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is MICHIGAN -9.5 the BIGGEST TRAP OF THE YEAR ????

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Posted: #26
Double your better than this. Michigan hasnt been sharp we all know that but Purdue really come on man. Purdue wont last 4 quarters. remember michigan starts converting red zone field goals to tDs they would win all games much easier. u really think purdue has 4 quarters of foot all.

i would argue air force and Cincy are both better opponents than mizz.

florida greater than ville.

i mean penn state -13 at iowa and we are talking bout tge michigan line.

penn state is super overrated. playing shit teams.

okie demolished pitt.

penn state just won.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by mtp104:

Double your better than this. Michigan hasnt been sharp we all know that but Purdue really come on man. Purdue wont last 4 quarters. remember michigan starts converting red zone field goals to tDs they would win all games much easier. u really think purdue has 4 quarters of foot all.

i would argue air force and Cincy are both better opponents than mizz.

florida greater than ville.

i mean penn state -13 at iowa and we are talking bout tge michigan line.

penn state is super overrated. playing garbage teams.

okie demolished pitt.

penn state just won.

Yeah, Double the AUDACITY of you to speculate that Michigan is trap bet.

(Pssst. This poster likely isn't even betting the game and if he is, he better put his whole roll on it calling you out like that).
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

Michigan's freshman WR Tarik Black out with broken foot.

Aaaaand one of the most important posts in the entire thread gets ignored, all with a team already struggling to put up points.

Thanks Stump
 
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Posted: #29
Tarik Black is a good physical WR but DPJ has the talent to really give defenses problems. I don't think losing Black is that big of a blow considering the WR class we had last year but it comes down to Speight in the end. Doesn't matter how great our WRs are if Speight isn't accurate. 
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by DynastyOne:

Tarik Black is a good physical WR but DPJ has the talent to really give defenses problems. I don't think losing Black is that big of a blow considering the WR class we had last year but it comes down to Speight in the end. Doesn't matter how great our WRs are if Speight isn't accurate. 
It matters when your team can't score and you are laying 9.5. Period.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

It matters when your team can't score and you are laying 9.5. Period.

You want to play Purdue so bad, you should play it. I'm not saying it's a bad bet but the Michigan defense is fast and David Blough better get the ball out of hands of quickly. We leave our DBs on an island so if their OL holds up, he will get his shots downfield. Michigan has the worst RZ offense right now so you have that in your favor. GL
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by DynastyOne:


You want to play Purdue so bad, you should play it. I'm not saying it's a bad bet but the Michigan defense is fast and David Blough better get the ball out of hands of quickly. We leave our DBs on an island so if their OL holds up, he will get his shots downfield. Michigan has the worst RZ offense right now so you have that in your favor. GL

This is a good point. Michigan's D should penetrate the pass protection much better than Mizzu. And Mizzu was in the Purdue backfield quite often in obvious passing situations. Those quick short passes much harder to come by playing Mich.

But Purdue is not a passing team, they need to run. They need to have 3rd and shorts to be successful. Stopping the Purdue run wins this game.

Michigan losing Black hurts, but Crawford coming on, and Peoples-Jones may get his chance too. Perry is ok and McDoom should have success against this D. So not as bad as it seems.
Now Isaac not playing will hurt, IF he is out, NOBODY KNOWS yet.
But there are a stable of RB's too, so not really bad.

I really think Purdue comes out and smacks Michigan in the face. Then Don Brown makes the right adjustments and Purdue slows right down.
The Michigan offense is the big question mark.

I'm not betting on this one.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Yeah, Double the AUDACITY of you to speculate that Michigan is trap bet.

(Pssst. This poster likely isn't even betting the game and if he is, he better put his whole roll on it calling you out like that).


Ok let me make this clear and I know Double knows this from previous posts.  I respect the heck out of him and his plays.  


WHAT IS SO WRONG WITH NOT Agreeing with someone lol.  I'm not personally attacking double I simply do not agree just like week 1 when I said Michigan would beat the heck out of Florida.  Im not some 20 year college student trying to make money SCAL!!!  

I already put Michigan in at -9.5 and yes its a small wager b/c I also think Purdue has earned some cred.  But talent is way off in all areas in this one.  4 quarters of michigan is not MIZZ U or VIlle.   

TRAP bet nah  this is Michigan stock being low low low buy buy buy.
 
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Posted: #34
This is a fascinating game because it really has a chance to decide both teams seasons. Michigan can get things corrected and go on the road and take some momentum from a solid win against an up and coming football team. If they lose, their season might go downhill quickly. Rivalry game on deck for them. Road games at Penn State and Wisconsin to come. Oh, and of course ending the year with The Game against a team that has their number the last decade. 

Purdue could make themselves and everyone else believers with a win in this one.

