3 years ago in Vegas a ticket writer explained to me how no matter what the number is or who the opponet was the public was going to back USC
1 USC is a powerhouse
2 Vegas is loaded with USC fans coming from LA
3 The media has hyped USC in recent times
Therefore, the linesmaker knows he can inflate the line 4-7 points and still get heavy action on the Trojans. I think the public teams are USC, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas. Ohio St, IMO, is a team of intrest because it seems every year a high % call the buckeyes over rated and perfer to fade them. Iam uncertain if they could still be viewed as a public team.
Same concept holds true in NCAA basketball. Joe public is always on North Carolina no matter what and IMO many squares lay money on Duke because of the name recognition.
So you are saying it effects the line before it comes out but once the line is there when people say "70 percent of the public has USC" that doesn't really matter because the oddsmakers already expected it, right? They knew they could make the line three points higher and the public would still pound USC. Is that what you are saying? I just want to make sure I am understanding your point.
Thanks for the feedback Chef. It's much appreciated.
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Quote Originally Posted by chef702:
3 years ago in Vegas a ticket writer explained to me how no matter what the number is or who the opponet was the public was going to back USC
1 USC is a powerhouse
2 Vegas is loaded with USC fans coming from LA
3 The media has hyped USC in recent times
Therefore, the linesmaker knows he can inflate the line 4-7 points and still get heavy action on the Trojans. I think the public teams are USC, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas. Ohio St, IMO, is a team of intrest because it seems every year a high % call the buckeyes over rated and perfer to fade them. Iam uncertain if they could still be viewed as a public team.
Same concept holds true in NCAA basketball. Joe public is always on North Carolina no matter what and IMO many squares lay money on Duke because of the name recognition.
So you are saying it effects the line before it comes out but once the line is there when people say "70 percent of the public has USC" that doesn't really matter because the oddsmakers already expected it, right? They knew they could make the line three points higher and the public would still pound USC. Is that what you are saying? I just want to make sure I am understanding your point.
Thanks for the feedback Chef. It's much appreciated.
Great stuff, especially the money management end of it.
However.
If you take out the word "public" and insert the word "sucker" it changes the nature of the debate. While it may not be "handicapping" to fade guys with a nose for the gullible loser, it can be very profitable. Consider it another tool in the box. There will be some guys who show up on Covers from time to time, spouting all kinds of nonsense (generally in the beginning of the season before they've blown their lunch money) who are easy to fade (TENN v ucla, last year was a big Covers "100 unit play" with the newbies). They also show up during the pro playoffs (Peyton is god!!!!) Call them the public or call them suckers or whatever you want. I have a couple of friends who are very accurate contrary barometers for big games. If they agree on a play, I generally will lay a few bucks against them without letting them know, of course. In general, if they independently (using a full line from an average football weekend) gravitate to the same side of a particular game, they are wrong about 70% of the time. I have documented this over a long period of time. Another thing is, these guys NEVER play the dogs. They jump on games where the favorite will "kill" the underdog for an "easy" cover. So, while the dogs win 50% of the time, as Nostra points out, the "public" or "sucker" or "Skip's Helpful Buddies" aren't looking for value, they're looking for the "sure thing" or the "free money" AKA "what the fuck are these dumbass bookies thinking?" play. Usually, this type of handicapping leads to the "WTF???" post or the "Football is Fixed!!" post. These "gamblers" usually disappear from Covers quickly (though occasionally they appear under another pseudonym after they've hit up their Daddies for more "Textbook money").
So, while it may not be handicapping (which I suck at about half the time), it is one way to make a profit gambling. Fading specific members of the "public" as opposed to fading a bunch of numbers--or "the public" in general--are two very different things.
55+% winners. That's what I want. And I don't care how I come about them. Trust my instincts. Fade the fools. Steal from good players like Nostra. Hell, play Phil Steele's newsletter picks or Cowherd's wheel of genius. Who cares? A winner is a winner.
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Great stuff, especially the money management end of it.
However.
