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    All Forums | College Football

    If LSU & Alabama meet in NC game, what will the spread be?

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    Str8cashhomes
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    TomLoker
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    Str8cashhomes
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    Posted: Nov. 25, 2011 - 7:04 PM ET #126

    First time posting, been following for a while just hand to throw in my 2 cents..

    I made a lot of money on LSU a few weeks ago against bama... having said that, the right play was Bama.  

    Spread for the National Championship is going to be LSU by prob 2-2.5 and I'll be takin the points
    Reply
    First time posting, been following for a while just hand to throw in my 2 cents..

    I made a lot of money on LSU a few weeks ago against bama... having said that, the right play was Bama.  

    Spread for the National Championship is going to be LSU by prob 2-2.5 and I'll be takin the points
     
    DOVJAK
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    Posted: Nov. 25, 2011 - 7:07 PM ET #127

    lsu-o.5  haha
    Reply
    lsu-o.5  haha
     
    wackycracker
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    Posted: Nov. 25, 2011 - 8:29 PM ET #128

    Wow I started to read from the back to the front---mistake---I'm saying LSU -between- 7 and -9.5---think of the possibilities for the books on this one ----oh andthe over / under will fall into the 45 --49.5 range.Go ahead and tear me apart , but trust your numbers,It does seem large but so is the take.....
    Reply
    Wow I started to read from the back to the front---mistake---I'm saying LSU -between- 7 and -9.5---think of the possibilities for the books on this one ----oh andthe over / under will fall into the 45 --49.5 range.Go ahead and tear me apart , but trust your numbers,It does seem large but so is the take.....
     
    TomLoker
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    Posted: Nov. 25, 2011 - 10:10 PM ET #129

    Right now it would be a pick 'em.  In a rematch Alabama wins by 3.
    Reply
    Right now it would be a pick 'em.  In a rematch Alabama wins by 3.
     
    LETGOPACK1234
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    Posted: Nov. 25, 2011 - 10:16 PM ET #130

    Quote Originally Posted by nc1capper:

    o/u would be halftime on when I fell asleep - please spare us another defensive snoozer, I'm getting drowsy just thinking of this yawner

     

    Yeah, I would rather watch teams like Okl or Ok St in there who give up 50+ points in a game....

    Go play video games if thats what you like to watch...

    Football is great when every 1st down is crucial and the first TO could be the end of the game.

    Teams like Oklahoma or Ok St, teams score 50 on their home field???  WR catch the ball without a guy 15 yards from him...its a joke.  Teams like that should stay in the MAC

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by nc1capper:

    o/u would be halftime on when I fell asleep - please spare us another defensive snoozer, I'm getting drowsy just thinking of this yawner

     

    Yeah, I would rather watch teams like Okl or Ok St in there who give up 50+ points in a game....

    Go play video games if thats what you like to watch...

    Football is great when every 1st down is crucial and the first TO could be the end of the game.

    Teams like Oklahoma or Ok St, teams score 50 on their home field???  WR catch the ball without a guy 15 yards from him...its a joke.  Teams like that should stay in the MAC

     
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2011 - 12:12 AM ET #131

    Ice4Blood said it best in another thread


    LSU has beaten 3 teams ranked in the top 3 at the time... they have a perfect 1.0 ranking in the BCS, meaning they rank 1st in every single human and computer poll... they just ripped apart the #3 (albeit slightly overrated) Razorbacks... they have beaten every team that Alabama beat...

    AND... they beat Alabama... in Alabama...


    Now spreads are created via power rankings, numbers, field advantage, perception. When Alabama faced LSU at home they were seen as the better team. The numbers stated that..so they opened as a -4 fav. Neutral Field it would of opened Alabama -1 to -1.5 fav. Since then LSU has gone on to beat #2 Alabama and #3 Arkansas. As well increased their offensive production.

