Good resource is PFF to see historicals .. costs something but how much time does it need to save hunting stuff down before it becomes worth it ya know .. I didn't pull 2020 but here's '21 for the guys mentioned in the article .. name / games / tot snaps ..
Beach 12 766 Nelson 12 708 Bortolini 8 268 Furtney 8 175 Brown 7 70
I'd pay more attn to Wisco's coaching situation .. Leonard was the OC/OL for a while now and always has these good OL's, even the backups usually pretty solid PFF Run grade .. pass not so good .. Engram comes in as OC/QB's coach, never done that before .. Looks like the plan was to move Bostad from ILB's to OL / Run coord this year .. bio says he was 20 yr offense coach before Wisco so maybe a good move .. they brought in Sheridan from Air Force to be the ILB coach but he's already gone .. NCAA violations from AF .. So need to move Bostad back and find a new OL's/RC or a new ILB coach, either way sounds like the kinda mess they're not used to having .. so much of a 'good OL' is in the blocking scheme that's why Wisco can take these 3 star guys and have one of the better OL's every year esp w 3 new guys and jumping positions .. the one guy has diabetes .. not saying it will go south just that it can pretty quick if OL is not well coordinated .. would keep yer eye on that coach sitch for sure ..
Good resource is PFF to see historicals .. costs something but how much time does it need to save hunting stuff down before it becomes worth it ya know .. I didn't pull 2020 but here's '21 for the guys mentioned in the article .. name / games / tot snaps ..
Beach 12 766 Nelson 12 708 Bortolini 8 268 Furtney 8 175 Brown 7 70
I'd pay more attn to Wisco's coaching situation .. Leonard was the OC/OL for a while now and always has these good OL's, even the backups usually pretty solid PFF Run grade .. pass not so good .. Engram comes in as OC/QB's coach, never done that before .. Looks like the plan was to move Bostad from ILB's to OL / Run coord this year .. bio says he was 20 yr offense coach before Wisco so maybe a good move .. they brought in Sheridan from Air Force to be the ILB coach but he's already gone .. NCAA violations from AF .. So need to move Bostad back and find a new OL's/RC or a new ILB coach, either way sounds like the kinda mess they're not used to having .. so much of a 'good OL' is in the blocking scheme that's why Wisco can take these 3 star guys and have one of the better OL's every year esp w 3 new guys and jumping positions .. the one guy has diabetes .. not saying it will go south just that it can pretty quick if OL is not well coordinated .. would keep yer eye on that coach sitch for sure ..
Rudolph left as OC and in comes Engram. To get Engram Chryst offered him OC, am sure he gets help by committee. Engram brings WR coaching exp and Wisky needs it.
Fairly sure Bostad not moving from OL coach. He has a good track record.
Yeah, that OL caught my attention, not much depth. Really only two good experienced in Beach and Nelson. Bostad should be an improvement.
Rudolph left as OC and in comes Engram. To get Engram Chryst offered him OC, am sure he gets help by committee. Engram brings WR coaching exp and Wisky needs it.
Fairly sure Bostad not moving from OL coach. He has a good track record.
Yeah, that OL caught my attention, not much depth. Really only two good experienced in Beach and Nelson. Bostad should be an improvement.
Yeah I wouldn't call anything in the article a 'great soundbite' .. I'll give Engram the benefit of the doubt he knows what he's doing and maybe gets there eventually but call me crazy they take an NFL WR coach and make him OC/QB coach and we think Mertz and a new rec corps and kinda inexperienced OL jumbling things around is gunna be more effective I just don't think so .. and even if Bostad is not new to coaching OL's he is new to coaching this OL .. seems like alot of jumbling for a 9 win team .. I like where my money's at...
Yeah I wouldn't call anything in the article a 'great soundbite' .. I'll give Engram the benefit of the doubt he knows what he's doing and maybe gets there eventually but call me crazy they take an NFL WR coach and make him OC/QB coach and we think Mertz and a new rec corps and kinda inexperienced OL jumbling things around is gunna be more effective I just don't think so .. and even if Bostad is not new to coaching OL's he is new to coaching this OL .. seems like alot of jumbling for a 9 win team .. I like where my money's at...
Oh yeah I believe your on the right side with your wagers here. My guess is Chryst is taking a bigger role in offensive play calling. The O-line looks to be a weak link.
Oh yeah I believe your on the right side with your wagers here. My guess is Chryst is taking a bigger role in offensive play calling. The O-line looks to be a weak link.
Couple more Heisman shots .. Already mentioned the Cam Ward 150-1, really only interested in the longer shots this year .. I strongly suspect it'll be Stroud but for 5-1 or less that's approaching insanity .. I thought Spencer 'Sure Thing' Rattler's odds were ridiculously low last year at 7-1.. Only sure thing was that he'd start week 1..
I do think Max Johnson is really underrated and for good reason, stepping in for an LSU team that melted down 2 years in a row .. RB's, OL's, WR's dropping out left and right on him, nearly the worst in conf games sacks given up last year almost 4/game and hurried / hit a ton, receivers dropping a ton of passes .. 6 drops in that A&M game last year, all coulda/shoulda been complete and still found a way to win that little run game help .. and you see some of the dimes he can throw while getting absolutely BLOWN UP and its not hard to imagine a real star if he has A&M's sack rate which was one of the best the last 2 yrs .. also just saying .. watch out for A&M this year ..
Here's all my Heisman action in order of money / like on each one .. small bucks, maybe a hundo on the top 3, smaller on last 3 .. If its not Stroud or Young we're really picking a rabbit out of a hat but I can envision a path for each of these guys .. Def shop around too, very possible to find 20X or better odds just comparing a few shops ..
HEISMANs
CAM WARD 150-1 (FAN) MAX JOHNSON 80-1 (FAN) CAM RISING 90-1 (BAS) ANTHONY RICHARDSON 50-1 (BAS) JAXSON SMITH NINJA 50-1 (BAS) JORDAN ADDISON 100-1 (BAS)
Couple more Heisman shots .. Already mentioned the Cam Ward 150-1, really only interested in the longer shots this year .. I strongly suspect it'll be Stroud but for 5-1 or less that's approaching insanity .. I thought Spencer 'Sure Thing' Rattler's odds were ridiculously low last year at 7-1.. Only sure thing was that he'd start week 1..
I do think Max Johnson is really underrated and for good reason, stepping in for an LSU team that melted down 2 years in a row .. RB's, OL's, WR's dropping out left and right on him, nearly the worst in conf games sacks given up last year almost 4/game and hurried / hit a ton, receivers dropping a ton of passes .. 6 drops in that A&M game last year, all coulda/shoulda been complete and still found a way to win that little run game help .. and you see some of the dimes he can throw while getting absolutely BLOWN UP and its not hard to imagine a real star if he has A&M's sack rate which was one of the best the last 2 yrs .. also just saying .. watch out for A&M this year ..
Here's all my Heisman action in order of money / like on each one .. small bucks, maybe a hundo on the top 3, smaller on last 3 .. If its not Stroud or Young we're really picking a rabbit out of a hat but I can envision a path for each of these guys .. Def shop around too, very possible to find 20X or better odds just comparing a few shops ..
HEISMANs
CAM WARD 150-1 (FAN) MAX JOHNSON 80-1 (FAN) CAM RISING 90-1 (BAS) ANTHONY RICHARDSON 50-1 (BAS) JAXSON SMITH NINJA 50-1 (BAS) JORDAN ADDISON 100-1 (BAS)
DAYYYUM .. Week 0/1 lines up at BOL / DK .. looks like nearly a full slate .. even got the little teams on there ..
