In Cabo right now so not much time for a writeup. My math model picks oregon -0.6, my ppg model compensated for SOS gets oregon -5.3. My total says 74.46 points so that is about dead on also.
Basically, auburn has a better offense than oregon (+2.2/+1.5), and oregon has a better defense (+1.15/0.75). From there we can see auburn has a very slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but I have oregon running 7 more plays and ending up with a 515.94 - 493.8 yards advantage. Oregon has one of the best special teams in the nation and this is why I have them favored. Turnovers should be close and both teams played top teams pretty similarly to their overall results. Auburn struggled a little bit more vs top flight offenses (+0.30 vs top 3 offenses they faced (bama, arkansas, and georgia), although I took that into account with the 0.75 rating on defense. For the year they were +0.89 yards per play better than average defensively.
Oregon has had a tendency to out play their statistics over the last 2 years which could be variance or could be worth a few points (which is why my ppg model has them 5 pt favorites). The success rates have favored auburn over the course of the year although those are close as well. Either way, I can't really recommend any play on this game. I should have hedged taking Auburn earlier as I had a large wager I made AGAINST oregon winning the title game a while back (at -150), so now I'm in trouble. I'm going to put some money on Oregon ML now, just so I can't lose my ass on this game and think that is the way I would lean if I was forced to choose. Good luck for those that play it, I liked Oregon at +3/+3.5 and some reason waited on it thinking public would continue to back Auburn, but seems like the books don't care. I missed the boat on that one.
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BCS TITLE GAME: Oregon (PK) vs Auburn:
In Cabo right now so not much time for a writeup. My math model picks oregon -0.6, my ppg model compensated for SOS gets oregon -5.3. My total says 74.46 points so that is about dead on also.
Basically, auburn has a better offense than oregon (+2.2/+1.5), and oregon has a better defense (+1.15/0.75). From there we can see auburn has a very slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but I have oregon running 7 more plays and ending up with a 515.94 - 493.8 yards advantage. Oregon has one of the best special teams in the nation and this is why I have them favored. Turnovers should be close and both teams played top teams pretty similarly to their overall results. Auburn struggled a little bit more vs top flight offenses (+0.30 vs top 3 offenses they faced (bama, arkansas, and georgia), although I took that into account with the 0.75 rating on defense. For the year they were +0.89 yards per play better than average defensively.
Oregon has had a tendency to out play their statistics over the last 2 years which could be variance or could be worth a few points (which is why my ppg model has them 5 pt favorites). The success rates have favored auburn over the course of the year although those are close as well. Either way, I can't really recommend any play on this game. I should have hedged taking Auburn earlier as I had a large wager I made AGAINST oregon winning the title game a while back (at -150), so now I'm in trouble. I'm going to put some money on Oregon ML now, just so I can't lose my ass on this game and think that is the way I would lean if I was forced to choose. Good luck for those that play it, I liked Oregon at +3/+3.5 and some reason waited on it thinking public would continue to back Auburn, but seems like the books don't care. I missed the boat on that one.
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