    But more importanly they also have done something Ice4Blood mentioned that has not been in the last 5 years of the BCS and thats be #1 in EVERY POSSIBLE poll used in the BCS. How can a team be #1 in every power ranking, every human poll, every computer poll as well as put togther one of the more impressive schedules of a #1 team in the last 14 years of CFB be an underdog on a neutral field to ANY TEAM; let alone a team they have already beaten ON THE ROAD.

    I said it last week they would be a -2 fav but Im starting to believe if Alabama does not dominate Auburn and LSU destroys UGA next week, LSU opens as a -2.5 fav.

    Reply

    Ice4Blood said it best in another thread


    LSU has beaten 3 teams ranked in the top 3 at the time... they have a perfect 1.0 ranking in the BCS, meaning they rank 1st in every single human and computer poll... they just ripped apart the #3 (albeit slightly overrated) Razorbacks... they have beaten every team that Alabama beat...

    AND... they beat Alabama... in Alabama...


    Now spreads are created via power rankings, numbers, field advantage, perception. When Alabama faced LSU at home they were seen as the better team. The numbers stated that..so they opened as a -4 fav. Neutral Field it would of opened Alabama -1 to -1.5 fav. Since then LSU has gone on to beat #2 Alabama and #3 Arkansas. As well increased their offensive production.

    But more importanly they also have done something Ice4Blood mentioned that has not been in the last 5 years of the BCS and thats be #1 in EVERY POSSIBLE poll used in the BCS. How can a team be #1 in every power ranking, every human poll, every computer poll as well as put togther one of the more impressive schedules of a #1 team in the last 14 years of CFB be an underdog on a neutral field to ANY TEAM; let alone a team they have already beaten ON THE ROAD.

    I said it last week they would be a -2 fav but Im starting to believe if Alabama does not dominate Auburn and LSU destroys UGA next week, LSU opens as a -2.5 fav.

     
    DoubleUp4Life
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2011 - 12:20 AM ET #132

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

    Book it -6.5


    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

    Book it -6.5


     
    bookieassassin
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2011 - 1:28 AM ET #133

    KEY factors here...in setting the line...in a game of this magnitude

    has little to do with who is the better team.....

    but how the game will be bet....and at what numbers might limit potential exposure to the book....

    *eg...raw numbers might just say 6-7 points (don't think so)....but that number couldn't be offered....because it would get HAMMERED by Bama $$....(even the drunkest of cajuns ain't gonna lay a TD here)....forcing books to drop at some point where it should be anyway.....2'-3'....exposing the books in an ugly way...

    only way I could see LSU not being favored by at least 1'-3....is if Georgia plays them close..(or they just look bad)..and Bama just destroys Auburn....sharps/public love LSU so something big would have to happen IMO.....
    It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
    Reply
    KEY factors here...in setting the line...in a game of this magnitude

    has little to do with who is the better team.....

    but how the game will be bet....and at what numbers might limit potential exposure to the book....

    *eg...raw numbers might just say 6-7 points (don't think so)....but that number couldn't be offered....because it would get HAMMERED by Bama $$....(even the drunkest of cajuns ain't gonna lay a TD here)....forcing books to drop at some point where it should be anyway.....2'-3'....exposing the books in an ugly way...

    only way I could see LSU not being favored by at least 1'-3....is if Georgia plays them close..(or they just look bad)..and Bama just destroys Auburn....sharps/public love LSU so something big would have to happen IMO.....
     
    Lucan
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2011 - 1:43 AM ET #134

    Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

    KEY factors here...in setting the line...in a game of this magnitude

    has little to do with who is the better team.....

    but how the game will be bet....and at what numbers might limit potential exposure to the book....

    *eg...raw numbers might just say 6-7 points (don't think so)....but that number couldn't be offered....because it would get HAMMERED by Bama $$....(even the drunkest of cajuns ain't gonna lay a TD here)....forcing books to drop at some point where it should be anyway.....2'-3'....exposing the books in an ugly way...

    only way I could see LSU not being favored by at least 1'-3....is if Georgia plays them close..(or they just look bad)..and Bama just destroys Auburn....sharps/public love LSU so something big would have to happen IMO.....