If you take out the word "public" and insert the word "sucker" it changes the nature of the debate. While it may not be "handicapping" to fade guys with a nose for the gullible loser, it can be very profitable. Consider it another tool in the box. There will be some guys who show up on Covers from time to time, spouting all kinds of nonsense (generally in the beginning of the season before they've blown their lunch money) who are easy to fade (TENN v ucla, last year was a big Covers "100 unit play" with the newbies). They also show up during the pro playoffs (Peyton is god!!!!) Call them the public or call them suckers or whatever you want. I have a couple of friends who are very accurate contrary barometers for big games. If they agree on a play, I generally will lay a few bucks against them without letting them know, of course. In general, if they independently (using a full line from an average football weekend) gravitate to the same side of a particular game, they are wrong about 70% of the time. I have documented this over a long period of time. Another thing is, these guys NEVER play the dogs. They jump on games where the favorite will "kill" the underdog for an "easy" cover. So, while the dogs win 50% of the time, as Nostra points out, the "public" or "sucker" or "Skip's Helpful Buddies" aren't looking for value, they're looking for the "sure thing" or the "free money" AKA "what the fuck are these dumbass bookies thinking?" play. Usually, this type of handicapping leads to the "WTF???" post or the "Football is Fixed!!" post. These "gamblers" usually disappear from Covers quickly (though occasionally they appear under another pseudonym after they've hit up their Daddies for more "Textbook money").
So, while it may not be handicapping (which I suck at about half the time), it is one way to make a profit gambling. Fading specific members of the "public" as opposed to fading a bunch of numbers--or "the public" in general--are two very different things.
55+% winners. That's what I want. And I don't care how I come about them. Trust my instincts. Fade the fools. Steal from good players like Nostra. Hell, play Phil Steele's newsletter picks or Cowherd's wheel of genius. Who cares? A winner is a winner.
Just wandering how much do you suggest to have in the bank (account). I know it depends on how much you play. Just wanted some opinions. I think I will save more money to just wait for football instead of betting baseball because I am bored.
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Just wandering how much do you suggest to have in the bank (account). I know it depends on how much you play. Just wanted some opinions. I think I will save more money to just wait for football instead of betting baseball because I am bored.
jcgrox22 - many believe in having bankroll where average wager equals bankroll times 3-5% - example if $100 per wager/unit = 2-3K bankroll, $500 per wager/unit = 10K-15K bankroll, $1000 per wager/unit = 20K-30K, etc - bankroll should also be money you're not afraid to lose or will need in the near future
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bookie, skipster - good points, agreed
jcgrox22 - many believe in having bankroll where average wager equals bankroll times 3-5% - example if $100 per wager/unit = 2-3K bankroll, $500 per wager/unit = 10K-15K bankroll, $1000 per wager/unit = 20K-30K, etc - bankroll should also be money you're not afraid to lose or will need in the near future
Some good stuff in here guys. Just a couple of points. Parlay wagers are sucker wagers. You do not get nearly the true odds. Parlay bets make up a huge part of a books overall profit. Teasers are worse.
Nest, never believe what the books try to sell you as far as what the public is playing, because they are trying to mislead you. What the will not tell you is the percentage of the money being wagered, and if they do, be very suspicious because you are being played. No book will ever give out that information. My average size wager is rather large. If I bet 1 large on a game, and take team A, and 9 other people in here bet $100.00 and take team B, the books may tell you that the public is on Team B, but the money is actually on team A. Too many people try to play against Joe Pub, and that sets them up for a very easy bait and switch, by the wiseguys. Play your own wagers, and do not worry about what the Public is doing. It will only cost you in the long run.
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Some good stuff in here guys. Just a couple of points. Parlay wagers are sucker wagers. You do not get nearly the true odds. Parlay bets make up a huge part of a books overall profit. Teasers are worse.
Nest, never believe what the books try to sell you as far as what the public is playing, because they are trying to mislead you. What the will not tell you is the percentage of the money being wagered, and if they do, be very suspicious because you are being played. No book will ever give out that information. My average size wager is rather large. If I bet 1 large on a game, and take team A, and 9 other people in here bet $100.00 and take team B, the books may tell you that the public is on Team B, but the money is actually on team A. Too many people try to play against Joe Pub, and that sets them up for a very easy bait and switch, by the wiseguys. Play your own wagers, and do not worry about what the Public is doing. It will only cost you in the long run.
