BRIDGE PRE-SSN 2025

AAC CHAMPS

UTSA 8.5-1 (CZR)

Doubt CZR keeps this up with quite a few 6 and 6.5's out there's higher out there and would look sooner than later as I think this could fall into the 5's and maybe 4's as the season nears.. I don't hate it at 6 but 8 or 8.5 is a solid playable number for this team when I don't see a sure thing immovable force at the top of the conf once again this year .. Possible that Navy could be the next Army but they could also just still be Navy lol .. 

Lotta hype with the team going into the AAC in 2023 and nearly ran the table but fell to a tough Tulane team on the road in the season finale as a small fav but 5 turnovers later they're 7-1 and out of the champ game. Fast fwd to LY we had a good looking pre-ssn roster stout D, McCown was a decent enough QB and just proceeded to fall apart, didn't smoke Kennesaw, got REDRUM'D by TX State, 10 pt loss @ECU. Then the real slide lost @Rice by 2, rock bottom loss to tulsa blowing a 35-7 lead at home. teams quit usually quit at that pt but these guy stayed in and a pretty solid Memphis tm, streaky N.Texas, slammed Temple to secure a bowl and then played an incredibly hard fought game @Army in the finale losing 24-29. in conf + 1.5 yds/run, 60% to 54% pass comps, +96 yds/gm over opponents. Somehow 4-4. Maybe a 'get it right' year comin.

QB we like McCown with a full year under his belt .. comp rate 60% accurate 73% so room for WR's to help him this year .. really limits the bad plays 11% the fumbles, picks and penalties .. They have a talented backup from FCS Bama State whose a bit of a wildcard but could be trouble if McCown goes down .. 

RB - Robert Henry took over the spot last year and they add John Emery from LSU .. oft injured but #1RB outta HS 99 rating, last chance U time for him .. a few other exp bups and prospects hopefully makes this the unit that underperformed last year.

WR - Lose one of the starters but the best of the unit returns .. McCuin is solid and Amador looks like a major breakout dude this year .. could finally see De'corian Clark back .. DJ Allen was a 4 star player injured 6 games in ready to break out .. AJ Wilson was an FCS Dude a few more potential breakout prospects in a crowded unit 

TE - Lose multi-yr All-Con Oscar Cardenas but he split time with Houston Thomas who was way more productive in w 470 yds and the unit has 3 to like with Overmeyer another solid dude and Dishman who added another 450 yds from this position and got good blocking out of each of em .. 3 deep in a very key unit for this offense .. 

OL - Lost one starter but essentially have 6 returning who have been with the program at least 1 year .. 2 exp backups and 6 more prospects outside any true fr / walkons .. This was a unit that gets blamed for the poor run game we hope to see that turn around big this year .. 

Big picture this side of the ball has been on a slide since Stein left for Oregon .. in CUSA Traylor had OC's like Barry Lunny (ILL now) and Will Stein (Oregon) for the offensive bonanzas en route to those B2B CUSA champ years .. But its just not the same w out them even w most of the same players when they came to the AAC .. Coaches really matter .. We really need the OC to step it up now in his 3rd year of a pretty disappointing slide but I think its the best overall offensive units they've had and McCown is def ready for a nationally recognized breakout season.

^^ UTSA CONT'D

Defense under performed last year and some concerns as some of the big multi-year heavy hitters have moved on .. Each unit takes a hit but the thing about UTSA is they recruit pretty well and an attractive portal spot and tend to retain alot of their best players.. they lost 4 off the D to the portal but weren't picked apart .. Jeff Traylor also known for getting backups a heavy dose of reps, not just garbage time, so outside of LB the units still have 40 or 50% of their reps returning with multiple players ready to step up, some seeing multiple years of action already .. The D losses is def a reason we're getting 8.5x instead of 3 to 4x we've seen last 2 yrs that comes with a top tier AAC pre-ssn billing .. I get alot of comfort though knowing Traylor and the DC are solid at developing the players .. and very adept at taking breakout G5 stars .. LB looks gutted in experience but we got 2 4 star bama backups and shad banks from TCU a former starter there all taking redshirts, angling for big senior years they might not have had if playing last year ..  Solid pass rush LB from FCS ETSU .. that unit is glaring and thin on numbers but the BIG potential might make it a top unit on the D .. We def need to X our fingers a little bit with the lack of sure things but the trust is there with the DC, they've out performed most years and there's no shortage of talent and experience to do that again.

Roadrunners also rarely field a BAD special teams unit placing top 50 last year and 30ish the prev 2 years .. sign of good smart coaching when you don't forget that 1/3rd of the game because ST's ends up deciding numerous games every year .. they lose the ace kicker to Oklahoma but I can trust them more than others .. maybe the concern is less depth on D = lower quality special teams .. another area we're hoping stays strong .. 

The schedule is def one they can make the champ game you got roadies @Temple, @Char, @SFLA .. @N.Texas looks like the toughest roadie they were a thorn in the RR's side a couple times back to their CUSA days.. Home stints vs Tulane, ECU, Army, Rice .. The Roadrunner Dome is a good HFA and I'm not sure about Rice but I'd say all the tough stuff does come at home and I'd also say Wave, Cadets and Pirates are each in decline this year, whereas the RR's I think very good chance to for a big boomerang improvement year .. and whether or not its champ grade they can at least eek into the champ game w this schedule and line up some kinda payday for us .. best case scenario is they are turned around and get the champ game at home in the Alamo Dome where they're 2-0 in champ games in '21/22 ..