SMALLER
VANDY -3.5 / HAWAII W.KENTUCKY -7.5 / HAWAII
Real small .. This is strictly a Hawaii fade after a total meltdown end of last year and planned to just hit Hawaii wherever the lines were .. might get better or worse if we wait but I think at some point in pre-ssn both lines could conceivably jump .. tough to imagine Vandy playing like last year with all the injuries and ton of production back and this really is a must win game after epic loss to ETSU at home LY .. W.KY might be getting too much love for coaches / players that have left and no doubt a team that can swing huge up/down one ssn to the next but we're betting on functionally decent and that should get the job done here .... Haw lotta guys talking smack about Graham and the Haw program before he got fired end of LY .. Its great they brought in Hawaii Hero Timmy Chang to right the ship but he's jumping from WR position coach at Nevada (good job Tim!) to HC and ton of guys left all the really good prospects and a scramble to get coaches set up, etc .. I don't think they have a legit QB slated at this point and just s situation where it could be alot worse to start off because the moves they're making now really have to have patience and calculated for the future not opening week ... I don't think early trips to Hawaii provide an especially strong HFA either, Vandy's 1st game and W.KY will be off Austin Peay in week 0 doesn't make for a tricky spot ..
DAYYYUM .. Week 0/1 lines up at BOL / DK .. looks like nearly a full slate .. even got the little teams on there ..
SMALLER
VANDY -3.5 / HAWAII W.KENTUCKY -7.5 / HAWAII
Real small .. This is strictly a Hawaii fade after a total meltdown end of last year and planned to just hit Hawaii wherever the lines were .. might get better or worse if we wait but I think at some point in pre-ssn both lines could conceivably jump .. tough to imagine Vandy playing like last year with all the injuries and ton of production back and this really is a must win game after epic loss to ETSU at home LY .. W.KY might be getting too much love for coaches / players that have left and no doubt a team that can swing huge up/down one ssn to the next but we're betting on functionally decent and that should get the job done here .... Haw lotta guys talking smack about Graham and the Haw program before he got fired end of LY .. Its great they brought in Hawaii Hero Timmy Chang to right the ship but he's jumping from WR position coach at Nevada (good job Tim!) to HC and ton of guys left all the really good prospects and a scramble to get coaches set up, etc .. I don't think they have a legit QB slated at this point and just s situation where it could be alot worse to start off because the moves they're making now really have to have patience and calculated for the future not opening week ... I don't think early trips to Hawaii provide an especially strong HFA either, Vandy's 1st game and W.KY will be off Austin Peay in week 0 doesn't make for a tricky spot ..
Moved a couple more for ya .. small bucks on big lines ..
SMALLER
C.MICHIGAN +19 / OK.STATE CO.STATE +30 / MICHIGAN
Like Mcelwain to always show up, one of the few MACs that can always run the ball and play defense and it shows vs his big P5 non-con games, really impressed everyone in the bowl game and nice show out vs Mizzoo last year.. even played Miami right to the wire back in '19 .. OK.State should be very strong again but last couple years really dick around with Tulsa and most every other team, lotta trouble scoring esp in H2 of games all year .. Pokes also got a big game on deck vs ASU .. CMU got pretty injured up pre-ssn LY and has a couple guys to like this year .. +19 seems to be just relying a bit too much on LY's numbers might be a bit much here and when we consider what ATS monsters the Pokes were last year this feels good for a smaller bet .. would consider bigger if we see a 21+ ..
CO.State getting a monster line and I know Mich really likes to dig into these little teams at home but I don't think CO.State getting Norvell and staff over, and being a pretty attractive landing spot in the portal means you just give them 30 points when we haven't seen them yet even to a big home run hitter like Michigan .. And kindof a spot where you think Harbaugh needs to figure out what's on his roster and see what plays work w the new coordinators .. not as much a spot where I'd RAM all my sure thing successful plays down the RAMs throat all game.. Mich covering some ridiculous 10-2 ATS mark last year def also means they'll be easy to tack points onto for a big home opener and generally looking for fade spots w them so 30 in the opener perfect for small .. hope it keeps swinging higher maybe hit it for more ..
Moved a couple more for ya .. small bucks on big lines ..
SMALLER
C.MICHIGAN +19 / OK.STATE CO.STATE +30 / MICHIGAN
Like Mcelwain to always show up, one of the few MACs that can always run the ball and play defense and it shows vs his big P5 non-con games, really impressed everyone in the bowl game and nice show out vs Mizzoo last year.. even played Miami right to the wire back in '19 .. OK.State should be very strong again but last couple years really dick around with Tulsa and most every other team, lotta trouble scoring esp in H2 of games all year .. Pokes also got a big game on deck vs ASU .. CMU got pretty injured up pre-ssn LY and has a couple guys to like this year .. +19 seems to be just relying a bit too much on LY's numbers might be a bit much here and when we consider what ATS monsters the Pokes were last year this feels good for a smaller bet .. would consider bigger if we see a 21+ ..
CO.State getting a monster line and I know Mich really likes to dig into these little teams at home but I don't think CO.State getting Norvell and staff over, and being a pretty attractive landing spot in the portal means you just give them 30 points when we haven't seen them yet even to a big home run hitter like Michigan .. And kindof a spot where you think Harbaugh needs to figure out what's on his roster and see what plays work w the new coordinators .. not as much a spot where I'd RAM all my sure thing successful plays down the RAMs throat all game.. Mich covering some ridiculous 10-2 ATS mark last year def also means they'll be easy to tack points onto for a big home opener and generally looking for fade spots w them so 30 in the opener perfect for small .. hope it keeps swinging higher maybe hit it for more ..
Wyoming looks like a real disaster this year losing Chambers and Levi, and bring in Andrew Peasley of Utah State (2020) fame ... and in some ways he's a perfect fit for the Pokes hitting about 50% completions for his career .. Safe to say if you're bringing him in the cupboard is really bare .. RB's Valladay xfers to ASU, Titus Swen is a pretty good backup but Valliday was the legit 3 year workhorse and this year especially they could use maybe 3 or 4 quality RB's to give them 40ish rush att's. O can stall real quick if they have to rely too much on Swen .. top 2 WR's out Nailor was a stud 700 yds gunna be a star at UT .. 2nd guy out w 300 yds .. very tough for Wyo to replace 1000 yds receiving in a normal year but w the QB situation they might not have hit 1k passing this year even w those guys back .. OL has 60% of the snaps gone, Cryder and Harris good enough to land as free agents .. D loses a crap ton, Holt was a beast at DL hit the portal, top 4 edge rushers gone which was most of their DL disruption, one guy back in that group had no pressures no snaps behind him .. Lose really great LB Chat Muma to the NFL 3rd rounder .. top 3 corners, top 3 safeties out and the roster is really thin lotta trues and RS freshman gunna have a shot to crack the lineup on both sides of the ball .. Wyo did land a DB from Ole Miss with like 5 snaps last year.. team needs bodies bad ..
Tulsa does lose some good players but its more like lose a good one from each unit, not the entire unit .. they did lose their two OT's to the NFL 1st and 7th rounders and maybe biggest concern is their DL where they lose a few guys too .. but huge difference, nothing is totally gutted and we can count on Tulsa to consistently find decent replacements. Brinn back at QB, Prince and Watkins are very good RB's, Santana's a good WR and even losing a few guys on their DL the best DE and two DL's with decent production are back .. LB, CB, SAF might lose a few guys but all nothing that can't be replaced .. Brinn in first full year and can see the potential .. threw too many picks last year but threw 430 vs OSU.. and only 225 vs OK State but 70% comps vs that D, no picks .. clean up the picks this year and he'll be one of the better AAC QBs ..
This could of course lose if Tulsa makes mistakes, can happen in the altitude .. recall Mizzoo w Clem QB guy fell apart big time vs a decent Wyoming team .. Tulsa is just so much better positioned on experience, deeper roster, talent, way more likely to find legit star replacements or pull from the portal .. and they can survive injuries in fall camp way better than Pokes can.. Wyoming really can't lose anyone at this point .. Think the move is to take now because no way folks don't see the holes on Wyoming at some point and move against them, -1 much better than -4.5 or more on the road .. and Wyo plays ILL in week 0 I think it'll be more apparent what Wyoming's problems are during that game ... Always a worry a team could make a big poral grab too but of all the teams out there the chance Wyoming makes a big splash this late in the year has to be one of the lowest .. Laramie already one of the toughest places to get players to commit to if there are any other options and already pulled in a QB, have a ton of other needs .. maybe they can land on D but players esp on O are moving away not toward these guys for obvious reasons ..
