BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 8

WK7 RECAP
BP 1-0, YTD 7-11
SM 3-2, YTD 19-19

BRIDGE PLAYS

FAU / ARMY OVER 54.5 

SMALLER

FAU +3 
GA.STATE +11.5 
COLORADO +17.5 
JMU / GA.STATE OVER 53.5 
KANSAS / K-STATE OVER 54.5 

Eh .. little better .. had a tough time finding things worth posting about, had a few ideas but nothing I felt super dialed in .. 

FAU / ARMY .. Total was over I think by halftime or thereabouts .. The big worry was of course FAU turning 'WILD' and not in a good way and that's pretty much what we saw from the very first play .. man - o - man when things go bad for them wooooah nellie turn into worst team ever .. we were hoping the receiving prowess would be too much for Army to handle but too many dud plays killed that .. also expected the defense to be just somewhat capable of stopping those guys a few times .. Army went 5 possessions 5 TD's in H1 .. didn't exactly end there .. 

GA State .. total over woulda been a BP too I just didn't see a way for that to be a low 50's scoring game but couldn't get much down before the number launched .. I liked the idea of GA-State hangin in this one but clearly can't rely on a one man show on offense .. just like FAU their fates were sealed after an early first turnover .. sheeeez .. 

Colorado .. stats say they shoulda been STEEEEEM-ROOLLLED .. but they hung in there and very gutty performance .. 

Kansas / K-ST .. another SUPER FAST start but this slowed way down after H1 .. felt like KU had a foothold on this game but then everytime I look up K-ST has the ball driving and .. welp they lose big in another sunflower showdown .. trend is your friend on that one and judging how the line dropped from like +7.5 I'd say books cleaned up on that one .. think the line closed like +3.5 or so .. another biiiig mover the book had right a full week prior .. 

SMALLER

LSU -5.5

Just gunna grit my teeth here and lay points with these turds on the road .. its a must win spot for LSU and Auburn coming off a historic monster unbelievable win on the road at UGA .. the spots in the SEC have been playin pretty solid so gunna take a chance here Aub off a rough n tumble brawl is a step slower on this one .. 

TEXAS -3.5

Same idea here sorta.. I mean holy smokes this team is teetering on the brink of being out of the playoffs .. Texas with that MASSIVE roster cost and got bills to pay .. we've seen Ole Miss in tough spots already and here they are off the BIG win and going on the road .. 4th n 1 at the 50 vs UF turnover on downs was just such a turning point and Texas at home plenty motivated to win after losing to OU in the rivalry and I think losing on the road to UF in this exact same spot coming off OU last year which was pretty much the game that pushed them out of the playoffs and solidified Little Archie as not a true 'Man-ning' ..  Texas and Oklahoma offenses just massive in the disappointment department .. still .. playing the spot smaller .. love trinidad chamblis and they got their good RB back so once again gritting the teeth .. its also not a 'big' smaller play here ..

UCF +7.5

Another teeth grinding play .. but again BYU off historic massive win and just makes for a vulnerable spot .. its unclear if they get LJ Martin back I think they have a WR out too maybe but I did see quite a few other players get banged up last game and count on the intensity of last week to have some impact on the road this week .. what I do like is UCF's Keionte Jenkins completes at a fairly high % even if he doesn't have the big time WR's to work with .. we also see they have a fairly solid defense that limited Houston on the road and TCU .. UCF off a bye ready to receive these guys .. I will say BYU fought thru alot of tough spots the last few years and hard to say they'll crap out all the way here .. def want this over a TD .. good luck!

SMALLER

STANFORD +7.5

Ugh .. I really don't want to play this one but NC State hasn't been on the road since Sept 19th so will be ~35 days since last one, cross country layin over a TD .. they are off a bye but Stan is off Elon basically both teams got a break in the action .. Stan has had alot of trouble getting blown to smithereeens trying not to lose by 40+ vs some teams .. the D stinks .. Davis Warren is the key he had a solid night vs GT at home and I'd look for something similar here .. Wolfpack has shown they can rise up and beat a team like louisville and shoulda beat Vandy and decent enough G5'er App State .. quality goes way down vs better teams .. Davis Warren also just 2 picks this year and can control the sack numbers outside of @Wake and @Duke .. Baily throws more picks and gets sacked more often each game .. I wouldn't expect much sacking in this one but might be worth taking 7.5 with less propensity for turnovers .. Also expect this could be higher scoring .. 

