Nebraska gets essentially the same line (around a dead number of 9) as Iowa? Really?

I know Nebraska has played poor competition this year but wow. To put them, undefeated, on the same level as Iowa who lost to North Dakota State and Northwestern and put up 14 pts on rutgers? Wow.

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 1:20 PM ET #67

Usik

91% of the tickets? That's outrageous and false.

mbialowas

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 4681

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 1:34 PM ET #68

Hi Scal,

Thinking about tailing, you are on fire this year!! Need a little more data and larger sample size though. What was your record last year in College Football?

njsupreme1

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2004

Posts: 2754

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 1:34 PM ET #69

Guys....Please listen to Scal when he is referencing those betting percentages; they mean nothing and certainly should not be relied upon in any way. The arguments about tracking what side the "public" is on are as old as this website (in fact that is how I stumbled on Covers years ago because of Wagerline which was a site that was all about these betting percentages). If you are basing your picks solely on what side you think the public is on (and who really knows that anyway?), you will burn through your bankroll very fast!

JuiceBook

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2016

Posts: 1145

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 1:42 PM ET #70

much appreciated scal

madisonmike

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 672

Posted: Oct. 25, 2016 - 2:19 PM ET #71

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I'll tell you what's also out of kilter: That Nebraska line.

Look at the line: Iowa opened getting 3 at home vs. Wisky. Add 6 if you switch the game to Wisky. Which brings us to Iowa +9.

And Nebraska opened at +8.5 at Wisky??? So Nebraska gets essentially the same line (around a dead number of 9) as Iowa? Really?

I know Nebraska has played poor competition this year but wow. To put them, undefeated, on the same level as Iowa who lost to North Dakota State and Northwestern and put up 14 pts on rutgers? Wow.

If you look at SOS and efficiency ratings Iowa and Nebraska actually line up quite well next to each other.