Wyoming looks like a real disaster this year losing Chambers and Levi, and bring in Andrew Peasley of Utah State (2020) fame ... and in some ways he's a perfect fit for the Pokes hitting about 50% completions for his career .. Safe to say if you're bringing him in the cupboard is really bare .. RB's Valladay xfers to ASU, Titus Swen is a pretty good backup but Valliday was the legit 3 year workhorse and this year especially they could use maybe 3 or 4 quality RB's to give them 40ish rush att's. O can stall real quick if they have to rely too much on Swen .. top 2 WR's out Nailor was a stud 700 yds gunna be a star at UT .. 2nd guy out w 300 yds .. very tough for Wyo to replace 1000 yds receiving in a normal year but w the QB situation they might not have hit 1k passing this year even w those guys back .. OL has 60% of the snaps gone, Cryder and Harris good enough to land as free agents .. D loses a crap ton, Holt was a beast at DL hit the portal, top 4 edge rushers gone which was most of their DL disruption, one guy back in that group had no pressures no snaps behind him .. Lose really great LB Chat Muma to the NFL 3rd rounder .. top 3 corners, top 3 safeties out and the roster is really thin lotta trues and RS freshman gunna have a shot to crack the lineup on both sides of the ball .. Wyo did land a DB from Ole Miss with like 5 snaps last year.. team needs bodies bad ..
Tulsa does lose some good players but its more like lose a good one from each unit, not the entire unit .. they did lose their two OT's to the NFL 1st and 7th rounders and maybe biggest concern is their DL where they lose a few guys too .. but huge difference, nothing is totally gutted and we can count on Tulsa to consistently find decent replacements. Brinn back at QB, Prince and Watkins are very good RB's, Santana's a good WR and even losing a few guys on their DL the best DE and two DL's with decent production are back .. LB, CB, SAF might lose a few guys but all nothing that can't be replaced .. Brinn in first full year and can see the potential .. threw too many picks last year but threw 430 vs OSU.. and only 225 vs OK State but 70% comps vs that D, no picks .. clean up the picks this year and he'll be one of the better AAC QBs ..
This could of course lose if Tulsa makes mistakes, can happen in the altitude .. recall Mizzoo w Clem QB guy fell apart big time vs a decent Wyoming team .. Tulsa is just so much better positioned on experience, deeper roster, talent, way more likely to find legit star replacements or pull from the portal .. and they can survive injuries in fall camp way better than Pokes can.. Wyoming really can't lose anyone at this point .. Think the move is to take now because no way folks don't see the holes on Wyoming at some point and move against them, -1 much better than -4.5 or more on the road .. and Wyo plays ILL in week 0 I think it'll be more apparent what Wyoming's problems are during that game ... Always a worry a team could make a big poral grab too but of all the teams out there the chance Wyoming makes a big splash this late in the year has to be one of the lowest .. Laramie already one of the toughest places to get players to commit to if there are any other options and already pulled in a QB, have a ton of other needs .. maybe they can land on D but players esp on O are moving away not toward these guys for obvious reasons ..
Wanted to double Bridge Play against the pokes here .. hoping I'm making the right call and both win .. ILL shouldn't have a problem here handling these guys at home but I'm just less familiar with them and they lose a few guys to like too and really not totally confident in Tommy Devito we are gunna hope all his experience pays off for us .. Otherwise just same reasoning as above and games fading Hawaii .. think Wyoming and Hawaii are likely to find more trouble than usual this year and hope teams on the other end don't do the same .. not as sure with ILL so smaller it is .. still feels pretty good though ..
Wanted to double Bridge Play against the pokes here .. hoping I'm making the right call and both win .. ILL shouldn't have a problem here handling these guys at home but I'm just less familiar with them and they lose a few guys to like too and really not totally confident in Tommy Devito we are gunna hope all his experience pays off for us .. Otherwise just same reasoning as above and games fading Hawaii .. think Wyoming and Hawaii are likely to find more trouble than usual this year and hope teams on the other end don't do the same .. not as sure with ILL so smaller it is .. still feels pretty good though ..
Bobs aren't a great looking team but return a bunch of their players and the best stuff is on the offense 2-3 pretty good players in the RB/WR/OL groups and a good amount of the depth .. this is part of the reason they only recruited a handful of players this year .. lotta guys back .. But QB play last year realllly stunk and in comes The Layne Train from Ark State to save the day .. we saw the other half of Arky State's 2 pretty good QB's from 2019/20 head to Utah State last year and win the conf championship and while Ark State stunk bad last year it was a total lack of any experience or depth that really killed them, bad OL 4 sacks a game not many rec targets .. Layne Hatcher is joined by 9 other offensive xfers 4 WR's and 4 OL's and this actually looks like a pretty good situation .. can't speak highly of the Bob's D LY other than young group and have a bunch back too and a few xfers .. Big picture is this offense shouldn't have trouble staying within 10 here ..
Nevada looks to be in real bad shape personnel wise w alot of key grads and xfers, many leaving with Jay Norvell to CO.State really just see the RB room is in tact and maybe savior in Shane Illingsworth from OK State coming in .. not much else returns on O.. peep ourlads depth chart lotta empty space and I count 25% of the defense snaps returning Dom Peterson is the real headliner returning .. But its a big job for new HC Ken Wilson and OC/DC's that are moving up from position coaching ranks at Oregon and UCLA .. bottom line they shouldn't be laying 10 to anyone out of the gate and funny feeling this moves well under a TD before kickoff I'd guess 4.5 maybe lower if things really don't sound like they're coming along quickly .. Can't go bigger only because of so many various uncertainties but feel pretty good fading Nevada as a big fav this year ..
Bobs aren't a great looking team but return a bunch of their players and the best stuff is on the offense 2-3 pretty good players in the RB/WR/OL groups and a good amount of the depth .. this is part of the reason they only recruited a handful of players this year .. lotta guys back .. But QB play last year realllly stunk and in comes The Layne Train from Ark State to save the day .. we saw the other half of Arky State's 2 pretty good QB's from 2019/20 head to Utah State last year and win the conf championship and while Ark State stunk bad last year it was a total lack of any experience or depth that really killed them, bad OL 4 sacks a game not many rec targets .. Layne Hatcher is joined by 9 other offensive xfers 4 WR's and 4 OL's and this actually looks like a pretty good situation .. can't speak highly of the Bob's D LY other than young group and have a bunch back too and a few xfers .. Big picture is this offense shouldn't have trouble staying within 10 here ..
Nevada looks to be in real bad shape personnel wise w alot of key grads and xfers, many leaving with Jay Norvell to CO.State really just see the RB room is in tact and maybe savior in Shane Illingsworth from OK State coming in .. not much else returns on O.. peep ourlads depth chart lotta empty space and I count 25% of the defense snaps returning Dom Peterson is the real headliner returning .. But its a big job for new HC Ken Wilson and OC/DC's that are moving up from position coaching ranks at Oregon and UCLA .. bottom line they shouldn't be laying 10 to anyone out of the gate and funny feeling this moves well under a TD before kickoff I'd guess 4.5 maybe lower if things really don't sound like they're coming along quickly .. Can't go bigger only because of so many various uncertainties but feel pretty good fading Nevada as a big fav this year ..
