BRIDGE PRE-SSN

MW Cont'd .. 

UTAH STATE UNDER 9 -125 (BAR)
Cookie crumbled their way so many times last year and I got a good enough feel that I don't think they are buttoning up all the holes they had LY and could end up finding more problems than before .. were getting 9 because of the EPIC run from last year and keep the coaches/QB in tact but top 2 WR's and top TE are gone and Thompkins was a real legit next level player 1500 yds receiving last year .. they get a couple maybe surprises from the portal Cobbs from MD 277 yds LY and prospect Xavier Williams 4 star prospect from Bama, hasn't played yet unknown medical issue .. so possible they fill the massive hole but we'll see .. the hole is really massive .. I obvi do like Logan Bonner to fingle wins and maybe have a strong team but any injury there and backup is Levi Williams from Wyoming who is solid but also a solid step down .. On D they def lose a couple big time players in Shaq Bond, Cam Lampkin in the secondary and Justin Rice .. they were all very solid and not easy for Aggies to replace .. could be tough to be much better on D and they were prone LY to having bad games, giving up 6-7 yds / rush multiple times .. When they lost they got smoked and lotta close wins vs Wash St, AF, UNLV, CO.State all coulda / shoulda gone the other way .. 

Schedule has a sure thing loss vs Bama so we're looking for 3 more losses .. @BYU, AF, @Boise seem like the best shots and I really like BYU and AF this year .. otherwise they got trips to Co.State, Wyoming, Hawaii not easy spots to rack up must wins .. I also have SJSU and UNLV as likely better this year and just a variety of ways to not go 10 or 11-1 after Bama and I lose the bet .. I think almost all the probabilities come closer to 6-8 wins and any shock scenarios lean heavier to 5 wins than 9 or more wins here .. even their FCS opponent Weber State should be no picnic .. 

WYOMING UNDER 5.5 EVEN (BAR)
Not much to say other than team got gutted in the portal both QB's out far and away best WR they've had in maybe 10 years or more .. few OL's and a ton on D grad, xferred and really not much is coming in the door .. Best shots at W's seem like FCS N.Col, @Haw, @N.Mex, Tulsa, SJSU .. maybe they are favored in 3 of those / tossups in 2 .. but SJSU sounds like a comeback year with Cordeiero coming in from Hawaii and some other xfers pumping up their offense so they could be a decent dog in that one .. We already know they're 10 pt dogs to Illinois and beyond that its SF, @BYU, UT.St, @CO.St, Boise, @Fresno .. basically if they lose any of their easier games its gunna be really tough to win 2 from what's likely 10 or more point favorites .. Wyoming does always produce tough players and style of football / home field can squeeze extra wins out of their schedule but man this team looks to be in bad shape and very thin, bad QB Peasly coming in and just nothing behind him, no room for injuries and coach already mentioned a couple from spring including a bad knee injury .. we got even odds if some bigger books push these guys to 6 i'd take it again .. bigger bet .. but funny feeling the bad news will spread pretty quick on these guys .. would grab good odds on 5.5 sooner than later .. 

There's a few others numbers I want to play or see from the MW crop because I think I have a beat on some of these teams that the books aren't really in tune w yet ... I got limited at Barstool so have to wait .. womp .. here's some 411 on what I'm thinking .. 

AIR FORCE ..  RSW 8.5, I would love to see another book drop an 8.. I think this team could run off with the conferece this year .. would play 8.5 if 8's don't show up .. Schedule is REALLY solid for about 7 wins, 3 more likely wins and have home vs Boise / @ SDSU are the toughest competition .. Also no sure thing losses and this team could run the table this year if 
NEVADA .. RSW 7, got limited by BAR and didn't get a chance to hit this one .. I don't think they come close to 7, w very likely losses @Iowa @AF, Boise, Frenso, SDSU on the schedule .. even CO.State, UNLV, SJSU should be tougher customers this year .. have to run the table on all their easy wins NMSU, Tex State, FCS Inc Word, @Hawaii and the more likely losses and yer still only at 7 wins .. woof .. would play this under 6.5 if we don't see 7 at another book .. 
UNLV .. hit small bucks over 3 .. really hope we see 2.5's or an idiot book put a 2 out there .. profile is not great but really strong recruiting classes last couple years for them and bring in Harrison Baily from Tennessee he was not bad and got pushed out by the goods the vols got now .. I see 4 games they should be really competitive in and another 3 games they should have a punchers chance in if they are decently improved .. very tough to see just 2 wins this year w Idaho St, NM, @Haw, Nev, N.Tex on their schedule even if one or two of those are not terrible this year .. 
the chips fall their way ..   
FRESNO ... RSW at 9 but can't touch it there w Oreg State, USC, Boise, SDSU on there but man this team could really be awesome too .. we see 8 or 8.5 and I'd play it .. 
HAWAII .. RSW 4.5 wanted this 6 or so .. they may not even hit 4.5 but recall 13 games for these guys and just always a chance they stumble on an extra win .. they have Vandy, FCS Duquesne, Nevada, Wyoming, UNLV all at home and another good shot @NMSU .. so not impossible to land on a few games .. some books might give us a 5 or 5.5 after peering at the schedule and think we take it if they give it .. 

