Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

Beaver- yea I couldnt get lines till 2 or 3 am this morning and they would go off!!!

No worries bro .. My list is pretty decent but I missed a few myself .. Yale is a 65% is Brown still a play ????

Ok, I double-checked a couple posts here and below are my comments:

Beaver23

• No Play SMU open -13 on betonline KP -17, delta 4 must be 5+ at KP 17+
• No Play Texas open +2.5 on betonline KP +5, delta 2.5 must be 3+ for KP 4.5 to 8
• No Play Colorado open -1 on betonline KP +2, delta 2 must be 2.5+ for KP 0 to 4

Upside

• Add Duke, open -12 on betonline KP -7, delta 5 and meets 3+ criteria
• No Play SMU, see above (or give me data that says otherwise)
• No Play Texas, see above (or give me data that says otherwise)

Bobcat

• Add Marshall, open 2.5 on betonline KP 5, delta 2.5
• Add Tulsa, open -2 on BO KP 3, delta 5
• Add LA Monroe, open 7.5 on BO KP 12, delta 4.5
• Add PITT, open -2 on BO KP 1, delta 3
• Add Cal St Fullerton, open -2.5 on BO KP 1, delta 3.5
• Add N. AZ, open 3 on BO KP 6, delta 3
• Add Montana St., open -2.5 on BO KP 3, delta 5.5
• No Play Boise St., open -2.5 on BO KP -2, delta 0.5

If you dispute these movements please POST THE DATA THAT SO THAT WE CAN COME TO A CONSENSUS.

Yes, it is only when the team you are taking is over 65%.  Please just make sure to use the covers contest %s, I posted the link earlier.  Yale is over 65% there too.

Sorry, typo.  Colorado is KP +1.

How does the 65% consensus work ?? Is it our pick or kp pick ??

My internet is super choppy today, I can't help tighten anything up. Just gonna have to go with what we got and run with it.

BOL today! Keep making that money.

You just answered me thx .. I got Kansas - 2 1/2  opening line from betonline ..Kp Kansas -5 ..so you guys are using the KP not the opening line for the criteria 4 1/2 to 8 there must be a 3 point difference to qualify , right ??? I was using Vegas opening line .. Please let me know if that is correct ..

Correct, the KP line is used to determine the threshold levels.  In your example above, the threshold level is 4.5 to 8 since the KP line is -5.

Thanks bro !!!

I have Purdue a no play now !!!! Line opened +8 betonline .. KP +11 it has to be 3 1/2 point difference to qualify therefore o no play , right !!!

Its the vegas line opening line from what ive seen.

 

Maryland, Purdue through the noon games are plays. Looking over now. A real bitch writing down all the lines from vegas insider.

Guys , which is it .. Is it from the vegas opening line or Kp ... Someone confirm !!!!

First is the Opening Lines From Betonline followed by KP .. The Play will always be Vegas which is the opening line from Betonline ..

Temple -10 .... KP Temple -14 .. 4pt diff .. Play Mary

Villanova - 1 1/2 .. KP Villanova -5 ... Play St Johns

K ST - 2 1/2 ... KP - K ST - 6 .. Play OK ST

Yale - 3 1/2 ... KP - Yale -8 ... Play Brown

La Salle - 15 .. KP - 20 .. Play RI ... that will take some guts

Tex A/M - 3 1/2 ... KP .. OKLA -1 .. Play Tx A/M ..

George Mason - 24 1/2 ... KP George Mason - 19 .. Play George Mason ...

Iowa St - 4 1/2 .. KP ... Iowa St - 10 ... Play Texas Tech .. ouch ..

More a bit Later .. Please Verify/Confirm Anyone !!!

Stiffler is correct.  Vegas Opening Line to determine the thresholds / plays.  Too much going on this morning :)

 

i just got in to this thread yesterday and i think you guys got something here...a little bit hectic and confusing this morning....upside r these the final plays as of now???? i hit with the youngstown game last night... thanks...

1pm games are correct too I match up with Beavers picks.

sorry upside, trying to crunch the numbers fast. Your right too from what I see bro. Thanks for the work.

so is smu still a play???

one post says smu is a play then one says its not..im very confused

  For now .. yes .. more to come .. I always need a checkover from other more experienced guys in the thread to finalze all my plays though ..

Unofficial plays per my spreadsheet with the following caveats:

1) I have NOT looked at public sides so some of these might be no plays on the > 65% rule.

2) Levels are based on opening lines

3) I show the KP line and then the Opening Line per Vegas Insider.

4) ALWAYS VALIDATE YOUR OWN PLAYS WHEN BETTING!!!  We are all capable of typos and errors.  If you just blindly follow someone else's recommendation without understanding why, you deserve to lose your money.

Good luck...

11:00:00 AM  Maryland RD, KP 14, OL 10
12:00:00 PM  Purdue RD, KP 11, OL 8
1:00:00 PM  SMU RD, KP 17, OL 13
1:00:00 PM  St. John's HD, KP 5, OL 1.5
1:30:00 PM  OK ST HD, KP 6, OL 2.5
2:00:00 PM  Brown HD, KP 8, OL 3.5
3:00:00 PM  Indiana St. RD, KP 16, OL 12
4:00:00 PM  Duke HF, KP -8, OL -12
4:00:00 PM  Texas HD, KP 5, OL 2.5
4:00:00 PM  RI RD, KP 20, OL 15
4:00:00 PM  TAMU HF, KP 1, OL -3.5
5:00:00 PM  Utah HD, KP 9, OL 4.5
5:00:00 PM  Tex Tech HD, KP 10, OL 4.5
6:00:00 PM  Marshall RD, KP 5, OL 2.5
7:00:00 PM  Eastern Ill HF, KP 2, OL -1
7:00:00 PM  Citadel RD, KP 31, OL 24
7:00:00 PM  Prov HD, KP 8, OL 4.5
8:00:00 PM  Tulsa RF, KP 3, OL -2
8:00:00 PM  Duq RD, KP 14, OL 9
8:05:00 PM  IUPUI RD, KP 3, OL 0
8:05:00 PM  Oakland RD, KP 15, OL 8.5
8:30:00 PM  LA Monroe RD, KP 12, OL 7.5
9:00:00 PM  Pitt HF, KP 1, OL -2
9:00:00 PM  Mont ST HF, KP 3, OL -2.5
9:05:00 PM  N. AZ RD, KP 6, OL 3
10:00:00 PM  San Diego St. HF, KP -11, OL -15
10:00:00 PM  Fullerton RF, KP 1, OL -2.5
11:00:00 PM  Santa Clara HD, KP 14, OL 9.5

Russ,  I would look at Beavers post which says official plays. 

Terps suck ... Ouch tough way to down .. no points last 3 minutes of the game it seems like ?? Only put 1/2 unit on em .. Didn't like em that much ..

Maryland dumped ..........first...AWAY play that lost.even 60+% plays go down!!!!