LAST2THIRST Weeks 1 - 5  NCAAF Sides  

Sorry bout Minny. They killed my parlay too if its any consolation 

Best wishes and Have A great day !

Good Luck today bro 

I was wrong on that one but still was close. Could not believe Buckeye defense couldn't get off the field. First half was laughable. 

Congrats! 

@Spottie 

@G-Whiz 

@Uniman 

Made that by the skin of my teeth ......thanks boys

The interception for a TD  off the helmet had me looking up at the sky with still over 3 min to go haha 

I am resisting playing a lot of things....doing well on my local parlays but my one KEY is coming up now at 8pm and its a soccer pick. You can mix and match and this one was paying 2.00 and if I hit, I have 3 tickets paying $199 to $145 each and then have a bunch more open

Playing some horses and just hit a 16-1 longshot in the first leg of my PICK5 

RESULTS WEEK 1  + increase one bet:

Play #1 - Gophers ML x 1 U  -105  

Play #2 USC-LSU Under 63.5 x 1U  and now add on Sunday x 1U UNDER 66

Play #3 - Buckeyes UNDER 58.5 x 1U   

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 Inclinations (in my Top 10 ideas):

Ohio St.  -47.5 (was the lowest I saw )    = NO 

UNC-Gophers UNDER 50.5 or higher  = YES

Kent St. - Pitt 55.5 - UNDER  = NO !!! haha

WMU - Wisconsin 56.5 - UNDER > = YES

WKY - Bama 59.5 - OVER  = YES 

JMAD -8.5 @ Charlotte  **now -9.5   = YES 

Just need to clean up one result and I am done for the week - tonight's game

Looking ahead to Week #2 Lines: 

MULLING..... (darkened means stronger lean)

 DUKE +3  OR  UNDER 39.5 

Locking in PLAY #1 - Rutgers -23 x 1.5U  and UNDER 41 pts x 1U (separate plays_

- this one is going to be ugly 

- Akron lost their QB and is questionable with rib injury and even if he plays, this aggressive D will make him gunshy and likely knock him out

- the backup QB for Akron - throws low/stands too upright and is a beanpole so I am not concerned about him being a disruptor

- Rutgers loves to run to pass and that will mess up this Akron defense ....which was what OSU was doing with a lot of success

- Rutgers defense rated better than OSU in SP+ so its a nasty one ...although not better than OSU in my opinion

- I don't see Akron scoring more than 6 or 9 pts and I do see Rutgers scoring 27 -31 with their offense and likely a defensive score > BUCKEYES got 14 pts from their defense 

Play #2 - Texas - Michigan UNDER 45 - x HALF U

- likely will add to this one later if it climbs

- top 5 defenses go at each other and I know Michigan will likely struggle a little more but there is no value in Texas -6.5 !!

- so I see Michigan scoring 17-21 pts tops and Texas scoring 21-24 pts on this defense at most (on the road especially)

Play #3 - Iowa - Iowa St UNDER 36.5 x 1 U

.......might find one more play because it looks like VEGAS is dangling some nice options to grab and just looking at the lines and knowing the units strengths in the matchups above, I GRABBED quickly so might want to now slow down and find one more over the next 3-5 days

- I have to concentrate on my NFL now anyway

Other spreads I like and could move fast:

Arkansas +8.5 .... would take to +7.5 ... check the stats of GREEN QB formerly from Boise playing half a game  and they have a strong RB too 

GTECH -3 .... only if it stays under -4 .... should run and keep Syracuse on their heels the whole game with play action too

Tulane +10 ....only if this edges up ... Oregon QB transfer ....and some good pieces from last year vs a #1 or #2 rated BIG 12 team on the road....this one might surprise

Michigan +6.5 ... give me a TD+ and I am likely a buyer....already have played the UNDER ....sick Wolverines defense

Iowa -3 ...pretty sure the line opened up -3.5 last year and climbed despite a team I think was weaker than this year and that is saying something. The offense is expected to be much improved for numerous reasons and rated #1 in ESPN SP+ or Top 10 by many rating systems I looked at ... don't think Iowa St has a shot pf winning the game frankly unless they score a defensive TD

Kansas -5.5 ...Illinois cannot trade TDs with Kansas and I just have to score one more....yes Illini have a good defense but Kansas is stacked on offense and I don't think Illinois can match a back and forth against a decent Kansas defense 