Got AAC's and Independent RSW's over at Caesars .. should be a competitive conference this year .. don't hate the numbers they are dropping have to get to know the conf a little better .. 

SMU RSW OVER 6.5
Ponies with Lashlee and Tanner Mordechai sound like a pretty awesome combo and Lash is absolutely blowing up the portal grabbing prospects from UNC, Bama, UGA, Miss State, 3 from Texas 15 guys total 11 from the P5 ranks and while many are true prospects there's a few guys we like to step in right away .. its already one of the stronger ret production teams out there and they are still active filling needs thru last week especially on D which was a huge need the last few years but also bring in I think a really good DC from Lib whipped those guys into great shape the last few years really underrated defense and before that LB's coach for that awesome Memphis team w again underrated D that was such a killer .. There are questions about whether the conf as a whole is going to be wildly better, even if Cincy comes back to earth I think its safe to say Houston and UCF will be killers again this year, Memphis could join the ranks .. but even South Florida, ECU, Tulsa or Tulane won't be freebies so 6.5 while it sounds low may be much more difficult than when I gave all of you RSW 7 last year and we rocked that one .. 

Schedule is tough @N.Texas is a huge cross-town rivalry and played SMU really close last year .. I do still like it because N.Tex loses some really good players but they get Gunnell (memp inj LY) and could surprise .. FCS Lamar, Navy, @Tulsa @S.Fla @Tulane .. lotta roadies for the seemingly easier games .. but have shots against better comp @MD is doable and have TCU, Memphis, Houston, Cincy at home .. really depends how they handle the easier road competition and I just think this team improves this year and gets in a spot where likely scenario is 7-8 wins .. and if the portal ends up being really generous then maybe a surprise and they're in it for a seat at the conf champ game again .. I def don't expect a bad surprise and they drop a bunch of games they should win .. could be xx'ing our fingers at some point but I like our chances .. like alot more if some book drops this to 6, would hit it again .. 

TULSA RSW OVER 5 -115 (CZR)
The hope is Brinn is a little better this year and doesn't throw as many picks .. there is some concern on the D losing guys but the schedule is not a super killer I think the books are marking them lower than they should be .. Wyoming, J-Ville State, Navy, Temple, Tulane, S.Florida and N.ILL are a good group to bag wins I think there's 4 or 5 W's in there already .. doubt we'll need to land surprise W's from a much tougher group of opponents Ole Miss, Cincy, SMU, Memp or Houston but we may land 6 of the easier 7 games and very well sneak away from SMU or Memp w a surprise .. again not saying sure thing but Tulsa has been steady tough and producing NFL players and defense has been pretty solid .. I think the offense could take a step forward with experience / key guys back .. just more to like at this number even in a tough conference .. 

Some other interesting ones in the AAC, no plays yet just comments .. 

UCF 9.5 .. think that's where it was LY .. I think this is likely a revenge year and they end up romping but 9.5 is a bit steep for what's shaping up to be a really tough conference .. 

HOU 9 .. with their schedule they could def hit this but also got UTSA/T-Tech on the schedule and unless they beat both they still have Memp, SMU, ECU, its just not a sure thing .. tough to trust Holgersen to not make trouble for themselves somewhere down the line too flub a likely win .. play 8.5 .. 9 .. pass .. 

ECU 6.5 .. schedule is just so unbelievably nasty with NC State, UCF, BYU, Cincy, Houston, Memphis on there .. they gotta run the table on their easier competition @S.Fla Old Dom, Campbell, Navy, @Tulane, @Temple and still need a big upset .. could happen but think its likely they drop at least one of the easier games and then yer hoping for 2 big upsets .. hoping we see a 5.5 here .. 

S.FLA 4 .. EPIC tough schedule w BYU, UF, Ville, ECU, Cincy, Hou, SMU, UCF .. where are at least 2 strong likely wins at ? .. FCS Howard and maybe home vs Tulane, @ Tulsa? .. woof .. hope we see 3 but even then there's one sure thing win, maybe 2 and think they will land at least one more punch here but geeeezzzzus .. no easy week .. 

NAVY 4 .. another just absurdly tough schedule .. need this at 3 and will be sweating all year probably just for a tie .. Memp, ECU, AF, SMU, Hou, Cincy, ND, UCF, Army .. even Delaware is usually a tough customer in the FCS .. at least they avoid BYU huh lol .. 

TULANE 6 .. not worth it until we know they are much better and gunna be surprisingly competitive its another huge schedule w Cincy, SMU, UCF, Memp, Hou, and few games they are sure to be competitive in .. FCS Alc State .. S.Miss (huge rivalry btw) .. @Tulsa? .. @S.Fla? .. ECU? .. @K-State? .. yeah I'd look to go under on this one if anything when I get more info this looks like maybe 5 wins with really tough opponents and H/A schedule and alot of teams that could be much tougher this year .. would take it with less info if we see a 6.5 drop out there .. 

