BRIDGE PRE-SSN

Let's get this party started... 

GEORGIA NATTY +475 (BoL)

Never hit Natty's this early but with the odds at nearly 5-1 at BoL and sitting behind Bama and Ohio State I think its the best we'll see def not a better deal closer to pre-ssn unless something drastic happens ... The big picture questions got answered for me the main one being how rich do the TE/Rec corps look and think we might be saying this is one of the best receiving arsenals ever assembled .. there's at least one decent QB option in the cupboard behind Bennett with Beck and Vandagriff might be another one .. and wouldn't surprise or bother me if either one ultimately grab the top spot .. OL is the main concern but not one I can't get past to make a play just banking on Matt Luke to have a solid unit .. 

Also for everything the D lost LY consider the effects of UGA retaining so much of their NFL talent the last couple years ... Whereas normally elite programs are prospecting from true soph or RS Freshman to step up that's not really the case here with a bunch of guys from the '19 and '20 class going into year 3 or 4 of the program. Some of them would normally be off to the NFL this year and they still have the extra recruiting cycle behind them .. That has led some guys entering the portal but this is about as good of a "big rebuild" situation as you can ask for .. Watch what happens to other teams that aren't really benefiting from the extra year of eligibility and didn't retain guys last year try to rebuild this year and think you'll see what I mean .. Anyway, the main thing to take solace in w UGA is the DL, all the great D's Kirby pumps out at UGA or Bama or Venables did at Clemson were all built DL first and this Dawg line looks super elite w Nolan Smith back and Jalen Carter might be the #1 pick next year, Beal is another good one from LY and already have a guy like Logue to be excited about .. there's another 10 or so guys behind them 1 to 3 years in the program waiting for their shot .. There's def some guesswork elsewhere but if the starting point of my big rebuild is maybe the best DL in CFB then I don't feel squeamish about rolling the dice a little that Kirby will figure it out w the other units .. 

Unsure if we have another typical year with 2 or 3 legit horses and huge dropoff after but the odds offered are indicating this .. OSU offense might be the best out there but they were a long way off on D last couple years .. Think bama has a real glaring issue at WR we already saw a diff team w out Williams and Metchie in there LY and w Hall hitting the portal this could be a huge drop from what they've had the last 5ish years .. Robinson is another that'll be tough to replace .. otherwise their D looks to be pretty nasty .. Its possible another team strikes gold like LSU did with all the big time QB's and other talent in the portal but for these odds UGA def make sense to me .. 

Buckeyes D will be vastly improved with Jim Knowles coming over from OKSt.   He'll get the basics worked out which will already be an improvement over last year (see the Oregon game).  

@BWS77

Yeah no doubt, coordinator hires are so make or break so that was a huge hire .. Tall order to jump from a top 30's D to a top 5ish but Bucks can do that like from '18 to '19 but they also had chase young and those big time corners .. Knowles obvi didn't have that with the pokes but that also took a few years and D was 2 if not 3 year starters pretty deep group no holes in the units ... If he has 3 or 4 real superstars and all that other talent to work with then they'll be a tough out in the playoffs .. 

Bucks were def on my radar to make a pre-ssn natty bet, seein high 300's to +550 out there .. and they got a pretty good home schedule w ND, Wisco, Iowa, Mich, even with tough opener and cross-overs the only real roadie is the white out .. startin to make me regret my pick now lol .. good luck B-Dub .. 

MISSOURI RSW OVER 5 .. +115 WH in IL

Posted the thoughts in here:
https://www.covers.com/forum/college-football-33/college-futures-103629497

In short I think the first books pushing out RSW's are really not doing much homework and when they see Mizz lose Bazalak and not grab anyone else its assumed things will get ugly .. liked what we got from Cook in the spring game, the offense looked fine and surprise group of WR's .. that alone makes me feel pretty good here we got LaTech, FCS Ark Central, Vandy and NMSU on the schedule and maybe an outside chance they lose to Vandy but really feels like any kinda competent offense makes that 4-0 .. don't need to game theory it out too much I'd say there's one sure fire loss w UGA and a number of spots Zoo can go +1 or +2 in TO's and make it competitive albeit most of those are on the road @Kansas state, @S.Car, @Auburn even @Florida .. just seems like we got enough rolls of the dice here to make a play and the dice get loaded in our favor quick if anyone on the schedule has the kinda 'meltdown' that we've seen ALOT of SEC teams have the last few years .. my guess is this is a heavy juice 5.5 or 6 by kickoff time because think they'll come to their senses and realize Zoo has to have a really ugly season to only bag 4 wins w this schedule and wouldn't surprise anyone if they found a way to eek out 7..

