LAST2THIRST Weeks 1 - 5  NCAAF Sides  

Spottie, sometimes when early lines short of a TD or FG appear, I get suspicious but.....like my 2nd play, its now put up or shut up before Conference play kicks in and you want mojo for that if you are the better with personnel

Always good having your stamp of approval, especially after your great week

Thanks man 

Sides I am eyeing:

Wisconsin +15.5 - Bama has Georgia on deck

Florida +4 - last year they beat a darling Vols team in week 3 in their building....putting the smack down 29-11

- Texas AM better than Vols of last year? Is Florida worse than last year's team? .....digging on those questions

Kansas St -7 - lost last year on the road vs a strong Missouri team 30-27 ... Arizona had the comfort of an easy matchup

- Zona has back to back roadies vs two legit Top 20 teams after the comforts of their homefield.....in most years, things do not work well for any good team coming to K-State on their home turf and the crowd on a Friday night game should be bonkers

*** its a ML key game for me for sure....in parlays since Zona has trouble with the run and Giddens will run wild at home .... plan to find a suitable parlay dance partner with them but no ML numbers released just yet

Illinois -19 - has 2 tough games in a row after this....CMICH won't give this defense issues unless they are lax and I don't think that is likely given the fact a INT is quite possible with the CMICH QB already throwing 5 of them in 2 weeks....

-FIU with back to back roadies and just got hammered on the most recent one to a 100th+ ranked team with a lot of returning players

-Oline is strong for Illinois and well coached and new DC is proving his worth for the defense...a lot to like with this team including their QB who has played clean. ....watching this line and will likely grab it and bet the total in game if I feel CMICH will be able to score and the Illini defenders a little asleep

LouTech/NC ST OVER 51.5 - LouTech with a very lowly rated defense BUT a decent offense and QB that might be able to put up 17-21 pts on an awful looking defense I thought who looked undersized in the secondary for NCST

-McCall shouldn't be bothered and he really needs to get going because he has not looked great and they will probably try to do so and crank up the offense and score over 35 this week

Memphis - FSU line intrigues me..... +5.5

Okie St - Tulsa Total is too high 62.5 ...with 3 tough games in a row, I can see Okie St. focusing on run game and preserving Bowman /running more play action type passes .... Okie St. ...most returning players and I suspect Gundy will preach fundamentals in practice all week for them to get ready for strong competition over the next 3 games starting with UTAH

-defense for Tulsa is on a reboot and I don't think Okie St needs to press their higher gear in this game

Purdue +12.5 - this line is on watch > 2 weeks to prepare and another local game for ND ....Hudson Card at QB is decent and we know Irish are having trouble scoring...but IRISH will be very motivated because 2 fast losses and they are done.

Might break down some more games

Think I found my 3rd play and its going to be a parlay..... that pays almost 2 to 1

Play #3 - ML parlay x 2U

Kansas with Kansas with Notre Dame all to win their games pays 2.05

I will be playing a teaser WITH  all the DOGS getting pts or some others....just haven't figured it out

K.state I assume!

Yep

1U x Arizona St +1 

- I think this is a nice story with so many returning players but.....who has Texas St. played??

- preseason ranking of defense was putrid and their offense in the 50 rank+ area

- now they have to face a team that pounded on a 60 rank percentile defense and a 50 percentile defense from the SEC that did not have many returning players, but still had size and speed and their coach learned under Lane Kiffin so he could handle the SEC or facing other Power 4 teams

Arizona St. defense has done this:

- gave up 40 yards rushing on 32 attempts vs Wyoming << not a great offense

- gave up 78 yards of passing in that game vs 2 sophomore QBs

- vs Mississippi St., they gave up 24 yds on 27 rushing attempts   ....what do we know? Their defense line and scheming with the next layer is manhandling Offensive lines after two games!!

- once again, the secondary proves decent as well > vs MSST they gave up 268 yds vs a pretty good senior QB in Blake Shapen formerly from Baylor

Defense travels well....

Now look at their offense for Arizona St. 

-Leavitt with no INTs

-he can run

-their RB has over 300 yds 

- seems to me they like playing a balanced offense and now have to face a defense ranked at 125th??

Not sure why there is so much love for Texas St. but it should be an entertaining game and could go either way.....going to go contrarian here and take the proven team with better personnel and defense in my opinion 

I hope Azst wins tonight.  I will be looking hard at an opportunity to bet Tex tech next week. 

 Ya, first roadie for AZST so they will know what type of team they have after this one vs a competitive team 'in theory' that might be better than they are rated.... and a lot of people may know something, but I just cannot believe the numbers that I am seeing from AZST and yes, I realize they are home games....but two quality programs!

One thing I like that stands out for me with AZST .... when I grab value horses, I tend to look for how they handle the grind when the horses bunch together and their defense can handle the grind so they have demonstrated so I see making this play like an analogy of my horse pedigree that I look for in some races to win or wheel on a superfecta at higher odds

I like your thinking on the OSU/Tulsa under. Still mulling this one over. Both teams play very fast. 

