First time going against you but having seen NCST play they are tough, the defensive is nasty at the LB spot and the QB is a dual threat on ground and air....WV was really unimpressive and has looked bad in bowl games recently..
You are not going against me, the only team I'd lean with in this game is NC St. My math model is not always the correct play. That is just based on this seasons stats, that does not consider anything situational.
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Quote Originally Posted by PhiTau-NOLES:
First time going against you but having seen NCST play they are tough, the defensive is nasty at the LB spot and the QB is a dual threat on ground and air....WV was really unimpressive and has looked bad in bowl games recently..
You are not going against me, the only team I'd lean with in this game is NC St. My math model is not always the correct play. That is just based on this seasons stats, that does not consider anything situational.
I just realized I had a 0.7 unit ticket on Air Force at -2.5 (-105), hard for me to keep track of my early bets. I am going to hedge out of a little of that, but will have small wager on Air Force.
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I just realized I had a 0.7 unit ticket on Air Force at -2.5 (-105), hard for me to keep track of my early bets. I am going to hedge out of a little of that, but will have small wager on Air Force.
Contrary to popular belief, the military academies really don't have that good of a record in the bowls. AF is just 2-3 and Navy is just 2-4 in the last few years. These teams have done a little better ATS in the bowls. But this has been mainly when they were the dogs. Which is probably what the public remembers the most. But out of the 9 last bowl games combined between AF and Navy, there has been only one game where either of these two teams were made a favorite in their bowl. And that was Navy 10 years ago against Colorado St. AF has'nt been a favorite in any of their last 5 bowls. And neither has been a favorite over a BCS team. Even though GT's stats aren't as good as AF, their SOS and being a BCS team has to be given some respect here.
Taking historical data into account, certainly in college football, in my opinion, has too many pitfalls. Would you use that sort of historical data with Alabama? After all, coaching/leadership weighs so much into the equation and the Tide had years with Shula and DuBose when they were not very competitive.
Whereas I do agree with strength of schedule in this case, I'm looking primarily into the facts of team decimation and they're motivation to give 100% tonight.
I'll be betting against Iowa for these same facts as well.
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Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:
Contrary to popular belief, the military academies really don't have that good of a record in the bowls. AF is just 2-3 and Navy is just 2-4 in the last few years. These teams have done a little better ATS in the bowls. But this has been mainly when they were the dogs. Which is probably what the public remembers the most. But out of the 9 last bowl games combined between AF and Navy, there has been only one game where either of these two teams were made a favorite in their bowl. And that was Navy 10 years ago against Colorado St. AF has'nt been a favorite in any of their last 5 bowls. And neither has been a favorite over a BCS team. Even though GT's stats aren't as good as AF, their SOS and being a BCS team has to be given some respect here.
Taking historical data into account, certainly in college football, in my opinion, has too many pitfalls. Would you use that sort of historical data with Alabama? After all, coaching/leadership weighs so much into the equation and the Tide had years with Shula and DuBose when they were not very competitive.
Whereas I do agree with strength of schedule in this case, I'm looking primarily into the facts of team decimation and they're motivation to give 100% tonight.
I'll be betting against Iowa for these same facts as well.
Taking historical data into account, certainly in college football, in my opinion, has too many pitfalls. Would you use that sort of historical data with Alabama? After all, coaching/leadership weighs so much into the equation and the Tide had years with Shula and DuBose when they were not very competitive.
Whereas I do agree with strength of schedule in this case, I'm looking primarily into the facts of team decimation and they're motivation to give 100% tonight.
I'll be betting against Iowa for these same facts as well.
Service academies are a whole different animal than major conference schools. I think the trend holds some weight.
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Quote Originally Posted by callmetim:
Taking historical data into account, certainly in college football, in my opinion, has too many pitfalls. Would you use that sort of historical data with Alabama? After all, coaching/leadership weighs so much into the equation and the Tide had years with Shula and DuBose when they were not very competitive.
Whereas I do agree with strength of schedule in this case, I'm looking primarily into the facts of team decimation and they're motivation to give 100% tonight.
I'll be betting against Iowa for these same facts as well.
Service academies are a whole different animal than major conference schools. I think the trend holds some weight.
Iowa (+2.5) vs Mizzou (1 unit on Iowa): I have a bet out there at +3 (-115) will try and add to get a unit or so on iowa here. Despite all the talk about the suspensions, they are just as good as Mizzou and should hang tough here. Ferentz is an excellent bowl coach (6-2 ATS) and Iowa is in a good situation as teams that stumble down the stretch (3+ losses) are good bets in bowl games as long as they aren't big favorites. Ferentz is also 29-15 ATS as an underdog at Iowa and I expect him to properly motivate the team here in this game. The only truly noteworthy suspension is for WR Koulianos as he was very good in the passes thrown his way. I downgraded their offense a touch for the game as he was probably worth about a point. I don't see the loss of Robinson as a major loss as they were just as good with the backup RB Coker.
