Posted:
#126
Hey Scal, any insight on USC/CaL? Leaning USC. Appreciate what you do, been tailing you for a few weeks....
BBB
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PENN STATE @ PURDUE: If the books keep spitting out lines like this, we have to keep taking them.
Posted:
#127
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:
The Boise clunker vs BYU was surprising to me. I think that they thought it was time to be the Boise of old and roll up someone on the blue carpet....and it didn't happen. But, they did turn the ball over 5 times vs BYU and still win. That is worth something.
If BSU plays clean then they will hang 40+. WYO is 123rd in pass yds allowed...against that schedule? If Rypien stays upright he throws for 350.
IMO Boise will have it in cruise control ATS until the @ AFA game at the end of the year. Oddsmakers have given AFA a ton of respect this season even though they dump periodically. That one could be close.
Bottom line: BSU has dreams of the playoff....more than likely the New Year's six....that means they need to win big. So, if possible they will run it up on the Cowboys. Should be able to get it done.
As for the Nebraska play, if the homers are calling asskicking, then it may be so. I try not to argue with regional guys about their teams because they often have some insight.
But, Wisconsin is way overbought here....I wouldn't be surprised at all to see some 10's showing up tomorrow evening after the touts release their picks. IMO the points will be a factor in this one.
Then I think the play is tease NEB up to +15 and tease Boise down to -7. I'm comfortable with that after all these opinions.
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Posted:
#128
Quote Originally Posted by macmac84:
taking Penn St and love anything under 14. The thesis of this thread is confusing. The Purdue/Nebraska implied score was 42-17. The Purdue Offense underperformed the line and on a yard per play basis had one of its worse games. After hitting a 88 yard pass play at 10:40 in the 2nd quarter- Purdue was shut out the rest of the game. The surprise actually was on the defensive side. After a near historic level of ineptitude against the run- giving up 365 6.9 Iowa/ 315 6.8 Illinois and 400/ 8.7 Maryland- Purdue was a respectable 157/4.2 against Nebraska.
taking Penn St and love anything under 14. The thesis of this thread is confusing. The Purdue/Nebraska implied score was 42-17. The Purdue Offense underperformed the line and on a yard per play basis had one of its worse games. After hitting a 88 yard pass play at 10:40 in the 2nd quarter- Purdue was shut out the rest of the game. The surprise actually was on the defensive side. After a near historic level of ineptitude against the run- giving up 365 6.9 Iowa/ 315 6.8 Illinois and 400/ 8.7 Maryland- Purdue was a respectable 157/4.2 against Nebraska.
But Nebraska had its biggest game next week against Wisconsin- sat Westerkamp(declared he good play Monday against Wisconsin).
On the flip side the big change for Penn St was having 2 of its
Starting Linebackers back for the Ohio State game. PSU had all 3 starting LBs hurt for most of the year. Even without 2/3 of its LB core this is a top 25 Defense and Saturday held OSU a yard under its normal YPR. And PSU has played the 6th hardest schedule- facing an easy remaining schedule good easily play its way into a New Years Bowl game. Penn St is both the best defensive squad Purdue has played but depending on the measure also the best offensive team(without Westerkamp I would rate PSU ahead of Nebraska). The PSU front 7 dominated OSU especially in the 2nd half with P. Sickles was back from a 1st half suspension.
Starting Linebackers back for the Ohio State game. PSU had all 3 starting LBs hurt for most of the year. Even without 2/3 of its LB core this is a top 25 Defense and Saturday held OSU a yard under its normal YPR. And PSU has played the 6th hardest schedule- facing an easy remaining schedule good easily play its way into a New Years Bowl game. Penn St is both the best defensive squad Purdue has played but depending on the measure also the best offensive team(without Westerkamp I would rate PSU ahead of Nebraska). The PSU front 7 dominated OSU especially in the 2nd half with P. Sickles was back from a 1st half suspension.
This will be the healthiest PSU has been this year/ an offensive line that has made great strides this year/ a star RB in Barkley(8 yards a carry against OSU). I see PSU over 30 plus points and able to hold Purdue to around 17- call it 38-17 PSU>
Assessing Purdue on a yards per play basis on offense without watching the game is precisely why you miss the point in taking a Purdue side.
And after all the Penn State accolades, although valid, you conveniently avoid stating they needed to score 17 unanswered to win that game. Again, that says a lot.
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Posted:
#130
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:
The Boise clunker vs BYU was surprising to me. I think that they thought it was time to be the Boise of old and roll up someone on the blue carpet....and it didn't happen. But, they did turn the ball over 5 times vs BYU and still win. That is worth something. If BSU plays clean then they will hang 40+. WYO is 123rd in pass yds allowed...against that schedule? If Rypien stays upright he throws for 350.IMO Boise will have it in cruise control ATS until the @ AFA game at the end of the year. Oddsmakers have given AFA a ton of respect this season even though they dump periodically. That one could be close.Bottom line: BSU has dreams of the playoff....more than likely the New Year's six....that means they need to win big. So, if possible they will run it up on the Cowboys. Should be able to get it done.As for the Nebraska play, if the homers are calling asskicking, then it may be so. I try not to argue with regional guys about their teams because they often have some insight. But, Wisconsin is way overbought here....I wouldn't be surprised at all to see some 10's showing up tomorrow evening after the touts release their picks. IMO the points will be a factor in this one.
