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Vegas vs KenPom Week 2

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Posted: #126
3-0 for the night


Bev's,

Did you see my comment to Megatron? I think it could help us bro...check out microbro.com

For consensus we should use sportsinsights.com, or scoreandodds.com, vegasinsights.com or what ever....not all that gong ho on cover's consensus....

Lets cash these games today
 
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Posted: #127
I feel like covers consensus is a fairly accurate sample size.  Why are the other websites better?  Not trying to be a dick, just asking
 
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Posted: #128
Friday Recap:

For the night: 3-0 (100%)

For the week: 15-9 (63%)

For the year: 37-27 (58%)

Saturday plays coming soon
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by giant56:

Quote Originally Posted by Atherton:

For me that's like one week of betting.  I don't look at the total amount bet in aggregate.  I look at the bets i make each day and hope to make money at the end of the week. If i'm up I'm happy.  I bet regardless and do so to have fun.  I never expect to win or lose more than i care about.  So yeah....I have no problem betting $2K and being up $100

$2000/week=$104,000 (risk) to win and "be up" $5,200 at the end of the year.

.05%.  Call Dow Jones. He's looking for a hedge fund manager
that wants "to have fun."

You must be a trust fund kid.



  $5k is 5.00% of $100k, not 0.05%...  and a 5% ROI is not terrible as far as I know.

You must be a high school drop out.
 
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Posted: #130
Beaver, i agree with Sosana, for while we could say... If it is not broke dont fix it... it is probably better to say if, or how can we make this even better!! Cant hurt to keep looking for more angles to make sharper pics. 
 
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Posted: #131
Almost Official Saturday Plays:
(going to look at % at the websites sosana posted)

UNC+6
WF+2.5
ODU-2
GT+2.5
WM+14
CSU+12
Iowa-15.5
Conn -13
Fresno-10.5
Tulsa-8.5
Tenn +1
StBon +6
LoyMD-2.5
Wofford-8.5
MissSt-4
Pacific+4.5
NM-7.5
Hawaii-1.5
 
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Posted: #132
Official Friday Plays:

UNC+6.5
WF+2.5
ODU-2
GT+2.5
WM+14
CSU+12
Iowa-15.5
Conn -13
Fresno-10.5
Tulsa-8.5
Tenn +1
StBon +6
Wofford-8.5
Pacific+4.5
NM-7.5


Sosana, Im not sure if those websites are accurate (I dont know how they can be because the numbers vary so much from site to site), but I pulled LoyMD, MissSt, and Hawaii off the card because they had very high public % on all sites.  Interested to see how those 3 games turn out.
 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Beaver, i agree with Sosana, for while we could say... If it is not broke dont fix it... it is probably better to say if, or how can we make this even better!! Cant hurt to keep looking for more angles to make sharper pics. 


If I get time today I want to go through all the picks and seperate them into home/away, dog/fave, line movement in each direction.  That information might be helpful
 
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Posted: #134
[Quote: Originally Posted by beaverfan23] Official Friday Plays:

UNC+6.5
WF+2.5
ODU-2
GT+2.5
WM+14
CSU+12
Iowa-15.5
Conn -13
Fresno-10.5
Tulsa-8.5
Tenn +1
StBon +6
Wofford-8.5
Pacific+4.5
NM-7.5


Risking $1,500.  Find some losers and pick the winners.
This shit is genious.  I love this thread.
I'm making some beer cash today.  I can just feel it.
 
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Posted: #135
Beaver, i have acces to kenpom too. i have been following this idea of yours since last year. I will work it with you. And anyone else reading this should do the same. UNC hit, i liked that one.
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Beaver, i have acces to kenpom too. i have been following this idea of yours since last year. I will work it with you. And anyone else reading this should do the same. UNC hit, i liked that one.



 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

I feel like covers consensus is a fairly accurate sample size.  Why are the other websites better?  Not trying to be a dick, just asking



Covers consensus is based on people from this site, the other's track actual vegas casino's and offshore books.
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Beaver, i have acces to kenpom too. i have been following this idea of yours since last year. I will work it with you. And anyone else reading this should do the same. UNC hit, i liked that one.



Hey bro did you check out microbro.com? Software name is Winpicks...sorry for the confusion...

I say we stick with to his system and then use this software to help us validate big play's or double the unit plays



 
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Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Friday Plays:

UNC+6.5
WF+2.5
ODU-2
GT+2.5
WM+14
CSU+12
Iowa-15.5
Conn -13
Fresno-10.5
Tulsa-8.5
Tenn +1
StBon +6
Wofford-8.5
Pacific+4.5
NM-7.5


Sosana, Im not sure if those websites are accurate (I dont know how they can be because the numbers vary so much from site to site), but I pulled LoyMD, MissSt, and Hawaii off the card because they had very high public % on all sites.  Interested to see how those 3 games turn out.



