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    All Forums | College Basketball

    Vegas vs KenPom Week 2

    «First Previous 123 ... 567
    Megatron27
    cous76
    beaverfan23
    Upside
    Sosana
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 14375
    Posts: 165
    «First Previous 123 ... 567
     
    Megatron27
    Megatron27
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 191
    Posted: Dec. 4, 2011 - 1:10 AM ET #151

    Alright I went through all the plays for the last two weeks and here is what I found:

    Home Teams: 13-9
    Away Teams: 10-3

    Favorites: 22-18
    Dogs:      15-9

    Line moved toward KP:  23-18
    Line moved away KP:  11-2

    It would be great to just say "lets put extra units on the teams that the line moves away from KenPom", but of course, we wont know which way the line moves until it is too late.  I will continue to keep track of this

    Great research their Beaver, 
    so from limited data we see that away teams and dogs kick ass. And if i read you right, line moved away from KP.  which is what? lets say Vegas has Virginia favored by 8 over VT, and kenpom has Virg at 4. Moving away kenpom would be the line rising from 8 to 9 ect...??
    Reply
    Alright I went through all the plays for the last two weeks and here is what I found:

    Home Teams: 13-9
    Away Teams: 10-3

    Favorites: 22-18
    Dogs:      15-9

    Line moved toward KP:  23-18
    Line moved away KP:  11-2

    It would be great to just say "lets put extra units on the teams that the line moves away from KenPom", but of course, we wont know which way the line moves until it is too late.  I will continue to keep track of this

    Great research their Beaver, 
    so from limited data we see that away teams and dogs kick ass. And if i read you right, line moved away from KP.  which is what? lets say Vegas has Virginia favored by 8 over VT, and kenpom has Virg at 4. Moving away kenpom would be the line rising from 8 to 9 ect...??
     
    Megatron27
    Megatron27
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 191
    Posted: Dec. 4, 2011 - 1:13 AM ET #152

    Also the system had a good day overall today.  Anyone want to do a qualitative analysis each day of the games we on the board? See if we can come up with extra info? 

    And again good leg work beaver. 
    Reply
    Also the system had a good day overall today.  Anyone want to do a qualitative analysis each day of the games we on the board? See if we can come up with extra info? 

    And again good leg work beaver. 
     
    Megatron27
    Megatron27
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 191
    Posted: Dec. 4, 2011 - 1:30 AM ET #153

    Early Looks for 2morro

    Nc state plus six (away dog)

    Maryland -1
    Marist -3
    Montana
    Reply
    Early Looks for 2morro

    Nc state plus six (away dog)

    Maryland -1
    Marist -3
    Montana
     
    cous76
    cous76
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2011
    Posts: 2
    Posted: Dec. 4, 2011 - 12:42 PM ET #154

    Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

    Early Looks for 2morro

    Nc state plus six (away dog)

    Maryland -1
    Marist -3
    Montana

    Shouldn't Or St be the play against Montana?
    FanMatch has Or St by 7, line opened Or st -9.5.  Or would this be a no-play?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

    Early Looks for 2morro

    Nc state plus six (away dog)

    Maryland -1
    Marist -3
    Montana

    Shouldn't Or St be the play against Montana?
    FanMatch has Or St by 7, line opened Or st -9.5.  Or would this be a no-play?
     
    beaverfan23
    beaverfan23
    Veteran
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    Joined: Nov, 2010
    Posts: 1545
    Posted: Dec. 4, 2011 - 12:58 PM ET #155

    Short on time.

    Sunday Plays:
    Rider -1
    ArkLR +1
    NCSt +8.5
    MD+1.5
    Penn St -1.5

    Reply
    Short on time.

    Sunday Plays:
    Rider -1
    ArkLR +1
    NCSt +8.5
    MD+1.5
    Penn St -1.5

     
    cous76
    cous76
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2011
    Posts: 2
    Posted: Dec. 4, 2011 - 2:46 PM ET #156

    Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

    Short on time.

    Sunday Plays:
    Rider -1
    ArkLR +1
    NCSt +8.5
    MD+1.5
    Penn St -1.5


    Hey bro, trying to understand here...How is Ark LR a play?  Opened +1.5 Fanmatch has them +1....I don't see where you see a 2 pt difference to make a call here.  
    Also Penn st open a pk fanmatch has them +1 again, not a 2pt difference.

    Could you tell me where you're getting your lines? Maybe that's the issue I'm running into....
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

    Short on time.

    Sunday Plays:
    Rider -1
    ArkLR +1
    NCSt +8.5
    MD+1.5
    Penn St -1.5


    Hey bro, trying to understand here...How is Ark LR a play?  Opened +1.5 Fanmatch has them +1....I don't see where you see a 2 pt difference to make a call here.  
    Also Penn st open a pk fanmatch has them +1 again, not a 2pt difference.

