I dont know why either - and the announcers never said a word about it (to my recollection).
Burke missed a lot of passes just by bad open throws.
That was a very strange game. Glad I passed.
GL
Glad I bet it (just b/c I won), but I would not want to do it again. Those announcers were horrid.
We can only wish.
A playoff would have assured an epic matchup. I can not stand the fact that college football doesn't have anywhere between 8-16 teams go at it.
In a perfect world.....
LAS VEGAS BOWL:
Boise St -17 (no lean) vs Utah: Boise St has been absolutely incredible this year and it really is a shame they are going to be remembered for the missed fgs in the Nevada game. I would put my money on them vs anyone in the country (if you gave me an even ML). They are my #1 ranked team in the nation (and it is not that close). On the season I have them ranked +2.30 yards per play better than the average team offensively and +1.97 yards per play better than the average team defensively. Again, this is adjusted for schedule. If you want me to include games only against their 4 toughest opponents (vs V. Tech, ORE ST, HAWAII, @ NEVADA), they are even better. In those games they were +2.35 ypp on offense & +2.28 ypp on defense. Not only that, but their success rate was only rivaled by TCU. They were successful on 62.9% of plays against a schedule 1.83 pts worse than average. The 2nd half of the season they were just as dominant as the first half.
Meanwhile, Utah I have at +1.22 ypp better than avg on the season (+0.73 off/0.49 def). However, they were worse in the 2nd half of the season (+0.45/+0.2 def) = +0.65. They also were significantly worse against the 6 above average defensive teams (+0.17 yards per play better than average on offense vs Pitt, AF, TCU, ND, SD ST, BYU). On defense they were also worse vs the above average teams (again all relative). Against Pitt, TCU, AF, SD ST (the 4 above avg off teams they faced), they were +0.16 yards per play better than average. I'm not all that concerned with Cain starting for the injured Wynn as he has had similar compenstated stats for the last year and a half & he was the starter for half of last year.
Even if I give Utah a generous +1.00 ypp rating (I think it should be somewhat lower considering they were worse in 2H & worse against better opponents) & give Boise a +4.20 ypp rating (even though they were better than that against tough opponents & in the 2nd half), my math model comes up with Boise favored by 23.11 points. Utah has an advantage in special teams (although Boise historically has been very good & is not bad), Boise has an edge in turnovers (Moore has a very low 1.5% INT rate for his career) and will likely run a few more plays.
My math model does not take into account any plays in which backups are in and Boise did not really try and run up the score when their backups were in. They pulled their starters farely early, although I would be surprised if backups were in if they weren't up 30+ or very very late in this game. From a ppg model, I get Boise favored by 19.4 points.
I would consider Boise a play if it were not for a very bad situation here. Double digit dogs do well in bowls like I've said previously and Utah has won 9 straight bowl games. Coach Willingham is 4-1 ATS in bowls with Utah and 3-0 ATS with 3 straight up wins as underdogs in bowl games. I question Boise's motivation in this game as well as they were obviously shooting for a BCS bowl at the very least. I do give credit to Boise for showing up in their last game vs Utah St in a game they could have completely tanked. While they did not cover, they won 50-14 and were up 43-7 after 3 quarters. Bowl underdogs of 15+ are also 7-0 ATS since 1980 if the game is before new years day (the favorites in these situations are obviously unmotivated as they are strong teams who had dreams of playing in bigger bowl games). Anyways, I am passing on this game because my math model leans one way and the situation seems to call for the underdog.
Math model: -23.11 Boise St, Total 54.3
LAS VEGAS BOWL:
Boise St -17 (no lean) vs Utah: Boise St has been absolutely incredible this year and it really is a shame they are going to be remembered for the missed fgs in the Nevada game. I would put my money on them vs anyone in the country (if you gave me an even ML). They are my #1 ranked team in the nation (and it is not that close). On the season I have them ranked +2.30 yards per play better than the average team offensively and +1.97 yards per play better than the average team defensively. Again, this is adjusted for schedule. If you want me to include games only against their 4 toughest opponents (vs V. Tech, ORE ST, HAWAII, @ NEVADA), they are even better. In those games they were +2.35 ypp on offense & +2.28 ypp on defense. Not only that, but their success rate was only rivaled by TCU. They were successful on 62.9% of plays against a schedule 1.83 pts worse than average. The 2nd half of the season they were just as dominant as the first half.