GO ROADRUNNERS!!!

SEASON WINS

PITT OVER 5.5 -150 (ESPN)

Pitt was THE BRIDGE ARMY's lone RSW loss last year taking them under 5.5 and proceeding in horror to watch them rattle off 7 straight wins to start the season including 2 unbelievable comeback wins vs Cincy and WV .. Cincy was a real 'Choke of the Year' candidate as they had it locked up 27-6 in the 3rd .. WV up 10 in the final minutes blows it, both hit 97% win prob late in the ESPN win % thing .. Cal +2 in TO's with yardage edge and 9 more first downs couldn't figure it out 15-17 loss .. then they proceed to lose their final 5 in a row plus the bowl to Toledo .. still gets me .. In fairness if Pitt was healthy last year they might hit the 6 win mark anyway but just a massive rash of injuries on the OL with low quality backups coming in .. QB Holstein played pretty well, big recruit I think at Bama wanted to play early got more than he could handle the OL and kept playing with repeated injuries dampened his abilities and finally went out for good early vs Ville .. the season already going not great went terrible 43 sacks given up on the year is more than the MAJOR HAVOC MACHINES theyve got on D were able to dish out .. 

What we didn't like last year was it felt like a very fresh team had to come together under new OC Kirwin Bell coming in from FCS W.CAR .. the offense had maybe the worst spring game I'd ever seen with like 19/20 plays getting BLOWN UP and it looked like a really tough time coming and kinda shocked how they were able to pull brute force comeback wins early and then play a few decent all around games before things wet haywire w injuries  .. also the D suffered injuries and very late Xfers but man they pulled it together very well and have some major dudes in the LB and lot to like up front lot of havoc and very decent run D 3.2 yds / rush in conf some legit shut down games .. The D has alot back lot of the heavy hitters and looks primed for improvement .. Offensively I think it lines up where kinda all the keys could turn with a fresh start and better health in year 2 of Bell's system .. better OL play activates a potential very strong run game between Holstein's legs and REID really is an every down back seeing him take over the bowl and 1k yds rush on the year w 580 rec he's a total weapon .. Run game could ignite and hard to gauge the quality of the WR unit it's not an all con lineup but all in this could be a real surprise offense .. the sentiments are that it was a major stinker but even w the new system and inexperience and critical injuries, a hit and miss run game they still were up close to 2 TD's better per game last year, '23 had like 8 games 21 points or less last year diff story and nearly beat Clem late ssn 20-24 loss .. a major improvement but one thats easy to overlook.

^^ PITT CONT'D .. 

The D is really less concerning you hope the new guys aren't bad but given the heavy hitters coming back you'd expect Narduzzi to have them in great shape .. 2 AA LB's sitting in a unit that is the bread and butter of the D .. other units don't have glaring issues and we might get surprise production from DE with Nate Temple returning he was OFY last year before the ssn kicked off .. they do lose a MAJOR ACE KICKER if they kept him I would have never hesitated playing this one .. gotta x fingers there they did bring in a good one from the FCS so just gotta hope the lights aren't too bright for him..

Think we're getting a decent deal for Pitt with anything 6 wins or better schedule lines up nice with FCS Duquesne, C.Mich and BACK YD BRAWL @WV .. can't take such a massive rivalry or the big RICH ROD RETURN for granted but I do gotta like Pitt -1.5 GOY with a sure thing solid run D on our side because WV might end up like an academy on offense w how much I expect they run the ball this yr.. BC, @FSU, @Cuse, NC State @STAN .. I think Pitt has 8 they are at worst a tossup in maybe dog @FSU but they win that I think we make 6 wins easy .. @Stan is actually the real tricky spot going x country after 6 str conf games, Tree is a good team to have in their nasty spot .. Also got Ville at home early we'll know if this team is a contender in that one .. besides them all the VERY TOUGH stuff comes at the end .. off a bye ND feels like an L even at home .. they go @GT and catch them between a trip @BC and their superbowl finale with UGA .. very tricky spot for the Jackets .. Miami in the home finale and man o man Miami closes the year off a bye vs VILLE, STAN, @SMU, CUSE, NC.ST, @VT, @PITT .. 7 straight conf games capped by B2B tough (and very cold) roadies .. I think there's a couple of L's in there for the canes and with ND, FLA @FSU, VILLE, @SMU even the spot @VT is very tricky like we might see Miami more/less done for the year and bunch of turf toe doctors notes flood in for that last week .. oof ugly spot for them. If Pitt can turn it and stay healthy then very possible those final 2 big games are their conf ticket and really got their big opponents in tough spots so .. might be more than season win shoppin for ... GO PANTHERS!!

CONF FUTURES

PITT ACC CHAMP 80-1 (MGM)

FAN at 38-1, MGM was 100-1 but pulled a fast one with the very low limit and let me finally take er for real at the 80 spot .. they usually aren't bait and switch used car salesmen but they had easily the longest odds, always a good book to browse .. Point is shop around its a legit long shot .. But see above I like the prospects of a big turn on offense and just browsing Phil Steele now to get his take I like we're on the same page w these guys.