Colorado +7 but like the UNDER 57.5 better  ... Matt Rule has a top defense and his offense will be a work in progress....Shadeur with the talent around him should score 20+ with a top of 24-27 on this defense....will Nebraska score 30 on this Colorado D that improved greatly from the portal? I don't know...... maybe a 31-24 score tops? But more likely, I see a 27-23/ 27-24 type of game here

App St. +16.5 ....has to climb to +17.5 for me to consider... their offense should score 14-17 on Clemson easily but will Clemson score over 30 on App St...they should but did not like what I saw with Cade last week in his throwing motion/mechanics....they should just run the ball more and let him have time in the pocket unlike last week when he did not get his feet set much

Boise - Oregon OVER 61.5 ....might be the first play I dig into and might take it as a 4th play....that seems low as I expect Boise to score 20 but maybe not? Oregon defense is Top 5 ... Vegas laying a trap?

BOOKING MY WEEK 1 plays now and week Results: No way this is going OVER 63.5 and 66.5 in USC - LSU

RESULTS WEEK 1  + increase one bet:

 Play #1 - Gophers ML x 1 U  -105  

Play #2 USC-LSU Under 63.5 x 1U  << this one makes me happy the most especially when the line closed at 67 around game time   and now add on Sunday x 1U UNDER 66  

Play #3 - Buckeyes UNDER 58.5 x 1U   

Season Record:  2 - 1  (+2 U)

3 new plays already posted for WEEK 2 ...might end up with 4-5 plays despite me saying I wouldn't ....thinking Vegas might have left some lines to take advantage with what I am seeing already in Iowa, Michigan and Rutgers numbers

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 Inclinations but not played (in my Top 10-15 ideas posted):  4 - 2

Last couple of games between ISU and Iowa:

Date                     Result                    ATS O/U
Sep 09, '23     20 - 13 IOWA @ISU     -3.5 u34.5
Sep 10, '22     10 - 7 ISU  @IOWA       3.5 u39.0

Looks like home fave is no good....but I do like it this year....lets see if it falls to -2.5 or even lower

I’m using my data on my weekly plays but some of your games so far are rock solid.  

under Mich \Texas 

I won’t touch the side but I see 20-17 in OT.  Something like that.  I just see a sweat all game. 

Love Duke.  Historically NW is a good dog. not a team to cover  as chalk. 

I’m on Illinois.  You make good points on Kansas but they have no history on the road.  I have no confidence in KU laying road points.  They score points no doubt but their last 3 games their opponents are not that good.

past opponents 

Lindenwood cincy and UNLV could have an influence on this sneaky line.  I feel like this is a fg game and if it were for my data i probably should pass.  

Great week let’s do it again 

GL  THIS WEEK  

@Last2thirst

 Thanks for the great analysis and here's to a winning season

Anytime .. always welcome to peer in and say what you like /discuss football. I am working on more posts right now such as an early Top 12+ list w/comments

Thanks Spottie 

Hope so!

Thanks DoYou, U2 

I see you post a lot and really engaged. That's good

I think I watched enough this week and preseason researched to be able to establish my top 12 most likely and will adjust as I go:

 -ranking is based on preseason rankings from a few + sources

-1st game impressions

-as we go, scoring a lot will not matter as much as how they perform when down OR how they can play defense OR how much balance do they have because those will matter in tough ball games 

-expect this list to change a lot 

TOP 12

1. Georgia - undisputed after week 1 until I see Ohio St vs a good team

2. Alabama - supremely talented + beat a 70th ranked preseason team 63 - 0 

3. Texas  - supremely talented + beat a 90-100th ranked preseason team 52 - 0 

4. Notre Dame - very talented/might surprise + beat a Top 20 team in one of toughest home fields

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5. Ohio St - extreme talent and perhaps #1 team but will have to supplant Texas

with greater win if Texas beats Michigan on the road

6. Oregon - same as above

7. Penn St. - great start might end up better than the two above with new OC and Allar better/D will dictate

how far they will rise

8. Ole Miss - Lane Kiffin may have a beast constructed here/ Defense will dictate how far they rise

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9. USC - maybe most improved team and would have made playoff last year with this defense. Don't know if they stay here but this is an earned position but feel they lose to all above although they get to play Notre Dame 

10. Miami - can they punch another SEC or Big 10 team come playoff time? Have to win out except 1 loss because I don't think ACC will be respected as much with how Clemson lost to Georgia, but beating a good SEC team in Florida helps the resume

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Maybe Top 12 Out of this Group? :

Oklahoma - will know how good they are when they play someone good / DOUBT they stay here with their schedule / wow!