One of the keys to this one is going to be whether or not Purdue executes their trick plays. Expect Brohm to pull out all the stops. The Boilers should have some opportunities with an extremely aggressive M defense. Can they convert them though? This is something to watch and makes it a challenge to cap, IMO.

Speight is the obvious wild card but he has looked abysmal this season. He does not look in synch at all. 
 
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Posted: #35
On the flip side let's look at Purdue. Found this on a Purdue website;

Purdue is thin at many positions — nearly all of them, aside from running back and tight end, perhaps — so it wouldn’t be surprising if Brohm sat players during practice to try to get them as healthy as possible by Saturday.

“(It) may be a hodgepodge practice week as far as how many guys can really participate the whole week,” he said. “We've got to be smart with it, but also we've got to get them to practice and get in the flow again. That's going to be a challenge.”

So Purdue has it's share of injuries too.

"The Boilers should have some opportunities with an extremely aggressive M defense. Can they convert them though? This is something to watch and makes it a challenge to cap, IMO."

robruckus, couldn't agree more!

Just looking back at Cincy and Air Force gives Brohm plenty to see. Cincy used bubble screens, Air Force attacked the edges. With aggressive defense the "rub" play works. This coach is smart and Michigan will have to adjust constantly.

Should be a good chess game.




 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:


This is a good point. Michigan's D should penetrate the pass protection much better than Mizzu. And Mizzu was in the Purdue backfield quite often in obvious passing situations. Those quick short passes much harder to come by playing Mich.

But Purdue is not a passing team, they need to run. They need to have 3rd and shorts to be successful. Stopping the Purdue run wins this game.

Michigan losing Black hurts, but Crawford coming on, and Peoples-Jones may get his chance too. Perry is ok and McDoom should have success against this D. So not as bad as it seems.
Now Isaac not playing will hurt, IF he is out, NOBODY KNOWS yet.
But there are a stable of RB's too, so not really bad.

I really think Purdue comes out and smacks Michigan in the face. Then Don Brown makes the right adjustments and Purdue slows right down.
The Michigan offense is the big question mark.

I'm not betting on this one.

Their OL vs our Front 7, good luck with that. You won't be very successful running the ball 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

52% of the tickets currently on Purdue
No Fu@$ing way 
 
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Posted: #38
Purdue is going to sell out the game (the first sell-out in over half a decade (or longer). 

MTP - IF you went small! You cannot call out Double like that! It's not warranted!


 
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Posted: #39
line is up to -10 on 5dimes
 
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Posted: #40
Purdue hasn't faced a defense with a pulse.  Michigan is big fast and nasty. The Michigan defense might outscore Purdue

This just seems like a mismatch. Be careful as a lot of square money coming in on Purdue 
 
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Posted: #41
That's it. The game I feared the Giants would put up, they did.

But again, it makes for good bets later on.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

No Fu@$ing way 

That was yesterday, pretty much 24 hours ago.

It's now 61% on Purdue.


 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:

Purdue hasn't faced a defense with a pulse.  Michigan is big fast and nasty. The Michigan defense might outscore Purdue

This just seems like a mismatch. Be careful as a lot of square money coming in on Purdue 

On the other side of the coin, Michigan hasn't faced an offense as good as Purdue's. Not buying into Florida.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

Brotha Dub, I can't even call 9.5 a trap line. I think it's a very valid and fair line based on what we've seen from thess two teams. I won't go into details because they've all been covered beautifully in this thread, including by you. And while Michigan could quite possibly cover this spread by a mile, this is a no-bet spot or a spot to take the points and/or sprinkle a little bit on Purdue ML. Shot out to Scal whose expert analysis of Purdue has already come to fruition.


Thanks for dropping by 

Much respect Brother 


Huge shout out to Scal for having the guts to Back Purdue , Playing a schedule That they would likely be the DOG in 10 of 12 games ....
He does his research and has some of the best write ups on Covers ... 

This is likely a NO bet spot for me as well ...Tempted to Take Purdue team total Over when released (52)   ...Hoping for 21 or less ....

BEST OF LUCK BROTHER 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by mtp104:

Double your better than this. Michigan hasnt been sharp we all know that but Purdue really come on man. Purdue wont last 4 quarters. remember michigan starts converting red zone field goals to tDs they would win all games much easier. u really think purdue has 4 quarters of foot all.

i would argue air force and Cincy are both better opponents than mizz.

florida greater than ville.

i mean penn state -13 at iowa and we are talking bout tge michigan line.

penn state is super overrated. playing garbage teams.

okie demolished pitt.

penn state just won.


It's good to disagree BROTHER ( on a slew of things )
One of the best things about our fantastic forum ....