Very tough to ARRIVE at a sure thing conf contender for this team, quite a few 'it could happen' things need to become 'it did happen!!!' and a little luck on top of that .. But we get those things and I think you got a team that can probably get the conf run kicked off by beating Ville at home off a bye and need to run thru the lesser comp in a decently tough mid ssn stretch of conf games .. but yer tough stuff is NC State at home and @FSU in that slate and I have the real tricky spot @Stan for them and that's a good team to have in a tough spot .. Gotta get to the big finale with a legit capable team, off a bye we get ND at home and man you hope they manage the risk there because @GT on deck is in a tricky spot off @BC and befor etheir BIG UGA showdown which if I had to say conf champ shot or beat UGA I know which they'd take .. just very possible a good GT team is not throwing their best heat in that spot .. and the finale Miami at home is one of the nastiest ugliest spots on the CFB schedule for the canes with SO MANY tough opponents and tough spots possible they throw in the towel early vs a Pitt tm 1 win away from punching their ACC Champ Gm ticket. The potential big turnaround w good schedule setup means we can take a long shot ACC play and not feel too bad if it blows up early. Obvi need to beat Clem or SMU maybe in the finale but Pitt should be lookin legit capable if they make it and doubt they'll be massive dogs and won't be needing a miracle or get 5 cents on the dollar to hedge. 

I did also like Duke 25-30x for a longer shot champ run at first, we look at last year and think if they did get a lucky string of wins but did it with maybe the worst run game in the power 4 maybe worst nationally and just 3 yds / carry under 100 yds so many games 1200 rush and pass game did just enough with the D to win games.. just an avg run game and mighta contended with GT or Miami and prob beat SMU very close IMO making a surprise champ game appearance .. the D is tough again and have a total ACE in Mensah. But I don't see the run game improvement losing star thomas, still just a few OL's in the unit outside the true FR, the line had zero injuries last year very lucky.. and a tricky schedule with the tough start then tricky b2b road stint @cuse @cal .. very likely loss @clem is baked in .. they go b2b roadies @Conn I can't even do the RSW with that game sitting there before they gotta clean up UVA, @UNC a big nasty revenge spot for the heels .. even finale home vs Wake is a rivalry they'll be showing up at least. roster issues and schedule is tough and covert nasty spots, want 50 or 60x to take a stab.

But yeah big picture in the ACC I think we got lot of improvement and tough enough squads that its possible we don't end up w the 2 truly best teams .. Clem, SMU, Miami, Ville are the headliners but gotta love GT too and Pitt, Duke even VT could cause trouble, FSU / UNC sound like pretty big wildcards, NC State I lean down but def can throw a punch and knock a contender out, UVA has the potential and the schedule to be interesting. Cuse, Cal, BC, Wake, Stan seem like duds but one or two of them can win a big game this year things gunna be pretty wild in the ACC very open for a long shot IMO. Hence looking close at schedules when making plays like the Pitt Bomb and of course the UVA Hydrogen Bomb lol .. GO PANTHERS!!

BRIDGE PLAYS
S.CAROLINA / VA TECH +9.5
UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5
TENN / GEORGIA -5.5 WK3

SMALLER
KANSAS / FRESNO +14.5
MICH / OKLA -1.5 WK2
LSU / FLORIDA +7 WK3
UGA / FLORIDA +9.5 WK10
ALABAMA / LSU +6.5 WK11

FUN BETS
VA TECH ML/O45.5 +600
HAWAII ML / O52.5 +661
MICH -34.5 / U51.5 +407
PENN.ST -45.5 / U59.5 +466
MIZZ.ST +32.5 / O57.5 +320

SEASON WINS
PITT OVER 5.5 -150
TULSA OVER 2.5 -180
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115
MISSOURI OVER 7.5 +130
JAMES MAD OVER 7.5 -120
S.CAROLINA UNDER 7.5 -110
TENNESSEE UNDER 8.5 +100
KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -120
BYU UNDER 8.5 -157

CONF FUTURES
PITT 80-1
UTSA 8.5-1 
TULSA 300-1 
MISSOURI 50-1
VIRGINIA 200-1

HEISMAN
DEVON DAMPIER 100-1
BEHREN MORTON 300-1
BLAKE HORVATH 500-1 

 PHIL STEELE NOTES .. 

Every year I get a gander at the new Steele Mag and I'll take a peek thru it lookin for some ideas.. In my opinion the best place to start is always on Phil's conf forecast page, the little preview before the team pages .. Besides the general reputation of being a great info source to uphold, Phil's BIG MAG BRAG is that of being "#1 MOST ACCURATE OVER 30 YEARS!!!" touted on the front cover and a 2 page spread early in the mag .. This rating is tracked by a pretty unassuming website stassn .com but they've done it a long time and on the one hand you have a gentleman's competition among the mag people that's kinda outside the public view, but also for Phil his brand really is promoted with the "most accurate mag" brag. We often see Phil in the team pages adding a charitable spin to a bad unit and have to read between the lines a little because he's got a great relationship with the coaches and gets their time / attn every yr so can't say what he really thinks .. But the gloves come off is in the conference order, and while I think an accurate take, still have to read between the lines a little. In the stassn preview competition it doesn't always pay to go wild on every whim or limb. Maybe for some mags who don't mind going bust trying to be 'the most accurate' a particular year, but Phil's approach you can tell is pretty measured and lands him close to #1 most years .. you'll def notice some interesting things in the conf order like an upstart team moved up a few spots where we expected or a better team a little further down but we do get some wild predictions sometimes .. 

B10, SEC rankings don't have much wild variability in previews or in reality. Last year Phil had Indy ranked #12 in the B1G last year, 5-6 ranks higher than many others putting them at the way bottom .. seeing Indy ranked higher along with reading a glowing preview meant we got a feeling he liked them ALOT more than his ranking indicated and understanding that there's no reason to risk a dramatic loss pumping up Indy's conf rank if the prediction works out Phil will be 5/6 points ahead of most others for the better pre-ssn placement .. Phil tied for 1st in the B10 rankings last year and that was rally his only 'out of the box' move .. if he had em near consensus he'd tie for 8th .. small move made a BIG diff .. 