TEMPLE 2.5 .. would much rather grit my teeth on this one .. FCS Lafayette, @Duke, Rutgers, UMass, @Navy, S.Florida, Tulsa all good shots at W's or possible W's .. I want to see if we can get a 2 otherwise I probably would take a stab at this one when almost for sure have 2 sure thing wins .. played them Over 3 with 2 sure things and a bunch of good chances and they were worse than expected I got lucky and tied on a win vs Memphis lol .. we find a 2 and its a sure tie and plenty of shots at a W ..   

MEMP 7.5 .. got nothing .. Gunnell left to N.Texas and we're all assuming they will be better .. might be .. there's 7 games before things ramp up, I'd want to know they were not gunna have QB problems drop them any of those games like Tulsa, Tulane, Navy, Ark State .. 

Independents .. 

NMSU RSW 2 .. first think no way they even win 2 but actually have a good crop of shots .. Nevada, @Utep, Hawaii, FIU, N.Mexico, @UMass, FCS Lamar ..... even a bad bad team could have a great season with this schedule and I might actually throw some fun bucks on what should be either a tie or they gotta go matrix to miss out wins on all those games .. the trouble is they lose 12 guys to the portal .. unsurprisingly only 2 of them get picked up .. and when you have thousands of guys trying to land a spot they only pick up 5 guys .. 2 of them from the FCS ranks .. woof .. and how bad you gotta be to go from Michigan to NMSU .. idk .. might play it over .. fun bucks for a good laugh either way .. 

UMASS 2.5 .. Stony Brook, UCONN, NMSU, E.Michigan, Temple .. maybe Ark State if they really fall off the map .. Whoever has figured out which of these really dog sh!t teams can actually play football this year let me know, we can make a fortune with these RSW numbers playing these schedules lol .. 

ARMY 8.5 .. love army but this schedule is tough ... books already logging a likely loss vs Coastal being 5 pt favs .. UTSA, Wake, AF, Navy, GA.State, Troy,  are other not sure things .. the easy money comes vs FCS Nova, Colgate, UConn, UMass, ULM, .. even if they run that table its a tough slate to go 4-3 and hit the over ..  obvi neither me or the books really know if Army is gunna be for sure awesome or struggle in games we don't expect them to so no play from me unless we see a 9 but 8.5 still seems just a bit rich for a likely guess .. 

BYU 7.5 .. the 3 games I really like them in aren't even super sure things .. dixie state and Wyoming maybe but @S.Florida?... Utah State?... ECU?.. @Liberty? .. @Stanford?.. they cruise thru them and still gotta beat Baylor, Oregon, ND, Arky, Boise .. no way I can take it they could drop one or two of those 'easier' games .. but yeah gotta love BYU looking to tussle with some big boyz this year, 10 solid or really tough teams on the schedule ..  

AIR FORCE OVER 7.5 -125 (CZRs)

We've seen the AF number dropping at a couple places at 8.5 and I noted above I probably would have gotten around to playing it but was hoping one of these books would drop an 8 .. Caesars comes thru big again with a 7.5 and don't mind laying the odds at all because this feels like a really good number .. one we won't see for long, or again so bigger bet for me.

Writing was on the wall during covid year when Calhoun had to scrape together guys from down the depth chart and they turned out a really good season .. that talent and depth really comes to fruition this year with much of the offense, nearly all starters and a large amount of the depth and break out stars returning and Micah Davis looks like he's ready for a break out season doing anything from jet sweeps to going deep .. The stuff we hope to hear is the Falcons finding another good quality WR .. they had 2 real good ones a few years back in '19 and that allowed Hammond to rip some big bombs deep when safeties were creeping up .. can't say at this point if they have that but would def look at conference futures if we knew they had a few more targets thru the air .. 

I wouldn't call the defense concerning but there are a few more losses on that side namely big time players like Jordan Jackson who actually went in the 6th round .. but also Demonte Meeks at LB and 2 HM's in the secondary graduated and they were hit by a few other grads further down the depth chart .. nonetheless they return ~60% of their snaps and 17 guys over 100 reps last year with some break out stars at every level .. The NT position is one to keep an eye on since run stopping up the gut might be a little tougher without a beast like Jackson, would want to know they got a guy to fill that spot before considering conf futures .. but otherwise this team looks ready to take another step forward and books are on the same page at 4th best odds for the MW at 6-1 .. keep in mind we hit them for 35-1 last year and almost had them heads up with SDSU who we also had futures on .. 

Besides expecting AF to be even better than LY we also have a great schedule to hit this number with only 4 true road games .. Northern Iowa is a really tough FCS team usually and even took Iowa State to the bell last year .. still like AF to play their game well and come out ahead .. then 3 FBS duds I think we find some strong W's home vs Colorado, @Wyoming, Nevada .. all 3 are on my ugly list this year .. so likely 4 wins to start and still have home games vs Navy, New Mexico, CO.State and easier roadie to UNLV .. Schedule levels up vs Army (N) and @Utah State, both very winnable revenge games .. then tougher end have Boise at home, final game @SDSU .. No sure thing loss on the schedule and I think they'll be favored in at least 10 games .. maybe all of them .. As far as conf futures go they have an excellent shot to make the champ game w the great home schedule setup, esp home game vs Boise .. hoping we see a 10-1 at some point but even if not I will def have something on these guys .. 

