Bama/Georgia National Championship Insight

Question

This game more so than any other game is one I always look forward to. And in this particular one, it's raised my eyebrow because of the line. It jumps out at you! When I saw the line at -3.5 and -4, I said wait a second here! How over the last two years was Bama 7 POINT FAVORITES over two Clemson teams, two Clemson teams that were light years better than this Georgia team?! I'm not taking anything away from Georgia here because I think they are a good team but how are they only dogs by 3-4 points when Clemson was 7 point dogs two years in a row?! There is nothing anyone on here can tell me that justifies this line so what are the books trying to do here? Thy sure in the h@ll aren't trying to get even money on this game. They sure in the h@ll aren't gonna give out a gift to the public tonite. Not in this game! Are we gonna see a Bama win but a Bama win by 1,2 or 3? That could definitely happen. For the last three years, the books have taken the spread, ML and full game total. Remember that for tonite folks! I know that because I've cleaned house all three times for those who who have been here and can remember. Back to the line though: it just doesn't add up and as seen in the data from multiple sources so far, the public is all over the Tide here. No surprise!

Bama is healthy now. They get arguably the second best player in the country back, Fitzpatrick, and that only makes it tougher for Fromm to put the game on his shoulders. We all know Saban will key on the run tonite so can the Freshman make the throws? If he can't, oh boy. On the other hand, is Hurts that good? Can he make the downfield throws as Smart will most likely make him put the game on his shoulders due to him keying on stopping their run game? Not sure. I like Hurts but he is not a great pocket passer. Plain and simple. Turnovers will be huge as will special teams. They always are in this particular game and when you look at the experience factor, how does that not point to Bama big time in this game? Again, why only a 4 point spread though? It's odd!

When I look at how this game will unfold IF Bama comes out fast and gets ahead, I don't see a sequel to the Oklahoma game where Georgia claws back. Nope. Bama has a defense unlike Oklahoma and their boys up front are grown men! So it is imperative Georgia comes out and establishes themselves first in the first half. Think about this from a books stabdpoint. REGARDLESS of the score in this one at the half, the majority of the money will be on Bama second half. So for me, IF THE BOOKS WANT TO CLEAN HOUSE TONITE, Georgia leads at half, Bama chasers double up pointing to the experience factor and Saban and they get crushed with Georgia pulling away. Not saying that will happen but it would be the easy way of collecting a ton. I'm torn here as Saban is going for number 6. He laid over late last year for his buddy Dabo so is he gonna do it two years in a row for his buddy Smart? That would be nuts. Saban gave a national championship away last year and he lost the late this year leaving it up to the committee to vote them in. Are he and Bama gonna move to the side for a freshman qb? Not sure but as I look at this game, I continue to try and find reasons why this line is so low. Can't wait for the game; plays to come later.

Achilles1629 · Answer

This game more so than any other game is one I always look forward to. And in this particular one, it's raised my eyebrow because of the line. It jumps out at you! When I saw the line at -3.5 and -4, I said wait a second here! How over the last two years was Bama 7 POINT FAVORITES over two Clemson teams, two Clemson teams that were light years better than this Georgia team?! I'm not taking anything away from Georgia here because I think they are a good team but how are they only dogs by 3-4 points when Clemson was 7 point dogs two years in a row?! There is nothing anyone on here can tell me that justifies this line so what are the books trying to do here? Thy sure in the h@ll aren't trying to get even money on this game. They sure in the h@ll aren't gonna give out a gift to the public tonite. Not in this game! Are we gonna see a Bama win but a Bama win by 1,2 or 3? That could definitely happen. For the last three years, the books have taken the spread, ML and full game total. Remember that for tonite folks! I know that because I've cleaned house all three times for those who who have been here and can remember. Back to the line though: it just doesn't add up and as seen in the data from multiple sources so far, the public is all over the Tide here. No surprise!

Bama is healthy now. They get arguably the second best player in the country back, Fitzpatrick, and that only makes it tougher for Fromm to put the game on his shoulders. We all know Saban will key on the run tonite so can the Freshman make the throws? If he can't, oh boy. On the other hand, is Hurts that good? Can he make the downfield throws as Smart will most likely make him put the game on his shoulders due to him keying on stopping their run game? Not sure. I like Hurts but he is not a great pocket passer. Plain and simple. Turnovers will be huge as will special teams. They always are in this particular game and when you look at the experience factor, how does that not point to Bama big time in this game? Again, why only a 4 point spread though? It's odd!

When I look at how this game will unfold IF Bama comes out fast and gets ahead, I don't see a sequel to the Oklahoma game where Georgia claws back. Nope. Bama has a defense unlike Oklahoma and their boys up front are grown men! So it is imperative Georgia comes out and establishes themselves first in the first half. Think about this from a books stabdpoint. REGARDLESS of the score in this one at the half, the majority of the money will be on Bama second half. So for me, IF THE BOOKS WANT TO CLEAN HOUSE TONITE, Georgia leads at half, Bama chasers double up pointing to the experience factor and Saban and they get crushed with Georgia pulling away. Not saying that will happen but it would be the easy way of collecting a ton. I'm torn here as Saban is going for number 6. He laid over late last year for his buddy Dabo so is he gonna do it two years in a row for his buddy Smart? That would be nuts. Saban gave a national championship away last year and he lost the late this year leaving it up to the committee to vote them in. Are he and Bama gonna move to the side for a freshman qb? Not sure but as I look at this game, I continue to try and find reasons why this line is so low. Can't wait for the game; plays to come later.