Last year the B12 was easily the biggest DINGER to everyone's accuracy grade which makes alot of sense, ASU, BYU and think Baylor were all deep bottom dwellers .. CU was middle of the pack, ISU was buried behind a few teams, that was yer top 5 or so .. Utah and OK.ST was consensus #1 and 2 among the previews with AZ #4 and UCF up there too .. and there was your bottom 4 .. I get the sense when we see Phil's B12 ranking this year there won't think twice about where teams were ranked by other mags or anyone I'd go with my gut and stick to it based on the roster and schedule .. and think we see that .. Phil has 3 tied for #1 Baylor, Utah, Iowa State .. 3 tied for #4 ASU, K-ST, T-Tech .. #7 tie with BYU/TCU.. Doesn't seem THAT dramatic but def taking a risk here as I think most previews will have his 3-way #1 and 3-way #4 flip flopped completely.. we also see Cincy at a respectable #9 and bit of a surprise drop for Colorado at #12 .. def some kinda play in there for me maybe more than 1 .. 

CONF FUTURES

BAYLOR B12 CHAMPS 9-1 (ESPN)

Phil Steele special #1 .. We're seeing a few 8's and just the 1 9 out there still but I think we'll see those dwindle rather quick. I probably wasn't going to find a B12 conf future play I really liked in the top 5 or so team, for obvious reasons, we had the top and bottom of the conf switch sides last year and we're used to seeing the conference packed to the gills with teams that all rate in the same general area .. no surprises this year with B12 DOMINATING THE SP+ RATINGS with 8 teams in the 18-35 pre-ssn ranking demographic .. We played ASU 100-1 last year in some way for fun but we knew they'd be better and all they needed to do was be 'in the mix' for a shot ..

This year feels a little more certainty will befall the conf order although we def still have room to hit a true B12 wildcard, I just don't know which it will be yet .. But considering my Phil note above I think we can do this play we're getting 9-1 action on a team Phil believes lands in at least a tie at #1 with Utah and Iowa State this year. Utah I get he's gott'em up there most years, but Iowa State was a bit of a surprise, lot of books offering 12-1 or so basically where we played them last year .. imagine that BRIDGE ARMY DEVOTEES were sitting with 14-1 Clones and 100-1 Sun Devils tickets sippin tea for the B12 champ game lol .. I think Clones have a chance to make it back to the champ game, the schedule is not bad but I'm not sure they're really much better than last year with the 2 MAJOR WR's gone who they reallly needed in a few tough spots. The D had a few injuries at LB and that nearly cut them out of the running, got some guys back this year but I think depth has been a perpetual issue for the clones and been a real factor in them being so wildly hit and miss over the years .. I will say they were out-matched by ASU in the champ game completely and we see ASU is also very very high ret pro returning so the bar for 'how good' a team has to be really starts with the Devils again this year..

I'm gunna rely on Phil's eyes with Baylor we see his B12 projection page with Baylor #1 which is a decent deviation from where books rate them .. and he backs this up in the units chart with #1 and #2 rated units across the board outside of the DL at #6 and DB's at #5 .. still a pretty solid rating considering there's 16 in the conf .. And a quick review of the preview I like where they're headed on O/D and SP-Tms .. really like they have a very high rated backup QB in walker howard and while he'll be a downgrade from Robertson we do probably have someone who gives us an out incase of injury .. Surprised to see Phil has em up there with so much firepower but that's really what I'm looking for when making a Phil play .. out of the box, odds makers still behind .. inside scoop on a team or conf that I have less familiarity with .. and I have no prob tailing his idea and pounding the bears.. Won't be around long... GO BAYLOR!!

SEASON WINS

MARSHALL UNDER 5.5 -115 (MGM)

Took a small bite on this already and figured I must be kinda missing something or one of their SUN BELT opponents is a surprise stinker .. also really don't like going under on 5.5 making a bowl would be a great goal to hit for these guys .. but I really couldn't find the reason not to bet this one bigger and post it .. Phil putting em dead last #7 in the SBC East division kinda sealed the deal making it a play beyond GA State even and dead last in his conf unit rankings .. MGM prob not offering -115 now but plenty of -120's out there .. 

Pretty widely publicized exodus during bowl season led Marshall to cancel their sure thing destruction vs Army .. idk why they got rid of Charles Huff he just won them the conference and took half the SBC champ team with him so S.Miss .. The real travesty is S.Miss isin't on the schedule woulda been so great to have this game in Hattisburg or in Huntington mighta been even better showing up with their team and beating the pants off of em in their old stadium .. I don't see much to like on the Herd's roster Carlos Del Rio was a high rated recruit with good size but horrible passer and relegated to basically backup duty and got very little action as theres not much reason to develop the guy .. now if he's hitting 60+% this year could be an issue but my sense is he struggles to hit 50% .. Backup Zion Turner is more of the same ... this is a pretty unattractive sales pitch to any WR's in the portal and they got alot of career backups from all over who haven't played much, same for the OL and you got a RB in Tony Mathis but surprised how little action he saw at Houston LY .. new OC is Rod Smith who was Rich Rod's OC at JAX State and wth him at Arizona .. Rich Rod is an HC/OC/QB/OL do it all coach and I guess didn't see a need to take him to WV with him .. the good news is he was HC Tony Gibson's old teammate at Glenville State .. obvi that doesn't make me feel better about the hire.

