NCAA week 8

Wisconsin 6 Illinois (45.5)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 7

We may at some point have to realize that Illinois might be ok ....technically made a bowl game last yr - a 2485349085 unit megalocks loser .....and are well positioned to do that again using the ultimate strategy of #shitcanning the head coach right before the season....In any event other than the NC road game they have played pretty well - lucky to beat Neb late but even then it was a close game - lost by 9 to iowa who is trucking people now....D ranked #30....Played a slightly more tougher sched than Wisc even tho they played Bama.....Cannot really find a reason to fade them because their off in balance at home and line seems about right.....Wisconsin D is looking good yet again - but MEGALOCKS SULTRY STAT OF THE DAY - Wisc is ranked #90 in rushing and #47 in passing...Your boy Stave is playing well at QB and they are starting to become a decent passing team......This is where we see the issue - statistically Illinois is #17 in pass eff D but they only have 6 sacks ALL YR and Wisc should be able to pass effectively.

Summary. Lean ULL but we are not playing the game. OH WAIT - we have talked about that losing lean all week....How about a lean to the Wisc TT at 26.5 or lower.....Weather looks similar to the Mich St game with bit less rain forecasted - bit of rain and med strength winds fwiw.

mega 

Jules  Looking into that Wyoming game....could we possibly have 3 Wyoming plays in one year  GL this wk bro

BWS - yes the MCWEAPON is back ....Boise gonna score some points - GL

soonboomer

Relax - thx man ....very happy you agree with E Carolina....Can totally see the merit in Temple so it should be an interesting game....I might have been brainwashed by the EC coach press conf audio I love that guy ran through a wall in my laundry room for him I was so pumped.......Clemson feels good - I have been wrong about Chips all yr - also lean that way. GL !!

Penn St 6.5 Maryland (47)  *** game at Baltimore ***

Megalocks line 5 (assuming 0 for HF - use what you like)

Sagarin 4 (assuming 0 for HF - use what you like)

This game has us very intruiged - even though Maryland is usually on our STAY CLEAR OF THEIR GAMES LIST.....We lean that way in this one....First off - the bad. Their D is horrible. I do not know what to say - need to look at in more detail but they have up 30/G last yr this yr looks same or worse. Their QB play is putting it nicely - "sketchy"....But at least Rowe is on the bench - I mean 12 int already this yr WTF....Hills looks like a better fit - even ran for well over 150 vs ohio st....Running game looks fine and Penn St has had a couple off games vs the run.....The good ? Or is it bad ? Always like the coaching change angle to get the guys to hopefully play like the hair is on fire  but Maryland goes with Locksley - who at New Mexico - when he wasn't punching assistant coaches in the face or getting sued for sexual assault  he was leading the Lobos to a 2-24 record which is pretty hard to do if you really think about it......Upside? like we said - running game. Hopefully motivated. They have also played a brutal schedule much tougher than penn st - in addition to getting B Green early on - their last 3 games were W Virginia Michigan Ohio St  and looking at Penn St who has played 2 road games and 5 creampuff home games .....what do we REALLY know about these 2 teams and how they compare? Biggest worry is Penn St RB Barkley who is hitting for 8 yds a pop and 567Y in only 4 games....5th game had 1 carry.....Hackenpuke has been better at QB for penn only 2 int but just not a weapon at all.....Final bonus - Maryland freakshow punt returner already set Big 10 record this yr for most PR y in a game - all it takes is a big return somewhere to maybe turn the tide or cover.

Summary. Lean Maryland but would want 7+. Still looking at total.

mega

Plays

Clemson -4 (would play up to -6.5)

East Carolina -3 (would not play any higher than -3)

Table of Contents for Write-Ups

- Miami / Clemson

- Tuesday game

- Thursday games

- Friday games

- REQUEST LINE (SM vs Charlotte; Wash St vs Az; Kent vs BG)

- Big 10

UP NEXT -  SEC 

 dish

Alabama 15.5 Tennessee (53.5)

Megalocks line 17

Sagarin 16

Coming off back to back BAMA WINNERS  gonna take the foot off the gas for this one....First off - the total is very confusing to us - on the one hand Tenn D has been very disappointing giving it up to every FBS team 30 31 28 24 31 points allowed but they have played one of the toughest schedules (#5....Bama #7).....They have also scored 20 in every game this year.....Missed the 56 to go under now still wondering about 53 and change???