Good luck!

ACC RSW's are uuuup at William hill and Pointsbet .. Couple I think are worth grabbing sooner than later .. and recall we only do that now because number is worth tying money up now, unlikely to get as good a deal later on, risk of major change due to major injury/xfer, etc so focus is generally on unders for that reason .. got one I feel pretty good about .. 

CLEMSON UNDER 10.5 +110 (WH)

Got a look at Clem spring game and think its likely another tough year on offense, DJ is the main man again and didn't see much change, big arm but can't make all the throws just way too many dud balls same with the backup .. heard some of the Clem talk and one thing that stands out is them having a bunch of big talents at WR but too many of the same type of big receiver, not a dynamic corps like in the past and some questions on the OL .. Defense should stay elite DL looks nasty again but very possible  Tigers are in a bunch of dog fights this year relying on the D again .. and long time OC/DCs leaving are likely very negative impacts .. also Dabo clearly not big on the portal or the NIL's and maybe they land someone but unlikely there's a MAJOR splash coming their way from the portal .. and otherwise the recruiting has not been elite, very possible the program is just not elite anymore ..  

Think there's 4 sure thing wins @GT, FCS, LA-Tech, Cuse .. but gets a little tenuous from there, I would call WF and BC strong wins but even both of those are on the road .. NCSt, @FSU, @ND, VILL, MIA, S.CAR .. think they are likely to be favored in all those pre-ssn maybe slight dog @ND, but any one of those games could turn into dogfights the way Cuse did last year, play a little defense, catch a break or two and its a game .. that's ALOT of uncertainty for saying this is an 11 win season, possible it gets there but 10 or 9 wins in my est is an overwhelmingly more likely outcome than 11 or 12 ... would grab sooner than later, I think were gunna be layin heavier odds for under 10 wins as more books post a number .. 

Couple others on the radar, no play yet .. in general think ACC will have quite a few teams between say top 30 to top 15 and so not much separation, generally any team in that 8/9 win range seems more likely an under .. 

UNC OVER 7.5 .. pretty favorable schedule with alot of very winnable games .. don't know nearly enough about this team yet ..  
MIAMI .. 8.5, might be tempted to stab at Under 9 if we get that w reasonable odds .. 
PITT UNDER 9.5 .. they lost to W.Mich last year, lost pickett and their OC and maybe Addison leaving? .. there's ALOT of losable games on their schedule if they aren't VERY good and consistent and might need a big upgrade to a defense that made them very beatable last year .. 
WAKE 9 .. .. man .. they got ALOT of games they 'should' win and 'could' win .. gut says def take Wake under a 9 spot though ..  
UVA 7.. lean under but there's ALOT of 'could' wins on the schedule .. really hope we can find slightly better 7.5 think 8 I would take now .. UVA really seems like they are one wrong injury away from an Indiana style meltdown this year but 7 just seems a little too much of a tossup when we start the year w Richmond, ILL, ODU, Cuse, Duke and also have Ville at home, GT, Coastal and always a tossup vs VT .. realistically 'could' beat this number with room to spare, very easy if they pull off a real upset like a UNC, etc which doesn't seem impossible .. gotta hope for an 8 .. 

Also got a gander at the SEC .. only made the Mizz play so far, couple other leans out there ..  

VANDY lean over 2.5 +125 .. Schedule is unworthy of an SEC team w some of these roadies but I'd assume Vandy is not interested in paying these little teams to show up in Nashville and maybe beat them at home lol ..  @Hawaii, Elon, @N.ILL wth!?!? .. I think very good chance you win this one in 3 games, Hawaii should be a real gutterball this year, Vandy lost to a pretty good FCS team last year but Elon is not on ETSU's level, that's a W for sure .. N.ILL is a worry but idk Vandy beat Col.State on the road and Rams smacked Toledo pretty hard .. MAC is still da MAC .. think we're done early 3-0 ..  Wake, S.Car or Mizzoo seem like fairly outside shots, but shots nonetheless and Vandy has snuck.. also vandy will have a fairly experienced team w couple years of some guys starting now and even if not great they'll have more than 1 QB option .. could see it getting to 3 wins if another team downgrades ... def doubt +125 is around very long, could be laying odds .. but might also want see if one of these books opens with a 2 which I think is a sure thing tie .. if playing Mizzoo this also serves as a bit of a hedge as Vandy really is a must win game for that RSW to hit but not really needed for Vandy to go over .. 

