My Bowl Picks 2010

 You sir, are a complete JOKE

I now understand the true meaning of dipshit.  This thread was started by GCNMOO not Vanzack.  Both guy's are well respected cappers but if you want to thank Vanzack find his thread and thank him in there.

Thanks for the info Moo and good luck with the rest of your wagers.

Little Cesars Pizza Bowl:

Toledo (-1) vs FIU (Lean with Toledo/over):  No time for a writeup here as I have family stuff today.  Basically, toledo was better with Owens qbing the team near the end of the season, which gives toledo enough of an advantage for my math model to lean with.  no bet, as FIU has pretty big Success % advantage and the math hardly leans with Toledo as is.  Gl to those that play it.

Math Model: Toledo -3.25/63.6

Independence Bowl:

Air Force (-3) vs G. Tech (lean with A. Force/& over): I may bet Air Force here if I can find -2.5 (-110 or better) as they are the only side I would play here.

Busy again with college basketball, so probably not gonna have time for in-depth writeups unless I have a strong feeling about a game.

Anyways, Air Force was +0.9 in yards per play on the season in my metrics and Georgia tech had a surprisingly bad year at -0.25 yards per play overall.  Air Force also seems like the superior team from my success ratio.

Air Force:  -0.455 SOS, 53.2% Succ Ratio

G. Tech:   1.227 SOS, 48.3% Succ Ratio

Air Force is clearly the superior team based on this year's stats and that isn't even factoring in that Georgia Tech will be without two starters (DB Edwards - #3 Tackler, WR Hill - #1 WR).  LBer Egbuniwe (#5 Tackler) will also be missing for half the game. They will also be without QB Nesbitt although QB Washington figures to have similar results (based on the last 3.5 games he has played).  Air Force is returning star DB Lindsay (they were much better in the first half of the season defensively with him in there) as well as RB Tew (debatable how much better they'd be with him but it is another set of fresh legs and leading rusher last year). 

While Georgia Tech has a bad defense (-0.52 for yr, and -1.15 for last 6 games), option teams have a hard time of taking advantage of bad defenses.  For the most part, their offenses rely on more precision and execution which usually results in more consistency, but less variance from week to week (relative to defense).  Air Force averaged 6.71 yards per play in games against the 5 games they played against poor defenses (those defenses A. Force would expect to gain 6.88 yppl).  Against the 5 strong defenses they faced, A. Force still averaged 6.18 yppl  against teams who would allow only 4.96 yards per play to an average offense.  So, the fact that Georgia tech's defense is very bad, won't have a huge effect on Air Force.  On the game, I have air force averaging 6.55 yards per play to the 5.85 yards per play of georgia tech.

Like I mentioned previously, service academies have historically been good bowl teams, although Paul Johnson (coach of g.tech), has a very good ATS record away from home and as an underdog.  I think Air Force is happier to be here and I expect to get a stronger effort from them, although I don't really see G. Tech rolling over at all (especially because of their offense).

I may play Air Force, depends which way this line goes.  I have small play on over 55.5, but usually don't like to play totals unless they are about 7 points off my total.  Good luck to those that play this game. 

Math Model:  Air Force -5.94, Total 61.3

That post has creedence with the addition of that one word.

Nice job!

Agreed 

Christina Model avatar doesn't hurt either 

Champs Sports Bowl:

W. Virginia (-2.5) vs NC ST (NO LEAN, if got to +3 i'd lean very slightly with NC ST):

A case where the mathematical analysis and the situational analysis clash.  W. Virginia is clearly the better team here (+1.53 yppl), and 56.9% Succ Rate against -0.95 SOS.  They have a dominant defense (+1.3 ypply) that has performed just as well over the ladder half of the season as it did the beginning of the year.  They will be without one of their top CB's Brandon Hogan which is a small reason for concern as NC St loves to move the ball through the air.  NC St was very average offensively (+0.07 for year, -0.05 last 5 games and -0.15 vs toughest 5 defenses they faced). 

Anyways, while my math certainly favors West Virginia, Tom O'brien's career record in bowl games is very concerning (7-1 ATS) and it is hard to figure that West Virginia will be focused on this game as they were hoping to land a BCS bid.  Stewart has just been told he will be fired after next season, and although I'm not sure how relevant that is, I think he will have a tough time getting the focus of his players for this bowl game.  Teams that end the year on a win streak actually struggle in bowl games (if it is a pre-new years game) and West virginia applies to this angle as well.   NC St has actually outplayed their stats and my PPG model actually only favors W. Virginia by 0.38 points.  If the line gets to +3 (-110 or better), I'd line with NC St because of the situation.  No play for me either way though.  Gl to those that play it.

Math model (w/o CB Hogan):  W. Virginia -6.19, Total 48.4

You're right that the academies usually aren't favorites in bowl games, but they are something like 23-10 ATS over last 25 years or so in bowl games.  Air Force should be focused here I'd think.