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Extensive Alabama @ Penn State Write-up

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Posted: #26

Like Bama and the under.  Roll Tide!

 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:

  Great stuff as usual, Jimmy just think that once again you're either over rating what Bama will do on both sides of the ball, or not giving Penn St enough credit, when you come up with a score like 24 - 6.  I'm confident enough that they'll score at least 17, that I'm backing the home dogs + 10 1/2.  Don't think you're giving the Penn St experienced defense enough credit here, and forgetting, it's football, away in a hostile environment, against a well enough coached defense in Penn St that should be able to get enough "offense out of turnovers" to score more than you predict. If anything, I've got the T.O. edge in the home teams favor.  Either way, BOL in the season ahead, different opinions is what makes these games so interesting.

I pretty much addressed all the factors you mention, and I totally get backing the home team here.  As I said, if Penn State can score 17 points I have no doubt that'll be good enough to cover.  So if you think they'll score that many, by all means back the Nittany Lions.  Heck, if I thought they could score 17 points I would be on them as well.  I just think the chances of them doing that are remote.  In fact I think it's more likely that Alabama's defense will pitch a shutout than surrender 17 points.  Bama's raw and depleted defense came very close to pulling it off last season.

I don't think Penn State will generate much if any offense off of turnovers because, for the reasons I previously stated, I don't think Alabama will turn the ball over much.  They might turn it once, but probably not more than that.  Personally, I think Alabama will win the battle of turnover margin which means I think Alabama is more likely to generate offense off of turnovers than Penn State.

Offensively I think a prediction of Alabama scoring 24 points is very reasonable based on my belief that a) I think Alabama will win the battle of turnover margin, and b) that Penn State's offense will have very little success moving the ball against Alabama's defense.  If they can't move the ball, that means lots of punts, and lots of punts means lots of possessions for Alabama's offense, and the more Alabama possesses the ball, the more chances they have to pound on and wear down Penn State's defense.  So yes, I think Alabama generates at least 24 points.  For Penn State to have any chance to cover this game, I think they'll need to hold Alabama under 20 points.

The way I see this year's game is pretty much how I saw it last season when I made this a "Max Bet" game.  My opinion really hasn't changed much except I'm less confident this season because Alabama will be playing in a very tough road environment.  Nonetheless, I think the game will play out very much like it did last season except I think Bama's defense will be even more dominant this year.

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by BigUnit:

Like Bama and the under.  Roll Tide!

Under is the only side of the total I would play.

 
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Posted: #29
Jimmy 

No play for me, but I did read someplace PSU guys were saying how the young guys were intimidated LY and kind of in awe.. think they will be little more prepared this time around

Either way GL 
 
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Posted: #30

Great writeup, some good counter points. This is what Covers is supposed to be.

jimmydafreak-Boom_Boom

 
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Posted: #31
i see a 20-13 shitfest jimmy   gl bud
 
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Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

Jimmy 

No play for me, but I did read someplace PSU guys were saying how the young guys were intimidated LY and kind of in awe.. think they will be little more prepared this time around

Either way GL 

I agree that Penn State will be much more prepared this season than last, and that they'll be a lot more comfortable playing at home.  But, and I have made the point previously, so will Alabama's defense.

Last season Alabama's defense was very green from having to replace 10 out of 11 starters from the '09 team.  Furthermore, two of the replacements were out, including their best player Marcel Dareus.  And on top of all of that, Alabama's second and third best defensive players were hobbled by injury.  But despite playing with a very inexperienced, depleted and hobbled defense last season, Alabama came within a whisker of pitching a shutout.  This season Alabama's defense will be experienced and at full strength.

Last season Alabama's defense versus Penn State's offense was a mismatch.  Nothing has changed.  In fact, if anything, it is more of a mismatch this time around.  Expect Penn State's point production to be in the 0-7 range.

 BOL to you as well SNF!!!

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by zmas13:

Great writeup, some good counter points. This is what Covers is supposed to be.

jimmydafreak-Boom_Boom

Boom Boom and I usually fight it out to a draw.  But with Boise pounding Georgia in the opener, he's ahead on all the judge's scorecards so far this season.

 

 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by badlands:

i see a 20-13 shitfest jimmy   gl bud

Thanks BL!!!  Yeah, last season was a shitfest, and this should be an encore performance.

  BOL to you as well!!!

 
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Posted: #35

Good stuff Bro.

 

Roll Tide.

 
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Posted: #36
Boom Boom versus Jimmydafreak so far 
 
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Posted: #37
Great write-up jimmy. Think you've pretty much hit home all the key points. BOL to you.
 
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Posted: #38

Kaplan, Torreny3 good to see you guys!!!    BOL to both of you this week.