Easy to be down on these guys after disappointing last year and do lose quite a few guys including most all of their high profile players. The big holes look like QB, TE w the big 2 leaving, RB w Breece da Beast getting nearly all the carries and some concern in the secondary .. the thing to like is the coaches and program are capable of putting up a contender and for all the production they lose they really don't lack for a significant number of upper classmen who've been waiting to fill in for 2 or 3 years now, not just a bunch of newbies w alot to learn .. there has not been much news out of the spring but the big wildcard of note is Hunter Dekkars at QB .. sounds like he could be really legit and maybe a guy that can get the ball down the field quicker and a little less reliant on putting together those loooong drives than Purdy would go on .. that style of play made Cyclone competitive as underdogs for years but alot more dogfighting than they shoulda had as favs .. last year they lost six games by an average of 6 pts including the bowl game w Clemson .. worst was a 10 pt loss to Iowa and basically handed the Hawkeyes 13 points free off turnovers .. another TD off a short field .. out-yarded baylor 460 to 280 .. lose by 2 .. late fumble at WV at 2 yd line .. really not a bad loss in the bunch and def a team that needs to tweak the play calling and get a little luckier and cookie crumbles there way ALOT last year and we're not nearly as down on these guys over a kinda dud season ..
The thing to like about picking longer odds in the B12 this year is there doesn't seem to be a sure thing once again and alot of teams have their own set of problems and problematic profiles .. OU is one that could actually be a dud with all the guys leaving .. nice to get Venables and Gabriel at QB but the D is unlikely to shore itself up right away, could be alot of shootouts and a few don't go their way .. we don't know enough about UT could be really tough w Ewers / Robinson but D could just keep teams hanging around too long too .. both of them will get everyone's best parting shot this year as they jet to the SEC and losses could add up again .. OK.State and Baylor project a little worse this year even if not a steep drop off .. I def like Baylor of anyone to keep the show going because of their great coaching but again no sure thing .. K-State, WVA don't sound like contenders, T-Tech might have real probs adjusting to Kitley's boom or bust style of play, spring game was a disaster on offense for them .. TCU off a total meltdown, long way to being a contender and lose Zach Evans .. we'll see .. I actually do think Kansas will keep getting better ...
I think very good chance to at least be in the running late in the year to make a title game past the OU/UT stint .. and Cyclones with just the 4 roadies this year is HUGE .. Kans, UT, OK.ST, TCU .. nothing easy and does stink getting TCU roadie at year end since they could improve dramatically over the season.. but same goes for the cyclones time to develop for a likely 2 must win roadies toward year end .. the 5 home conf games are great w Bay, K-St, OU, WV, T-Tech and could reasonably win all 3 non-cons to give them an edge in a 3-way tie ... I don't think Iowa will improve w some of their big losses and worst case might be 2-1 w FCS SEMO and Ohio .. feels pretty good .. so does RSW 6.5 but if we're gunna take these guys might as well get paid, not lay odds ... ceasers comes thru again w best odds, 25-1, seeing mostly around 12 or 15's elsewhere.. I think their odds shrink down to that range before too long ..
Easy to be down on these guys after disappointing last year and do lose quite a few guys including most all of their high profile players. The big holes look like QB, TE w the big 2 leaving, RB w Breece da Beast getting nearly all the carries and some concern in the secondary .. the thing to like is the coaches and program are capable of putting up a contender and for all the production they lose they really don't lack for a significant number of upper classmen who've been waiting to fill in for 2 or 3 years now, not just a bunch of newbies w alot to learn .. there has not been much news out of the spring but the big wildcard of note is Hunter Dekkars at QB .. sounds like he could be really legit and maybe a guy that can get the ball down the field quicker and a little less reliant on putting together those loooong drives than Purdy would go on .. that style of play made Cyclone competitive as underdogs for years but alot more dogfighting than they shoulda had as favs .. last year they lost six games by an average of 6 pts including the bowl game w Clemson .. worst was a 10 pt loss to Iowa and basically handed the Hawkeyes 13 points free off turnovers .. another TD off a short field .. out-yarded baylor 460 to 280 .. lose by 2 .. late fumble at WV at 2 yd line .. really not a bad loss in the bunch and def a team that needs to tweak the play calling and get a little luckier and cookie crumbles there way ALOT last year and we're not nearly as down on these guys over a kinda dud season ..
The thing to like about picking longer odds in the B12 this year is there doesn't seem to be a sure thing once again and alot of teams have their own set of problems and problematic profiles .. OU is one that could actually be a dud with all the guys leaving .. nice to get Venables and Gabriel at QB but the D is unlikely to shore itself up right away, could be alot of shootouts and a few don't go their way .. we don't know enough about UT could be really tough w Ewers / Robinson but D could just keep teams hanging around too long too .. both of them will get everyone's best parting shot this year as they jet to the SEC and losses could add up again .. OK.State and Baylor project a little worse this year even if not a steep drop off .. I def like Baylor of anyone to keep the show going because of their great coaching but again no sure thing .. K-State, WVA don't sound like contenders, T-Tech might have real probs adjusting to Kitley's boom or bust style of play, spring game was a disaster on offense for them .. TCU off a total meltdown, long way to being a contender and lose Zach Evans .. we'll see .. I actually do think Kansas will keep getting better ...
I think very good chance to at least be in the running late in the year to make a title game past the OU/UT stint .. and Cyclones with just the 4 roadies this year is HUGE .. Kans, UT, OK.ST, TCU .. nothing easy and does stink getting TCU roadie at year end since they could improve dramatically over the season.. but same goes for the cyclones time to develop for a likely 2 must win roadies toward year end .. the 5 home conf games are great w Bay, K-St, OU, WV, T-Tech and could reasonably win all 3 non-cons to give them an edge in a 3-way tie ... I don't think Iowa will improve w some of their big losses and worst case might be 2-1 w FCS SEMO and Ohio .. feels pretty good .. so does RSW 6.5 but if we're gunna take these guys might as well get paid, not lay odds ... ceasers comes thru again w best odds, 25-1, seeing mostly around 12 or 15's elsewhere.. I think their odds shrink down to that range before too long ..
Recall last year we had those ridiculous week 1 totals because they were heavily influenced by covid year data .. Consider the average is about 55ish points for all FBS/FBS games no adjusting. LY we had some 6 or 7 pre-ssn totals in the 70's when there's usually 1 or none and a ton more in the 60's high 50's .. only 1 was legitimately in the 40's Navy/Marsh 45 and think Indy/Iowa was 49.5 .. whole curve shifted an average about 4 points .. ie avg game was 59ish and it wasn't because outliers were dragging it up, middle 75% of games were still up ~3pts above average .. All seemed to pass the eye test though from how we recall things went in Covid year but defenses were way stronger experienced and deep in '21 ... makes sense totals over guy started his season like 1-20 or something crazy like that ..
We're not getting totals that were the offspring of covid data again this year at first glance but still worth doing some reasonableness checking .. We got 1 total at 71.5 (UNT/SMU) .. 11 totals in the 60's a few on the higher side .. 5 in the 40's, all upper 40's w 2 lowerst totals at 46.5 and those are the two Wyoming games .. @ILL and home vs Tulsa. I 'totally' agree that any Wyoming game should be in the running for the low total, very obvious losing QB's WR's, OL's and just one proven RB coming back .. but if that's the only team they found to really go low on then they're not doing too much thinking here .. and that they came up w the same total 46.5 for both Wyo games I'd say prob not even really thinking just seems low so putting it low .. The 1 total in the 70's is def not one I'm dying to tangle with .. (UNT/SMU) might actually belong there with two of the fastest offenses from Seth "Marcus" Lutrell and Rhett "White Lightning" Lashlee .. unlikely I bet that but gun to head its under all the way ..
The one worry and reason these have more credibility this year is Circa was first to post whereas last year DK went at it pretty much alone .. but those were in early August I think .. I'm sure they did some homework but dropping totals 100 days out on every wk 1 game, you gotta ask what do they know about Charlotte and FAU to be real confident on that one... spring game, etc? .. guessing not much... Phil and the other mags not even out yet, so crucial to give them an idea how the market will respond to various teams ..
Recall last year we had those ridiculous week 1 totals because they were heavily influenced by covid year data .. Consider the average is about 55ish points for all FBS/FBS games no adjusting. LY we had some 6 or 7 pre-ssn totals in the 70's when there's usually 1 or none and a ton more in the 60's high 50's .. only 1 was legitimately in the 40's Navy/Marsh 45 and think Indy/Iowa was 49.5 .. whole curve shifted an average about 4 points .. ie avg game was 59ish and it wasn't because outliers were dragging it up, middle 75% of games were still up ~3pts above average .. All seemed to pass the eye test though from how we recall things went in Covid year but defenses were way stronger experienced and deep in '21 ... makes sense totals over guy started his season like 1-20 or something crazy like that ..
