Time to get back on the winning track....Here are my picks for the week...my pick is on the left. Home team is in CAPS. Which ones do you like? Good luck to all...Analysis to follow:
liberty -10.5 KENNESAW STATE
western michigan +3.5 TOLEDO
BALL STATE -10.5 sacramento state
san diego state -3 COLORADA STATE
TEXAS STATE -9.5 utah state
NEW MEXICO -4.5 north dakota state
liberty -10.5 KENNESAW STATE
Uncle Huge is about to give you the 411 on a Thanksgiving turkey in October. Yes Liberty is a school where you go to wash your brain and get indoctrinated...but they also play football there...good football.
Liberty Flames -10.5 is not a bet. It's a charitable donation FROM the books TO us. Vegas put this line at 10.5 like they're doing Kennesaw State a favor. Sweetheart, you could make this 17.5 and I'd still be pounding it like my keyboard when my wife catches me on OnlyFans.
Let's talk about these two teams, because one is an actual FBS football program and the other is just cosplaying as one for NIL money.
Liberty is 5-1. Lost a one-score heartbreaker 20-13 to a JMU juggernaut that eats small children for breakfast in Week 1, then decided losing was for losers and ripped off FIVE straight wins. They've COVERED this number in each of their last four games against teams that would curb-stomp Kennesaw State in a parking lot brawl. They just waxed Sam Houston 35-3. 35 to 3! That's not a football score, that's what happens when a varsity team scrimmages the JV.
Why? Because the numbers are FILTHY.
The Flames are averaging 31.2 points per game while this defense is an absolute chastity belt - 15.3 points allowed per game, 15th in the entire country. 291.7 yards allowed per game [19th in FBS], 167.5 passing yards allowed, third down defense? 8th in the nation holding teams to 28.4%. That's not a defense, that's a restraining order.[15th]
And they RUN the damn ball. 223.0 rushing yards per game, 15th in the country. Kam Davis is averaging 7.1 yards per carry - 524 yards on just 74 carries. That's not running, that's gliding through Kennesaw's defense like it's a nude beach in Mykonos. What happens when you can easily run the ball on the road? The fans in the stands get quiet and head for the exits. Deshawn Purdie has thrown 8 TDs and ZERO picks. Zero. The man treats the football better than Kennesaw treats red zone defense.
Speaking of Kennesaw State - OH, KENNESAW STATE.
My poor, sweet, winless-against-FBS-competition Owls. 1-5. Lost five straight. Their lone win? 47-0 over West Georgia, who I think is a Division-II quilting club. Since then they've perfected the art of the gut-wrenching moral victory. Lost 24-21 to Missouri State last week on a field goal at the buzzer. Lost 27-26 the week before. Lost 17-14 before that. That's three straight losses by 3 or fewer points. You know what they call a team that keeps losing close? LOSERS. But don't get fooled by these close scores...the teams they lost to also suck.
The Kennesaw offense is anemic, impotent, and frankly needs Viagra. 22.3 points per game, 143.7 rushing yards. Rickie Collins IS their offense - leading passer AND leading rusher with 271 yards. When your QB is your best running back, you don't have a dual-threat, you have no threat.[106th][88th]
Kennesaw State's red zone defense ranks 132nd - DEAD LAST ADJACENT - allowing scores on 95.5% of trips. Liberty's red zone offense scores on 88.5% of trips, 45th nationally. That means every time Liberty crosses the 20, it's like they're entering a Motel 6 with no locks on the doors. Points are happening.
So let's do kindergarten math: If Kennesaw's pathetic offense is lucky to find the end zone more than once against this top-20 defense - say 10-14 points - and Liberty shoots its season average of 31 points... 31-14 = 17 point win. COVER BY A TOUCHDOWN.
PICK: Liberty -10.5 Liberty Bibberty
You make valid points....CSU has shown a lot of quit this season, and that's why I'm not high on them - especially with the QB situation. On the SDSU side they are getting over the mumps debacle and should be suiting up at a high point for the season. Just my opinion of course. Analysis to follow.
Best wishes of course
western michigan +3.5 TOLEDO
We’ve got MACtion at the Glass Bowl this Saturday. On paper, Toledo looks like a million bucks with John Alan Richter throwing filthy slants. They’re chucking for 273.4 yards per game and averaging 36.3 points. But let’s cut through the perfume and smell the actual garbage, shall we? Toledo’s consistency this season is lower than the Greece Ambassador's moral standards.
This Rockets squad is as flaky as scalp psoriasis. One week they’re putting up numbers, and the next they’re sweating out a horrific 49-48 overtime cluster-fk against a completely dysfunctional Temple roster, nearly suffocating on their own drool. Then, just when you think they’ve cleared the pipes, they lay a absolute rotten egg at home, losing 23-8 to a utterly garbage Buffalo squad as 18.5-point favorites! Even their wins against bottom-tier grease fires like Ball State and Eastern Michigan were about as impressive as a wet noodle in a windstorm. Oh, and did I mention Toledo ranks 126th in the FBS in penalty yards, burning up 76.0 yards a game in mindless infractions? They’ll shoot themselves in the dick before the third quarter even starts.
Meanwhile, Western Michigan is incoming like a brick through a stained-glass window. They made Bryce Underwood look like Ryan Leaf in the NFL and Michigan needed a fix is in do over to beat them. Power ratings don't lie: these two MAC beasts are separated by a razor-thin hair on a gnat's ass. But remember, defense wins championships. The Broncos bring a defense so stiff it’d make a porn star blush, surrendering a suffocating 16.9 points per game (25th in Division I). They roll with a grinding, slow-as-molasses, knuckle-dragging style—strangling the clock to a miserable 59 snaps per game. They run Jalen Buckley (542 yards, 7 TDs) down your throat until you're gagging on turf.
Western Michigan is rocking a +4 turnover margin (22nd in FBS) and ranks 17th nationally in red-zone defense, holding opponents to points on just 72.2% of trips. When Toledo’s undisciplined offense hits a wall inside the 20, they’re settling for field goals while Western Michigan chews through the clock like a starving dog on a meat rack.
Western Michigan's defense controls the trenches, forces a couple of back-breaking Rocket mistakes, and keeps this low-scoring brawl inside the field-goal margin all 60 minutes.
Pick: Western Michigan Broncos +3.5
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