THANKS FOR DROPPING BY 


The #8 team in the country Michigan is laying only 10 , at a school that has been horrible for far too long ......Seems as the Odds makers are begging for Michigan  ATS bets and Wheeled ML Teasers and parlays ....SUPER FISHY IMNHO 

Worried about the Michigan offense vs anyone with a pulse ... Can they keep up with Better teams ????   NOT SAYING PURDUE is the Real deal  and  will  beat Michigan , but 

I LOVE HARBAUGH .... Much respect ...Maybe this is the game they step up and Win impressively ...


.Odds makers seemed sharp in the Pre season when they set a Low Season wins # for Michigan at only 9...


Can't wait to watch it play out on the field 



Penn State is NOT overrated .... Believe on the most days they could compete vs anyone in the country ..That being said I hope they lose out right at Iowa .
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:



It's good to disagree BROTHER ( on a slew of things )
One of the best things about our fantastic forum ....

THANKS FOR DROPPING BY 


The #8 team in the country Michigan is laying only 10 , at a school that has been horrible for far too long ......Seems as the Odds makers are begging for Michigan  ATS bets and Wheeled ML Teasers and parlays ....SUPER FISHY IMNHO 

Worried about the Michigan offense vs anyone with a pulse ... Can they keep up with Better teams ????   NOT SAYING PURDUE is the Real deal  and  will  beat Michigan , but 

I LOVE HARBAUGH .... Much respect ...Maybe this is the game they step up and Win impressively ...


.Odds makers seemed sharp in the Pre season when they set a Low Season wins # for Michigan at only 9...


Can't wait to watch it play out on the field 



Penn State is NOT overrated .... Believe on the most days they could compete vs anyone in the country ..That being said I hope they lose out right at Iowa .


Reverse trap??


I was thinking Michigan -13 should have been the line. Begging for Michigan money

 
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Posted: #47
Here is my take on it, Michigan covers easily.  The reason is simple...defense.

Michigan defense thrives playing against spread offenses.  They chew them up and spit them out.  If Michigan score 24, which they will, they cover the spread.

Michigan defense points against the spread since Down Brown arrived:

14 - Cincinnati
3 - Florida (offense only scored 3)
20 - Ohio State (double overtime, 1 defensive TD, an interception returned to the Michigan 13 leading to another TD)
10 - Indiana
3 - Maryland
8 - Illinois (4th quarter TD against 3rd string)
0 - Rutgers
10 - Penn State (yes, that Penn State)
28 Colorado - The one anomaly but proved to be a very good offense.
14 - UCF
3 - Hawaii


10.2 is the average offensive points per game the Michigan defense gives up against the spread.  

Michigan is averaging 32.6 points per game with the offense struggling.  

I'm no rocket surgeon, but this one seems pretty easy to me.  Purdue may have some confidence, but how quickly does that confidence go away now that they are playing the first good defense on their schedule?  What does a few three and outs do to their psyche?

The question you have to ask yourself, do you really think Purdue has gotten that much better from last years team?  The same team that lost to Wisconsin 49-20 which would be the closest comparison to this game.  

Anything under 17 is a steal in this game.  It's the one game this weekend that the books screwed up and it's because of a perfect storm of Purdue looking very good against terrible teams (sans an average Louisville team) and Michigan not blowing out some decent teams.  

Good luck if you're backing Purdue, but I don't see how this game is close.  Just remember, this simple phrase "Michigan's defense owns the spread offense."  



 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:

I watched Purdue dismantle a good Missouri team, terrible defense, but great QB. They have been impressive. I watched Michigan struggle against Florida and Air Force. Purdue + is my biggest bet of the year.

You must be the only person on the planet that thought Michigan struggled against Florida....your point of view on games cracks me up.
 
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Posted: #49
Michigan will cover the 10.  When a team is a lot better than another team in its own conference the games can get messy, as the better team will not stop trying on either side of the ball and if they are better on both sides of the ball, it is going to be a lopsided game.  This game screams Michigan to cover the 10.  It shouldn't even be close.  The Michigan that is so highly touted this early in the season will be on the field Saturday vs. Purdue, and Purdue will be over matched.  Good luck to all bettors on the game.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:

Purdue hasn't faced a defense with a pulse.  Michigan is big fast and nasty. The Michigan defense might outscore Purdue

This just seems like a mismatch. Be careful as a lot of square money coming in on Purdue 
that's why they call it 'square' money,  taking Purdue on the ML is not only the most ridiculous wager on the NCAAF betting  board, but boasting your wager in a forum as though it has meaning, is downright stupid.....Look for Michigan to blow the Boilermakers off of their home field, -9 cash's; don't fool yourself with absurd handicapping ideology; right, "Purdue is going to beat Michigan this week, take them on the ML"  I seriously doubt if Purdue scores a TD, and you can take that to the bank " just saying, to each his own...enjoy the game
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