UNLV OVER 3.5 (CZRs) -110

This came out on Barstool at 3 and was hoping we'd see a spot with a bigger limit keep it there or some idiot book drop a 2.5, but nobody has a 3 at this point and seeing mostly 4's and 4.5's and don't expect to even see this number stick around too long .. I took UNLV Over 1.5 LY and like the Rebs to keep digging their way out of the doldrums. 1.5 did win (barely) but only after they lost what seemed like a must win match in overtime vs a pretty decent FCS foe in E.Wash in the opener last year .. From there I figured the RSW to be a gonner for sure with really just N.Mexico the only likely shot at a win, but part of the reason I took them is believing they were underrated with B2B good recruiting classes and would likely get better as the ssn progressed, maybe even find another upset .. And wallah they ended up taking down N.Mexico and Hawaii pretty easily .. The really promising thing was how close they played a bunch of others, Frenso State, UTSA, Utah State, SJSU and SDSU all within 1 score and a couple within 4 points .. and those games weren't faux-close, Fresno St needed 29 in H2 to barely escape with a late TD .. SDSU got a late TD too in a total dog fight ..  

The bad news is their all everything RB Charles Williams is out and he ended up getting the LAAARGE bulk of the carries and production .. top receiver out too .. But they bring back substantially everything else and while the couple losses will be missed THE BIG PICTURE here is they really weren't good or consistent on offense cycling thru 3 QB's, couple of them freshmen, on a young team with new coaches looking more to the future than success in the moment .. ironically tate martell was the 4th QB and only got 6 attempts lol ..  the two Freshmen Brumfield and Friel are both back and we get Harrison Bailey coming in from Tennessee .. last real action was in '20 and very limited but hit 70% against SEC competition and just very unlikely we see a totally inept QB position again and that in itself would be a huge offensive bump .. and otherwise its a team that goes from little experience to quite a bit and there's decent momentum around the program between the new stadium, good recruiting, ret production and some xfer grabs. Thats a good profile for a team that just needs to start putting complete games together and considering they won 2 and were fairly close in 6 other games its not a stretch to expect the cookie to crumble the other way a few times this year .. 

Besides hoping for cookie crumbles we also have a pretty decent schedule to hit this RSW starting with easier FCS team in Idaho State, a real far cry from FCS Juggernaut Eastern Wash .. and instead of having ASU and Iowa State early on we get @Cal and a homer vs N.Texas .. Eagles are on my radar to maybe build on the improvement they found late last season but its still great shot for a Rebs win at home .. Gunna be solid favs vs New Mexico at home who is likely still the worst team in the conference (and that's really saying something this year) .. And close out the year on a roadie to Hawaii and big finale at home vs rival Nevada.. I have Rebs as at least a slight edge in all 3 of those and wouldn't surprise me if its more than slight by game week .. and I don't think we're out on a limb expecting at least one surprise win this year, Utah State or SJSU are possible candidates for that .. They gotta win a few games but the prospects are wayyy better IMO this year with 4 I expect them to be favs in and 2 more shots beyond that .. LY my read was 2 slight favs and possibly pull one upset for a 3rd shot at a win and they ended up being competitive in 8 and half of that was pretty good competition so def a team worth taking another shot on .. 

BRIDGE PRE-SSN ROUNDUP!!!.. think I got em all.. 

BRIDGE PLAYS:
TULSA -1 @ WYOMING
UTAH @ FLORIDA OVER 52.5
UTAH -1 @ UCLA  (GOY)

SMALLER:
VANDY -3.5 @ HAWAII
WYOMING @ ILLINOIS -9 
CO.STATE +30 @ MICHIGAN
W.KENTUCKY -7.5 @ HAWAII
C.MICHIGAN +19 @ OK.STATE
TEXAS STATE +10 @ NEVADA
C.MICHIGAN @ OK.ST UNDER 59.5
UTAH @ FLORIDA OVER 52.5
L'VILLE @ CUSE UNDER 59.5
LSU @ ARKANSAS -2 (GOY)
OLE MISS -7.5 @ GA TECH (GOY)
FLA. STATE +11.5 @ MIAMI (GOY)
S.CAROLINA +17.5 @ CLEM (GOY)
WASH @ WASH STATE +1.5 (GOY)
MISS STATE +7 @ OLE MISS (GOY)
MINNESOTA +11.5 @ WISCO (GOY)
WASH STATE +15.5 @ WISCO (GOY)