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

    KEY factors here...in setting the line...in a game of this magnitude

    has little to do with who is the better team.....

    but how the game will be bet....and at what numbers might limit potential exposure to the book....

    *eg...raw numbers might just say 6-7 points (don't think so)....but that number couldn't be offered....because it would get HAMMERED by Bama $$....(even the drunkest of cajuns ain't gonna lay a TD here)....forcing books to drop at some point where it should be anyway.....2'-3'....exposing the books in an ugly way...

    only way I could see LSU not being favored by at least 1'-3....is if Georgia plays them close..(or they just look bad)..and Bama just destroys Auburn....sharps/public love LSU so something big would have to happen IMO.....

     
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2011 - 8:51 PM ET #135

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

      It is a neutral site, and Alabama will be favored.

     

    But you just said LSU will be -2.5 now? What gives Jimmy? Just 4 days ago you were willing to bet ALABAMA would open up a fav not there almost a 3 point dog

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

      It is a neutral site, and Alabama will be favored.

     

    But you just said LSU will be -2.5 now? What gives Jimmy? Just 4 days ago you were willing to bet ALABAMA would open up a fav not there almost a 3 point dog

     
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2011 - 8:53 PM ET #136

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101194135&page=2    post 28 Jimmy says LSU -2.5....what is it? You're calling for 2 different spreads. Why the flip flop...oh I see after seeing the error in your ways YOU SMARTEN UP! I dont blame you at all
    Reply
    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101194135&page=2    post 28 Jimmy says LSU -2.5....what is it? You're calling for 2 different spreads. Why the flip flop...oh I see after seeing the error in your ways YOU SMARTEN UP! I dont blame you at all
     
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2011 - 8:46 AM ET #137

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    What you or I believe is inconsequential.  The people who set the line have already said they will make Alabama the favorite.  You can take it or leave it.

     



    WRONG! What I say is consequential because I do not make empty responses. I have my own set of power rankings and I have done pretty well setting my own spreads to contest such as this. To be off more then 3 points is a slap to my own face. You on the other hand have no clue how to set a line nor do you know how power rankings WORK! You read garbage from a Covers "expert" and regard it as scripture. You made yourself look like a know it all clown in this thread. And you were COMPLETELY off!

    LSU -2 at two offshore books. The market line has been set and will be sold at a half point up or below from here on out

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    What you or I believe is inconsequential.  The people who set the line have already said they will make Alabama the favorite.  You can take it or leave it.

     



    WRONG! What I say is consequential because I do not make empty responses. I have my own set of power rankings and I have done pretty well setting my own spreads to contest such as this. To be off more then 3 points is a slap to my own face. You on the other hand have no clue how to set a line nor do you know how power rankings WORK! You read garbage from a Covers "expert" and regard it as scripture. You made yourself look like a know it all clown in this thread. And you were COMPLETELY off!

    LSU -2 at two offshore books. The market line has been set and will be sold at a half point up or below from here on out

     
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2011 - 8:49 AM ET #138

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    Well, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and are entitled to believe whatever they want, but if the people who are setting the lines have said they will Alabama the favorite, I'm not sure what the issue is.

      I suspect that, unlike Smoke, the odds makers actually watched the first game.

     



    And look, just like I said 2 weeks ago the oddsmakers....the gentlemen you hold in such high regards have sided with me and set the early line at LSU -2....again you need to stop typing about things such as this...because you have absolutely NO CLUE WTF you are talking about!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    Well, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and are entitled to believe whatever they want, but if the people who are setting the lines have said they will Alabama the favorite, I'm not sure what the issue is.

      I suspect that, unlike Smoke, the odds makers actually watched the first game.

     



    And look, just like I said 2 weeks ago the oddsmakers....the gentlemen you hold in such high regards have sided with me and set the early line at LSU -2....again you need to stop typing about things such as this...because you have absolutely NO CLUE WTF you are talking about!
     
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2011 - 8:53 AM ET #139

    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke_O:

    read this random articles and believe them if you want...But what some oddsmakers said 2 weeks, or even last week WILL NOT be what is released in a few weeks. almsot 3 weeks worth of games against good competition for LSU and you believe that a line set last week is indicative of what it will be in a month?