TEXAS A&M lean under 8.5 +135 .. really don't hate going under there its a pretty relentless schedule and there is a nasty stretch of roadies in the middle of it ARK(N), @MISS.ST, @BAMA, Bye, @S.CAR and there very well could be 2 or 3 losses in there .. Sam Houston State and App are W's but they are real tough for their size, add on Miami and an SEC schedule w XDiv S.Car and Florida ... unsure why anyone would lay odds at this number .. may not grab it here but odds are great, think the move is see if we can get a 9 somewhere, think its very tough for them to hit 10 wins with their schedule . 

TENN .. lean over 7.5 its 3 strong wins plus lilely wins Mizz, S.Car, Vandy then gotta split the difference on @Pitt, FLA, @LSU, UK .. Could even sail over taking 3/4 of those .. think very likely to hit 8 maybe 9 and that's with bama and UGA nearly sure thing losses on the schedule .. In Hooker We Trust .. still tough to play with 2 very likely losses .. 

MISS ST .. lean over 6.5 same boat as Tenn w UGA/Bama on the schedule .. 3 very likely wins w BG, AZ, Memphis .. get good spot to play A&M at home, got auburn off a bye at home, Ark home and Ole miss to end the year is just always a very likely tossup .. could also sneak off with a road win vs LSU or Kentucky.. I think Miss State has a punchers chance at a real surprise 8 or 9 win season .. 

Waiting for an accessible Cuse Over 4. Thoughts there?

@JozKnows

Haven't deep dive'd them yet I thought last year was a great time to hit them think it was RSW around 3.5 or 4 and eek'd out 5 .. that covid year was so insanely bad no way they weren't gunna be much improved but even then just a cruddy team and program ... Coach was so lucky to have Eric "Do It All" Dungey and they've just been a dud ever since .. places like Cuse or MD need to sink to unreal lows before the AD's will fire the coaches they got if you know what I mean ... I don't have a lean on playing it but why take it now? you think they'll be much better and the RSW will change before the season, will only be 4.5's later?, idk .. I do think ACC just has to be top to bottom better this year that was insane last year .. if so cuse maybe squeezed out of shots at lucky wins ... Wagner / Uconn look like W's to me .. everything else looks pretty tough .. Purdue looks good .. who are the other 3 wins? .. BC, Wake both on the road .. UVA/Ville in the dome maybe .. idk unless I had insider info they were gunna be way better I'd wait for a 3.5 to show up or no play for me .. 

My thought was returning production, where they are top ten. They were not an easy out last year until they majorly faded toward the end (depth an issue). Running game should actually be good with Schrader & Tucker (and OLine) and offensive coordinator hire from Virginia should help.

Defense could be a case where experience could go either way, but I expect the secondary to be strong. May not be able to hold up vs the run, under sized. Defense was not a bad unit last year in the ACC.

They got to 5 last year with the Big Ten loss (Rutgers). So let's give up Purdue and coun Wagner and UConn as wins.  I don't think it's a stretch to find 2 other ACC wins for a push... ACC looks to me like it'll be overrated due to parity this season, fresh off a pathetic year. Though you're right it's hard identifying specific teams. You think we see 3.5?? I see mostly 4.5 now.