Thanks for the response. It never is money that I can't afford to lose. I just am going to take a new approach this year. I am pretty good in picking games I just play too many games and do parlays. I just want to deposit money into my account one time and withdraw at the end of the year. My goal is 15,000. Do you have any book preferences.
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Thanks for the response. It never is money that I can't afford to lose. I just am going to take a new approach this year. I am pretty good in picking games I just play too many games and do parlays. I just want to deposit money into my account one time and withdraw at the end of the year. My goal is 15,000. Do you have any book preferences.
Just wandering how much do you suggest to have in the bank (account). I know it depends on how much you play. Just wanted some opinions. I think I will save more money to just wait for football instead of betting baseball because I am bored.
I think you should have atleast a $500 bankroll to start with , but it really doesnt matter
And Yes I would stop betting Baseball .
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Quote Originally Posted by jcgrox22:
Just wandering how much do you suggest to have in the bank (account). I know it depends on how much you play. Just wanted some opinions. I think I will save more money to just wait for football instead of betting baseball because I am bored.
I think you should have atleast a $500 bankroll to start with , but it really doesnt matter
$500-$1000 to start with.......Like I mentioned before, I'm torn between straight bets/parlays.....It seems easy to throw down $100 on a 4-teamer and end the night with an easy +$1000 but once the 4th game loses, you're devestated for the entire night. While parlays are the easiest way to win big money fast, it's also the quickest way to lose your bankroll for the entire year.
As for straight bets, well, I've never been a big fan of them....but I might try to go in that direction this year.
C'mon fellas, parlays or straight bets?
Also, is it september yet?!
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$500-$1000 to start with.......Like I mentioned before, I'm torn between straight bets/parlays.....It seems easy to throw down $100 on a 4-teamer and end the night with an easy +$1000 but once the 4th game loses, you're devestated for the entire night. While parlays are the easiest way to win big money fast, it's also the quickest way to lose your bankroll for the entire year.
As for straight bets, well, I've never been a big fan of them....but I might try to go in that direction this year.
i'd say $500 is probably the minimum you need to do some damage... $2000 is a very nice starting bankroll...
betting %5 unit amounts... only betting 1 unit on every game, with no more than 1 or 2 games a week as 2 unit bets... roll with that all year, betting maybe 4-8 games a week, and you got a pretty well-designed formula...
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i'd say $500 is probably the minimum you need to do some damage... $2000 is a very nice starting bankroll...
betting %5 unit amounts... only betting 1 unit on every game, with no more than 1 or 2 games a week as 2 unit bets... roll with that all year, betting maybe 4-8 games a week, and you got a pretty well-designed formula...
So you are saying it effects the line before it comes out but once the line is there when people say "70 percent of the public has USC" that doesn't really matter because the oddsmakers already expected it, right? They knew they could make the line three points higher and the public would still pound USC. Is that what you are saying? I just want to make sure I am understanding your point.
Thanks for the feedback Chef. It's much appreciated.
You're correct as it was explained to me. How many times have you heard of a line being hammered on one side but the line never adjusts?
When I lived in Vegas I spent a lot of time in the book (My housemate watched desperate housewives and shit like that) Anyway, the amount of time people come in and take Phoenix Suns OVER was rediculous. The books know this trend and sets crazy high totals. Didn't matter if they played stingy defense San Antonio or swiss cheese "D" of Dallas Mavs squares take it every game.
I know this is NBA and were here for NCAA football but the point is books recognize betting patterns and adjust. Thats why there are sharps because they won't be suckered.
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Quote Originally Posted by TripleOption:
So you are saying it effects the line before it comes out but once the line is there when people say "70 percent of the public has USC" that doesn't really matter because the oddsmakers already expected it, right? They knew they could make the line three points higher and the public would still pound USC. Is that what you are saying? I just want to make sure I am understanding your point.
Thanks for the feedback Chef. It's much appreciated.
You're correct as it was explained to me. How many times have you heard of a line being hammered on one side but the line never adjusts?