We're not getting totals that were the offspring of covid data again this year at first glance but still worth doing some reasonableness checking .. We got 1 total at 71.5 (UNT/SMU) .. 11 totals in the 60's a few on the higher side .. 5 in the 40's, all upper 40's w 2 lowerst totals at 46.5 and those are the two Wyoming games .. @ILL and home vs Tulsa. I 'totally' agree that any Wyoming game should be in the running for the low total, very obvious losing QB's WR's, OL's and just one proven RB coming back .. but if that's the only team they found to really go low on then they're not doing too much thinking here .. and that they came up w the same total 46.5 for both Wyo games I'd say prob not even really thinking just seems low so putting it low .. The 1 total in the 70's is def not one I'm dying to tangle with .. (UNT/SMU) might actually belong there with two of the fastest offenses from Seth "Marcus" Lutrell and Rhett "White Lightning" Lashlee .. unlikely I bet that but gun to head its under all the way ..
The one worry and reason these have more credibility this year is Circa was first to post whereas last year DK went at it pretty much alone .. but those were in early August I think .. I'm sure they did some homework but dropping totals 100 days out on every wk 1 game, you gotta ask what do they know about Charlotte and FAU to be real confident on that one... spring game, etc? .. guessing not much... Phil and the other mags not even out yet, so crucial to give them an idea how the market will respond to various teams ..
Was waiting for this one .. Utes D can be really stout but dynamic offense really knows how to move the chains between excellent run game and dynamic QB play, great play calling .. and the hope is a guy like AR-15 can also find holes and move the chains thru the air and with his feet .. Gator D is def not looking like a sure thing strength of the team at least early and almost for sure gunna struggle with Utah's really dynamic and very high success rate offense, esp in the secondary.. Recall last year Gators in full blown shoot out with Samford .. AR didn't play much but that LSU game should be clue #1 how explosive his stuff can be .. Some concern taking this because we know both coaches won't mind running alot and can be fairly slow to snap the ball / burn a bit of clock per play, but I'd expect both to have effective run games, very deep stables on both and alot of explosive potential .. was expecting this to be one of the low 60's total games ..
SMALLER
C.MICHIGAN @ OK.ST UNDER 59.5
Wouldn't count on Pokes D being fully depleted and a mystery this year, they should stay pretty solid.. I'm assuming right now we're getting another year of THE GREAT Spencer Sanders only with their awesome RB Warren and some good rec targets departing .. C.Mich's strength is running the ball and one of the few MAC teams that can play defense and generally expecting a slower moving game here ..
L'VILLE @ CUSE UNDER 59.5
Ville has a stable of RB's and run heavy QB and if Cuse looks to be realllly run heavy too with Schraeder their RB Tucker, a real NFL caliber RB .. Feels like Ville could potentially get a huge spark on offense but this seems alot more like a slug fest, no reason to take chances thru the air when ground games are the real strengths for both .. total in a good spot at 59 31-28 is a winner, same as OKST/CMU .. too high for week 1 in my opinion, we're still getting to know the teams ..
Was waiting for this one .. Utes D can be really stout but dynamic offense really knows how to move the chains between excellent run game and dynamic QB play, great play calling .. and the hope is a guy like AR-15 can also find holes and move the chains thru the air and with his feet .. Gator D is def not looking like a sure thing strength of the team at least early and almost for sure gunna struggle with Utah's really dynamic and very high success rate offense, esp in the secondary.. Recall last year Gators in full blown shoot out with Samford .. AR didn't play much but that LSU game should be clue #1 how explosive his stuff can be .. Some concern taking this because we know both coaches won't mind running alot and can be fairly slow to snap the ball / burn a bit of clock per play, but I'd expect both to have effective run games, very deep stables on both and alot of explosive potential .. was expecting this to be one of the low 60's total games ..
SMALLER
C.MICHIGAN @ OK.ST UNDER 59.5
Wouldn't count on Pokes D being fully depleted and a mystery this year, they should stay pretty solid.. I'm assuming right now we're getting another year of THE GREAT Spencer Sanders only with their awesome RB Warren and some good rec targets departing .. C.Mich's strength is running the ball and one of the few MAC teams that can play defense and generally expecting a slower moving game here ..
L'VILLE @ CUSE UNDER 59.5
Ville has a stable of RB's and run heavy QB and if Cuse looks to be realllly run heavy too with Schraeder their RB Tucker, a real NFL caliber RB .. Feels like Ville could potentially get a huge spark on offense but this seems alot more like a slug fest, no reason to take chances thru the air when ground games are the real strengths for both .. total in a good spot at 59 31-28 is a winner, same as OKST/CMU .. too high for week 1 in my opinion, we're still getting to know the teams ..
64.5 in a game w Rice playing huh? .. the TT on this is 50-14 and SC could put up a ton of points but the trouble is gunna be Rice's game plan is realllly run heavy like 40 rushes to 20 passes / game and they like to take that clock all the way .. USC's D is the BIG question for them esp on the DL. Rice starts putting drives together and they can really melt this clock quickly .. just a matter of how fast USC can score .. I'm fully on board with them being quick and efficient but any contribution Rice makes is likely to be a solid ding against the clock and they were also really bad in the red zone last year, terrible kicker ~50% past 20 yds .. if he's not the guy it'll likely be an incoming freshman .. just alot to not like about this total going over ..
64.5 in a game w Rice playing huh? .. the TT on this is 50-14 and SC could put up a ton of points but the trouble is gunna be Rice's game plan is realllly run heavy like 40 rushes to 20 passes / game and they like to take that clock all the way .. USC's D is the BIG question for them esp on the DL. Rice starts putting drives together and they can really melt this clock quickly .. just a matter of how fast USC can score .. I'm fully on board with them being quick and efficient but any contribution Rice makes is likely to be a solid ding against the clock and they were also really bad in the red zone last year, terrible kicker ~50% past 20 yds .. if he's not the guy it'll likely be an incoming freshman .. just alot to not like about this total going over ..
No need to pick your brain.....you put it all out there.....goodonya.
Agree that Wisky will drop this year...I've never really resonated with Chryst and they've been winning with their defense and very good offensive lines for years, with the rest of their team being substandard....well what if this year either the D or the O-line isn't excellent like they usually are?
The B!0W almost caught up last year and to Iowa as well, (Iowa winning games with that offense was a miracle in itself)...this is the year that 4 top teams end up 4-4 in the West and the others end up 3-5.....lol. Oughta be a dog lovers delight.
No need to pick your brain.....you put it all out there.....goodonya.
Agree that Wisky will drop this year...I've never really resonated with Chryst and they've been winning with their defense and very good offensive lines for years, with the rest of their team being substandard....well what if this year either the D or the O-line isn't excellent like they usually are?
The B!0W almost caught up last year and to Iowa as well, (Iowa winning games with that offense was a miracle in itself)...this is the year that 4 top teams end up 4-4 in the West and the others end up 3-5.....lol. Oughta be a dog lovers delight.
When you're done laughing lets note the best part, KU plays FCS Tennessee Tech and Duke at home, Tenn Tech was pretty crappy last year, Duke obvi was too and it doesnt sound like they've got much to like again this year, lotta guys they need like Jake Bobo transferred out (UCLA) and in my looking around I cant find anything exciting about them outside of maybe having a QB that can actually run the ball in the (touch only) spring game.. but everyone playing touch football can have a highlight reel, even me lol .. They also got WV, TCU, TTech all coming off crappy years, none sound like much of a sure thing huge improver .. not gunna say theyll finally beat KState but Cats dont sound great this year either.. Almost all the B12 sounds likely worse than last year except the two teams who cant get worse .. UT and KU lol.. just feels like one or more teams will suffer a meltdown this year and already have 2 likely wins and 3-4 maybe money shots at a win.