NC STATE ACC CHAMP +1200

Went ahead and punched it .. Had 18-1 at crappy betrivers when the numbers first came out but they only let me put like 20 on it .. they got the hint, odds dropped quick, sorry guys .. Put a nickel in on this one be a real nice hit .. These seem like solid odds this team looks and sounds the part and they don't need to progress much before they are a big notch above most everyone in this conference even if others progress too .. we obvi have the big showdown needing to go to Clemson and that is worrisome but that is a big party of that 12-1 .. win at Clemson, beat wake at home, grab the inside track to the champ game and then handle business at the end .. I wouldn't take it under 10-1 but I think 12 is a solid spot .. if they're as solid as I think they'll be then the real odds seem as low as 5-1 .. Would take this sooner than later because we've already seen the odds drop and seeing 9's and 11's out there now, Pitt seems a likely contender in the champ game likely lost a big piece in Jordan Addison in the portal and he's maybe a 1st rounder next year .. and the more anyone see's from Clem my guess is the less confident anyone's gunna be .. my guess is this settles down 7-1 or so before too long .. Wolfpack is def one of a few journeyman teams (like Utah) that are thinking REAL BIG this year .. hopefully means less thinking about NIL riches like others .. Would grab RSW 8.5 but odds are crappy, would take 8.5 -110 for sure, no reason to play anything juiced up at least not at this point, if it moves to 9 and we miss it then oh well .. 

Besides that there's a nice one to have on the radar for the Coastal division .. 
Miami/Pitt clocking in at +175 is way too light to play ..
UNC+300 lol def not at that price .. 
UVA+900 def not .. think UVA could have big probs this year .. 
VT +2500 .... well that's worth a small play just even on the off chance they should be worse but turnaround and have a surprise year .. when I actually look at them and there's at least something to like I'd make a real bet no problem and no Clemson on the schedule .. recall we hit Pitt LY 10-1 for the division and 60-1 for the conference .. we've seen infinitely weirder things in this conference albeit usually from epic dropoffs.. new coach brent pry DC from penn st, new QB grant wells from Marsh and another guy from S.Car .. and hopefully a new attitude .. and that is at least the big change formula .. also 150-1 for the conference lol okay I'm in on that for $20 .. 

Good luck!

Love and on NC State +1200. Will sprinkle Va Tech out of PSU fandom respect for Pry (and to your point, why not in the division)

@JozKnows

Yeah I mean it could go down in flames there's not much to sink our teeth into with the roster changes even the fan sites don't quite know what to make of all the changes .. could be bad for sure but that's why if we get surprised we also get paid .. def not a situation we're gunna tie up a bunch of money to get -110 on an RSW hoping they don't suck lol .. 

^^^ I'm referring to VT of course not NC State lol 

@JozKnows

 And well now come to think of it odds are 25-1 for the division but 150-1 to win the conference so umm .. 

VIRGINIA TECH ACC CHAMPS 150-1 (CZRs)

This is really my longshot division play for the coastal, I'm seeing 25-1 out there for the division on fan duel and seen as low as 33-1 for the conference .. the gamble taking this is the opponent won't be more than -600 ML and we can hedge out effectively and pretty sure if they manage to get there the odds to win the last game will be nearly THAT long .. end of the day this prob gets us 50 or 75-1 if we fully hedge out before the champ game instead of 25-1 offered for the division, maybe even better who knows .. 150-1 is actually a totally ridiculous number to put on just about any team right now unless they have a sure thing like bama in the conference to justify it and I don't think any such team exists in the ACC right now .. so yeah its a long shot but for those odds its a play for a hundo and hope for a fun ride .. also jumping the gun early because I think there is zero chance we'll see these odds again when others release their conf / division odds .. back to reality for a moment yeah VT is def on my list of teams that prob suck this year but whatever, new coach new qb new attitude and that is a familiar recipe we've seen from the likes of conf champs Baylor, N.ILL, Utah State last year .. 

WASHINGTON STATE PAC CHAMP 100-1 (BoL)

Another ridiculous odds number asking to be bet and actually something to like about the Coogs this year ... Oregon obvi the odds on behemoth we need to get by in the North but there's a HUGE shakeup in Eugene this year between players / coaches, Nix coming in and he might work better in the PAC but haven't seen any reason to be super optimistic if I'm a ducks fan .. plus ALOT of the bright spots from LY's team xferred out, Micah Pittman, Travis Dye, DJ James ... 17 total most got picked up by some pretty good programs still losing more in the last few weeks.. They do replace some of that but big shakeup nonetheless .. LY the Coogs and Beavs had exactly zero expectations to be competitive and both found their way to shots for the division down the stretch .. how exactly Idk but they were a win away. The fuel to kick start the fire for Wazzoo this year is a fresh start with Dickert at HC (former Wyoming DC) moved up from DC last year and had a hodgepodge of guys actually playing some pretty sticky pass D that made it real tricky putting drives together on them, and 'pretty good' is not far off on that side of the ball .. The real fuel for the fire needs to come on offense and they bring in legit super stud QB from the FCS Incarnate Word, was a top QB in HS and LIT IT UP at UIW, and also bring in his head coach to be the OC in Pullman .. This is not unlike the model W.Kentucky used last year and while I called for Kitley and Zappe to turnaround the offense from WORST TO AWESOME last year I must admit I didn't know pre-ssn we were looking at a CZAR BOMBA that would go on to set the FBS record for pass yds and touchdowns .. Anyway I have a similar feeling here I did with the Hills .. 