REG SSN WINS:
SMU OVER 6.5 -100 (CZR)
TULSA OVER 5 -115 (CZR)
UNLV OVER 3.5 -110 (CZR)
UTAH OVER 8.5 +100 (FAN)
KANSAS OVER 2 -125 (CZR)
PURDUE OVER 7 -110 (CZR)
MISSOURI OVER 5 +115 (CZR)
AIR FORCE OVER 7.5 -125 (CZR)
TENNESSEE OVER 7.5 -105 (CZR)
VANDERBILT OVER 2 +112 (BAR)
COLO STATE OVER 4.5 -113 (BAR)
WASH STATE OVER 4.5 -125 (CZR)
WASH STATE OVER 5.5 +140 (FAN)
GEORGIA TECH OVER 3 -125 (CZR)
COASTAL UNDER 9.5 -113 (BAR)
WISCONSIN UNDER 9 -115 (CZR)
UTAH STATE UNDER 9 -125 (BAR)
LOUISIANA UNDER 10 -143 (BAR)
APP STATE UNDER 9.5 -113 (BAR)
WYOMING UNDER 5.5 +100 (BAR)
COLORADO UNDER 3.5 -110 (FAN)
CLEMSON UNDER 10.5 +110 (CZR)

CONF FUTURES:
NC STATE ACC CHAMP 12-1 (CZR)
IOWA STATE B12 CHAMP 25-1 (CZR)
WASH STATE PAC CHAMP 100-1 (BOL)
WASH STATE PAC CHAMPS 150-1 (CZR)
VIRGINIA TECH ACC CHAMPS 150-1 (CZR)

HEISMANs:
CAM RISING 90-1 (BAS)
CAM WARD 150-1 (FAN)
MAX JOHNSON 80-1 (FAN)
JORDAN ADDISON 100-1 (BAS)
JAXSON SMITH NINJA 50-1 (BAS)
ANTHONY RICHARDSON 50-1 (BAS)

NATTY:
GEORGIA +475 (BOL)
TEXAS A&M 30-1 (FAN)

Great work Brother 

Tempted to tail on a few of those RSW and longer shot conference futures ...

Really appreciate all the time you take handicapping and posting here 

Sweep your slate 

SDSU NEWS::: .. EEK

More bad news for the Mountain West .. 5 SDSU players were accursed of a pretty awful rape situation involving an unconscious minor last October... LA Times has the main story on it and other outlets disseminating quickly .. obvi we want to know the ramifications including who donnit yet apparently even with the police report and everyone on the team knowing all about they sure are shy about telling anyone .. articles seem more/less focused on whether police and institutions may have brushed these accusations under the rug in the heat of a good season which of course has to be looked into TOO .....  They do have a quote from someone who was 'scared to be identified' who mentioned one players name and said it was 1 Sr and 4 Freshman .. Think its a safe bet that the delays in discovering the story are quite similar to the reasons nobody is interested in mentioning who donnit: nobody gettin elected in cali paradin this one around .. I'd go ahead and rule out those duke guys, the UVA frat guys, or the Stanford swim guy at this point .. not sure we can rule out the girls swim team just yet given all the circumstantial evidence .. 

Anyway another tragedy wrapped in hushy shushy cover up nobody allowed to talk about .. And man-o-man could this turn into a Baylor situation real quick, and rachet that up more given the current environment .. I don't think anyone in sports media would be bothered by blowing up a school admin with these kinds of allegations nowadays .. For our purposes I'd obvi check on those SDSU RSW's seeing 8.5 and seeing 7.5 on the other end I'd go under 8.5 if I wasnt limited on RSW's at Barstool .. And its possible this opens up the 'West' side of the division, Fresno was already a HUGE odds on fav and likely a sure thing to make the champ game .. at +240 they are already close to that .. 

SAN JOSE STATE MW CHAMPS 25-1 (CZR)

With all that said above in the SDSU news department I like the prospects of a bigger dog fighting for the West Side of the division .. Its not a big bet I'm keeping my eyes open we could very well be finding better odds as more MW futures drop but Caesars has been consistently the best this pre-ssn so taking something on it from them now .. 

SJSU has full coaching continuity from the covid champ year and defense wasn't terrible last year good run stopping .. Offense was SUPER DOG SH!t and that could be remedied in a big way with Chevon Cordiero xferring in from Hawaii along with proven receiving targets Elijah Cooks and Justin Lockheart .. Cooks got injured again 3 games in LY but if healthy he's the answer replacing NFL caliber TE Derrick Deese .. SJ didn't have anyone nearly on the level at QB or WR of these xfers but bring back substantially all their other targets and couple of them were decent contributors on the '20 covid champ team.. it seems QB's landing ~50% last year = nobody noticing they could have a decent enough unit .. I count 5 good rec targets and likely a much better situation for Cordiero who is off a down year w a down team at Hawaii but is a legit dual threat 500+ designed run yds last year.. we wish they could sign another RB for depth after losing their main guy LY but 2 backups were decent and just feels like a situation where the whole offense can pull off a big surprise 180 .. 

Defense returns 70% of the snaps and the real run stoppers which carried the D LY are all back and the departures were mostly in the 2-deep. Every unit survives pretty well and we're getting big enough odds that we can xx our fingers they find much better traction in the secondary which does bring back 3 / their top 5 snap guys and 10/14 who played LY .. If they can get back on their feet the big almost for sure must win showdown is a roadie at Fresno State who will be off a big game @Boise .. tall order, yes but if the improvements are there that we expect then they are maybe better priced at 8 or 10-1, not bigger long shots .. 