When I lived in Vegas I spent a lot of time in the book (My housemate watched desperate housewives and shit like that) Anyway, the amount of time people come in and take Phoenix Suns OVER was rediculous. The books know this trend and sets crazy high totals. Didn't matter if they played stingy defense San Antonio or swiss cheese "D" of Dallas Mavs squares take it every game.
I know this is NBA and were here for NCAA football but the point is books recognize betting patterns and adjust. Thats why there are sharps because they won't be suckered.
Great thread Nostra. I am an amateur and don't have time or take the time to cap in great detail ( I bet modest) , but that didn't stop me from winning a little coin on CFB last year thanks to you and one other person who I tailed last year. Look forward to your analysis of week 1 lines in a few weeks.
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Great thread Nostra. I am an amateur and don't have time or take the time to cap in great detail ( I bet modest) , but that didn't stop me from winning a little coin on CFB last year thanks to you and one other person who I tailed last year. Look forward to your analysis of week 1 lines in a few weeks.
jcgrox - the greek and/or bookmaker are solid, sportsbookreview. com does a good job of covering the top 10
was thinking about another area - buying points - personally I'll consider buying 1/2 pt (never more) in 10-15 games per season (very low % out of 200-250) for a couple reasons
- need to get one push (vs loss) every 10 to be even, able to get push on 2-3 games per 15 to make worthwhile - although mathmatically never % play to buy a couple areas below make it more likely to gain some benefit from occasional 1/2 pt buy (some will never buy and can understand that view)
- mainly only if key number 3 or 7 (rarely 10 or 14) and if the game is low variance game - for example in my experience a 1/2 pt on a key number in a game like VT-Bama is more valuable than say Minn-Syr (less consistent teams, more question marks, etc) - for example if both were +6.5 dogs be more likely to possibly (not necessarily) to buy VT to +7 as opposed to Syracuse +7 - figuring more often than not VT-Bama will play close to line where with Syracuse who the hell knows - could win outright, could get beat by 30
- another factor considered is whether the 1/2 pt is difference between no play and play - example if based on handicapped outcome VT was a pass at 6.5 and play at 7 - more likely to give possibly buy 1/2 rather than pass on decent play, as opposed to if thought VT would win outright and would play anyway would just stick with 6.5
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jcgrox - the greek and/or bookmaker are solid, sportsbookreview. com does a good job of covering the top 10
was thinking about another area - buying points - personally I'll consider buying 1/2 pt (never more) in 10-15 games per season (very low % out of 200-250) for a couple reasons
- need to get one push (vs loss) every 10 to be even, able to get push on 2-3 games per 15 to make worthwhile - although mathmatically never % play to buy a couple areas below make it more likely to gain some benefit from occasional 1/2 pt buy (some will never buy and can understand that view)
- mainly only if key number 3 or 7 (rarely 10 or 14) and if the game is low variance game - for example in my experience a 1/2 pt on a key number in a game like VT-Bama is more valuable than say Minn-Syr (less consistent teams, more question marks, etc) - for example if both were +6.5 dogs be more likely to possibly (not necessarily) to buy VT to +7 as opposed to Syracuse +7 - figuring more often than not VT-Bama will play close to line where with Syracuse who the hell knows - could win outright, could get beat by 30
- another factor considered is whether the 1/2 pt is difference between no play and play - example if based on handicapped outcome VT was a pass at 6.5 and play at 7 - more likely to give possibly buy 1/2 rather than pass on decent play, as opposed to if thought VT would win outright and would play anyway would just stick with 6.5
$500-$1000 to start with.......Like I mentioned before, I'm torn between straight bets/parlays.....It seems easy to throw down $100 on a 4-teamer and end the night with an easy +$1000 but once the 4th game loses, you're devestated for the entire night. While parlays are the easiest way to win big money fast, it's also the quickest way to lose your bankroll for the entire year.
As for straight bets, well, I've never been a big fan of them....but I might try to go in that direction this year.
C'mon fellas, parlays or straight bets?
Also, is it september yet?!
can answer that one.....
1) decide if in this for > FUN....or to make CASH ?