Schedule not easy but they get Oregon on the Palouse and ducks get that one sandwiched between BYU and Stanford (who beat Oreg LY!!) which could make for maybe a bit of a tricky spot .. Get Utah in Pullman the week after they play USC which is def not a good place to be emotionally hungover .. ASU always finds a way to tank a November game up in the northwest you can mark your calendar by that .. USC is the BIG road game and very likely L but it is also sandwiched between ASU w Utah on deck .. and close out w the Apple Cup at home .. I do like the prospects of Wash being better with new HC DeBoer but still another big team in the North going thru their own transition .. Conf schedule is tough for sure landing USC/Utah in X division but home schedule and spots are favorable so this def ain't Mount Everest..  Coogs do need quite a few things to get plugged in and work right away and of course have a little luck... but all the elements of surprise are there to at least win the division and give us a decent payday hedging some of this bet and have a bit leftover to maybe hit a jackpot .. Seeing Wazzoo conf odds as low as 12-1 (WTF?!!) on totally absurd rip-off sites like barstool, so happy to grab this action now .. def won't be around later .. 

Fan Duel droppin nearly a full list of RSW's for the power five now including B12 / PAC and ND which we haven't seen yet .. besides the ILL schools the ILL FD site has to leave out it looks like they also left out Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State .. seen at least one other book leave Maryland off their B10 RSW's and think we saw last year some of the folks left out are when the books lean a little higher than what their computer numbers are telling them .. alot of books left N'Western off during covid year when it was apparent they could have a huge bounce back from a horrific 2019 .. Rutgers was let out on quite a few last year with RSW at 4 available at most others and they had what looked like 3 easy wins and at least 2 more strong lean if they were not total duds again .. that's why I took it anyway and they ended up beating Temple, Rutgers and Delaware pretty easy .. got by ILL to make it 4 W's but didn't hit the money shot losing to NW .... but then caught Indy in the middle of their slide to win us money .. 

Easy to see why books want to get a handle on Maryland before dropping numbers out there with Tua Jr and a high returning production on offense (which books know gamblers paying alot of attn too) and actually recruiting at a pretty decent level, much higher than what you'd expect given what we've seen from them the last few years, and always seem to be a 'this is their year' team heading into the seen .. Baylor / Iowa St is not a surprise two teams with a level of coaching that can take a gang of 3 stars and compete for the conference, or win it in Baylor's case .. IA State was really not bad LY but flew way under expectations in the W/L column last year while Baylor defied gravity in every way and both starting lineups got a little gutted this year .. def a couple tricky handicaps there .. 

Anyway here's B12 and PAC w the OVER odds listed .. def seems like like they kinda rushed these numbers out and scrunching the RSWs so no team has too many wins here and then playing around with the odds .. USC 8.5 at -190 to go over for example .. good luck!
 
NOTRE DAME 9.5 +140 .. -170 to go under .. shux .. 

OKLAHOMA 9.5 +120
OK.STATE 8.5 +125
TEXAS 8.5 -125
TCU 6.5 EVEN
K-STATE 5.5 -140
TEXAS TECH 5.5 -105
W.VIRGINIA 5.5 +120
KANSAS 2.5 -135

OREGON 9.5 -130
UCLA 8.5 -135
USC 8.5 -190
UTAH 8.5 EVEN 
ARIZONA STATE 7.5 +130
WASHINGTON 7.5 -155
OREGON 6.5 -140
CALIFORNIA 5.5 EVEN
WASHINGTON STATE 5.5 +140 
STANFORD 4.5 +120
COLORADO 3.5 +140
ARIZONA 2.5 -165 .. 