^^ MARSHALL CONT'D .. 

Tony Gibson is a real legit defensive coach from NC State but problem 1 here is he's got very little talent or experience to work with.. they do have a CRAP LOAD of xfers from all over lotta G5 / FCS guys not a ton of experience or great PFF grades to point to and there are a few returning Marshall guys mostly from the 2-deep .. The potential big problem I see for this D is Tony gunna install his 3-3-5 which was a pretty highly sophisticated weapon at NC State the D really led the way for them over the years without much help from the offense most of the time .. I think Tony can get this Tiger turned around at some point he's not used to working under these conditions he had a great pipeline for developing players into his scheme at NC State replacing starters was never a big issue and he had real talent wanting to play for him .. 3-3-5 installments in year 1 always seem to be a struggle to find the right guys and get em trained up and there's no expectations year 1 other than find a group that can play and others worth developing .. and to do that you gotta play alot of folks and let em make mistakes .. very much a development year on this side and on offense too going from charles huff's air raid / run n shoot style to I guess a rich rod style read option and not a scheme expert but my guess is they didn't line up all the right personnel for either big shift .. We saw Miss St switch out of their air raid recently to more of a shotgun pro style offense after leach and the results werent good .. then changed again last year to a fast ucf explosive / tempo offense and the results werent good either .. Lot of changing and tinkering for The Herd and nobody's expecting much so development is the real goal this year..

Schedule has some winnable games but covering this win total means Marsh realllly needs to beat the FCS E.Kentucky Mizzoo State, @Mid-T and gotta be ready for them early this year .. and must win @G-State late in the year during a tough stretch of games .. EKY feels like a W but no way they don't smell FBS blood in the water and its a little team just down the road from them, they're showing up .. Mizzoo State actually has a good QB and I expect Mid T to be better after a real 'soul searcher' of a year LY and this is a good test for them and big win if they can take it .. Probably a dog going @G-State .. Marsh clears those they need 2 more conf and best bets are beating @Coastal?.. @App State?.. or ODU?... I have all them maybe not improving but none seem significantly worse off this year and I can't get close to 3 conf wins .. I think they lose to Mizzoo St or @MTSU or @G-State and this is over quick.

Saw a post on X that said Marshall leads CFB in True Frosh/transfers at 61 players. 

Hey Bridge,

Great work as usual. Coming back with my annual what do you think pick. My super early szn picks were somewhat trendy, nothing surprising, hopped in early Utah Big 12 futures with Duck, Florida over 6.5 (we actually discussed in Feb?) and PSU natty odds +1000+ knowing they'd address some holes. But I've been in the lab, and I'm finding the numbers sharper than usual this year. What do you think?;

1. Air Force O5.5 -150. Hate the juice, would consider a 6 with the right odds. Lots returning on O that caught aflame at the end of last year with a big hole at QB. The guy there J Johnson (not vet NFL Josh but new Josh) seems AF replacement level with some scoot. But my real cap is on the lines where they return enough on O line with pounding backs and some real actual talent on D with 3 legit seniors. Schedule gives us a handful of not stout teams (Bucknell, USU, UConn, UNM) though some challenges (Boise, Navy, UNLV, Army). I think the balance lies whether Wyoming, SJSU, CSU and Hawaii can stop the attack at all. AFA a little suspect in the secondary. Given how bad this team was and still eeked out 5 wins - closing on a heater, 6 seems a no brainer to me and I'm thinking they are in the top part of the conference with Boise and maybe SJSU this year.

 The Big Ten is interesting and thinking about a mid/low tier making a jump. Sparty had my eye on it but the back loaded schedule means a perfect start required. Not ready to trust Chiles like that.

BRIDGE PLAY

MINNESOTA / BUFFALO +18.5

It's a little early to be hitting the MAC team Bridge Play style vs B10 but I did put just enough on this I can call it a BP so for bettor or worse let's run w it .. 

I looked Buff's roster over early hoping to find things to not like and take the RSW under but actually had alot to like .. I held off on the conf futures while guys like Duck and others bet it into the ground but took a little hit of that as well early on too .. Buff has a surprising number of quality players back on D and while losing ULTIMATE DUDE Shaun Dolac to the Rams the D remains in pretty good shape ... I was surprised last year that Pete Lembo and his team were able to make some hay with CJ Ogubongagou so and surprised he tried his hand at the pros this year .. They can def build on the success with former K-ST/UCONN/PSU Xfer Ta'Quan Roberson former 4 star guy who did decent at UConn during a tough year .. multiple injured seasons for him but when he's on he can play .. wouldn't go GOY banking on him staying healthy but can for week 1 .. Just a team with every unit looking potentially breakout worthy we'll see at WR's but lot to like there too and have the weapons for a dynamic run/pass offense with the dual threat QB, great 1K yd RB who can be a rec target, Best WR Victor Snow is back small but very productive in the slot, get Nic McMillan back from injury who presents more of a down field threat .. hope others can contribute but solid core .. One thing I try not to overlook is special teams as it really ends up deciding a few games every year not just the kicker but big returns, drive extending penalties, punt and kick blocks .. HC Pete Lembo has made his bones as a great ST Coordinator and had a very very high rating at Memphis in '19 bringing them to the NY6 bowl, this team had multiple kick/punt return TD's, ace kicker .. did it again at S.Car having th #1 special teams 2 yrs ago and had a punter who pretty much single handedly beat clemson in the finale pinning them deep many times and top 50ish rated in the models and phil mag last year was a MASSIVE jump from 100th ranked sp-tms which is where he found these guys 2 yrs ago..  not sure he has all the ACES to do that again but good chance we don't lose a bet in that 3rd of the game as so many G5's do vs the BIG BOYS .. 