CBS Preview of the Alabama @ Penn State game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOFT5roqTWc

 

 
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Posted: #39

The Kent St. game was a scrimage. Lot's of experimenting in the O line. Unless there are major breakdowns in Bama's special teams, I can't see Penn St scoring over 10 points.

Bama 27 Penn St. 10

 

 

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by mydogmoe:

The Kent St. game was a scrimage. Lot's of experimenting in the O line. Unless there are major breakdowns in Bama's special teams, I can't see Penn St scoring over 10 points.

Bama 27 Penn St. 10

Absolutely correct.  Saban did the same thing last season in the San Jose State & Duke games.  These were glorified scrimmage games.

Unless Alabama gifts Penn State some easy points, I don't think they score more than 7 . . . 10 tops.  My final score prediction is 24-6 Alabama.

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

your break down of the game is exactly my thoughts and reason why i think id take the 10 pts but i have to pass on this gamecould be close to the number or could just be 9-6 end of the game. that being said i like the under

I agree that Penn State will be well prepared for this game, and probably more so than last season.  But the same can be said of Alabama.

As I said in my initial write-up, last season's game was only the defense's second game playing together after having to replace 10 of their 11 starters from the 2009 team.  At that time, the mainstream media, and most posters on Covers were saying how bad Bama's defense was going to be because they were replacing almost the entire defense from the season before.

On top of having to replace 10 of their 11 defensive starters, they also had to replace two of their replacements for the Penn State game including their best defensive player - the #3 overall pick in the NFL draft Marcel Dareus.  Dareus was suspended for the game for his Miami trip.

Also out for the game was starting CB Dequan Menzie with an achilles injury, and starting RB Mark Ingram was out with a knee injury.  Bama's second and third best defensive players (Courtney Upshaw and Donte Hightower) both played but were also hobbled with injuries.  With the exception of Dareus, this year Bama will have everyone back 100% healthy with one more year of experience.  That will make a significant difference.

Scoring isn't something Penn State will be doing a lot of on Saturday.

 

 
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Posted: #42

Awesome writeup

I am on PSU simply because of the points and hfa. Bama could easily shut them down and win by 20+, but I think this game is never more than a 14-17 point difference and the cover either way will come down to the 4th quarter.....

 

gl this weekend JDF

 
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Posted: #43
BAMA ROLLS.................
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Actually I think it's the other way around.  Alabama went balls to the walls with their play calling against Kent State.  Most of the passes where downfield throws.  That is a huge departure from Greg McElroy who sometimes went two or three games in a row without ever throwing a ball more than 10 yards beyond the LOS.

For the Penn State game, OC Jim McElwain will reel the play calling back in to a conservative McElroy-style offense.  Saban knows that as long as they don't make mistakes, Penn State can't beat him.

 

 Agreed, I can see your point. My take on the down field passes was he was wanting to see what his QB could do in a game. But I do definitely see your point. BOL with this play and the rest of your card tomorrow.

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Awesome writeup

I am on PSU simply because of the points and hfa. Bama could easily shut them down and win by 20+, but I think this game is never more than a 14-17 point difference and the cover either way will come down to the 4th quarter.....

gl this weekend JDF

I agree with your basic proposition Train.  Betting protocol says to take the points when you anticipate a low-scoring game which I think most cappers do here.  That is why I have repeatedly said that playing Penn State plus the points is not a bad play.  A high percentage of bets such as this will win.  In this particular case I don't think it's the right side because Penn State's offense is so bad, and Alabama's defense is so good.  I have no confidence Penn State can score in this game.

 

 
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Posted: #46

Good pep rally speach from the legend JoPa.  Said "let's beat the hell out of Alabama!!!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAcRAKbCedc&feature=player_embedded

 

 
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Posted: #47
Your Bama write ups set the standard for the industry bro.

I can only hope to be your wing man when I make a similar effort

best of luck tomorrow 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Good pep rally speach from the legend JoPa.  Said "let's beat the hell out of Alabama!!!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAcRAKbCedc&feature=player_embedded

 



INSPIRATIONAL 

WHAT AN HONOR IT WOULD BE TO PLAY FOR THAT MAN

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:



INSPIRATIONAL 

WHAT AN HONOR IT WOULD BE TO PLAY FOR THAT MAN

Yup.  Great stuff there!!!  The epitome of college football right there!!!

 

 
 
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Posted: #50
Not to nitpick or anything, but the weather report is inaccurate.  It was not 35 degrees in State College, and it was not 100 degrees in Tuscaloosa.  No doubt it was hotter in Tuscaloosa than in State College, but these kids were just coming out of the hot summer months so I highly doubt the weather played that much of a factor.  More than likely, it was the true freshman at QB for Penn State that was the single biggest factor in the game followed closely by Penn State's highly unusual lack of tackling ability.
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