* if for fun.......stop stressing over betting rules / all that crap....do what you like .....spend your hard earned $ ....any way you F'in please
2) BUT.......if need wagering to make cash.....bottom line ( think VERY FEW have understanding of this) .....like ME for one...if you follow rules........it is tough NOT to make $$$ (unless REALLY bad) ....in other words . > that cash is out there.......you can be lazy ass whiner that breaks most every rule and wonders ...."Why can't i make $ ? ".....OR....run the damn thing like a business and YOU WILL make $$ !!
* reason why you will see VERY few experienced bettors play teasers / parlays.......in long run it's a waste of money and can kill a good season......can hit 60% ++ and lose your ass
* if must ....I have done in the past....have TOTALLY separate account (with book with more favorable parlays /teasers odds...)
start with small amount.....when this amount is gone ......stop.....no more deposits
'07 i started with $ 2,000 at greek........put $100 at 5 Dimes..... to play around with
greek > all straight bets ....occasional NFL teaser..+...early season teaser maybe in CFB....lost $1200 .> man i sucked that year
5 Dimes....built up with money line parlays......bounce back sweetheart teasers.......finished with $1650......> saved my ass.....and made BAD season fun......(15-2 teaser run in NFL preseason > highly recommended ) ....last year built 80% or so of bankroll in preseason
* hope to get wacky teasers/parlays out of my system one day.....but (carefully) done can make you $......avoid in college...nfl works better .......understand some books scared to death of sharps that focus on 6 pt teasers (NFL) to hit right number ....>.crossing 3, 7 and 10 ....
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by cherokee10:
$500-$1000 to start with.......Like I mentioned before, I'm torn between straight bets/parlays.....It seems easy to throw down $100 on a 4-teamer and end the night with an easy +$1000 but once the 4th game loses, you're devestated for the entire night. While parlays are the easiest way to win big money fast, it's also the quickest way to lose your bankroll for the entire year.
As for straight bets, well, I've never been a big fan of them....but I might try to go in that direction this year.
C'mon fellas, parlays or straight bets?
Also, is it september yet?!
can answer that one.....
1) decide if in this for > FUN....or to make CASH ?
* if for fun.......stop stressing over betting rules / all that crap....do what you like .....spend your hard earned $ ....any way you F'in please
2) BUT.......if need wagering to make cash.....bottom line ( think VERY FEW have understanding of this) .....like ME for one...if you follow rules........it is tough NOT to make $$$ (unless REALLY bad) ....in other words . > that cash is out there.......you can be lazy ass whiner that breaks most every rule and wonders ...."Why can't i make $ ? ".....OR....run the damn thing like a business and YOU WILL make $$ !!
* reason why you will see VERY few experienced bettors play teasers / parlays.......in long run it's a waste of money and can kill a good season......can hit 60% ++ and lose your ass
* if must ....I have done in the past....have TOTALLY separate account (with book with more favorable parlays /teasers odds...)
start with small amount.....when this amount is gone ......stop.....no more deposits
'07 i started with $ 2,000 at greek........put $100 at 5 Dimes..... to play around with
greek > all straight bets ....occasional NFL teaser..+...early season teaser maybe in CFB....lost $1200 .> man i sucked that year
5 Dimes....built up with money line parlays......bounce back sweetheart teasers.......finished with $1650......> saved my ass.....and made BAD season fun......(15-2 teaser run in NFL preseason > highly recommended ) ....last year built 80% or so of bankroll in preseason
* hope to get wacky teasers/parlays out of my system one day.....but (carefully) done can make you $......avoid in college...nfl works better .......understand some books scared to death of sharps that focus on 6 pt teasers (NFL) to hit right number ....>.crossing 3, 7 and 10 ....
Thanks for all of the input. I can win money if i would just do strait bets but I love parlays. I currently use bookmaker as well as betphoenix. Betphoenix has real good bonuses but bookmaker is better. I will probably start out with 500-1000 in the bank. I am thinking about using betphoenix becuase I can get a very good bonus although with a high rollover. I am not concerned with this because i will meet the roll over throughout the year. Do you know of any bonuses that bookmaker offers for football season.