    You said I didnt watch the game? I watched every minute of that shit fest and ALabama STILL LOST THE GAME AT HOME! That says a lot to me and that was against a bad gameplan and performance from LSU on the road. Spread will open AT WORST pk. But I see LSU opening at -2. And Im willing to put money on that as well!

    I bet you 2 weeks ago those same oddsmakers would not have open Michigan as -8.5 favs against Ohio State. But tonight they did. Perception and the formulas that set spreads change over time. Come the middle of December you will see



    Wasted my time going back and forth with some idiot who thinks he knows how to set spreads. I called this line 2 WEEKS AGO and was spot on! LSU -2 has released early at 2 books BETONLINE and 5dimes...Tony at 5dimes has been in this business a long time and Im sure most of the other shops will be releasing a similar #...but what do I know. Good thing JimmyDaLoser weasled his way out of a respective bet. Keep reading those Covers.com expert articles and I'll keep talking shop with respectable bettors and shop managers at ground zero.


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke_O:

    read this random articles and believe them if you want...But what some oddsmakers said 2 weeks, or even last week WILL NOT be what is released in a few weeks. almsot 3 weeks worth of games against good competition for LSU and you believe that a line set last week is indicative of what it will be in a month?

    You said I didnt watch the game? I watched every minute of that shit fest and ALabama STILL LOST THE GAME AT HOME! That says a lot to me and that was against a bad gameplan and performance from LSU on the road. Spread will open AT WORST pk. But I see LSU opening at -2. And Im willing to put money on that as well!

    I bet you 2 weeks ago those same oddsmakers would not have open Michigan as -8.5 favs against Ohio State. But tonight they did. Perception and the formulas that set spreads change over time. Come the middle of December you will see



    Wasted my time going back and forth with some idiot who thinks he knows how to set spreads. I called this line 2 WEEKS AGO and was spot on! LSU -2 has released early at 2 books BETONLINE and 5dimes...Tony at 5dimes has been in this business a long time and Im sure most of the other shops will be releasing a similar #...but what do I know. Good thing JimmyDaLoser weasled his way out of a respective bet. Keep reading those Covers.com expert articles and I'll keep talking shop with respectable bettors and shop managers at ground zero.


     
    Smoke_O
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2011 - 8:56 AM ET #140

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    Alabama would undoubtably be favored again.  

    Look for a line between 2.5 - 4.

    See the following link.

    Vegas says Bama would be favored over LSU in a rematch.

    "If the BCS system does produce LSU-Alabama II in the National Championship Game in New Orleans, multiple oddsmakers told Covers.com that the Tide would still be a small favorite over LSU."  

    https://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=252482   

     

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    Alabama would undoubtably be favored again.  

    Look for a line between 2.5 - 4.

    See the following link.

    Vegas says Bama would be favored over LSU in a rematch.

    "If the BCS system does produce LSU-Alabama II in the National Championship Game in New Orleans, multiple oddsmakers told Covers.com that the Tide would still be a small favorite over LSU."  

    https://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=252482   

     

     
    Candyman2011
    Candyman2011
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2011 - 9:03 AM ET #141

    Offshore you can get it now bama +1.5 bet is void if they do not play
    Reply
    Offshore you can get it now bama +1.5 bet is void if they do not play
     
    nextleveldave
    nextleveldave
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2011 - 9:22 AM ET #142

    i would still take LSU -9.5
    Reply
    i would still take LSU -9.5
     
    Smoke_O
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2011 - 7:16 PM ET #143

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    Alabama would undoubtably be favored again.  Look for a line between 2.5 - 4.

    See the following link.

    Vegas says Bama would be favored over LSU in a rematch.

    "If the BCS system does produce LSU-Alabama II in the National Championship Game in New Orleans, multiple oddsmakers told Covers.com that the Tide would still be a small favorite over LSU."

    https://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=252482

     



    Hey Jimmy do you still believe this?