    Could you tell me where you're getting your lines? Maybe that's the issue I'm running into....
     
    Upside
    Upside
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2007
    Posts: 8003
    Posted: Dec. 4, 2011 - 6:05 PM ET #157

    Do we have to pay $19.95 for fanmatch to follow this thread as far as line movement or does someone have a link ?? Thanks for any help in regards to this ..
    Reply
    Do we have to pay $19.95 for fanmatch to follow this thread as far as line movement or does someone have a link ?? Thanks for any help in regards to this ..
     
    Megatron27
    Megatron27
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 191
    Posted: Dec. 4, 2011 - 6:58 PM ET #158

    Cous, we mostly use vegasinsider, and sometimes we do make mistakes with lines. When looking at this shit all day it is quite easy to do.
    Reply
    Cous, we mostly use vegasinsider, and sometimes we do make mistakes with lines. When looking at this shit all day it is quite easy to do.
     
    beaverfan23
    beaverfan23
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2010
    Posts: 1545
    Posted: Dec. 4, 2011 - 7:17 PM ET #159

    Quote Originally Posted by cous76:


    Hey bro, trying to understand here...How is Ark LR a play?  Opened +1.5 Fanmatch has them +1....I don't see where you see a 2 pt difference to make a call here.  
    Also Penn st open a pk fanmatch has them +1 again, not a 2pt difference.

    Could you tell me where you're getting your lines? Maybe that's the issue I'm running into....


    Click on "line moves" in the ncaab scoreboard section at covers.  Betonline was the first book to have a line and these plays are all correct according to those openers.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by cous76:


    Hey bro, trying to understand here...How is Ark LR a play?  Opened +1.5 Fanmatch has them +1....I don't see where you see a 2 pt difference to make a call here.  
    Also Penn st open a pk fanmatch has them +1 again, not a 2pt difference.

    Could you tell me where you're getting your lines? Maybe that's the issue I'm running into....


    Click on "line moves" in the ncaab scoreboard section at covers.  Betonline was the first book to have a line and these plays are all correct according to those openers.
     
    Sosana
    Sosana
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2009
    Posts: 3484
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2011 - 2:02 PM ET #160

    Anyone find out what today's play's are?? At work so I can't do research on em...
    Reply
    Anyone find out what today's play's are?? At work so I can't do research on em...
     
    catera123
    catera123
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2011
    Posts: 1233
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2011 - 2:04 PM ET #161

    Reply
     
    beaverfan23
    beaverfan23
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2010
    Posts: 1545
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2011 - 3:22 PM ET #162

    Home Teams: 19-14
    Away Teams: 15-6

    Favorites: 28-23
    Dogs:      20-12

    Line moved toward KP:  32-24
    Line moved away KP:  13-3
    Reply
    Home Teams: 19-14
    Away Teams: 15-6

    Favorites: 28-23
    Dogs:      20-12

    Line moved toward KP:  32-24
    Line moved away KP:  13-3
     
    beaverfan23
    beaverfan23
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2010
    Posts: 1545
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2011 - 3:28 PM ET #163

    Sorry guys I was real busy the last few days.  We went 9-5 saturday and 2-3 sunday.

    For the night: 2-3 (40%)

    For the week: 26-17 (60%)

    For the year: 48-35 (58%)


    In depth stats:

    Home Teams: 19-14 (58%)
    Away Teams: 15-6 (71%)

    Favorites: 28-23 (55%)
    Dogs:      20-12 (63%)

    Line moved toward KP:  32-24 (57%)
    Line moved away KP:  13-3 (81%)
    Reply
    Sorry guys I was real busy the last few days.  We went 9-5 saturday and 2-3 sunday.

    For the night: 2-3 (40%)

    For the week: 26-17 (60%)

    For the year: 48-35 (58%)


    In depth stats:

    Home Teams: 19-14 (58%)
    Away Teams: 15-6 (71%)

    Favorites: 28-23 (55%)
    Dogs:      20-12 (63%)

    Line moved toward KP:  32-24 (57%)
    Line moved away KP:  13-3 (81%)
     
    Sosana
    Sosana
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    Joined: Dec, 2009
    Posts: 3484
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2011 - 4:13 PM ET #164

    Bev's,

    You still working on the potiental plays for today? sorry to bug you dude...at work and can't login to kenpom.com
    Reply
    Bev's,

    You still working on the potiental plays for today? sorry to bug you dude...at work and can't login to kenpom.com
     
     
    Sosana
    Sosana
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2009
    Posts: 3484
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2011 - 4:16 PM ET #165

    Bev's another profitable week .............+9 units this week...
    Reply
    Bev's another profitable week .............+9 units this week...
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