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Thanks for all of the input. I can win money if i would just do strait bets but I love parlays. I currently use bookmaker as well as betphoenix. Betphoenix has real good bonuses but bookmaker is better. I will probably start out with 500-1000 in the bank. I am thinking about using betphoenix becuase I can get a very good bonus although with a high rollover. I am not concerned with this because i will meet the roll over throughout the year. Do you know of any bonuses that bookmaker offers for football season.
bookie - agree teasers no good especially college - too much variance...maybe couple games a year set up if low variance team or correlated with total small degenerate special- if must play teasers then agree NFL better if pick two best games each week and cross key numbers
jcg - believe BM has early bird Fridays for 20% free play (worth about half as much as cash bonus), might check with them on live chat
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bookie - agree teasers no good especially college - too much variance...maybe couple games a year set up if low variance team or correlated with total small degenerate special- if must play teasers then agree NFL better if pick two best games each week and cross key numbers
jcg - believe BM has early bird Fridays for 20% free play (worth about half as much as cash bonus), might check with them on live chat
3 years ago in Vegas a ticket writer explained to me how no matter what the number is or who the opponet was the public was going to back USC
1 USC is a powerhouse
2 Vegas is loaded with USC fans coming from LA
3 The media has hyped USC in recent times
Therefore, the linesmaker knows he can inflate the line 4-7 points and still get heavy action on the Trojans. I think the public teams are USC, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas. Ohio St, IMO, is a team of intrest because it seems every year a high % call the buckeyes over rated and perfer to fade them. Iam uncertain if they could still be viewed as a public team.
Same concept holds true in NCAA basketball. Joe public is always on North Carolina no matter what and IMO many squares lay money on Duke because of the name recognition.
Although USC is 26-11 ATS under Pete Carroll as favorites of less than 14 points. The man knows how to prepare his team against formidable opponents.
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Quote Originally Posted by chef702:
3 years ago in Vegas a ticket writer explained to me how no matter what the number is or who the opponet was the public was going to back USC
1 USC is a powerhouse
2 Vegas is loaded with USC fans coming from LA
3 The media has hyped USC in recent times
Therefore, the linesmaker knows he can inflate the line 4-7 points and still get heavy action on the Trojans. I think the public teams are USC, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas. Ohio St, IMO, is a team of intrest because it seems every year a high % call the buckeyes over rated and perfer to fade them. Iam uncertain if they could still be viewed as a public team.
Same concept holds true in NCAA basketball. Joe public is always on North Carolina no matter what and IMO many squares lay money on Duke because of the name recognition.
Although USC is 26-11 ATS under Pete Carroll as favorites of less than 14 points. The man knows how to prepare his team against formidable opponents.
i know the expected value of a parlay play favors the book. it goes up unfavorably with every additional game picked.
however, i have had success with one 2 team parlay per week. i don't mess around with 5 or 6 games. I pick the best two plays on the board. It pays 2.6 to 1 at the greek. I do my research. I have every college football rag on the planet. I have read every page. I review the team pages at scout.com and rivals.com. i read espn, cbs, and cfn. I also look at college team pages for quotes from players and coaches that might hint and motivation for that week. I only bet on college football because that is what I know. there is too much parity in the NFL. even bad teams like the lions can make it close on any given week.
i like favorites. specifically, i like teams with an explosive offense, solid defense and motivation to win big. my challenge in recent years is staying too loyal to favorites after week 7 (ie november "the month of the dogs"). that is one thing i am going to work on this year - keep an open mind as to when one or both of the best two plays on the board is a dog, and have the guts to take the dog. i know some of you guys are pros in evaluating if a spread is inflated. Again, I will work on this season.
I never bet more than 5% of my roll in any given week. granted, with my 2 team parlay play, that is probably a higher risk than most would take, but since i do my homework, i figure it is worth the risk.
Also, in my opinion, 3+ team parlays are for chumps. believe me, i have tried 3 team parlays and it is very difficult. even if you do your homework and get 2 right, there is always that mixed extra point, that long garbage time TD pass given up by a the 4th team of a DD favorite which will enable a back door cover. I know some of you (Nos, doubleup4life etc) will criticize me for playing two team college parlays, but i guess i just like the challenge and the analytics of getting it right v. the payoff.