Besides the schedule I reallly trust Lipold, he had KU playing tough down the stretch last year and even if he was racking up the losses that run reminds me alot of year 1 before Buffalo's epic run .. Jaylon Daniels back at QB and we know he can play .. really stacked RB room and alot of the D comes back .. and KU has been attractive in the portal, 24th or so portal class per 247 and landing some actual proven players not just no experience prospects.. Its a good profile for improvement.
Part of playing these RSW's is finding a play that is very tough to lose and while a tie is maybe the most likely outcome still have enough potential shots for the win.. thats exactly what were doing here.. no problem laying the -125 for what seems like at min a tie .. But really wouldnt surprise me if they land 4 wins w so much turmoil in the conf this year and being so close in quite a few last year .. Caesars w the best number (again), im seeing plenty of 2.5's for similar over odds and i dont think we see 2's very long.
When you're done laughing lets note the best part, KU plays FCS Tennessee Tech and Duke at home, Tenn Tech was pretty crappy last year, Duke obvi was too and it doesnt sound like they've got much to like again this year, lotta guys they need like Jake Bobo transferred out (UCLA) and in my looking around I cant find anything exciting about them outside of maybe having a QB that can actually run the ball in the (touch only) spring game.. but everyone playing touch football can have a highlight reel, even me lol .. They also got WV, TCU, TTech all coming off crappy years, none sound like much of a sure thing huge improver .. not gunna say theyll finally beat KState but Cats dont sound great this year either.. Almost all the B12 sounds likely worse than last year except the two teams who cant get worse .. UT and KU lol.. just feels like one or more teams will suffer a meltdown this year and already have 2 likely wins and 3-4 maybe money shots at a win.
Besides the schedule I reallly trust Lipold, he had KU playing tough down the stretch last year and even if he was racking up the losses that run reminds me alot of year 1 before Buffalo's epic run .. Jaylon Daniels back at QB and we know he can play .. really stacked RB room and alot of the D comes back .. and KU has been attractive in the portal, 24th or so portal class per 247 and landing some actual proven players not just no experience prospects.. Its a good profile for improvement.
Part of playing these RSW's is finding a play that is very tough to lose and while a tie is maybe the most likely outcome still have enough potential shots for the win.. thats exactly what were doing here.. no problem laying the -125 for what seems like at min a tie .. But really wouldnt surprise me if they land 4 wins w so much turmoil in the conf this year and being so close in quite a few last year .. Caesars w the best number (again), im seeing plenty of 2.5's for similar over odds and i dont think we see 2's very long.
Yuuup .. one of my favorite plays... those hooks can be worth so much esp on the really low RSW totals ..I'd get nervous if they lost to WV and then to Duke and were 1-4 heading into their main conf stretch, esp if Duke doesn't look like a huge turnaround much better sounder football playing team under the new HC but they lose the great RB and sounds like just starting off their journey to respectability ...
Didn't mention above but there's also ALOT of spots for KU to pull a sneaky sandwich stunner because nobody put their bye week ahead of them this year ... Duke even got a pretty good in state FCS team before trip to KU w NC A&T and thats gotta be a no fool around must win for them to get their season started off right .. Dukes got UVA conf play on deck easy to forget about trip to KU .. And in conf there's a bunch of good spots too, TCU homer has the frogs sandwiched between Okla / OK.State .. UT homer gets em between TCU/Baylor .. OU right after UT .. OK.St has K-St / IA.St .. T-Tech has TCU/IA.St .. WV does get 9 days off but that's right after the backyard brawl .. Houston might be under-prepped for KU right after a huge UTSA opener ... just a lotta spots where Lipold could show up competitive and get KU in some real dog fights .. not unlike LY ..
Yuuup .. one of my favorite plays... those hooks can be worth so much esp on the really low RSW totals ..I'd get nervous if they lost to WV and then to Duke and were 1-4 heading into their main conf stretch, esp if Duke doesn't look like a huge turnaround much better sounder football playing team under the new HC but they lose the great RB and sounds like just starting off their journey to respectability ...
Didn't mention above but there's also ALOT of spots for KU to pull a sneaky sandwich stunner because nobody put their bye week ahead of them this year ... Duke even got a pretty good in state FCS team before trip to KU w NC A&T and thats gotta be a no fool around must win for them to get their season started off right .. Dukes got UVA conf play on deck easy to forget about trip to KU .. And in conf there's a bunch of good spots too, TCU homer has the frogs sandwiched between Okla / OK.State .. UT homer gets em between TCU/Baylor .. OU right after UT .. OK.St has K-St / IA.St .. T-Tech has TCU/IA.St .. WV does get 9 days off but that's right after the backyard brawl .. Houston might be under-prepped for KU right after a huge UTSA opener ... just a lotta spots where Lipold could show up competitive and get KU in some real dog fights .. not unlike LY ..
Took the Buffs under 4 last year after their QB got injured in pre-ssn but they actually came closer than expected w wins vs Oreg State (OT) and big win vs UA and their FCS opponent .. and nearly a clincher playing Texas A&M at home to the wire .. also played Wash to within 3 pts .. that was last year though and big picture is the roster got gutted pretty hard in graduates, xfers, NFL tryouteers, medical retirees, you name it .. didn't show us much in the spring game but all reports leave you with alot of questions and plenty of room for guys to 'step up' .. even saw the walk ons were impressing .. not good ..
They should get TJ Strout back at QB (Tenn xfer / acl tear LY) but his injury was apparently on the nastier side of knee injuries .. he was back on the sidelines for spring but with limited reps/contact and his return maybe likely but very possible he's not much of a value add... This offense really stunk bad last year and will need to replace a really good RB in Broussard who left to Mich State, do return half of their 1-2 punch with Fontenot which is good and expecting Stud RB Ramon Jefferson from Sam Houston to join up but he recently backed out of the portal ... probably after assessing the situation in Boulder .. best two OL's The one sure thing good grab is RJ Sneed from Baylor, 560 yds last year .. why he left a great thing idk but that was with Grimes as OC of BYU Covid year fame and a real high powered offense .. this is looking to be very low power .. possible new OC Macintyre breathes some life into them but early career success has given way to taking over good offenses and overseeing their decline .. W.Kentucky after Mike White, Utah State in 19 and Minn in '20/LY both after their really awesome years followed by super steep drop offs ..
Defense was a decent gem in 2020 and didn't quite carry it over last year but was easily the best side of the ball .. Ton of guys are leave including their best in the front 8, DL Moose Johsnson, LB Landman and best edge rusher Carson Wells .. possible they make a recovery at LB with a few guys back and a decent experienced xfer from WV Josh Chandler but no sure thing with best guys out and general depth concerns .. the real worry is the secondary top CB's and safety gone and Mekhai Blackmon was a legit corner (heading to USC) and most of the snaps go with them and 4 others who played last year .. they landed six xfers and none were in that unit ... btw thats six total xfers in and 23 xfers out .. 19 landed at other most all FBS programs .. 5 were in the secondary .. only other spot to get plundered that bad was their WR group .. also don't like that they lack a real special teams coach, no money so put a QC analyst to do ST's but that's not the same .. they did okay on ST last year w decent kicker and really good punter 48 yds / punt .. lose the punter this year is not good ..
Schedule is also really unkind with non-cons TCU, @AF @Minny .. books already showing us -9 to TCU at home .. that maybe a bit much w Frogs coming out of a full blown meltdown year but bookies are def letting you know what they think of the Buffs .. I'm guessing they're underestimated Air Force too because its hard to spot wins on this schedule .. AF is gunna roll in that game .. Roadie to AZ, Home vs Cal, Home vs ASU, Roadie to Oreg State is the best path to 4 wins and those come right in a row, just tough to imagine a month straight of winning or having much of a shot vs UCLA, @USC, Oregon, @Wash or Utah without going +++ in turnovers and maybe some other big luck .. again the O was significantly lower than everyone else in the PAC last year and D was about average nationally but both sides could be pushed down into dark territory this year ..
