Extensive Alabama @ Penn State Write-up

This is a rematch between two very fundamentally sound teams with similar styles.  Alabama came out on top 24-3 last season at Bryant-Denny Stadium based largely on the strength of a dominating defensive performance which forced Penn State into 3 interceptions and 1 fumble.  That was only the second game of the season for a defense that had to replaced 10 out of their 11 starters from the 2009 national championship defense.

Heat was also a factor in last season’s game.  When my niece, who attends Penn State, boarded the plane at State College, it was 35 degrees.  When she stepped outside of the Atlanta airport, it was almost 100 degrees.  Because I watched that game with my niece from the stands at Bryant-Denny Stadium, I can personally attest to how hot it was that day.  That heat definitely had an effect on the Penn State players and fans.

Penn State is the more experienced team with 18 of their 22 starters being juniors or seniors.  Both teams enter this season’s matchup with an unsettled QB situation, and both teams are coming off of week 1 blowouts where their respective offensive lines did not played well.

Joe Paterno announced in his weekly press conference that a bunch of previously-suspended players will return for this weekend's game against Alabama.  The players mentioned by Paterno were not scrubs either.  RB Stephfon Green is Penn State’s leading rusher.  CB Derrick Thomas has showed a lot of promise when given the opportunity to play, and starting punter and kickoff specialist Anthony Fera will help solidify Penn State’s kicking game.

Alabama starting WR Darius Hanks will not be available because the NCAA ruled him ineligible for the first two games of the season.  His loss will be mitigated by the long-awaited arrival of Duron Carter who is the son of future Hall of Fame WR Cris Carter.  He is the big physical possession receiver Alabama desperately needs in the wake of Julio Jones’ departure to the NFL.

Penn State runs a hybrid offense they have dubbed "The Spread HD" which incorporates elements of the spread in the running game, and more of a pro style passing attack.  Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, their offense has struggled live up to its HD moniker since the departure of QB Daryll Clark, and has consistently ranked among the worst in the Big 10.

While they dominated Indiana State, they only amassed 114 yards in the passing game, and did almost all of their damage on the ground.  As I said, Penn State is having a difficult time deciding which quarterback to play so they’ve been playing two.  QB Rob Bolden (Who started against Bama last year and has the most upside IMO) got the start last week and went 6-12 for only 37 yards.  Last year he struggled when Alabama’s front 7 applied pressure.  Mike McGloin also played against Indiana State and went 6-8 for 77 yards.  Their best receiver is senior Derek Moye.

Penn State will give Alabama’s defense heavy doses of Silas Redd and Brandon Beachum out of the backfield.  Redd has game-breaking ability, and Beachum is a beast.  It should be interesting to see how they perform in their first true test of the season.  Redd hurt Alabama a few times last season as a change of pace back to Evan Royster.   Redd carried the ball 12 times against Indiana State for 104 yards and two touchdowns.

Penn State’s line is a departure from the type of o-lines we’re accustomed to seeing from them.  They lack the bruising road graders of yesteryear and excel more in the passing game.  I think Alabama’s front 7 should be able to control the point of attack, and force Peen State’s QBs to beat them down the field.

Penn State’s kick returner Chaz Powell got the Nittany Lions’ 2011 season off to a fast start with a 95 yard touchdown return on the opening kickoff.  He is a threat every time he touches the ball.

Joe Paterno’s coaching staff has a lot of confidence in their very experienced defense that boasts 4 seniors in the secondary.  Of course Linebacker U’s defense will also be stout in the middle led by their best defensive player Michael Mauti.  Their scheme is multiple with some 3-4 and some 4-3.  What is a little different is they are one of the few defenses that still runs a cover 3 (Three deep and four underneath) as their base coverage.  In the age of the cover 2 and Tampa 2, that is unusual.  Corner D'Anton Lynn is their best cover guy and both safeties are strong.  Their best Defensive lineman is probably DT Devon Still although DE Jack Crawford is no slouch either.  To counter Alabama’s powerful offensive line and sturdy RBs, I expect to see Penn State periodically sneak an 8th man in the box.  Like Alabama, Penn State’s defensive strategy will be to first stuff the run, and to force Alabama’s green QBs into difficult down and distance situations in a hostile environment.

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Last week Alabama’s dynamic QB duo of AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims combined for 4 interceptions against the Golden Flashes of Kent State. One led to Kent State’s only TD – a 3-yard drive in 2 plays. Typically Alabama is a very fundamentally sound team that doesn’t beat themselves with turnovers and penalties, so for them to lose the turnover battle 5-1 to the Golden Flashes is surprising. Alabama was doing a lot of experimenting in that game, including having McCarron and Sims throw down the deep middle of the field much more than usual. Things will be simplified a bit for this game, and you will see Alabama OC Jim McElwain implement safer throws to outside part of the field, and dump-offs to RBs sneaking out of the backfield. Despite the hostile environment, I wouldn’t bet on a repeat of Alabama’s 5 turnovers in week 1.