Minny got on my good side last year when I saw the tape of Brosmer at QB and he really changed the attitude of the offense bringing them a pass game to compliment their already solid run and defense .. Not everyone was on board with my over 5.5 call but survived a stinger in the opener and still had the targets on the schedule to land 7 wins .. Brosmer gone with some WR's in Jackson and Spencer and sounded like they were 'still shopping' for QB's post spring .. didn't see anything new come in so safe to assume they're in the best position they'll be in for fall .. but def keep an eye on that .. I got the sense they weren't enamored with the QB group and prob heavily relying on their run game which is solid and has a good dude in Darius Taylor .. Minny's O had been tied up for years without any effective passing so we hope to see that here .. Defense looks promising again but lose the good DC Rossi last year and another re-shuffle this year might not be problematic w an in house promotion for Danny Collins .. I  really liked what they brought back last year and it still looks good but not as sure thing strong as last year IMO .. 

Big picture I think Minny could have probs on offense if they land in pass situations .. and we might see a surprisingly capable buffalo team playing tough and not making mistakes and this line prob doesn't indicate the potential issues with Minny's O or that Buff looks better than expected .. yet .. Good luck!

SEASON WINS

TULANE UNDER 8.5 -110 (MGM)

Coulda been sharp and just played when Bridge n Duck talked about these guys .. Big picture the Wave loses some major firepower with the BIG QB/RB/WR Trio in Mensah, Mekhi and Mario .. Supposed to bring in TJ Finley but he appears to have some legal trouble again and Tulane has already moved on from him .. they have options with Kadin Semonza from Ball St who could be a gamer, Donovan Leary from ILL and Brandon Sullivan from Northwestern and Iowa fame .. surprisingly Sullivan tops the depth chart in Phil's preview as I expected Semonza with decent stats on a crappy mac team to maybe step his game up to the G5 AAC Big Leagues .. maybe he will but Phil putting sullivan there tells me he's not translating over as a sure thing and gives me even more skepticism about the QB spot .. Mario went to the Rams as a UFA and had a major 1k year great connection with him and Mensah .. Mekhi Hughes is likely RB1 or RB2 at Oregon after his 1600 all purpose yds with the Wave last year, major heavy hittin RB dude .. 3 big dudes that don't oft just replace themselves and the entire rest of the receiving corps is out as well .. they keep Shazz Preston for his big breakout year, 5 star BAMA recruit was injured fall played sparingly late he's got the potential but likely limited by the QB and fewer weapons around for D's to worry about .. Tulane has some 1st team AAC OL's returning but they were stepped in OL awesomeness for years and its a case of the "we'll see's" as to how they perform but all around I see a significant step back on offense and maybe a giant leap relative to what they were doin the last few years .. 

Defense does look nasty and just lookin around the AAC this prob is the class of the conference .. The unit that gets hit hardest is LB with Tyler Grubbs being a havoc machine back to his true fr year at La Tech I believe was covid year .. and wrecking ball ever since .. secondary has the xfers to reload and lot of potential breakout players so its just a matter of it happening .. it looks potentially G5 elite but it could just be very good .. 

Schedule is nasty and very front loaded making room for potential upsets in the early going for a team that has to form up quick .. Home opener vs NU maybe tricky with them having Preston Stone but I think the Cats are rightfully a dog idk about a full TD though .. @So Bama yeah this could be tough for the Jags, don't need a loss in the first two but if we see it we're in really good shape .. I think the losses come from Mensah's return week 3 with his Duke team .. Blue Devils look good this year and if I knew their run game was improving I might make them a dark horse ACC candidate .. Trip @Ole Miss looks difficult I will say Missy did FA and nearly FO last time so need a Rebs win think we'll get it .. and in conf we got ECU, ARMY, and @UTSA, @Memphis in B2B roadies .. very tough games .. the final stretch is easy .. the one reallly potentially glaring massive letdown spot is going @Ole Miss and b2b roadies into @TULSA .. Tulane playing 3 P5 teams in 4 weeks and 3/5 roadies including their superbowl playoff resume game at ole miss and man does @Tulsa look like such a massive down spot and lot of P4 talent xferred into that team there's no way they aren't seeing they land as a giant home dog in one of the biggest ugly spots on the whole CFB schedule .. No certainty in what Tulsa will be this yr but the spot is so nasty that tulane could drop one in week 5 to a ham sandwich so watch out there.. 

@JozKnows

 Was forced to pull the trigger as I saw -145s. Another one I like is TCU but the number won't last at 6.5.

Anyway tailed Tennessee, I think that's a solid one! Thanks! 

@JozKnows

 Yeah TCU is well up on the radar, stood right out with the first SP+ version in feb and very much a team that can turn themselves around quick .. actually surprised they didn't sustain success after their big year and hip to the modern age really the first team that makes the champ game with a heavy portal class .. I just sorta expected they'd have guys lining up to play there but becoming very clear that sustained success from heavy portal teams was very tough even in the pre NIL or even the early NIL days .. TCU was so bad that prev year too firing patterson omg were they terrible .. then don't make a bowl the follow on year .. and FSU like the roster was pretty buttoned up still last year I thought but mattered not .. Roster juiced with heavy portal steroids can expect a significant downturn when those wear off and there's just not much a team can do to stop it  lol ..