Bev's,

Consensus FAQ

What is the Covers "All Players" Consensus?

The Covers "All Players" consensus shows the number of picks in the league cash contests made by all players.   If the percentage of picks exceeds 59%, the game is highlighted.

What is the Covers "Top 10%" Consensus?

The "Top 10%" consensus works the same way, but only picks from the top 10% of the players on the Leaderboard are included with the results.

What is the Covers "Team Experts" Consensus?

Each night Covers ranks the top contest players for all teams (season to date). The top 10 players for each team are considered "Team Experts".   The consensus shows the opinion of these "experts" when their team is playing.

What line is used when counting consensus picks?

Consensus picks are against all moving lines.  For instance, if the line moves from 3 to 4, the consensus page for all matchups will show the total number of picks for the visitor and home team at both line values.  The consensus page always displays the most recent line.

How often do the consensus numbers update?

The data on the various consensus pages are continuously updating throughout the day as picks are submitted by contest players.  Updates typically are made at about 5 minute intervals, but can be slower during peak traffic times on the site.

How do you calculate the "Top Cappers" for each sport?

The Top Cappers Leaderboard for each sport is the combined total units gained for the contest player throughout the full season (all contest results combined).

What is the value of your Public Money statistics?

Covers Public Money data is a unique way to evaluate the money spent on individual teams throughout the season by the betting public. Although our numbers come from Covers free League Contests, with over 50,000 contest players participating this past year, these numbers provide an accurate comparison of where the ‘real’ betting public is laying their cash. 

Link



 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by Sosana:




Hey bro did you check out microbro.com? Software name is Winpicks...sorry for the confusion...

I say we stick with to his system and then use this software to help us validate big play's or double the unit plays





I looked at the website.  It looks cool, but I am not going to buy the software.  I looked at the betting trends websites you posted, they all have different numbers which leads me to believe none of them are accurate.  There is no website ever that has accurate numbers, there are millions of bets placed with locals that will never be posted on a website.  There is no way to truly know the percentage of bets on each team...I will continue to look at the sites you posted from time to time, but I do not think they are accurate
 
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Posted: #141
Sosana,

No disrespect was meant by that post.  I appreciate you helping out! Lets get some winners today
 
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Posted: #142
UNC+6.5 W
WF+2.5 L
ODU-2 W
GT+2.5 L
WM+14 L
CSU+12 W
Iowa-15.5 W
Conn -13 PUSH
Fresno-10.5 up 23 in 2nd half
Tulsa-8.5 up 1 in 2nd half
Tenn +1 Just started...
StBon +6
Wofford-8.5
Pacific+4.5
NM-7.5

4-3-1 with 7 games left to go
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Sosana,

No disrespect was meant by that post.  I appreciate you helping out! Lets get some winners today


No problem bro, we are here to help each other win
 
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Posted: #144
Sosana, i did not check it out again but i will later 2nite. Thanks for the info.  
 
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Posted: #145
Gotta tell you boys ... Just read through this thread and this is the type of shit we need in here. People just trying to help ea other out. Good stuff, boys.
 
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by gaelswin:

Gotta tell you boys ... Just read through this thread and this is the type of shit we need in here. People just trying to help ea other out. Good stuff, boys.


4-3-1 so far today.
Agreed.
That's helping me out!!
Thanks!!
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by giant56:



4-3-1 so far today.
Agreed.
That's helping me out!!
Thanks!!




 
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Posted: #148
Alright I went through all the plays for the last two weeks and here is what I found:

Home Teams: 13-9
Away Teams: 10-3

Favorites: 22-18
Dogs:      15-9

Line moved toward KP:  23-18
Line moved away KP:  11-2

It would be great to just say "lets put extra units on the teams that the line moves away from KenPom", but of course, we wont know which way the line moves until it is too late.  I will continue to keep track of this.
 
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Posted: #149

great added info beav, i like that line moves, something to keep watchin

thx 4 the plays

 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Alright I went through all the plays for the last two weeks and here is what I found:

Home Teams: 13-9
Away Teams: 10-3

Favorites: 22-18
Dogs:      15-9

Line moved toward KP:  23-18
Line moved away KP:  11-2

It would be great to just say "lets put extra units on the teams that the line moves away from KenPom", but of course, we wont know which way the line moves until it is too late.  I will continue to keep track of this.


holy shit.

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