@DoubleUp4Life

No Prob brotherrrr glad someone is checkin em out .. def grittin my teeth pushing some decent money month in advance w no preview support but I'm not sour on any of them .. yet lol .. and even if some of these don't appear to be all that strong later on I think we're at least gunna be holding the best hooks n odds on most of these come kickoff barring some major injuries etc .... And some of these jerkey books' put out openers that have moved considerably. Already hedged part of my Utah State Under 9 w an Over 7. Funny feeling that even w SP+ showing 50% ret pro Aggies could still make things interesting again  .. 

Good luck buddy look forward to your MAC ATTACK plans .. 

Amazing work brother! Love the read!!

Nice work Fam 

Read this and instantly logged in to tail for $50 ......Already down to +1400 here at Seneca Buffalo ...It was just +2000 , 2 days ago....

TROY RSW OVER 5.5 -115 (CZR)

This is a surprise pick I wasn't expecting to make. I liked Troy last year because the D was getting more stout in 2020 but it really didn't pan out all that great. The D front was not bad with multiple sack masters and a decent run stop unit at 3.5/carry, but the secondary seemed to play fine and just let up a big play TD. That and the offense that seemed like it would be more potent kinda crapped out with a lower yds / carry and pedestrian pass numbers. They ended winning 5 games last year but there was a low ceiling, only coming vs FCS, So.Miss, GA.So, Tex St, SO.Bama .. not the strongest group they did play tough vs Liberty and Coastal but lost to ULM by 2 TD's .. woof..

G5's are always tough to evaluate and I expected to pass on their RSW number assuming it would be around 4-6 or so. But I got my digital Phil Steele in front of me and he appears to be offering a really strong stamp of approval on these guys, much more than the general fluff we're used to both putting them on the most improved list and 2nd in their division behind Louisiana. So safe to say he thinks the ingredients I was seeing a year ago are gunna start baking this year in a considerable way. And I'm gunna ride his opinion on that because it does seem like a few likely improvements combined with what we liked already could send these guys a long way. 

All that said I do have my concerns, new OC Joe Craddock was last as an OC at Arkansas in '18/19, and that was quite a diff Hogs team than the one we know today. We are also kinda taking it on faith that the very high ret production levels = solid improvement on this offense generally, esp the Oline and in the secondary. But those pieces are much easier to develop as a young team turns into veterans. There is some exciting news w the change in HC, Jon Sumrall was DC at Kentucky and talk about a group of constant out-performers the last few years. He was also the LB's coach at Troy a few years back turning the team around from 3 wins in '15 to 9 wins the next year and then winning the conference in '17.. much of this was on the backs of a great defense they built from pre-portal era transfers .. but they already have alot of the right guys there now. They also get the new DC coming over from Army and between him and the crew he inherits I really like the prospects of an aggressive and complete defense.

The schedule also shapes up well for at least 6 wins, FCS Bama A&M, S.Miss, @S.Bama, Texas St, ULM and @Ark State seem very winnable. A few of them had a real meltdown last year and should see improvement and S.Bama could actually make a stride this year into being decent. But I don't see anything about them that messes much with us getting to 6 wins. We also have non-cons @W.Kentucky and I want to see what the Hills can do vs a tough scrappy defense this year. Things could be much tougher without Zappe, their OC and a gaggle of their WR's esp if they can't do better than 4 yds/carry again. We also have Army at home and at least we'll have a D that knows the option from G.Southern LY and will learn what to do having Army's DC on board this year. Even some of the big wigs in the conference seem a little more vulnerable than usual. App State, Coastal and ULL all had massive returning production in '20 and last year but there's alot to replace on each. Just alot of ways they can make a bowl with even just a little improvement.

SOUTH ALABAMA SUN BELT CHAMPS 50-1

This play like many others is us taking a stab at S.Alabama being able to make the champ game and hedge out from there. The odds in my view say take a chance on it given the improvement trajectory over the last two years and they have a schedule that could potentially get them there. The first thing to know is there has been a pretty HUGE imbalance between the SBC divisions and that's even more pronounced this year. East with App St, Coastal and now Marshall, G-State and even the likely bottom half is pretty good with Old Dominion surprising last year and bringing in James Madison. That side is pretty loaded. East has one bohemouth in Louisiana and then we got Troy, S.Miss, So.Bama, Tex St, Ark St and ULM. I'm hoping to land better odds with Troy, I see about 10-1 out there now which could be worth a stab. But everyone has the same problem on that side, getting by ULL and maybe even surviving a tie scenario. S.Bama gets Troy at home and ULL on the road but their non-con and div crossover schedule is really weak: FCS Nichols, CMU, LATech, non-cons and pull GA-So and Old Dominon from the West .. it's not unfathomable that S.Bama takes a real stride this year and is favored in 9 games this year and maybe land themselves in a 3-way tie if they can pull one upset. It is a little far fetched but so are the odds. 