But here we are a few years later and maybe TCU got their portal roids cycle queued up and ready to take off again .. idk I haven't really dove into their roster as much yet.

But yeah Tenn feels like a struggle session this year .. SCAR maybe wasn't portal super heavy they developed their guys over a couple years but really all came together in a big way and I think that's their strategy to find competitive years now we see lot of FR/Sophs and not much portal activity .. Sellers, Stewart should be around next year .. and you see their RB situation we might see a dude like Faison have to sit a year pending his waiver .. you see that happen just bet yer bottom dollar this is a majorly overrated team just angling for 2026 because the RB unit was really thin and very iffy so quite the gamble banking that Faison would be available this yr.. no big time WR's in the door same crew as last year no standout .. That one I'm getting more and more sure of that its just big year roster management and we might even see Sellers and Stewart take RS or some other way to reduce their role this yr .. then we catch a massive rebound in '26 .. 

A few others like that I think Tenn for sure I don't see them even trying in the portal .. Ole Miss might have post portal sterioids syndrome I mean they took their big shot and even Phil has the WR unit knocked out the top 15 and I suspect thats benefit of the doubt and maybe more of a work in progress this yr .. Didn't look thru them yet btu Rebs will get a close look from me .. 

@JozKnows

You got a knack for finding the goods my dude .. that's on my radar agree on the juice .. I don't do much with the service academies before Phil comes out but that was on my radar for sure .. found a way just doing FB dives late last year and man the key play to making the offense tick could spring them to success this year .. I'd look for 411 on the QB does he look/sound like a good change .. the D do they have more bases covered this yr .. doesn't take much for AF to go bowling .. hard to gauge the MW I'd expect something better from Wyo and SDSU and Colo State looks good UNLV still decent, Hawaii maybe their offense takes a step to being not horrible lol .. but even then feels like AF going thru their bad times always fun to play them when they're on their way up .. good luck!

Don't usually post my previous year records but looking back even I was kinda like .. oh man .. lol

2024 13-1
2023 16-6
2022 21-3-1

3 Year Total .. 50-10-1 .. 83.3333%... 

The best part of all that is I'm not burning you with juiced up stuff .. sometimes we hit a juicy one but not often .. Tulsa over 2.5 -180 from this year's crop I think is the biggest juiced up play I've posted that I can remember .. and while lot of them moved before season kicked off I think all were available for a reasonable time .. except FSU last year I did punch that before kickoff and remember Robtri didn't have time to get it lol my bad dude ..

Very tough to continue this trend but I do like all 11 we hit so far with maybe just Mizzoo being a little more fingers xx'd but getting the ++ juice so that's expected .. Phil really did bury them on his conference order lol so idk we've been there before with stuff like the Cam Ward Special Wazoo over 4.5 and we took ++ odds for over 5.5 for on that one too if memory serves .. anyway .. good luck!

one heck of a run B...you're the Win Totals GOAT my man

@Bridge1

 Love the team totals. Bridge is the best and many thanks. 

SMALLER

TULANE / NORTHWESTERN +7

Tailin duck on that one we're both on board with tulane being just not as ready to roll as we're used to seeing and Northwestern has a few things to like on the DL but especially upgrading at QB, they replaced Mike Wright after a few games last year with their RS Freshman who I thought did okay given the ask and the bar for them will at a min be higher this year .. they add preston stone who did great at SMU before his injury and the ponies moved on to their big rising star jennings as he was clearly ready to take the reigns last year.. I expect Preston to get the nod which means pretty decent upgrade from last year at the big key position given the likely improvement of the backup and stone a known commodity leading SMU to the AAC championship 2 yrs ago .. We also know that Preston got the nod over Jennings to start the year but bit of a jerky but not terrible performance @Nevada vs what looked to me like a really solid D .. then very tough start vs BYU Stone was sacked 3 times and hit 2/4 passes .. Jennings came in and didn't do any better vs the surprise cougars team hitting only 46% 0TD 1Pick .. Jennings can avoid pressure but really not great last year throwing into it, esp in playoff games lol .. Anyway the key thing for me is NU going from very very iffy QB situation last year to now a situation where we know its much improved and can't really limit what Preston's ceiling could be same quality before but year of backup duty and soul searching think good chance to take advantage of the fresh start .. Interestingly Stone's injury in '23 was right before he was set to play Tulane in the AAC champ game before his injury vs Navy in the reg ssn finale .. so kindof a nice story with him pickin up almost right where he left off .. Also a bit ironic is if the Wave end up going with Sullivan he used to be NU's QB .. he filled in for his injured QB in '22 and had a good pass comp % but maxed out at 159 yards vs Iowa, 74% 4TD 3INT's that yr .. similar story in '23 comes in as the backup and did have one nice gm vs MD for a nice win but backup again LY Iowa didn't play much .. So NU catching 7 I think with clearly better QB situation and maybe BY FAR no doubt Wave would take Preston Stone and give NU Sullivan back in one of those Nico xfer swap-o-rama's .. 

NU is not lighting up Phil's All Con chart but do have an OL and a LB on there .. top of the BIG is absolutely loaded with quality and sheer quantity of players in a conf that is more accurately described as THE BIG 18 lol .. so placing anyone in Phil's top 4 conf all con chart it feels like yer well vetted .. 