Another factor worth mentioning is that last season’s matchup at Bryant-Denny Stadium was officiated by a Big 10 crew. That means this season’s matchup in Beaver Stadium will be officiated by a SEC crew.

I think we all know that Alabama is quite a bit more talented than Penn State which is reflected in Alabama being 10-point road chalk at Beaver Stadium. The question is which side gets the money?

My opinion of the matchup between Penn State’s offense (and Michigan State’s offense in the last season’s Capital One Bowl) and Alabama’s defense remains unchanged. Penn State’s meek offense won’t scare many people, and their style of offense plays right into the strength of Alabama’s huge physical defense. For that reason my opinion, like last season, is that Penn State will likely not score more than 7 points in this game.

Offensively Alabama is loaded with talent at all positions. The keys for Alabama offensively will be to, first and foremost, protect the ball. Secondly they need to see improvement in their o-line play. Their o-line needs to be more assignment sound, and not let their QBs get killed by untouched blitzing LBers.

As of this writing, weather and field conditions are not expected to be factors. It is suppose to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 70s. If something changes and they are forced to play on a very muddy field, I think that would be a big equalizing factor for Penn State. As of now, I’m capping the game based on the current weather forecast.

As long as Alabama doesn’t beat themselves, they should be able to power their way into the 20+-point range again. If they can do that, and I think they can, they should win and cover the number.

Penn State doesn’t have the offense to win this game, but they do have the defense to keep it within the number. To bet Penn State here, you have to believe that either Alabama will self-destruct in a hostile environment by making lots of mistakes (ie. turnovers), or believe in the ability of the Nittany Lions' defense to hold Alabama to 17 points or less, or both. Although both are possible, I don't think either is very likely. And while I’m never opposed to fading Alabama when I think the circumstances are warranted, I can’t back a Penn State team that, barring an unforeseen event, will likely not find the end zone.

I think we’ll see a final score very similar to what we saw last season. I’ll give Penn State an extra 3 points for homefield advantage and call it 24-6 Alabama. Alabama will not be a strong play for me. Accordingly, I will make a standard 1-unit play on Alabama -9.5 buying the hook.

Best of luck to all Bama backers!!!

May the rest of you (like Boom ) be infested with the fleas of a thousand camels for turning to the dark side!!!

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:





Sweet !!! Im made the Bama / Penn S.T write up


Seriously tho, When I look at this game I see a few things. Bama threw 4 interceptions by two different QB's last week vs Kent S.T. So what does that tell me? You have a QB issue. Now can they still beat Penn S.T? Of course they can. There chances of beating Penn S.T are pretty good IMO. But I do think you cant ignore the facts about this game either. Alabama doesn't have a QB, now you say Penn S.T doesn't either and you are correct....but ONE huge difference tho. Penn S.T is at home and Alabama will be on the road playing with two totally inexperienced QB's in a very hostile environment. It does matter too.... no matter what anyone says, it does. It matters when you go on the road in college football with a inexperienced QB. Penn S.T will compete in this game. I think Bama's depth will be too much when you play all four quarters, but the margin of victory will be small. A matte of fact, I think a good bet would be to find a book to let you play Penn S.T 1st quarter and 1st half. Either way, I see Bama 20 Penn S.T 17

I agree that 4 ints is pretty bad against Kent St and the O-line will really have to step it up in this game.  At the same time 2 of those ints tipped off of the recievers fingers so not entirely the QB's fault.  Not trying to make excuses for them becasue in my opinion 2 int's is not acceptable against Kent St

Jimmy;

Great writeup, I think you hit this right on the head.

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:





Sweet !!! Im made the Bama / Penn S.T write up


Seriously tho, When I look at this game I see a few things. Bama threw 4 interceptions by two different QB's last week vs Kent S.T. So what does that tell me? You have a QB issue. Now can they still beat Penn S.T? Of course they can. There chances of beating Penn S.T are pretty good IMO. But I do think you cant ignore the facts about this game either. Alabama doesn't have a QB, now you say Penn S.T doesn't either and you are correct....but ONE huge difference tho. Penn S.T is at home and Alabama will be on the road playing with two totally inexperienced QB's in a very hostile environment. It does matter too.... no matter what anyone says, it does. It matters when you go on the road in college football with a inexperienced QB. Penn S.T will compete in this game. I think Bama's depth will be too much when you play all four quarters, but the margin of victory will be small. A matte of fact, I think a good bet would be to find a book to let you play Penn S.T 1st quarter and 1st half. Either way, I see Bama 20 Penn S.T 17

There is no question that playing in front of 107,000 rabid Penn State fans at Happy Valley will have all the feel and pressure of a tough SEC road game.  If it weren't so, this would be a huge play for me.