Lets_Get_em · Answer

BOL Achilles

usikbasterd · Answer

i was thinking the same. at first i was like "bama all day" but the line is shady. it also went down from -4 to -3.5 when i know public is hammering them. i took UGA, im gonna go against everybody. even though saban &gt; kirby smart, id take fromm (Even tho hes a freshman) over hurts all day. that UGA defense is as good as clemson if not better. not only that, UGA has 2 STUD RBS that clemson doesnt have, so that should present a different challenge for bama

OverAmbassador · Answer

Bama had the opportunity to blow up the scoreboard against Clemson but they went on and played conservative..playing for the win. Saban will play conservative tonight again. If he&#x27;s up he will rely on his defense to stop them and not his offense to get points. Saban will play to win the game tonight, not play to make a statement. 4.5 is too many points. I see this being a 3-4 point game with bama stopping them on the last drive to win

BeeRich · Answer

always a good read.  GL on the Champ game Achilles. Already took Bama -4.5.  We shall see.

-LB- · Answer

Bol tonight brother!

UNIMAN · Answer

"They sure in the h@ll aren&#x27;t gonna give out a gift to the public tonite. Not in this game! Are we gonna see a Bama win but a Bama win by 1,2 or 3? That could definitely happen.For the last three years, the books have taken the spread, ML and full game total. Remember that for tonite folks! "What exactly are you saying here?Last year&#x27;s Clemson victory was the worst one game LOSS by WilliamHill in their history. It was a gift making Bama -7, maybe they&#x27;re "gun shy" this year, don&#x27;t wanna give that &#x2B;7 to Georgia.

WISEGUY36 · Answer

Good Luck tonight

yorosan · Answer

Only one reason the line is so low because this game is playing in Atlanta....homefield advantage maybe??

Achilles1629 · Answer

Yes, correct. Last year they did get killed. My bad. Two of three ain&#x27;t bad though.

OlDirtyBaztid · Answer

great read, amigo. i 100% agree with you here. best of luck tonight. my money is on the dawgs!

Achilles1629 · Answer

The line imo has nothing to do with last year's. If the books were trying to save themselves from a beatdown, why have the line at 4? Bama only needs to win by 5? Really? That right there isn't exposing themselves to a world of hurt? Done say puting it at 7 would expose them more. I disagree simply because regardless of the line, of anywhere from 4-6, you will get Bama money. For me, this line should be at at least 6/6.5 Bama because nobody can tell me this Georgia team based off numbers and what we saw the last two years from both Clemson teams is better. No way. Think about it for a second:

Let's be neutral here and list the so called advantages here:

Bama:

3rd year in a row in the big game

Extra motivation from losing last year

Teacher vs pupil

Saban going for #6?!

A qb who has been there before

# 1 run defense in the nation

Georgia:

Smart knows Saban probably better than anyone

Confidence in facing a high potent offense and shutting them down in the second half against Oklahoma

It may seem that I'm being unfair here to Georgia but what am I missing here? I mean we can get ultra ultr specific but I'm listing the obvious ones here. So when you look at these tangibles and intangibles how is this line only 3.5/4?! Again, so many are looking at this and simply hitting submit on bama. EVERYONE I talk to says Saban. EVERYONE. And as this games gets closer to kickoff, where do you think the money will continue to go? Not Georgia's way!

Here is where I'm at right now: with the data so lopsided on Bama ML and Spread, I have two choices I'm contemplating. Bama ML or Georgia Spread. I can totally see this game ending at 1,2 or 3. I can also see the books easily taking the total as well. If this happens, Saban gets his, the books get 2 of 3 and I'd expect they take first hand and second half bets as well. The books will clean up here but they can do that even if Bama wins by 1,2 or 3. The idiots in this forum will say don't think too much on this one; it's easy. Well, there are multiple bets one can submit, I'm looking for the best one. If Bama wins and covers the books have no choice but to take almost EVERY OTHER BIG BET out there. If you see the books take a hit bad in the first half then I would be very very surprised if Georgia didn't win and cover. We'll see what happens......

Onthereal · Answer

Can&#x27;t get a handle on this year&#x27;s game yet buddy. Last year was the biggest bet I&#x27;ve ever hit with Clemson. Not so easy this year imo.&#xA;Weaker Bama team and similar styles make it hard for me at least. Hurts is still Hurts and stinks imo lol.&#xA; &#xA;Gl with whatever you decide, I may have something later on.