I will appreciate any takes on my strategy.
I wish you all success this season. It can't get here soon enough...
LonghornHoosier
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i know the expected value of a parlay play favors the book. it goes up unfavorably with every additional game picked.
however, i have had success with one 2 team parlay per week. i don't mess around with 5 or 6 games. I pick the best two plays on the board. It pays 2.6 to 1 at the greek. I do my research. I have every college football rag on the planet. I have read every page. I review the team pages at scout.com and rivals.com. i read espn, cbs, and cfn. I also look at college team pages for quotes from players and coaches that might hint and motivation for that week. I only bet on college football because that is what I know. there is too much parity in the NFL. even bad teams like the lions can make it close on any given week.
i like favorites. specifically, i like teams with an explosive offense, solid defense and motivation to win big. my challenge in recent years is staying too loyal to favorites after week 7 (ie november "the month of the dogs"). that is one thing i am going to work on this year - keep an open mind as to when one or both of the best two plays on the board is a dog, and have the guts to take the dog. i know some of you guys are pros in evaluating if a spread is inflated. Again, I will work on this season.
I never bet more than 5% of my roll in any given week. granted, with my 2 team parlay play, that is probably a higher risk than most would take, but since i do my homework, i figure it is worth the risk.
Also, in my opinion, 3+ team parlays are for chumps. believe me, i have tried 3 team parlays and it is very difficult. even if you do your homework and get 2 right, there is always that mixed extra point, that long garbage time TD pass given up by a the 4th team of a DD favorite which will enable a back door cover. I know some of you (Nos, doubleup4life etc) will criticize me for playing two team college parlays, but i guess i just like the challenge and the analytics of getting it right v. the payoff.
I will appreciate any takes on my strategy.
I wish you all success this season. It can't get here soon enough...
Also, I agree with other posters who say one should close their eyes and pick a perceived final score (personal power rating) based on all the information analyzed and synthesized on the games wagered on. In my opinion, these Vegas so called professional cappers are no better than the average schmo who does his homework.
I compare wagering on college football to purchasing naked options on stocks. Granted, you can do stradles and other exotics on options to hedge a bet, but the bottom line is, it is a wager with a high degree of risk with the potential for a significant gain.
LonghornHoosier
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Also, I agree with other posters who say one should close their eyes and pick a perceived final score (personal power rating) based on all the information analyzed and synthesized on the games wagered on. In my opinion, these Vegas so called professional cappers are no better than the average schmo who does his homework.
I compare wagering on college football to purchasing naked options on stocks. Granted, you can do stradles and other exotics on options to hedge a bet, but the bottom line is, it is a wager with a high degree of risk with the potential for a significant gain.
nc1capper - use a similar formula at times myself, two straight wagers and parlay the same two for much smaller amount
longhorn - nah I would not criticize two team parlays since I do it myself to supplement much larger straight wagers, maybe it was someone else, agree with most of other points other than how many games played which is matter of whatever works for each person, I'll bet any side, total or team total where there is a worthwhile edge maybe 7-12 games and usually isolate 2-3 for large amounts, pretty successful on large recent years (24-7, 29-18) although means nothing going into each new year other than having enough reserve not to worry about cold run, whatever number of games you personally play to maximize profits is good, whether going 2-0 or 13-10 works out the same units
formula on 2 team parlay is pretty straight forward math - if you're picking a decent percentage you will make money supplementing straight plays with small parlays - example if go 11-9 (55%) and using 30 to win 78, over 20 games it will break down on average - 2-0 (+78), 0-2 (-30), 1-1 (-30), 1-1 (-30), 2-0 (+78), 1-1 (-30), 1-1 (-30), 0-2 (-30), 1-1 (-30), 2-0 (+78) = 11-9 (+24) - breakeven point probably around 53%-53.5% - if one cannot pick that percentage long term then probably 2 team parlays are not for them and will chew up bankroll
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nc1capper - use a similar formula at times myself, two straight wagers and parlay the same two for much smaller amount
