Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (-3.5) vs Stanford (lean slightly with Va Tech): I already made this bet a while ago and got some at -1 and -2. Now I really can't recommend a play on this game and I was contemplating trying to middle some of my bet, but may hold on to it.
Stanford has an offense that I had rated +1.83 yards per play better than average throughout the season, but they were even better against good defenses and in their last 6 games. Also, they are expecting to return man and big play WR Chris Owusu. I gave them a +2.00 yards per play on offense in this game. On defense, they were surprisingly strong all season (+0.97). They were +1.05 vs the top 7 offenses they faced, but only +0.39 better than average defensively vs the 3 top offenses they faced (USC, Oregon, Zona). Virginia Tech certainly has one of the elite offenses in the country, so I had to take that into consideration. After the Wazzu game, Stanford's d performed very well over the last 5 games (+1.42), so they were playing their best towards the end of the season.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech's offense was not too shabby in it's own right as they performed +1.43 yards per play on offense over the course of the season and +1.45 yppl vs the top 6 defenses they faced. QB Taylor performed very well against top defenses this season (Boise, Miami, FL, FSU, UNC), so I expect him to have a good game despite Stanford's strong pass D. Virginia tech likes to throw alot of deep balls (which is why Taylor doesn't have a great completion %, but has a very high yards per attempt over the course of his career). He does a good job of limiting the INT's however as both teams protect the ball very well. Virginia Tech's defense is going to have a very hard time stopping Stanford's offense however as they were only +0.34 over the course of the year and an even worse +0.09 over their last 5 games. They did pretty well vs the Top 4 offenses they faced as they were very impressive against Boise and UNC, although had trouble with Miami and FSU. The unit also had a strong success rate which means they may have been a little unlucky on a few long runs/passes. I rate them at +0.55 for this game as I think they are better than their numbers dictate and performed better vs the top 4 offenses (+0.75 median defensive rating.). Stanford's pass d was a little bit stronger than their run defense in my calculations and they were relatively worse stopping good run offenses which is a concern as Virginia tech likes to set up the play action deep passing attack with alot of running plays.
While Virginia tech has a better special teams that is pretty much negated by the fact Stanford figures to run more plays than Virginia Tech. In fact, my numbers have Stanford running 7 more plays than Virginia Tech and gaining almost 100 more yards (466.29 - 369.03). The success rates favor Stanford, but they are very close. Stanford was successful on 57% of plays against a +4.955 SOS, while VT was successful on 57.1% of plays against a +2.542 SOS. My ppg math model compensated for SOS favors Stanford by 5.5 points which is almost exactly the same as my strict math model which is why I will lean with Stanford (although not really worth a play IMO at 3.5, unless you can get no juice). Gl to those that play it.
Math model: Stanford -5.68/61.81
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (-3.5) vs Stanford (lean slightly with Va Tech): I already made this bet a while ago and got some at -1 and -2. Now I really can't recommend a play on this game and I was contemplating trying to middle some of my bet, but may hold on to it.
Stanford has an offense that I had rated +1.83 yards per play better than average throughout the season, but they were even better against good defenses and in their last 6 games. Also, they are expecting to return man and big play WR Chris Owusu. I gave them a +2.00 yards per play on offense in this game. On defense, they were surprisingly strong all season (+0.97). They were +1.05 vs the top 7 offenses they faced, but only +0.39 better than average defensively vs the 3 top offenses they faced (USC, Oregon, Zona). Virginia Tech certainly has one of the elite offenses in the country, so I had to take that into consideration. After the Wazzu game, Stanford's d performed very well over the last 5 games (+1.42), so they were playing their best towards the end of the season.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech's offense was not too shabby in it's own right as they performed +1.43 yards per play on offense over the course of the season and +1.45 yppl vs the top 6 defenses they faced. QB Taylor performed very well against top defenses this season (Boise, Miami, FL, FSU, UNC), so I expect him to have a good game despite Stanford's strong pass D. Virginia tech likes to throw alot of deep balls (which is why Taylor doesn't have a great completion %, but has a very high yards per attempt over the course of his career). He does a good job of limiting the INT's however as both teams protect the ball very well. Virginia Tech's defense is going to have a very hard time stopping Stanford's offense however as they were only +0.34 over the course of the year and an even worse +0.09 over their last 5 games. They did pretty well vs the Top 4 offenses they faced as they were very impressive against Boise and UNC, although had trouble with Miami and FSU. The unit also had a strong success rate which means they may have been a little unlucky on a few long runs/passes. I rate them at +0.55 for this game as I think they are better than their numbers dictate and performed better vs the top 4 offenses (+0.75 median defensive rating.). Stanford's pass d was a little bit stronger than their run defense in my calculations and they were relatively worse stopping good run offenses which is a concern as Virginia tech likes to set up the play action deep passing attack with alot of running plays.
While Virginia tech has a better special teams that is pretty much negated by the fact Stanford figures to run more plays than Virginia Tech. In fact, my numbers have Stanford running 7 more plays than Virginia Tech and gaining almost 100 more yards (466.29 - 369.03). The success rates favor Stanford, but they are very close. Stanford was successful on 57% of plays against a +4.955 SOS, while VT was successful on 57.1% of plays against a +2.542 SOS. My ppg math model compensated for SOS favors Stanford by 5.5 points which is almost exactly the same as my strict math model which is why I will lean with Stanford (although not really worth a play IMO at 3.5, unless you can get no juice). Gl to those that play it.