If they were to pull off a divisional win we'd have to assume a pretty solid improvement in their level of play. Its possible that nobody from the other big dogs from the other division, App and Coastal and Marshall, are true G-5 DOMINATORS this year. Very possible there's a fight for the division on that side and maybe a situation where a team like GA-State sneaks in but either way I don't think we'll be totally hedging the farm if we can get So.Bama in the game... maybe end up 15 or 20-1 if we can get there... odds say take a stab.. 

SOUTH ALABAMA OVER 5 -120 (CZR)

As noted above, I don't think its too much of a stretch for SO.Bama to make a small stride and be favored in most of their games this year. They lose the big WR Tolbert and QB Jake Bentley but they bring alot back including Carter Bradley from Toledo and still have Desmond Trotter in the depth chart. Both are capable and offense success really depends more getting their rush numbers up, just 110 yds / game last year and we have to hope OC Major Applewhite can get more traction year 2. The D was pretty solid last year and we can count on HC Kane Womack and his DC to stay strong and not impossible they end up contending for one of the better D's in the division, feel pretty good they keep rolling. 

I dove into the schedule in the last post and I don't think it takes much improvement for them to be favored in 9 games this year.. whether its a few less doesn't matter the point is they'll have alot of shots on goal to get 6 wins and I think its VERY unlikely this RSW loses with them only hitting 4 or fewer .. S.Bama won 5 last year and coulda had a few more w just an insanely close 2 pt loss vs Louisiana and then went to OT vs Texas State and Coastal Carolina, and the Chants had McCall back in the lineup .. its a stretch to call for an upset vs Troy or Louisiana but I don't think there's a whole lot we can say that is totally out of the question in the Sun West division this year... seems alot is up for grabs and S.Bama has 16 starters back and they landed quite a P5 transfers in the door and decent moment in the program coming off B2B years of improvement and solid group of coaches. 

Nice read Bridge1!  I hope you have a successful season!  

@LonghornHoosier

Thx buddy, you too .. its always a case of "WE'LL SEE!!!" lol ..  

UTEP RSW OVER 5.5 +115 (CZRs)

Was hoping books would drop a 5 out there at normal odds, can get 5 at -125 at Barstool but gunna run with the +odds this time .. UTEP has a great trajectory with their coaches going from below the basement to competing with a few teams in 2020 to surprising everyone with 7 wins last year then duking it out pretty well with Fresno State in the bowl game .. that and they missed on a couple games last year going negative turnovers vs N.Texas and really gutty near comeback vs FAU .. and that's what we're betting on a gutty team on the rise with actual expectations this year for the first time in YEARS! .. They miss their big 2 WR's especially Cowing 1300 yds hit the portal .. if he was back I think books would lean them much closer to making a bowl. The good news is most everything else is back including Hardison who for only a 55% shooter made the most of his completions w 18 TD's .. 4 other WR's are back with 15+ yds / reception and their 1-2 punch at RB and OL and 80% of the snaps of a D that took a big step in the right direction last year.. all the losses come in the secondary but retain 3 starters and had a good number injured in the unit last year they get back so between injuries and newcomers the depth should be really solid. Miners also have the coaching and special teams continuity .. Woulda been nice to see them land a few guys from the portal but the pieces are definitely in place .. can't call them UTSA of this year but its a strong profile ..  

This is another team I wanted to see what Phil had to say first and sure enough Phil got'em pegged to finish #3 in the conference .. recall its no divisions for CUSA this year with only 11 teams this year. The conf/div order is the universal grading mechanism for preview mags compiled by stassn.com every year and Phil devotes a whole page to showing off his dominant #1 ranking for the last 27 years using stassn's ratings .. You'll notice Phil always has a fluffy positive spin added to basically every paragraph in his team breakdown page. When the true value of the mag is your relationships and access to coaching staffs you learn to play nice in the team page. But when it comes to the mag's ranking and reputation of dominance over the other mags Phil doesn't have time to 'fluff' around .. It certainly woulda been safer to put UTEP behind the more trendy W.Kentucky, N.Texas or F.Atlantic teams so seeing the Miners way up there at #3 is a good sign for us.. 

Also have to like the schedule, already a tossup at home vs N.Tex according to the books .. likely wins vs NMSU and roadie to N.Mexico and alot more shots on goal in conf w/out UAB or W.KY on the schedule .. @Char, @LaTech, FAU, MID-T, @Rice, FIU. I count 9 games they should be competitive in if not decent favs. They will be decent dogs vs Boise and @UTSA but either of them could have a bad night. recall UTEP battled Fresno pretty close LY going -2 in TO's in the bowl game and both teams came to play .. Besides the schedule they should also get a regression bump after going -10 in TO's last year .. they were net -TO's in 8 games and positive in 4 so there's also statistical gravity pointing toward an improved record .. 

I think this ends up maybe laying odds around 6, there's just not alot of good to say about most of their schedule and getting to another bowl and beyond seems likely to me .. Wouldn't fault anyone for laying odds -125 for RSW 5 either, seems realllllly tough for them to only win 4 this year without some really big injuries and turnover turmoil .. 