Missouri - tough schedule > have to beat 2 of the following 3 games (Okla, Bama T-AM)

LSU or Texas AM one of them will likely come back into contention but tough road now and they have the horses on the line and other Off talent to do so and win all others likely

Tennessee - its a coinflip like the two above, if they win out and only get one scalp of their higher rated SEC teams games and that includes playing Alabama and Georgia this year 

Kansas St - I would not call their schedule easy but they have some strong teams that if they beat them all, they should be in and I am not sure if their schedule is strong enough to get in with just one 1 > they better be impressive in all others

Oklahoma St. - have an impressive list of teams to beat (not an easy schedule)  but if they come through with a win over Kansas St on the road then Top 12 with a 1 loss record

Utah - have to have a 1 loss record and beat Okie St on the road to firm up a spot

Florida St - have to beat Clemson, Miami and Notre Dame and have one loss since I am not sure if winning 2 of those 3 will be enough unless Committee gives them a payback for last year

Michigan - if they can lose by one score next week, I would leave them in the Top 15-20 but more than 2 losses and they should be in Top 12? Tough schedule this year /wow

Clemson - if they can beat FSU on the road, they might have life looking at their schedule but they have to play impressively now

SLEEPERS?

Georgia Tech - have to beat Miami and Notre Dame and then not get too embarrassed by Georgia and with a FSU scalp, they would like grab a chair

Kansas - have to go undefeated or one loss and beat Kansas St - there is a chance

NC State - if they beat Tennessee and jump over conference hurdles - there is a chance if undefeated

Iowa - depending on how they fare against Ohio St and if they win all others, they could be in top 12

Memphis - if they knockoff Florida St and go undefeated? They have a Top 5 offense!!

Maybe > Kentucky? .... just don't see a pathway for anyone else given the schedules of the teams posted above and how they are set up for the season. WHO YOU PLAY and how you win in those matchups will matter to committee, not just a perfect season or 1 loss in not in the lists above

Can we see Alabama losing to UGA early and Oklahoma late so they are a dog in the playoff.  I’d love to see that. 

Might happen or the opposite. Alabama might beat Kirby's Georgia with the ole power of the unknown coaching and motivation magic of DeBoer.... we don't know if Saban was slipping and a fresh perspective with the right touch was all the super mega star talent needed was a new maestro

That wipeout of a 70th ranked WKY is super impressive how the DEFENSE knuckled down and as I predicted early when I started this thread, DeBoer might not shut down the engines which might already feel different for that pack of stallions.....and really bring them together with a mojo feel

Alabama is interesting because they thrashed them.  On the flip WKy is not a strong team as in the past.  

Ahhh but Alabama is 'thought' to be not as strong but we all saw what this group did at the end of last year vs Michigan. 

W.Kentucky still should have been able to puts points up on the board at this RATING in ESPN+:

70.   WKU   -1.6    29.9 (60) << ranking of offense

Ohio St. allowed 6 pts to Akron in the same scenario at home and this offensive ranking:

133.   Akron   -22.2    6.9  (134) << ranking of offense

I am scientifically and data driven trained with my academic and profession despite sports analysis for over 45 years now and when I decided to use data along with research work into sports teams comparisons, my horse betting and sports betting has improved in results by 10% or more success rate. I have to respect what I see and what anomalies present themselves when they do in moments..... I am looking hard at the line Vegas put up for Alabama this week....MAYBE TOO LOW also ?

I know you love data and it drives your decisions, so it should....and that is partly the reason why you keep a log of all results and I respect that. 

But science suggests, recency and new information is far greater than just relying on past information alone ....but again, you cannot ignore past info derived by methodology....but you can use it as a guide in my opinion to combine it with recency data to make as sound of a decision as possible on your future bet thesis. YICK ....talking science about my hobby enjoyment but its in me bro and I cannot deny the improvements in results I have noticed by deploying a blend of both. 

The Alabama data when correlated with the Ohio St data is quite compelling to suggest to me Alabama is a different animal than expected to start the season. We saw last year they were less prepared and almost tentative to start their season but not this year!! Will DeBoer even take them higher? I bet he can

Recency is a huge factor as the books use perception to kill. 

Yes. 

But there are tons of what I call cerebral betters who take a side on the what was down is now up philosophy and I frankly don't know if that fits anymore.....collection of talent and coaching them up is a deadlier combo...even add experience

Clemson vs Georgia had Vegas sending mixed signals to the public bettor who got faked out taking Clemson on the dropping line over rating that it has to be the fact Etienne is not playing and Cade had somehow matured into perfect footwork and mechanics but if you watched, Kirby forced him into situations where he couldn't get his feet set