longhorn - nah I would not criticize two team parlays since I do it myself to supplement much larger straight wagers, maybe it was someone else, agree with most of other points other than how many games played which is matter of whatever works for each person, I'll bet any side, total or team total where there is a worthwhile edge maybe 7-12 games and usually isolate 2-3 for large amounts, pretty successful on large recent years (24-7, 29-18) although means nothing going into each new year other than having enough reserve not to worry about cold run, whatever number of games you personally play to maximize profits is good, whether going 2-0 or 13-10 works out the same units
formula on 2 team parlay is pretty straight forward math - if you're picking a decent percentage you will make money supplementing straight plays with small parlays - example if go 11-9 (55%) and using 30 to win 78, over 20 games it will break down on average - 2-0 (+78), 0-2 (-30), 1-1 (-30), 1-1 (-30), 2-0 (+78), 1-1 (-30), 1-1 (-30), 0-2 (-30), 1-1 (-30), 2-0 (+78) = 11-9 (+24) - breakeven point probably around 53%-53.5% - if one cannot pick that percentage long term then probably 2 team parlays are not for them and will chew up bankroll
Also, I agree with other posters who say one should close their eyes and pick a perceived final score (personal power rating) based on all the information analyzed and synthesized on the games wagered on. In my opinion, these Vegas so called professional cappers are no better than the average schmo who does his homework.
I compare wagering on college football to purchasing naked options on stocks. Granted, you can do stradles and other exotics on options to hedge a bet, but the bottom line is, it is a wager with a high degree of risk with the potential for a significant gain.
I agree with your assessment of the alleged "touts". If you research their records over 5 and 10 year periods, you will see that they all hover around the 50% mark, plus or minus 5%. This is where a large amount of the public also falls. What you must remember is that you have to hit at a 53% clip to basically break even.
As far as exotics, such as parlays, teasers, reverses, if wagers, and prop wagers are concerned, it is simply a matter of risk vs reward. You are risking your money to receive a reward much less than the true odds reward. Now obviously if you know the results ahead of time, you can make a fortune, but no one knows that. No matter how good you may think you are, you have to look at the fact that you probably are not better than a computer at the LVSC. You are going to fall into that 45-55% winrange that most gamblers fall into. You cannot afford to give the books a bigger edge than you already are, and by playing the above mentioned wagers, that is exactly what you are doing. It is tough enough to crack that nearly 3% that you are giving the book every time you make a wager, but play the exotics,and you are giving them a lot more. Depending on how many you play, you may be giving the book an extra 3-10%, making winning over the long run nearly impossible.
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
Also, I agree with other posters who say one should close their eyes and pick a perceived final score (personal power rating) based on all the information analyzed and synthesized on the games wagered on. In my opinion, these Vegas so called professional cappers are no better than the average schmo who does his homework.
I compare wagering on college football to purchasing naked options on stocks. Granted, you can do stradles and other exotics on options to hedge a bet, but the bottom line is, it is a wager with a high degree of risk with the potential for a significant gain.
I agree with your assessment of the alleged "touts". If you research their records over 5 and 10 year periods, you will see that they all hover around the 50% mark, plus or minus 5%. This is where a large amount of the public also falls. What you must remember is that you have to hit at a 53% clip to basically break even.
As far as exotics, such as parlays, teasers, reverses, if wagers, and prop wagers are concerned, it is simply a matter of risk vs reward. You are risking your money to receive a reward much less than the true odds reward. Now obviously if you know the results ahead of time, you can make a fortune, but no one knows that. No matter how good you may think you are, you have to look at the fact that you probably are not better than a computer at the LVSC. You are going to fall into that 45-55% winrange that most gamblers fall into. You cannot afford to give the books a bigger edge than you already are, and by playing the above mentioned wagers, that is exactly what you are doing. It is tough enough to crack that nearly 3% that you are giving the book every time you make a wager, but play the exotics,and you are giving them a lot more. Depending on how many you play, you may be giving the book an extra 3-10%, making winning over the long run nearly impossible.
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- if must play teasers then agree NFL better if pick two best games each week and cross key numbers
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