While Iowa certainly was worse over the last 6 games, on the whole they were +0.79 yppl on offense and +1.29 yppl on defense. Over the last 6 games they were +0.20/+0.96 for a total of +1.16. I tend to take a combination of the two depending on change of personnel. I also downgraded them a bit because they were a bit worse against the top 4 defenses they faced (+0.17 yppl). Their defense was pretty solid all year however and they should contain an average Mizzou offense (+0.19 yppl). Mizzou was better vs the top 4 defenses they faced however, but was a little worse down the stretch. Mizzou's defense was their strength (+1.07 on the year/+0.77 last 6 games), and they should contain the Iowa offense (minus Koulianos). Teams that win the final 3 games and end up playing in a pre-new years day have also historically been bad bets in bowl games (as their momentum has halted with the layoff and they aren't as excited to be playing in such a game). Because of the situation, I will lean with the Hawkeyes as the line move has also given the Hawkeyes some value.
Math model: Iowa -1.27/47.9
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Insight Bowl:
Iowa (+2.5) vs Mizzou (1 unit on Iowa): I have a bet out there at +3 (-115) will try and add to get a unit or so on iowa here. Despite all the talk about the suspensions, they are just as good as Mizzou and should hang tough here. Ferentz is an excellent bowl coach (6-2 ATS) and Iowa is in a good situation as teams that stumble down the stretch (3+ losses) are good bets in bowl games as long as they aren't big favorites. Ferentz is also 29-15 ATS as an underdog at Iowa and I expect him to properly motivate the team here in this game. The only truly noteworthy suspension is for WR Koulianos as he was very good in the passes thrown his way. I downgraded their offense a touch for the game as he was probably worth about a point. I don't see the loss of Robinson as a major loss as they were just as good with the backup RB Coker.
While Iowa certainly was worse over the last 6 games, on the whole they were +0.79 yppl on offense and +1.29 yppl on defense. Over the last 6 games they were +0.20/+0.96 for a total of +1.16. I tend to take a combination of the two depending on change of personnel. I also downgraded them a bit because they were a bit worse against the top 4 defenses they faced (+0.17 yppl). Their defense was pretty solid all year however and they should contain an average Mizzou offense (+0.19 yppl). Mizzou was better vs the top 4 defenses they faced however, but was a little worse down the stretch. Mizzou's defense was their strength (+1.07 on the year/+0.77 last 6 games), and they should contain the Iowa offense (minus Koulianos). Teams that win the final 3 games and end up playing in a pre-new years day have also historically been bad bets in bowl games (as their momentum has halted with the layoff and they aren't as excited to be playing in such a game). Because of the situation, I will lean with the Hawkeyes as the line move has also given the Hawkeyes some value.
Baylor (-1) vs Illinois (lean with Illinois): I actually have an Illinois ticket for +3 (-105) that I got the day it opened. My math favors Illinois here as they played much better vs tougher opponents than Baylor did. Baylor's defense was a sieve vs above average opponents (-0.72 vs top 4 offenses) and Illinois offense was +0.72 yards per play better than average over last 6 games and QB Schaaelhaase was much better vs poor defenses. He was awful against good pass defenses. Baylor might have the home field edge, but they have the much worse defense and have worse special teams. I also have Illinois running more plays and holding a 479.6 - 405.9 yards advantage. Lean with the Illini here.
Math Model: Illinois -4.65/64.7
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TEXAS BOWL:
Baylor (-1) vs Illinois (lean with Illinois): I actually have an Illinois ticket for +3 (-105) that I got the day it opened. My math favors Illinois here as they played much better vs tougher opponents than Baylor did. Baylor's defense was a sieve vs above average opponents (-0.72 vs top 4 offenses) and Illinois offense was +0.72 yards per play better than average over last 6 games and QB Schaaelhaase was much better vs poor defenses. He was awful against good pass defenses. Baylor might have the home field edge, but they have the much worse defense and have worse special teams. I also have Illinois running more plays and holding a 479.6 - 405.9 yards advantage. Lean with the Illini here.
moo, how many units are you up so far? Seems like most of your plays are leans.
leans aren't plays, just if you had to bet it, i'd go that way. I don't bet that many games. just some people had some interest in me writing up games so I decided to do it for once. gl to you
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Quote Originally Posted by willywagtail:
moo, how many units are you up so far? Seems like most of your plays are leans.
leans aren't plays, just if you had to bet it, i'd go that way. I don't bet that many games. just some people had some interest in me writing up games so I decided to do it for once. gl to you
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