PURDUE RSW OVER 7 -110 (CZRs)

Team stepped up last year and played much better than past years with alot of the same players and season outlook .. Aiden O'connell played really well against the meat of the schedule and would be nice insurance having Plummer too but think we can say his transferring is a testament to O'Connell's command on the QB1 spot .. Purdue won the advanced stat battle last year vs their schedule in numerous categories even vs Minny which ended in a L .. obvi a monster hit losing Bell but most of the corps is back and recall that bowl game vs a very good Tenn team .. Bell and Wright both out .. RB room depleted as it had been most of the year .. Vols highly motivated should smok'em right? .. even with a crappy day running under a hundred yds / under 3/carry guess who found a way to hang 530 yds passing and win that game? .. Broc Thompson was prob 7th on the team in receiving then BOOM 217 yds, and he's a guy everyone on the team was talking about in the spring .. We are helped big time if they can find a run game, xfer Sampson from Indy didn't play LY and they were super shallow at RB before Horvath got injured early on .. think it'll be tough to be that bad running the ball again but even with a super crappy run game they found ways to win games they and be competitive in some losses .. Defense loses Karlaftis and that's a hit too but there was a total change in attitude with the two coordinators in last year Hagan and Lambert in from Marshall .. Lambert is gone to be Wake's DC and has his work cut out for him there but they keep Hagan and bring in Larry English safeties coach last couple years at Florida .. much rather have kept Lambert but watching them work in the spring game even w a bunch of guys out they looked pretty solid and any drop off shouldn't be too nasty w 70+% ret production on that side .. We've heard it before "this is brohm's year" when we had no real proof it would turn .. finally we see the improvement and really starting to sniff a shot at the division, big bowl win and yeah 2 first round draft picks stings but everyone on the team now see's if you play well at Purdue big things can happen .. its a very motivating setup .. 

Schedule kicks off home vs Penn State and Caesars already clue'd in showing us Purdue +4 in that one! I think most people would just expect Penn St  to be a stronger likely win maybe a full TD line is how I'd guess people are probably calc'ing their RSW odds for that game .. big home upset to kick off the year and I think we can almost lock in a tie and strong lean to hit 8+ wins .. got 3 more pretty good game FCS Indy State, @Cuse, Fla Atlantic .. @MD, @ILL, NU, @INDY round out the spots I think they'll be favs or could be tight @MD and we'll see what Indy brings this year .. so 7 real good shots and we got .. Penn St -4 at home as its being lines, @Minn, Neb, @Wisco, Iowa all very winnable games = lotta shots left over even if they tank @MD or we get surprised @Cuse, etc .. also suspect there's a chance Penn State, Wisco and Iowa might not be leveling up this year and good chance two of those three level down a bit from LY .. def gunna shop division odds for these guys .. would have to be humongously huger conf odds expecting OSU to be their opponent tho .. 

@Bridge1

That's Ron English, not Larry, and he came in before 2021 season. Did a great job for Michigan back when Lloyd Carr was coach.

Purdue is on my radar too, have to find a running game though. Defense should be tough. 

Disappointed line is only +4 vs Penn St. The Lions have won the last 9 meetings. 

^^ Oh forgot to add .. why take Purdue RSW now? .. already seeing 7.5's and I suspect market comes to its senses on them as books start really sharpening lines on their season games, etc .. think its 7.5 and could also see odds get stretched .. I just don't think we're gunna see too many 7's with better odds and think its a good deal for this team very tough to keep them to only 6 W's and think great chance we get at least a tie at 7 if not blow past it .. good spot / good enough odds  ..

@UNIMAN

ha yeah good catch Ron Larry lol  .. yeah he's had some big jobs Mich and Florida had alot of big time players over the years hope he can mold the so-so caliber boiler kids  .. idk we'll see I really liked the prospect of Lambert staying another year the way things kinda turned around quickly LY .. we'll see .. def gotta think about his move to wake forest, plenty of room to make a big jump on D over there! .. 