 Thanks Doc 

Will slowing down prepare them better for Conference sched? Not so sure but I think Tulsa defense will be swiss cheese so Gundy may want to give his defense a blow every once in a while and just do runs mostly on a drive .....one and done plays and back to your defense might not be a good thing. Gundy knows how to get his blockers set up for the run and the fact that they are 105th best run might be an area they work on here..... 

Their pass defense alone is a concern for OSU so Tulsa will get some drives in here and keep their dee on the field

Summary of Plays this week:

> snuck this one in on Thursday afternoon after breaking down the ASU - TEXST game

>  1U x Arizona St +1   

Play #1 - Kansas -6.5 x 1U 

Play #2 - WVU -2.5 x 2U  

Play #3 - ML parlay x 2U  Kansas St with Kansas with Notre Dame all to win their games pays 2.05

Good morning.... how about a little easy listening to get you in the mood for the weekend football slate 

Love playing this riff on a nice day like it is here this morning 

Looking forward to watching some games ! The AZST - Texas St. was beauty..

-Zona /Kansas St.

-Bama/Wisconsin << will they finally get over the talent maximization hump?? 

-Ducks/Beavers !

-TexAM/Florida

-WVU/Pitt << want to see if they are legit because I thought this was a Nazz rebuild year?

EVENING - NOTHING ... DATE NIGHT??

Lines really taking off today: - just some thoughts and by no means any recommendations or plays for me. I do not like this week but feel I have poached what I like enough. Starting next week...might up my numbers if I am positive and Vegas provides solid chances

Illinois -21 now ....lots were taking CMICH +18.5-+19.5

FSU -6.5 ...Memphis +6.5 with the preseason #5 offense in college football...their defense has been playing better than expected and Memphis second halves have had lower scoring numbers due to fast leads

Missouri down to -14.5 .... B.C. was sneaky good but this is a top tier SEC team (not top shelf, but top tier and very strong at homefield traditionally with maybe their best team in years?).. I get what people see in B.C. after FSU game

Minnesota -17 ...started the week -14.5 .... they need a blowout from their QB for sure but Nevada is not a pushover that we have seen in their first two games

Purdue -8 > man, this one has really come down...I liked them at +12.5 but would rather watch for results and comparisons for future weeks

Cougars in the Apple Bowl... +5.5? Huskies with a new roster revamp and more Cougars left from their team that could motivate to cover that I would think 

SHOCKED that WVU line has come down to -1.5 .... Greene I don't think played in their game last year 

Why are Utah -18 with Rising doubtful? Take a hard look at the total.... 43.5 ....can see a 24 - __ score here ...maybe 31 - ___ so focus on Utah St and what they could bring to the table in points 

FAU -5 > wrong team may be favorite here? FIU has many returning players and a decent offense

Texas -35 << why so low and coming down?? Do people know Sark's gameplan? Not sure UTSA can score on them...and maybe a token FG x 2 at most?

Vanderbilt -9.5 screams value play BECAUSE .... SP+ has Georgia St at 119th rank in most recent update this week....have they rewarded their betters with a cover yet?

Baylor -16.5 ...well, if they want to get their offense going to match the defensive results I anticipate in this one, this is their chance to get a +20 cover for a change by Aranda who seems to coach his teams to play within two TDs or less this past couple-few years despite having sometimes greater personnel by a mile

Georgia - Kentucky -22.... should Georgia use their A-plays on offense and play their starters the whole game with Alabama on deck, therefore a pumped up crowd motives Kentucky to get 2-3 scores? Maybe more? 

GL  on your plays @Last2thirst

Thanks Mac ! 

Kansas is terrible and brain dead on offense....wow.... UNLV wins with a lot of heart on that team 

That was a bad pick on my part. First half, Kansas looked normal. 2nd half, it felt like they were clueless completely!

Kansas used to be gold at home and their secondary is unreal....Jaylon Daniels has regressed big time in his decision making and hyperness with the ball (missing receivers a lot but a great arm/no accuracy)

@Last2thirst

KU dominated rushing until that bone head INT to end the first half.  That was the game.  

I am glad I watched that game.... it helps me pick later for sure. I watched Kansas St. and was deeply impressed how fast their offense was and their defense moving to tackle and closing down plays. That coach has them in shape and very athletically ready to play....super impressed

Kansas St. has to win and play the same way on the road at Oklahoma St. and win by a TD and I would rank them Top 10 maybe ...depending on how things play out. 

I think K-State can win out their schedule if they play like that! 

@Last2thirst

 Kansas loss was fruitful  for me as well.  Terrible in game QB and coach play calling.  Its not a system with structure.  UNLV is play and not beat themselves. 

Been mulling playing a TEASER today .... a bit of a rough night last night and there are at least two games I think can be tapped to KEY based on looking at their schedules, the line and how I think the game will play out:

7 pt TEASERS: $30 each (1/ 4 Unit) each 4 way pay HALF U per winner

**notes:

- at the Swamp, games have been within 3 pts and Weigman may not play

- last 5 games for LSU vs Gamecocks have covered the spread easily except one game by 2

- Ducks won by 24 last year with Beavs on the road, but since 2020 when Beavs have been consistently good to excellent, the game has been within 14 pts otherwise and closer when Beavs at home

-going back to 2013 ....surprisingly, the APPLE BOWL usually is a blowout for one side with last year's game being the only that was close ...all other years, the winner wins by 10-20 pts >> COUGARS hammered TTECH and Huskies are completely rebuilt this year

-Sooners are NOT a killer offense this year and they distribute the ball well but who is their go to guy at WR when they need to sustain a drive??