Took the Buffs under 4 last year after their QB got injured in pre-ssn but they actually came closer than expected w wins vs Oreg State (OT) and big win vs UA and their FCS opponent .. and nearly a clincher playing Texas A&M at home to the wire .. also played Wash to within 3 pts .. that was last year though and big picture is the roster got gutted pretty hard in graduates, xfers, NFL tryouteers, medical retirees, you name it .. didn't show us much in the spring game but all reports leave you with alot of questions and plenty of room for guys to 'step up' .. even saw the walk ons were impressing .. not good ..
They should get TJ Strout back at QB (Tenn xfer / acl tear LY) but his injury was apparently on the nastier side of knee injuries .. he was back on the sidelines for spring but with limited reps/contact and his return maybe likely but very possible he's not much of a value add... This offense really stunk bad last year and will need to replace a really good RB in Broussard who left to Mich State, do return half of their 1-2 punch with Fontenot which is good and expecting Stud RB Ramon Jefferson from Sam Houston to join up but he recently backed out of the portal ... probably after assessing the situation in Boulder .. best two OL's The one sure thing good grab is RJ Sneed from Baylor, 560 yds last year .. why he left a great thing idk but that was with Grimes as OC of BYU Covid year fame and a real high powered offense .. this is looking to be very low power .. possible new OC Macintyre breathes some life into them but early career success has given way to taking over good offenses and overseeing their decline .. W.Kentucky after Mike White, Utah State in 19 and Minn in '20/LY both after their really awesome years followed by super steep drop offs ..
Defense was a decent gem in 2020 and didn't quite carry it over last year but was easily the best side of the ball .. Ton of guys are leave including their best in the front 8, DL Moose Johsnson, LB Landman and best edge rusher Carson Wells .. possible they make a recovery at LB with a few guys back and a decent experienced xfer from WV Josh Chandler but no sure thing with best guys out and general depth concerns .. the real worry is the secondary top CB's and safety gone and Mekhai Blackmon was a legit corner (heading to USC) and most of the snaps go with them and 4 others who played last year .. they landed six xfers and none were in that unit ... btw thats six total xfers in and 23 xfers out .. 19 landed at other most all FBS programs .. 5 were in the secondary .. only other spot to get plundered that bad was their WR group .. also don't like that they lack a real special teams coach, no money so put a QC analyst to do ST's but that's not the same .. they did okay on ST last year w decent kicker and really good punter 48 yds / punt .. lose the punter this year is not good ..
Schedule is also really unkind with non-cons TCU, @AF @Minny .. books already showing us -9 to TCU at home .. that maybe a bit much w Frogs coming out of a full blown meltdown year but bookies are def letting you know what they think of the Buffs .. I'm guessing they're underestimated Air Force too because its hard to spot wins on this schedule .. AF is gunna roll in that game .. Roadie to AZ, Home vs Cal, Home vs ASU, Roadie to Oreg State is the best path to 4 wins and those come right in a row, just tough to imagine a month straight of winning or having much of a shot vs UCLA, @USC, Oregon, @Wash or Utah without going +++ in turnovers and maybe some other big luck .. again the O was significantly lower than everyone else in the PAC last year and D was about average nationally but both sides could be pushed down into dark territory this year ..
WOOO-HOOOO Got some G5 RSW's trickling in now ... Sunbelt and Mountain West dropped at Barstool and AAC / Independent's are up at Caesars. Sun has a chance for a major shake up w new teams coming in James Madison, Marshall and SO.Miss. Its a disrupter with coaches learning these new teams. The BIG 3 of the conference have big transformations too w coaches, QB's and returning prod. Big contrast with what the models relying heavily on strength in past years and recruiting, not the likely turmoil i'm expecting. If there's a big surprise team in the lower ranks then I see the ingredients for them to rise up and make a big run for the championship.. Books are cluing us in too with J-MAD and SO.Bama at RSW 8.5 wins .. woah!!!
APP STATE UNDER 9.5 -113 (BAR)
This number is totally insane with UNC and Texas A&M on their schedule .. they might have a punchers chance vs UNC at home but even if they split those its not gunna be easy to hit 10 wins .. possible they get there if they split but if they lose both and they gotta run the table and schedule has upset spots w JMU, GA-State, B2B roadies @Coastal @Marshall .. they do get 2 FCS non-cons but that's not an easy conf schedule even ending the year @GA-So they might really stink all year and finally get better toward the end moving into a pass heavy spread offense .. the thing to like w App is the RB room is super stacked but it also was last year and the big concern is likely still have Chase Brice at QB and he was better last year but that was with a MONSTER WR corps, Corey Sutton, Malik Williams, Hennigan, Virgil and two of their TE's accounted for 2600 of the rec yds and they're all gone .. no way they replace 4-5 really solid guys might find a couple pretty good .. Wouldn't trust the pass game to perform well with Brice if he doesn't have all those targets around, guy had a 22-10 ratio last year w those guys and we know he can get worse based on his 10-15 ratio at Duke in 2020 .. They also lose A TON of starters and contributors on D all over esp from a realllly good secondary that only returns one of the better guys but every pos group takes a big hit .. Just alot of ways this can go besides going 10-2 or 11-1 ..
WOOO-HOOOO Got some G5 RSW's trickling in now ... Sunbelt and Mountain West dropped at Barstool and AAC / Independent's are up at Caesars. Sun has a chance for a major shake up w new teams coming in James Madison, Marshall and SO.Miss. Its a disrupter with coaches learning these new teams. The BIG 3 of the conference have big transformations too w coaches, QB's and returning prod. Big contrast with what the models relying heavily on strength in past years and recruiting, not the likely turmoil i'm expecting. If there's a big surprise team in the lower ranks then I see the ingredients for them to rise up and make a big run for the championship.. Books are cluing us in too with J-MAD and SO.Bama at RSW 8.5 wins .. woah!!!
APP STATE UNDER 9.5 -113 (BAR)
This number is totally insane with UNC and Texas A&M on their schedule .. they might have a punchers chance vs UNC at home but even if they split those its not gunna be easy to hit 10 wins .. possible they get there if they split but if they lose both and they gotta run the table and schedule has upset spots w JMU, GA-State, B2B roadies @Coastal @Marshall .. they do get 2 FCS non-cons but that's not an easy conf schedule even ending the year @GA-So they might really stink all year and finally get better toward the end moving into a pass heavy spread offense .. the thing to like w App is the RB room is super stacked but it also was last year and the big concern is likely still have Chase Brice at QB and he was better last year but that was with a MONSTER WR corps, Corey Sutton, Malik Williams, Hennigan, Virgil and two of their TE's accounted for 2600 of the rec yds and they're all gone .. no way they replace 4-5 really solid guys might find a couple pretty good .. Wouldn't trust the pass game to perform well with Brice if he doesn't have all those targets around, guy had a 22-10 ratio last year w those guys and we know he can get worse based on his 10-15 ratio at Duke in 2020 .. They also lose A TON of starters and contributors on D all over esp from a realllly good secondary that only returns one of the better guys but every pos group takes a big hit .. Just alot of ways this can go besides going 10-2 or 11-1 ..
COASTAL CARO UNDER 9.5 -113 (BAR) Coastal keeps the coaches and the QB and a few good RB's but alot of big names are out best RB Jones and the Highly-Likely Explosive duo, 3 from that killer OL, bunch on defense .. I think they'll find some replacements but it's a hefty reload and very underrated reload on the OL which was critical to their success running that speed option / giving McCall time back there to operate .. we saw the line struggle vs Troy LY vs a good pass rush and saw what happens if G-MC gets injured .. loss to GA-State LY .. Even w him last year we saw Kansas give them a competitive game even if the score ended lopsided, Troy and So.Bam were within a score, Buffalo within 3 pts and losses to App, GA-State and full on dog fight vs N.ILL in the bowl game .. they really eek'd out 10 wins LY and think ceiling is lower with the losses and likely tougher schedule featuring Army, @Marsh, App St, @UVA, @JMU .. plus maybe tougher competition this year from Old Dom, Buffalo and roadie to @GA-State .. Think it'll be REALLY tough to get 9 wins unless there was just a gold mine on the bench last year .. If odds too jerkey now I think 9 for closer to even or +odds would be a great play too which I suspect we'll see as others drop their SUN RSW's ..