Math model: Stanford -5.68/61.81
Moo -
Curious about your Miami O / Md Tn St viewpoint....
Dont need a whole writeup if you are not ready, but there is a move in the line towards MTSU that I dont understand. I like MiaO here.
Thanks
i like miami, ohio as well, but haven't analyzed it yet. Surprised at line change, doesn't make sense to me. I'll try and post this one tonight.
No bet on Ohio St/Arkansas tonight. Arkansas offense has been sensational all year and their pass offense hasn't seen a dropoff even against the top defenses they've faced. They have MOVED it well on every team they've faced this year. Ohio St has better success rates though and figures to control the ball. Arkansas's weakness defensively was against the run as well, and I'd expect Ohio St to move the ball on the ground pretty well here. I don't really lean anything here. Gun to my head, I'd take ohio st.
Math model says: Ohio St -2.96/58.3
Go Daddy.Com bowl:
Miami, OH (+2) vs Mid Tenn St (1.25 unit on Mia, OH):
We have two teams seemingly coming into this bowl game seemingly playing their best football. This is not often that relevant in bowl games because of the long layoff (the correlation is rather low). The main reason why people are concerned is because Miami, OH coach Haywood has left and they won their super bowl the last game of the year vs NIU. I'm more concerned with the ladder as Miami, OH still has their coordinators in place and interim coaches are now 18-12 ATS in bowl games (1-1 this year).
On offense, Miami was -0.54 yards per play worse than average on the season. However, they were better once highly touted backup QB Boucher took over for the injured dysert. Over the last 3 weeks, they were +0.04 yppl better than average and he improved each week. With the layoff, you'd think he would perform even better and he should not lack focus as he wants to impress the new coaches for next season. Miami, OH's offense was improving even before Boucher took over and over the last 7 weeks of the season, they were +0.02 yppl better than average. Boucher also only threw 1 interception in 120 passing attempts so Miami, OH figures to win the turnover battle.
Miami, OH's defense on the season was -0.02 yppl, but they were much better when star LB Ryan Kennedy was healthy (32 TKLS, 7.5 TFL in only 4 games). He only played the first 3 weeks of the season and then returned for the NIU game (5 tackles, 1.5 TFL & a sack), so it appears he should be healthy for the bowl game. In fact, in the 4 games Kennedy played in, the defense was an astounding +1.22 yards per play better than average. The defense had a few hiccups in the middle of the season but were also missing a number of key starters are the defense during that time frame (DB Stephens, LB Marck, SS Gafford) along with Kennedy. Over the last 6 weeks of the season when the defense was healthier (minus Kennedy), the defense performed 0.04 yards better than average. All of their starters should be ready to go for this game so I expect a good performance.
As far as Middle Tennessee St goes, they were disappointing all year until the last 2 games. Their offense was supposed to get in gear once QB Dasher returned, but he was miserable all season. The offense was -1.07 yppl on the year and with Dasher was no better (-1.08 yppl). While the offense was better over the last 6 weeks (-0.30 yppl), the median outcome for the games Dasher started was a miserable -1.49 yppl. Adding to the problems of moving the ball, Dasher threw interceptions at a very high rate (6.3%), and for his career he has thrown interceptions at a 4.1% clip now. Miami, OH should certainly win the battle of the turnovers.
On defense Middle Tenn was better, but still below average. Over the course of the season they were -0.23 yppl worse than average, but -0.45 yppl over their last 6 games. Their median output was -0.49 yppl worse than average and against the 5 best offenses they faced they were -0.98 worse than average. Miami, OH would be either the 3rd or 4th toughest offense they've faced according to my calculations. So, while the defense was pretty good against very weak competition, against average offenses, they were very suspect.
Middle Tenn St does have a significant edge on special teams, but that is negated by the play advantage and turnover advantage that Miami, OH should hold. Miami, OH also has a significant edge in success rate. Miami, OH was successful on 52.6% of their plays vs a -5.9 SOS, while Mid Tenn was only successful on 48.8% of their plays against a miserable -10.5 SOS.
Even if i use a PPG model for the entire year (which doesn't incorporate Mia, OH's advantage with its current personnel), it would favor Mia, OH by 4.41 points. There is simply no reason for Middle Tenn St to be favored in this game and people are overreacting to the coaching change Miami, OH has made. Both the def coordinator & off coordinator are still at their helms for this game and their is no evidence that interim coaches perform any worse than the actual coaches. Another reason might be because of the MAC's ineptitutde in bowl games in the last 5-6 years, but in my opinion those kinds of things go in cycles and we saw what NIU did to fresno st. Toledo also should have easily won the game vs FIU as they dominated that game statistically and would have won the game if not for 4 turnovers and a goofy hook and ladder at the end of the game.
Math model: Miami, OH -11.2/51.6
I meant to say A&M has the better offense, def, etc.
A little scary that your math model total comes close to the line, but I'm hoping with a month time to prepare; LSU's Def comes through.
LSU's O on the other hand....just sucks.
Going with the under.
Thx for another great writeup! 
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