WISCONSIN RSW UNDER 9 -115 (CZRs)

Wisco def has a killer RB in Allen but Mertz is really shaping up to be a sure thing dud .. Badgers also hired Bobby Engram (NFL TE/WR position coach) to be the new OC .. and QB's coach, and sounds like maybe playcaller too .. and they want him to spice up the playbook .. he's never done any of those things in his career or played QB so thats a move that can really go sideways or take more than a year to start clicking .. also lost top 2 WRs and their good TE went pro .. Wisco not a place a receiver or QB is dying to play so I'll bet they don't replenish with late portal splashes .. We have been able to count on a SUPER ELITE D the last few years but a little diff this year not bringing back the MASSIVE ret production .. 8 of top 12 tacklers out some been starting 3 or 4 years .. I'd trust Leonhard to have a pretty good D put together but any kinda slip to pretty good like a top 15ish or worse from top 3 and it won't just be the offense losing games for them anymore .. Just see this as a rebooting restocking resetting kinda year .. Mertz performs poorly and there's no reason not to give QB backups a go at it and test that depth on D .. Also Allen was a true Fr LY so I believe he'll be draft eligible in '24 so it could be tempting to get more experience this year if things aren't clicking off the bat .. 

Any Wisco backer really needs to remember what happened when Allen got injured LY for that Minny game which didn't lack motivation playing for the division, win and yer in the conf champ game .. the offense went from 2 or 300 yds / game to 62 .. 2.5/carry .. Mertz had a terrible day 55% completion 170 yds .. 4.5 yds / attempt 1 pick .. not rooting ever for an injury but easy to see just how steep the cliff was and how close they were to it LY .. Chez Melushi was a decent RB most of the year although kinda hit and miss on the Y/carry, he still was on his way to 1000 yds before an ACL tear .. he's "hoping to be ready" for season opener and that's what they all say this time of year .. Berger was a promising freshman xferred out .. possible other backups from LY may emerge but there's no sure things to take over the top spot or as quality #2's in the RB room this year ..  

Think we take this RSW now because I doubt we're gunna see too many 9's out there even if the RSW 8.5 is catching odds and kinda leaning that way .. actually feel like books are baiting us with 8.5 when Wisco's schedule does feel like a good shot to hit that at first glance .. I suspect Wash State could be trouble early but the schedule really does make for Wisco to get off to a 5-1 start w OSU roadie looking like a sure thing loss .. also fair to chalk up MD as a win at home although they could be tougher this year .. 6-1 and they gotta win 3 of the remaining 5 to tie me at 9, 4 of 5 to beat me .. @Mich St, Purdue, @Iowa, @Neb, Minny .. Just does not at all feel like a 10 win season. Might end up tying me at 9 but think very good shot there's a freak stumble along the way, the kind Wisco seems to always have at least one for the past many years .. 

WASHINGTON STATE RSW OVER 5.5 +140

Pretty much laid this case out up top in post #16 .. thought its would be 6 or so .. 5.5 and grabbing those odds was a max out deal over at fan duel .. I took a quick look at the spring game and my dude Cam is every bit as much the half Cam Half Lamar he was at UIW .. I know its a spring game but you can see they brought his coordinator over and the question was really about supporting cast, does he gel with them, etc .. Offense looks really good and surprised to see at least one and maybe 2 other QB's pick this system up and looked good doing it so there's some insurance behind our guy because he is a scrambler and injury risk is there with a guy like this .. But otherwise my dude still got it, looking like some of the great magicians in CFB history like Mariotta, Mcnabb or even Mccall or Malik Willis during that covid year .. O does kinda look like a similar air raid to Liberty but didn't see as much QB running the way Malik did .. expected in spring, Cam is gunna TORCH teams during the season .. arm can sling it at weird angles and its on a dime every time .. WR's and RB's look like a pretty sick receiving corps too the scheme just has guy open and otherwise physically look good lotta lenghy WR's coming down with the ball .. Lincoln Victor from Hawaii is a great target .. just gunna be a lotta bogies to cover PAC 12 D's be on notice .. 

Defense was acutally not bad either never intercepted Cam in the spring game but did grab 4 picks vs the backup QB's and DE's making some legit plays .. wasn't exactly much power running in this scheme so def tough to gauge what the D will look like but Dickert had these guys outperforming last year and 70% of that D is back its just a huge formula to make a big step .. even if not I think the big step on O is gunna more than take care of my needs here .. 