FUN BET 

STANFORD ML/O56.5 6-1

Might be tooo many points especailly if what we want is a stanford win because this total is really proped up by the big scoring of Stan opponents .. nonetheless I think this could be a tit for tat paddy-whack give a Tree a bone wolfpack back n forth dose-e-doe score fest .. and I like the spot here for Stan at home and long travel for Wolfpack big friday night game and NC State hasn't been on the road for many weeks .. GO TREE!

SMALLER

RICE +10.5

Feels like we just saw this game.. FAU's run D was putrid vs the option and Army QB had a historic day .. I'd tend to say go under here Rice's offense stalls out quite often but tends to really muck games up and FAU is not a very smooth operation this year .. total can swing wildly with both of these Owl teams, sometimes quick strike killers and sometimes too much hooting around .. I do see there might be some wind blowing thru Florida on Saturday, just another reason to hold off on the total because I don't know Rice will be quite as efficient scoring as Army was last week .. It did seem like wind might have impacted FAU and that's a team when they get impacted negatively things can go haywire on steroids in a hurry .. I'd consider this for small dollar ML parlay for sure .. pairing them up with Stanford ML for ~15-1 for the pair to hit .. 

FUN BET

STAN ML, RICE ML 15-1

byu seems to find a way in these games but I’m with you on spot, a bye week to prepare & byu coming off that win then traveling

Can UCF possess the ball here in your opinion ? it does have a 16-13 type of feel to it initially but I’m gonna look into it more 

BRIDGE PLAY

NORTH TEXAS -1

Gotta really like this UNT team starting with the offensive prowess of Jahiem White and Tevyn Jackson .. but they also seem like a relatively complete team when I watched them vs Tulsa going on the road mid week night game and when they got in a groove they were nasty on both sides of the ball .. Navy also has a relatively stinky field goal kicker and punter .. the hope is UNT can get them to use them rather than letting their offense keep pace .. I think UNT wins on defensive ability too Navy's pass rush and secondary stinks so UNT should have an upper hand with their pass game .. SP+ has navy as the better team but I think we see UNT's schedule early on and where they started from vs where Navy was early on and we see the gap has closed to within 3 points or so .. total is 61.5 so we're expecting fireworks .. im hoping we get some good tackling out of UNT .. their Run D has been pretty solid outside of their game @Texas State, even Indy was held to a decently low rush total and 4.5/carry .. they've held UNLV, Tulsa and of course Charlotte to very low production .. hope it's tough sledding here for a team who has been very pass-averse that is really pass-averse ... UNT also with decently tough schedule beating opponents in overall TFL's 37 to 22 and sacks 15 to 5 .. beating opponents in 3rd down stats, run stats, pass stats .. 15-4 ratio passing is solid gotta limit turnovers here and think UNT off a bye keeps their conf hopes alive .. I def think UNT can be the team punching a ticket to the conf champ game later this year and right now no reason to think they cant win it .. plenty of reasons to think they might show up as the favorite .. 

@WahooS

 Woo-hoo WA-HOOOO ... good to hear from you buddy .. 

I mean I faded them vs TCU and Houston and grace of the football gods I had -9.5 and Houston got their act together at home .. I didn't have much time to check injuries and all that I'm sure I'll be surprised to find out half the starters broke their legs in practice last week or something .. 

Kionte Jenkins has been a surprise completing at a high rate and keeping drives alive .. but yeah I mean its the spot man and you hope that D can show up and play nasty here because they've frustrated a few teams already .. blew their chance for a signature win @Houston so here's take 2 in a red carpet spot catching over a TD .. I just xx'd my fingers and played it because hard to imagine 7.5 was gunna be around for long .. 

Good to hear from you dude .. GOOD LUCK! 

@Bridge1

 Yep. UCF Is now +6.5....nice line you got +7.5...well played...

Good luck Bridge.  

@Bridge1

 Martin about 2-3 weeks away...