 Gators +10 with WVU +5.5 with Texas -28  with:

1. Alabama Under 54.5

2. LSU +1

3. Memphis +13.5

4. Miami -29.5

5. Beavers +24.5

6. Tulane +20

7. Wash St. +13

8. ECU +8

9. Utah St +25

10. Old Dom +24

11. E.Mich +8.5

12. Texas -28

13. Vandy -1.5

14. Baylor -9

15. UCF +9.5

16. Indiana +3.5

17. Tenn UNDER 69.5

18. NMST +26

South Carolina looks real real good on both sides (especially defense wow!) if they stick to run game and mix in Sellers on shorter passes or reads where he runs, they could be very dangerous to a lot of teams because Sanders at RB is a beast!!..... LSU has a funky offense to begin this game

Got my ass kicked this week..... time to kill this thread and start a new one for Weeks 3 - 6 

Will post my Top teams list - some shuffle at the top for sure....I know Georgia is not trying to show much for Alabama but maybe not? Georgia starts the first half of their season slowly usually after their first impact game and then they get rolling. Bama may catch them in a good back and forth matchup next week....anything can happen as 1-2 losses for strong teams with many 4-5 star athletes should make it

TOP 12 AFTER WEEK #3:

1. tie Texas (Georgia is only speed bump)

1. tie Tennessee (they play Alabama 1st/ Georgia later) > win both = #1 team!

3. Georgia (don't assume they will beat Alabama!)

4. Alabama 

----------------------------------------------

5. Ole Miss 

6. Ohio St - Big 10 is weaker this year?

7. Oregon - ok, now I believe!

8. USC 

9. Miami 

10. Penn St 

 --------------------In the Hunt-------------

11. Kansas St. ...great group of athletes

---------------------Close ----------------

12 Missouri

13 Oklahoma

14 Oklahoma St.

---------------better clean up/get better --------

15. LSU

16. Utah ... if they beat Okie St on the road, they move up!

17. Notre Dame

---------------------------------------------------

18. Texas AM > excellent upside ...have to beat Missouri, LSU and get by South Carolina and then fare well vs Texas and they might sneak in there as others above them falter. I watched them two times now and they have the pedigree to get better each week and finish strong

Until They show consistency/Beat higher level:

Nebraska , Clemson,  South Carolina, Iowa St. Michigan

 How Good Are They Really?

 Louisville, Pittsburgh, Iowa, VTech, Memphis, UCF, Rutgers

Who Beat Who in my Top 30?: - BEST BEATS 

Texas beat Michigan (12 SP+)

Iowa St beat Iowa   (17 SP+)

USC  beat  LSU   (20 SP+)

Georgia beat Kentucky (22 SP+), Clemson (31 SP+)

South Carolina beat Kentucky (22 SP+)

Washington St beat Washington (23 SP+)  and Texas Tech (58 SP+)

Notre Dame beat TexasAM (24 SP+)

Oklahoma St beat Arkansas (27 SP+)

Memphis beat FSU (30 SP+)

------------------------------------------------------

Kansas St beat Arizona (34 SP+) and Tulane (52 SP+)

Alabama beat Wisconsin (35 SP+)

Tennessee beat NC State (37 SP+)

Utah beat Baylor (39 SP+)

UCF beat TCU (41 SP+)

Miami beat Florida (43 SP+)

Texas AM beat Florida (43 SP+)

Oregon beat Boise (46 SP+) and Oregon St (60 SP+)

LSU beat South Carolina (48 SP+)

Oklahoma beat Tulane (52 SP+)

Pittsburgh beat WVU (55 SP+) and Cincy (67 SP+)

Penn St beat WVU (55 SP+)

Clemson beat Appalachian St (56 SP+)

Nebraska beat Colorado (63 SP+)

Ole Miss beat Wake F  (68 SP+)

Missouri beat Boston Col (70 SP+)

Michigan beat Fresno (75 SP+)

----------------------------------

Iowa = zero wins vs Top 75

Ohio St = zero wins vs Top 75

Rutgers = zero wins vs Top 75

-----------------------Other Strong Wins (Teams not in Top 30)

N. Illinois beat Notre Dame (10 SP+)

California beat Auburn (16 SP+)

Illinois beat Kansas (25 SP+)

UNLV beat Kansas  (25 SP+)

BYU beat SMU (26 SP+)

Georgia Tech beat FSU (30 SP+)

Arizona St beat Miss St (40 SP+)  

Toledo beat Miss St  (40 SP+)

Indiana beat UCLA  (45 SP+)

Vanderbilt beat VTECH (51 SP+)

Syracuse beat GTech  (53 SP+)

North Carolina beat Minnesota (59 SP+)

Maryland beat Virginia (69 SP+)

Virginia beat Wake F  (68 SP+)