Despite the tough road environment (which most of the Bama players are already acclimated to), there is not a shred of doubt in my mind that Bama wins this game.  The only question is whether they will cover the 9.5 or 10-point spread?  That is a much taller task particularly given, as you point out, Bama's inexperience at the QB position.  While I'm not confident enough to make a large wager that Bama will cover the 10, I am confident enough in it to I consider it one of my 10 best plays of the week.

If I understand you correctly, you are asserting that Alabama doesn't have a competent QB because a) they played 2 QBs in a blowout win over Kent State, and b) because each threw 2 interceptions against Kent State.  If that's the case, I would say your assertion is way off base, if not laughable.

First let's look at the interceptions themselves.  Each QB threw two.  One of McCarron's interceptions was a bad pass when he overthrew his receiver down the deep middle part of the field.  I need to take a second to make a couple of points here.

First of all, this is a pass that Alabama NEVER threw when McElroy was the QB because he wasn't good enough to do it on a consistent basis, and secondly, neither McCarron or Sims will be asked to make this type of high risk/high reward throw against Penn State.  They only did it because they were grading their QBs, and because they were playing Kent State.

McCarron's second intereception was a perfect throw down the deep middle, but because of blatant pass interference by the defender which prevented the receiver from bringing his right hand up to secure the pass, the ball ricocheted off of his left hand and was intercepted.  No interference was called.

Phillip Sim's first intereception was due to the fact that Bama's backup true freshman LT missed a blocking assignment which gave a blitzing linebacker a free blindside shot at Sims.  The LBer blindsided Sims just as he released the ball which caused the interception.

Sim's second interception was because he threw late to his receiver running a 5-yard stop route which allowed the Kent State defender time to jump the route, intercept the pass, and return the ball to the Bama 3-yard line.

I have seen every Bama QB for the last 9 years multiple times in practice, and both AJ McCarron and Philip Sims are a quantum leap improvement over all of them.  I can't tell you the last time Alabama had one, much less two QBs as good as Sims and McCarron.  Which ever one ends up starting will be the best QB in the SEC before the end of the season.  They are that good.

Secondly, if you are banking on the QBs throwing another 4 interceptions, you are going to be very disappointed.  They might throw 1, but I highly doubt you'll see any more than that.  That is so because OC Jim McElwain will dumb the throws down to McElroy's level, which is to say short, safe throws.  So basically what we'll see is the same safe McElroy-type offense we've become accustomed to seeing from Alabama.  You won't see deep middle throws 25 yards downfield such as the ones that were intercepted in the Kent State game.

Alabama won the turnover margin last season 4-1, and I think we'll see something similar again this season.  In fact I'm so confident that Alabama will win the turnover battle in this game that I'm willing to make a side bet with anyone on it.

Lastly, if Penn State scores 17 points as you predict, then I can almost guarantee you they will cover the spread.  Unfortunately for Penn State backers they have virtually no prayer of scoring that many points.  For Penn State to cover this game, the score will look more like 13-10 or 17-10m, and I don't think they'll even score that many.  Similar to what we saw last season, I really don't think Penn State will find the end zone once much less twice.

Betting on Penn State +10 at home facing an opponent with two green QBs is not a bad a bet.  I just don't think it's a winner.

Actually I think it's the other way around.  Alabama went balls to the walls with their play calling against Kent State.  Most of the passes where downfield throws.  That is a huge departure from Greg McElroy who sometimes went two or three games in a row without ever throwing a ball more than 10 yards beyond the LOS.

For the Penn State game, OC Jim McElwain will reel the play calling back in to a conservative McElroy-style offense.  Saban knows that as long as they don't make mistakes, Penn State can't beat him.

Great write up...

Roll-Tide

I agree that Penn State will be well prepared for this game, and probably more so than last season.  But the same can be said of Alabama.

As I said in my initial write-up, last season's game was only the defense's second game playing together after having to replace 10 of their 11 starters from the 2009 team.  At that time, the mainstream media, and most posters on Covers were saying how bad Bama's defense was going to be because they were replacing almost the entire defense from the season before.

On top of having to replace 10 of their 11 defensive starters, they also had to replace two of their replacements for the Penn State game including their best defensive player - the #3 overall pick in the NFL draft Marcel Dareus.  Dareus was suspended for the game for his Miami trip.

Also out for the game was starting CB Dequan Menzie with an achilles injury, and starting RB Mark Ingram was out with a knee injury.  Bama's second and third best defensive players (Courtney Upshaw and Donte Hightower) both played but were also hobbled with injuries.  With the exception of Dareus, this year Bama will have everyone back 100% healthy with one more year of experience.  That will make a significant difference.

Scoring isn't something Penn State will be doing a lot of on Saturday.