LOUISIANA UNDER 10 -143 (BAR) Fairly easy schedule but have Marsh / FSU on the road should be tough to get thru unscathed. Even if they snake one of those its really tough to see an 11-1 team when they lose Napier and all the coaches and players he picked off to head over to the Gators with him including the stud freshman RB and monster OL O'Cyrus Torrence .. the bad news is of course the rest of the schedule has a lot of stinkers and ULL has been recruiting like crazy the last couple years building up their depth behind multiple years of returning production so I'd count on the team to still be in a good spot .. But new HC/OC/DC, QB, lose many other key guys to graduation and there's no room for error, one slip up pretty much locks me in for a tie or a win .. Even last year's epic great team came really close to slipping up multiple times after losing to the Horns in the opener .. did run the table but had a ton of close calls ... Nicholls, S.Bama, Ark State, GA-State were all 4 or fewer point wins .. GA.Sou, ULM were also one score wins .. that team really walked a tightrope showing up big in big games and playing others reallly tight and tough to expect the new version to not slip up somewhere .. Def lay odds w the 10 spot, wouldn't mind going under 9.5 for closer to even odds ..
COASTAL CARO UNDER 9.5 -113 (BAR) Coastal keeps the coaches and the QB and a few good RB's but alot of big names are out best RB Jones and the Highly-Likely Explosive duo, 3 from that killer OL, bunch on defense .. I think they'll find some replacements but it's a hefty reload and very underrated reload on the OL which was critical to their success running that speed option / giving McCall time back there to operate .. we saw the line struggle vs Troy LY vs a good pass rush and saw what happens if G-MC gets injured .. loss to GA-State LY .. Even w him last year we saw Kansas give them a competitive game even if the score ended lopsided, Troy and So.Bam were within a score, Buffalo within 3 pts and losses to App, GA-State and full on dog fight vs N.ILL in the bowl game .. they really eek'd out 10 wins LY and think ceiling is lower with the losses and likely tougher schedule featuring Army, @Marsh, App St, @UVA, @JMU .. plus maybe tougher competition this year from Old Dom, Buffalo and roadie to @GA-State .. Think it'll be REALLY tough to get 9 wins unless there was just a gold mine on the bench last year .. If odds too jerkey now I think 9 for closer to even or +odds would be a great play too which I suspect we'll see as others drop their SUN RSW's ..
LOUISIANA UNDER 10 -143 (BAR) Fairly easy schedule but have Marsh / FSU on the road should be tough to get thru unscathed. Even if they snake one of those its really tough to see an 11-1 team when they lose Napier and all the coaches and players he picked off to head over to the Gators with him including the stud freshman RB and monster OL O'Cyrus Torrence .. the bad news is of course the rest of the schedule has a lot of stinkers and ULL has been recruiting like crazy the last couple years building up their depth behind multiple years of returning production so I'd count on the team to still be in a good spot .. But new HC/OC/DC, QB, lose many other key guys to graduation and there's no room for error, one slip up pretty much locks me in for a tie or a win .. Even last year's epic great team came really close to slipping up multiple times after losing to the Horns in the opener .. did run the table but had a ton of close calls ... Nicholls, S.Bama, Ark State, GA-State were all 4 or fewer point wins .. GA.Sou, ULM were also one score wins .. that team really walked a tightrope showing up big in big games and playing others reallly tight and tough to expect the new version to not slip up somewhere .. Def lay odds w the 10 spot, wouldn't mind going under 9.5 for closer to even odds ..
Okay off to the MW .. Big picture: I think there's 3 teams about to suffer a huge meltdown type of season and a few that could be really rock solid .. grabbed what I could from Barstool before getting limited but there's a couple others I'll mention at the end ..
COLORADO STATE OVER 4.5 -113 (BAR) Biggest RSW play and still up same odds at Barstool .. woop .. Really like the prospects of Rams being much better this year with Jay Norvell coming in and bringing a good number of his best guys from Nevada solid WR's.. some of this really is contengent on the quality of QB play we have Carson Strong's understudy at Nevada Clay Millen and by all accounts he's ready to be QB1 now .. he gets 2 good xfers at receiver Stovall and Horton plus injured WR Dante Wright is back and he's a LEGIT star that got injured last couple years and now very under the radar .. RB group in tact and Baily was pretty good LY and bring in a prospect from Nevada .. there is concern at OL with quite a few out and do bring a couple in but Air Raid offense much diff type of player need so watch out there the one potential prob spot im seeing and worth looking into how that unit is coming around closer to fall .. doesn't mean we don't play 4.5 now OC can def game around OL trouble much easier than others can .. The D also has some questions esp in the secondary but they bring in two likely starters at corner and DE .. so some questions and uncertainty but we're getting a pretty low number for very likely improving team, maybe multiple TD's per game by the offense .. much better sitch than just throwing to McBride all game ..
Best way to hit this RSW are wins at home vs Mid-T, FCS Sac State, and New Mexico and all three of my very likely MW duds this year: @Nev, Haw, Wyo ... so 6 very good shots at wins and only one of those on the road = awesome .. there's also outside shots with Utah State at home and @SJSU before you have to pull a bigger upset but I'd call it 6 they should be favorites in and 2 more they'll be smaller dogs and wouldn't count out a bigger upset vs Boise, AF or Wash State but that's a stretch and don't I get to 5 wins pretty easy way before them .. always possible things don't work out but in terms of surprise scenarios think theres a MUCH better chance we see the RAMS make a solid run at the division than there is of them winning 4 or fewer games this year .. Would play soon, I think this RSW will quickly move to 5.5 or 6 esp when bigger books drop their numbers ..
Okay off to the MW .. Big picture: I think there's 3 teams about to suffer a huge meltdown type of season and a few that could be really rock solid .. grabbed what I could from Barstool before getting limited but there's a couple others I'll mention at the end ..
COLORADO STATE OVER 4.5 -113 (BAR) Biggest RSW play and still up same odds at Barstool .. woop .. Really like the prospects of Rams being much better this year with Jay Norvell coming in and bringing a good number of his best guys from Nevada solid WR's.. some of this really is contengent on the quality of QB play we have Carson Strong's understudy at Nevada Clay Millen and by all accounts he's ready to be QB1 now .. he gets 2 good xfers at receiver Stovall and Horton plus injured WR Dante Wright is back and he's a LEGIT star that got injured last couple years and now very under the radar .. RB group in tact and Baily was pretty good LY and bring in a prospect from Nevada .. there is concern at OL with quite a few out and do bring a couple in but Air Raid offense much diff type of player need so watch out there the one potential prob spot im seeing and worth looking into how that unit is coming around closer to fall .. doesn't mean we don't play 4.5 now OC can def game around OL trouble much easier than others can .. The D also has some questions esp in the secondary but they bring in two likely starters at corner and DE .. so some questions and uncertainty but we're getting a pretty low number for very likely improving team, maybe multiple TD's per game by the offense .. much better sitch than just throwing to McBride all game ..
Best way to hit this RSW are wins at home vs Mid-T, FCS Sac State, and New Mexico and all three of my very likely MW duds this year: @Nev, Haw, Wyo ... so 6 very good shots at wins and only one of those on the road = awesome .. there's also outside shots with Utah State at home and @SJSU before you have to pull a bigger upset but I'd call it 6 they should be favorites in and 2 more they'll be smaller dogs and wouldn't count out a bigger upset vs Boise, AF or Wash State but that's a stretch and don't I get to 5 wins pretty easy way before them .. always possible things don't work out but in terms of surprise scenarios think theres a MUCH better chance we see the RAMS make a solid run at the division than there is of them winning 4 or fewer games this year .. Would play soon, I think this RSW will quickly move to 5.5 or 6 esp when bigger books drop their numbers ..
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.