    28 unanswered points to UGA in the SEC Championship game. Yep they will UNDOUBTEDLY be a FG dog to Alabama in the NC game

    This is the best most dominating team I have seen since the 1994 Nebraska Cornhuskers...SHAME on you for thinking they should be dogs to ANYONE on a neutral field! Just a reckless and baseless statement!

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    Alabama would undoubtably be favored again.  Look for a line between 2.5 - 4.

    See the following link.

    Vegas says Bama would be favored over LSU in a rematch.

    "If the BCS system does produce LSU-Alabama II in the National Championship Game in New Orleans, multiple oddsmakers told Covers.com that the Tide would still be a small favorite over LSU."

    https://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=252482

     



    Hey Jimmy do you still believe this?

    28 unanswered points to UGA in the SEC Championship game. Yep they will UNDOUBTEDLY be a FG dog to Alabama in the NC game

    This is the best most dominating team I have seen since the 1994 Nebraska Cornhuskers...SHAME on you for thinking they should be dogs to ANYONE on a neutral field! Just a reckless and baseless statement!

     
    Smoke_O
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2011 - 7:49 PM ET #144

    make that 35 unanswered points against UGA. They will DEFINITELY be a 3 point dog against Bama now. They were so dead on

    Reply
    make that 35 unanswered points against UGA. They will DEFINITELY be a 3 point dog against Bama now. They were so dead on

     
    Smoke_O
    Smoke_O
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2011 - 8:04 PM ET #145

    Also something of note. This will be LSU 3rd time playing for the National title in the Super Dome. How could they possibly be a dog in a quasi home game where they are 2-0 in BCS title games.
    Reply
    Also something of note. This will be LSU 3rd time playing for the National title in the Super Dome. How could they possibly be a dog in a quasi home game where they are 2-0 in BCS title games.
     
    forkball
    forkball
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2011 - 8:17 PM ET #146

    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke_O:

    Also something of note. This will be LSU 3rd time playing for the National title in the Super Dome. How could they possibly be a dog in a quasi home game where they are 2-0 in BCS title games.

    Because Bama should've beaten em the first time.  Field goal kicker as we  all know lost that game.

    Bama moved the ball more consistently in that game as evidenced by the amount of fg attemps vs. LSU. 

    LSU opportunistic in all phases makes them scary in every game including the NCS.

    I'll take Bama up to 3 points in this one and hope the Honey Badger is kept in check.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke_O:

    Also something of note. This will be LSU 3rd time playing for the National title in the Super Dome. How could they possibly be a dog in a quasi home game where they are 2-0 in BCS title games.

    Because Bama should've beaten em the first time.  Field goal kicker as we  all know lost that game.

    Bama moved the ball more consistently in that game as evidenced by the amount of fg attemps vs. LSU. 

    LSU opportunistic in all phases makes them scary in every game including the NCS.

    I'll take Bama up to 3 points in this one and hope the Honey Badger is kept in check.

     
    Tappy
    Tappy
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2011 - 8:33 PM ET #147

    LSU will be favored against Bama, but it will only be by about 2.5 points. 
    Reply
    LSU will be favored against Bama, but it will only be by about 2.5 points. 
     
    Tappy
    Tappy
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2011 - 8:33 PM ET #148

    I tried to tell everyone that LSU and Bama are a step ahead of the rest of these teams...
    Reply
    I tried to tell everyone that LSU and Bama are a step ahead of the rest of these teams...
     
    forkball
    forkball
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2011 - 8:41 PM ET #149

    Clearly.  Defense wins championships and today was further evidence of LSU's domination.  Only Bama can compare.
    Reply
    Clearly.  Defense wins championships and today was further evidence of LSU's domination.  Only Bama can compare.
     
     
    Tappy
    Tappy
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2011 - 8:42 PM ET #150

    Quote Originally Posted by forkball:

    Clearly.  Defense wins championships and today was further evidence of LSU's domination.  Only Bama can compare.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by forkball:

    Clearly.  Defense wins championships and today was further evidence of LSU's domination.  Only Bama can compare.

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