^^^ NU / TULANE CONT'D .. 

NU's HC was swiped from NDSU a few yrs ago and promoted first year to HC with the Fitz debaccle .. I still pray for all the victims of Shrek's List and the Car Wash what a joke .. anyway NU has their much less expensive HC now with Baun and he's a good def coach and his DC look set to improve .. Phil expecting their best points production since 2017 which means he expects at least a 7 point jump from what was a horrible offensive sitch last year .. The offense brought in SDSU's OC and tough year with iffy QB situation 5 ret starters, changing QB's mid ssn, bad run game bad pass game .. I think they get their feet under them this year .. Phil also has a 3 point drop on D so 10 point diff overall and I wouldn't say the strength of schedule is what's driving it looks like a tougher deal to me ..

Last years' team took down a pretty Miami OH Mac team 13-6 and went toe to toe vs a really fun duke team lost at home 20-26 in double OT .. Surprise big win @MD 37-10 as 11 pt dogs .. beat Purdue in OT later in the yr as things started souring injuries, etc .. pretty solid game vs ILL in the finale lost 28-38 but 442 yards to 382 -2 TO's and tough time running the ball handed ILL a scoreboard win .. Yeah big picture NU better, Tulane I think potential trouble coming certainly doesn't have the BIG FIREPOWER trio of Mensah/Mekhi/Mario .. NU still has Cam Porter in at RB he was half of a nice tandem that put Nebraska on its ass in ireland a few yrs back .. Yeah this feels good I'll take the free TD here considering the likely NU Improvement / Tulane Decline and don't think its really reflected in SP+ yet or this pre ssn line.. also like NU's kicker / punter situation .. Tulane had a real nice ST unit last year and it looks much iffier for the Wave plus lost ace kick returner rayshawn pleasant to auburn so trending down .. lot to like and def gunna find a spot to put NU in a ML parlay too - Good luck!

@robtri

 The best part was the funds received at the end of the season from my “turf accountant”… it was the biggest ever! Can’t thank you enough. 

@robtri

Haha yeah buddy everyone loves a nice year end bonus .. 

SEASON WINS

NORTHWESTERN OVER 3.5 -140 (BOL)

Shop around might find better, im a little hamstrung on where I can bet it .. Big picture I like the Cats to pull themselves together after I think a predictably rough year .. take us back to 2023 we had more of a typical iffy NU roster but then an ATOMIC BOMB scandal w FITZ and the hazing. Fitz one of the highest paid coaches on the hot seat from one player out of like 10,000 Fitz coached making all the noise amp'd thru the ESPN's drama scoop megaphones. The player had other reasons to be disgruntled from not playing but fantastical tales of Shrek's List and the Car Wash won over the AD to push the fire button while the tattle tale sure left ALOT of room for interpretations between inappropriate locker room goofery vs true to form hazing and any 'confirming' account could have landed in either bucket very easily. Felt like a a targeted hit job when the expensive coach was the only one fired and none of the sex assault pers got even a 1 game suspension and obvi victims still have to go in the locker room with the abusers and play the year like nothing happened and surprisingly just 1 guy took advantage of the extended portal window (which is kinda weird).. then coaches / players rallying for Fitz and forming the famous "Cats against the world" team identity much to the AD's and ESPN's chagrin, musta been really tough for the victims to see that .. Anyway we never really closed the loop on the truth w drive-by media moving on quick. The Rally Cats improbable 6 wins beat Utah in the bowl game. Expensive coaches get julius caesar'd is part of the game now but can't say I've seen any other team respond that way. Players predictably did say FU to the AD and left. Cats did eek out 4 W's but to the low hangin fruit one semi-shock upset @MD but still all the dregs of their schedule.

This year feels like we have a team projected to be terrible again SP+ rates em -6 points below the avg cfb team squarely behind Sparty and only Purdue rates below as easily the worst P4 team. But maybe one of the biggest upgrades in CFB at QB with Preston Stone. Jack Lausch was thrust into the starting role last yr and was showed promise if he can develop so the bar is low but not ultra low w him as a backup and prob can get us a win if Stone gets hurt. Decent RB tandem with Cam Porter still there. WR is a question 1 solid for sure but hope they at least can find a few more productive starters and need a TE to step up. OL looks in much better shape, 8 guys post spring last yer and 10+ non true fr this yr more exprience and one legit leader. Defense looks capable, DL maybe even solid, 3 LB's to like albeit a thin unit and a few to like in the secondary.

3 key must wins vs FCS W.Illinois, not a great FCS team last yr lose their QB I think NU can handle this one. ULM is in a tricky spot but at home and even more of a tricky spot for the Warhawks. NU can drill that team big in a year they won't have many such spots. Must beat Purdue at home, boilers bottomed out last year badly. HC Barry Odom has all the coaching capital he needs to burn this entire year if he can start to lay THE FOUNDATION.

NU with their improved profile locks in 3 W's and decent targets @Tulane a very winnable and important tone setting game w Wave likely trending down this yr. UCLA home both tms off a bye gives em a shot. Minny at home Gophs go b2b roadies @Oregon before @NU = ugly spot. Longer shot but NU always shows up @ILL and @NEB and @USC  hope we're not relying but both in a conf sandwich NU prob takes an unassuming spot on the schedule and long story but actually really like NU going to LA and pulling a shocker. This is a BRIDGE Bread n Butter RSW play, over 3.5 with an improving team, go from no QB to 1 maybe 2 and 3 very likely W's plus 3-5 more shots on goal.