Schedule is tough and 5.5 would make sense as a starting place if not knowing much about the new offense .. Idaho FCS home before heading to Camp Randall .. read last post and idk after previewing the spring game nothing would surprise me but fine chalk it up as a loss for RSW sake .. think Col state at home is a must win / should win .. but tough spot w monster game on deck for the coogs w Oregon coming to town .. that's sandwiched between BYU and Stanford and maybe likely loss there but Oregon better have a plan for this guy or even they could be a victim on the road .. hope its at least 2-2 at that point .. got games they can really matchup in with CAL, @OREG ST, @STAN, ASU, @ARIZ, WASH and tougher ones @USC, UTAH .. Wazoo is a sandwich for USC between ASU and Utah...  also Utah plays them on the road right after their USC matchup .. pretty tricky spots .. I can't call for surprise wins on any of the tougher games but even if they go 0-4 vs Wisco, Oreg, USC, Utes I think they do end up pulling one of them .. plenty of ways to still hit this one if not .. I got Stan, and ASU as likely downgrades this year and Wash should level up, only direction for the O to go, but D may take a hit too .. Oreg State is dangerous but I'm feeling pretty good that we can hit 6 here .. 

My hope is we have other books putting out 5's and scrapping the big odds for 5.5 .. it seems very unlikely this team will only bag 4 or fewer wins this year and at 5 there's only upside .. Whole thing reminds me ALOT of how W.KY went from worst offense in CFB in '20 to breaking passing records in '21 .. we had the same RSW 5.5 but it was a tougher schedule for the Hilltoppers with alot more 'sure thing' losses in the first few games .. other books drop a 5 on us for reasonable odds and no hesitation i'll be going super max again .. def my fav pre-ssn bet right here .. 

UTAH RSW OVER 8.5 +100 (FAN DUEL)

Don't need to muse too much on why I like this one I think Utes have a goal of running the table this year and I think they could very well do that.  .. Every so often Utah brings a boatload of guys back and Whittingham and Scallywag really know how to maximize the value from the returning production and there was just no answer anywhere in the conference to what they were doing once things got going, team was far and away better than anyone in the PAC last year.. Spots def get tougher w @Florida opener and Oregon on the road and USC probably tougher too .. they can conceivably lose all 3 and hit 9 wins but I think they show up in gainsville and lay the wood in that one Gators might be a few games away from playing to their potential w the new coaching regime in there and the D is not supposed to be very good / lotta inexperience vs Utah which is a highly experienced machine ... think they will prob trade a W and an L between Oregon and SC but I don't see another team that should be within a TD of these guys when the lines set maybe UCLA at home could be but they're a ways off from showing they are consistent enough to be lined close and Utes also smoked em last year .. Utes did have a freak loss last year on the road with Oreg State where they were deadly but think it'll be tough for Utah to lose not going -1 if not -2 to in TO's for most opponents to have a chance .. 

Fan duel dropped their RSW numbers out and today is first im seeing them .. seems like they didn't put too much time into these for the PAC when they were the only ones posting .. def don't think they realize how good this team is shaping up to be and prob see heavier odds at 8.5 when other books come out and maybe more likely start seeing RSW's at 9 is my guess .. 

REG SSN WINS:
UTAH RSW OVER 8.5 +100 (FAN)
PURDUE RSW OVER 7 -110 (CZRs)
CLEMSON UNDER 10.5 +110 (CZRs)
MISSOURI RSW OVER 5 +115 (CZRs)
WISCONSIN RSW UNDER 9 -115 (CZRs)
WASH STATE RSW OVER 5.5 +140 (FAN)

Add: TENNESSEE OVER 7.5 -105 (CZRs)

Put my notes up top in post #7 and feel pretty good at 7.5 just laying the -105.. Jordan Addison leaving is a huge hit for Pitt and makes that revenge roadie all the more likely .. Very good chance they beat Florida at home too and then its 5-0 and a whole lotta ways to get to 8 wins at that point with LSU, UT Martin, Kentucky, Mizz, S.Car, and Vandy left on the schedule... I think we'll be in business... even with a Florida whiff they can bag this with UT Martin and hit those final 3 for the win.. playing now because my guess is it moves to 8 after the pre-ssn mags drop .. They're def gunna make everyone extra horny for Hooker this year .. 

CONF FUTURES:
NC STATE ACC CHAMP 12-1 (CZRs)
VIRGINIA TECH ACC CHAMPS 150-1 (CZRs)
WASHINGTON STATE PAC CHAMP 100-1 (BoL)

NATTY:
GEORGIA +475 (BoL)