Then I think the play is tease NEB up to +15 and tease Boise down to -7. I'm comfortable with that after all these opinions.The Boise clunker vs BYU was surprising to me. I think that they thought it was time to be the Boise of old and roll up someone on the blue carpet....and it didn't happen. But, they did turn the ball over 5 times vs BYU and still win. That is worth something. If BSU plays clean then they will hang 40+. WYO is 123rd in pass yds allowed...against that schedule? If Rypien stays upright he throws for 350.IMO Boise will have it in cruise control ATS until the @ AFA game at the end of the year. Oddsmakers have given AFA a ton of respect this season even though they dump periodically. That one could be close.Bottom line: BSU has dreams of the playoff....more than likely the New Year's six....that means they need to win big. So, if possible they will run it up on the Cowboys. Should be able to get it done.As for the Nebraska play, if the homers are calling asskicking, then it may be so. I try not to argue with regional guys about their teams because they often have some insight. But, Wisconsin is way overbought here....I wouldn't be surprised at all to see some 10's showing up tomorrow evening after the touts release their picks. IMO the points will be a factor in this one.
Good looking teaser
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Posted:
#131
new 
LINE is up to 13.5. If I'm a new bettor, I wouldn't come in for any less than 14 and if you come in, come in moderate to small. I can even see 14.5 looming (apologies to BWS who predicted this). Jake Replogle was supposed to be back and now he's doubtful. He's their best DL.
Not liking the confidence Penn State coach Franklin and Personell are exhibiting through the week. And these two Defensive linemen who came back. 30 total tackles between them. Good lord.
i want to be clear. This pick is not the UFC pick. It's not the Jets over Baltimore. It's more along the lines of Thunder Sixers where we are going to need a very strong finish to utilize a big spread. Blough needs to have a very big day and most importantly, Penn state cannot under any circumstances, start fast. So let's take it slow as I said in the OP.
I'll likely be posting a second pick because I'm super-square in the NFL this week and no one needs help getting on the square train.
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Posted:
#135
Late money pushed it over 14...things are going to have to go very bad for Purdue to get crushed here.
Like I said in the preseason, this game falls into the winnable column......but Scal is right, a fast start from PSU (14-0 ish) is about as deep as you can go without things snowballing.
Purdue needs to rack up a few first downs early and take the air out of everything...a nice stable system and limit volatility. If they can do that, PSU will begin to press.....Franklin is 0-4 ATS as an away favorite at PSU....this has clunker written all over it.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Posted:
#138
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:
Late money pushed it over 14...things are going to have to go very bad for Purdue to get crushed here.
Like I said in the preseason, this game falls into the winnable column......but Scal is right, a fast start from PSU (14-0 ish) is about as deep as you can go without things snowballing.
Purdue needs to rack up a few first downs early and take the air out of everything...a nice stable system and limit volatility. If they can do that, PSU will begin to press.....Franklin is 0-4 ATS as an away favorite at PSU....this has clunker written all over it.
Nice 0-4 ATS.
+14.5. Wish I WAS the one that waited!
Get this stat Vern. Purdue MUST avoid the explosive play. This seems obvious but when put up against this stat, it crystalizes even more:
Penn State finishing with 275 total yards against OSU.
They had 287 yards on just 13 'explosive plays' (has various definitions). On the other 45 plays, they lost yards.
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Posted:
#141
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Nice 0-4 ATS.
+14.5. Wish I WAS the one that waited!
Get this stat Vern. Purdue MUST avoid the explosive play. This seems obvious but when put up against this stat, it crystalizes even more:
Penn State finishing with 275 total yards against OSU.
They had 287 yards on just 13 'explosive plays' (has various definitions). On the other 45 plays, they lost yards.
Wow. They ran 45 plays for a negative balance. That is brutal.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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scal, you're the best.
Posted:
#145
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :
Well, not that this matters but I'm off Purdue now. My numbers are now for Penn St and I think I'll be able to get Purdue at a better number live or at HT.
Well, not that this matters but I'm off Purdue now. My numbers are now for Penn St and I think I'll be able to get Purdue at a better number live or at HT.
Not real sure I can play Penn St in this spot. So I guess I'm gonna wait and see how this game starts
GL Scal
Gl wheaty. Usually we are riding together but today you're the Rock and I'm vin diesel.
T6
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Posted:
#149
Issue i see here is that alot of the public squares your talking about are taking purdue at +14 and a public dog is the worst dog to take. Penn has a great offense, probably better than Nebraska if you take a look at it closely, also the defense is the difference for penn state. They will come to play knowing they are def in the hunt for the big ten title game now that they have beaten ohio state. They did lose to michigan however michigan plays that same ohio state team at the end of the year and 1 slip in between now and then and penn state is in the drivers seat. alot needs to happen for that to play out however penn needs to come out and play. Last week that damn head coach of purdue almost was crying at halftime.. and they came out 2nd half and let go of a big lead and lost. so i will trust the coaching of franklin his offense, bob shoop defense and the fact these guys are FANTASTIC vs purdue 11-2 overall and 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 matchups. You are a good capper bud so look forward to your posts
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