Bama 0-4 ATS at home this year...but as we have said - think they are rounding in to an UFADEABLE DESTRUCTIVE FORCE given how their D is playing and the balance they have on offense....If somehow this bad boy fell below 14 we would grab the Tide....Not going to take the Vols - 13th in SEC D yds/game and 12th in yards per play D....As the game moves along just hard to imagine Bama not getting a nice lead and then keeping it......Wildcard? Not an expert on the matter (Chad77 where are you??) but the Q status of Bama C is a big concern to us.....last we heard Saban said he should be fine by gameday....just never know with concussion protocol these days.

Summary. No lean on the side at this number. Still poking around at an under possibility maybe Jim Heist or somebody releases the over then we can go OVER the TOP with an under play. Nothing yet tho.

mega

LSU 17 WKU (67)

Megalocks line 17

Sagarin 15.5

Very tough game to cap....LSU has given up 19 21 24 28 24 22 this yr - and given up 11 td only 6 int.....in a letdown spot ? maybe maybe not....but have played a tough schedule....WK should be able to put up some points.....but we just cannot back a team like WK on the road at LSU with the kind a brutal D that they have not to mention playing the #108 schedule - one team with a decent D - Vandy - held them to 14 points and less than 300Y - yes first game of the season - but do people really expect WK to just sit back there and throw 70 times and compete in the this game ? stud TE is out/doubtful which hurts their MIDDLE MATRICULATION game - Allen OFY at RB for a while now new top guy is Q....Now we bring up those injuries only to say - they are already a bit banged up - as little motivation as you say LSU has to kill them - what about WK getting out of LSU without losing a ton of guys to injuries? They have CONF play to think about - run the table they are in the title game- already lost a shot at undefeated season....SO.....when LSU scores at will - and how can they not? get up a couple TDs or up 17 3Q - how does WK still compete with all their starters and go full tilt? of course they will "try" but worried about the WK MOTIVATION if LSU gets up early do not think the back door will be as open as you think in this one.....We think WK better stay within striking range or this gets super ugly. Just our 2 cents. If anything might look at the over but 67 seems about right? 42-25 type game.

Summary. Lean LSU at -16 or better. No lean on total yet.

mega

that is 100% exactly true !! thanks man.

wiseguy

billyh  generally speaking - we recommend our plays IF and only IF you agree with the analysis. That is why we just do not post picks. Some guys like lists. Other guys want to know "why". Neither is good or bad - we just want to give some rationale - typically for both sides - and let the people decide. We pretty much never put money on our leans although we would be lying if we told you we never made the odd degenerate action bet!

Good example this wk is LSU. We lean that way and told you why. If you are undecided - just ignore what we have to say. If you lean LSU - maybe that analysis pushes you to them. If you like WKU and do not agree with the analysis - you probably feel even better about your WKU pick - so go for it ! We say always go with your gut because it is your cashola. Thanks for the question - GL !

hey bro - That is on my short list for sure as crazy as it sounds - Gonna do some more reading tonight while watching temple game....I am greedy for 7/7.5 ! GL.....maybe take half size play now and if it ever goes 7.5 add another half size.....keep in mind tho - I am still on the fence may not play it FWIW. GL

.....totally get it buddy. Never bad to sit a game out.

Mississippi St 12 Kentucky (55)

Megalocks line 11

Sagarin 12

Have to admit - not a huge believer in Kentucky but they have played decent football....one thing is certain - they like to keep things interesting....winning margins in Kentucky games this year??? 7 4 5 8 7 3 ....so that means Small Sample Size Guy will have a monster bomb lock on Kentucky...That and the fact that they are pretty scrappy and no real weakness anywhere - they are just kinda avg-good everywhere as far as we can see and tell when watching them play....Not sure they are gonna be able to score much on the miss st D tho and we think Miss St is gonna be able to score some points and do some good work in the passing game - Dak playing well and Kentucky just finished looking very avg against the pass against AUBURN sooooooooooo......this game seems like a tossup ATS could go either way.

Summary. Nah.

mega

*** also Stoops 1-9 SU away with Kentucky (1-0) this yr - Only played one roadie this year ***

just FWIW