UTEP CUSA CHAMPS 33-1 (BAR)

Another long shot we hope to make the champ game and maybe hedge out from there.. CUSA looks like a pretty weak league overall and UTEP has a really fortunate conference schedule missing 2 of the big boys UAB and W.Kentucky .. The road to a champ game doesnt have many tough games esp in conference, maybe the opener vs N.Texas and FAU and get both at home .. They also get 2 well placed bye weeks around around mid and late season due to playing in week zero. It all could come down to a finale with UTSA on the road and if thats a must win for the RR's then that'll be a tall order for the Miners. But its not inconceivable for Miners to take another solid step this year and show up to the finale 9-2 overall, 7-0 in the conference.. at that point they might not even need to beat UTSA but even if that is a must win a lot can happen on a team from the beginning to end of the season .. I wouldn't count them out pulling a stunner in that game esp if UTSA is already out of contention which is def a possibility.

If we run a quick sim on the season you'll see the big boys UTSA, W.KY and UAB all play each other and its possible non-cons will be a factor at some point. UTSA drew Houston, @Army, @Texas .. Hilltoppers have @Indy and @Auburn and a likely much better Troy team .. UAB is @Liberty and @LSU .. Miners have 2 likely losses @OU and Boise but also NMSU and N.Mexico .. All that being considered it's not difficult to draw up a path where UTEP could sneak in the champ game if they can get that 7-1 conf record ... 

I'm not as worried about other CUSA up starts, N.Texas plays so many tough road games in conf you can count them out unless they are a total juggernaut this year .. FAU might have a decent shot if they are 'much better' but none of the odds or outlooks of either team really justify taking the odds being offered, 10 or 15-1 .. At 33-1 UTEP is def worth a shot .. 

Fantastic work Brother 

Tailing for $61 ( maybe more later )

Yeah Stanford is just on an epic slide from where they were .. Think Shaw just not liking to change it up with the coordinators, good ones gunna leave and invariably you end up with duds ... McKee seemed okay and maybe decent WR/TE's but man yeah its a conference thats full of problems but they're a total outlier .. 

We'll see on Wash State I'm really hoping my read is right on that one ... Can't believe Phil has em 6th in the division but yeah suppose its entirely possible they can't stick the landing for us, maybe be too many little things not there that add up quick ... hopefully that QB makes everything go off like a stick of dynamite and we're laughing all the way to DA BANK!!!

Colorado looks garbage every analysis seems to get worse .. just foolin around with the roster numbers I have most positions pretty near crush depth, think we see quite a few RS or true Freshman get in games this year .. do have some size on the OL/DL, RJ Sneed and Alex Fontenot .. just doesn't seem like that's gunna carry them too far .. 

Good luck!

MACTION TIME .. 

OHIO 16-1 (PTS BET)
AKRON 200-1 (BAR)
BOWLING GREEN 120-1 (BET RIV)

Its not big bucks on any of the big odds just squeezed in what they'd allow, about 30-40 bucks, more than enough to have fun ..  150 on Ohio.. all teams in the east so yeah betting against myself on these but we're hoping for one of these to have a big turnaround season that the models can't predict. Theres something to like about each Akron could be a different team because well, it is a different team ..  new coach, maybe new QB in Albany's Undercuffler and a boatload of xfers expecting to fill in starting spots .. thats in addition to 16 returning starters from the actual team, many filling in the 2-deep .. good signs .. BG made a huge leap from the 7th layer of Hell last year, Bill C's model has them basically a home field advantage away from being 2nd in the conference and they have a great home schedule in the division to maybe get there .. Ohio needs a big leap to be in contention but the program should get back on its feet, 9 starters back on D is a great start w so few in the MAC playing any defense .. Kurtis Rourke wasn't so bad last year but very possible the xfer Parker Navarro from UCF takes that spot there was some excitement for him w the Knights but he was maybe 4th QB this year w how many they got, could be a real wildcard .. My numbers also say Ohio is one of the riches rosters in the MAC this year, ton of good size at OL too .. I show Kent St, Buffalo and Miami all having some level of weak roster, lotta xfers out ..

You know your division is weak when the mags are not only giving Miami the credit they deserve but leapfrogging them right to the top spot in the East .. Nothing looks impossible, have a good year get a little lucky and not impossible to see Ohio or one of the huge conf underdogs to step up and claim a spot in the champ game.. Obviously the hedges will be trimmed rather short if that happens but we'll def have a decent payday if any of them make it .. Really quite impossible to take Miami or Kent under 8-1 with Toledo and N.ILL the likely opponents .. not opposed to taking a stab at Buffalo at 20-1 but it does seem like the portal gutted them pretty hard and think it'll be a tough year, not the profile I'm trying to jump on but again .. its da MAC .. 

Other side of the conference just doesn't have anything juicy enough we got C.Mich, Toledo, W.Mich, from 3 to 7-1 .. E.Mich 10-1 isin't a sexy enough number .. Ball State could be really bad, one of the lowest ret pro %'s you'll find and for 18-1 its a sure thing pass .. I don't even see N.Illinois' odds up anymore, they