Onthereal · Answer

Game may hinge on Special Teams and Georgia has a big advantage there imo.&#xA;Saban doesn&#x27;t recruit kickers evidently ha.

tweets50 · Answer

This is a home game for Georgia. An hour and a half away from Atlanta. Fromm will put on a show tonight, unless &#x27;bama can pressure and hurry his passes. We saw what &#x27;bama can do to tpressure, from the last game vs Clemson. I believe this line is low for the freshman phenom and home field advantage. I do not believe Georgia can play defense the way the Tide can. &#x27;Bama weakness at the LB position due to injuries may hurt the run defense, but besides that DL is solid. OL handled Clemson DL well which is the #1 DL in CFB in my opinion. Bulldogs have a slew of weopons on offense with a accurate QB. However, they have not seen a defense like &#x27;bama. Who have they played as physical as Clemson??I can&#x27;t see myself on GA, but not surprised if they do win either. However, I have Bama ML -165.

Achilles1629 · Answer

Bama ML -165 is tough to pass up. I&#x27;d prolly take it too if it were offered. It&#x27;s up around -190/-200.

tweets50 · Answer

Yes A. I got in a 2 days ago. Just today alone up to -190 from -180 an hour ago. BOL on either side you chose.

Titusblink · Answer

Lets compare last years -6/6.5 with this years -3.5/4

1) weaker Bama team - say this is a wash with Clemson last year stronger than this year's Georgia ...

2) pseudo home game for Georgia - is this worth 2-2.5 points - this is what I keep wrestling with... How much of an advantage will this be for Georgia... And I go both ways and this is why it's such a hard game to cap for me....

I can't spend -200 on Bama with this level of uncertainty. Torn

mjm1012 · Answer

GOOD POINTSBUT THE BEST BET FOR TONIGHT IS NO SCORE IN THE FIRST 6.5 MINUTES -130 IMHO!ALSO, LEANING UNDER 23 FIRST HALFGOOD LUCK

Achilles1629 · Answer

Good stuff amigo.

joseuribe · Answer

Georgia went all in with a furious comeback and hard fought 2 OT game last week, while Alabama cruised conservatively for an easy win. I think fatigue could become a factor in the 2nd half of this game.

chucklazar · Answer

As an ex college coach, I see them both trying to stop the run.
Hurts is not as good a passer as Frohm. Hurts will have to scramble to get his players open.
Watching both of these teams play Auburn, Frohm was able to pass on Auburn and Hurts could not. That will also be the difference tonight.

mfrancesa · Answer

Bama just manhandled what was billed as the best D line in the country

Georgia ran up and down the field with a Big 12 team

Neither team played a very tough SEC schedule this year but I am far more impressed with what Bama did to get here. I think what people missed last year was how good Watson was. After a few NFL games we now know. I think we will be saying the same next year about some of these Bama players. Fromm COULD be that guy but he is just a Freshman and a Colt McCoy type comparison is more apt. But without THAT special guy you don't beat Bama. Bama doesn't need the great QB to beat GA. GA does need the great QB to beat Bama. Can they do it with the great RB, the next Hershel. Maybe. But that is a tough ask vs this run Defense. Best case for GA is they get 200 on the ground, keeping up with Bama and staying within 3. I don't see it though. You beat Bama by playing fast, keeping their big guys on the field as much as possible and tiring them out. I'm not betting that the freshman QB can keep the chains moving. And you play fast you risk mistakes vs a ball hawking defense out to score. I think this could get ugly

That said, I think they open it up a bit. We see how good Ridley is and that Hurts can throw a bit. Bama hits a big play early and it could get ugly. I like the over as the best bet

midnightrambler · Answer

Exactly  Joseuribe. I think  the  game  will  be close in the first  half but Alabama  will assert  it&#x27;s will with its smothering  defense  and run game in the second  half . Georgia had that double  OT game  and had to fly cross  country . To be honest , I was torn on Alabama  and Clemson . ..Really only liked the under...I think  Alabama  wins by 7 to 10 tonight .

tonyrome · Answer

To me, it is as simple as, this years team is not considered as dominate as the last few years. That has been brought up from the beginning of the season and still holds true.

Here are some random quotes (below)...I didn't have a lot of time but anyone who follows bama knows they are not considered as dominate as they once were.

Also, this should be a low scoring clock eating game and even if bama controls most of it, a late TD by Georgia could keep it close, like 3.

GL

If not for Iowa 55, Ohio State 24, would Alabama even be here? Would Saban be playing for his fifth national title in nine years with a team that has been hard to figure? Until Clemson happened, how many of us wondered if this Saban team that looked so flat against Auburn could run the gauntlet of Clemson, Oklahoma or Georgia?

If you're only as good as your last game, Alabama needs redemption in the worst way. The Iron Bowl epitomizes the hard road the Crimson Tide had to travel to reach the Sugar Bowl.

How many other programs could lose seven defensive starters to the NFL Draft before the season and 40 starts by eight different defensive starters to injuries during the season - and lose just one game?

Bama/Georgia National Championship Insight

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