Meanwhile, Utah I have at +1.22 ypp better than avg on the season (+0.73 off/0.49 def). However, they were worse in the 2nd half of the season (+0.45/+0.2 def) = +0.65. They also were significantly worse against the 6 above average defensive teams (+0.17 yards per play better than average on offense vs Pitt, AF, TCU, ND, SD ST, BYU). On defense they were also worse vs the above average teams (again all relative). Against Pitt, TCU, AF, SD ST (the 4 above avg off teams they faced), they were +0.16 yards per play better than average. I'm not all that concerned with Cain starting for the injured Wynn as he has had similar compenstated stats for the last year and a half & he was the starter for half of last year.
Even if I give Utah a generous +1.00 ypp rating (I think it should be somewhat lower considering they were worse in 2H & worse against better opponents) & give Boise a +4.20 ypp rating (even though they were better than that against tough opponents & in the 2nd half), my math model comes up with Boise favored by 23.11 points. Utah has an advantage in special teams (although Boise historically has been very good & is not bad), Boise has an edge in turnovers (Moore has a very low 1.5% INT rate for his career) and will likely run a few more plays.
My math model does not take into account any plays in which backups are in and Boise did not really try and run up the score when their backups were in. They pulled their starters farely early, although I would be surprised if backups were in if they weren't up 30+ or very very late in this game. From a ppg model, I get Boise favored by 19.4 points.
I would consider Boise a play if it were not for a very bad situation here. Double digit dogs do well in bowls like I've said previously and Utah has won 9 straight bowl games. Coach Willingham is 4-1 ATS in bowls with Utah and 3-0 ATS with 3 straight up wins as underdogs in bowl games. I question Boise's motivation in this game as well as they were obviously shooting for a BCS bowl at the very least. I do give credit to Boise for showing up in their last game vs Utah St in a game they could have completely tanked. While they did not cover, they won 50-14 and were up 43-7 after 3 quarters. Bowl underdogs of 15+ are also 7-0 ATS since 1980 if the game is before new years day (the favorites in these situations are obviously unmotivated as they are strong teams who had dreams of playing in bigger bowl games). Anyways, I am passing on this game because my math model leans one way and the situation seems to call for the underdog.
Math model: -23.11 Boise St, Total 54.3
Thanks for your post moo. I will likely sit this one out as well. If I play anything, I will probably go with the Boise first half team total over 20.
Thanks again for your insights.
Poinsetta Bowl:
SD ST vs Navy +3 (lean w/navy): I do have a ticket for Navy +5.5 that I took when the line got out, but my math model actually favors SD St by a little. No long analysis in this game. Briefly, while the game is being played at SD St's home field, Navy should have quite a few fans in attendance at this game and I do not consider it a true road game. Navy performs well in road games traditionally as they are almost 65 % ATS away from home in the last 30 years. They are 2-0 ATS in the poinsetta bowl in recent years Adding to that, the service academies have a long history of performing well in bowl games (perhaps b/c of their ability to focus/discipline that is needed to attend the academies). The academies are 23-9 ATS in bowl games since 1976 & 17-3 ATS when facing teams .600 or better.
Also, my PPG model only favors SD St by 0.56 pts & Navy has a slight advantage on a success % rate. Navy also performed much better offensively in the 2nd half of the season, and perhaps it just took them a few weeks to get their complex offense to hit its stride. The weather also appears to favor Navy in this game. I can only recommend a play on Navy at +3 or better, although I would want +3.5 (at -110 or better) to make a bet on navy.
Math Model: SD St -4.3 (2 pts for home field), total 63.3
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