All Forums | College Basketball

Vegas vs KenPom Week 2

...
Participants:
Search
Views: 14375
Posts: 165
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 499
Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Thursday Recap:

For the night: 4-2 (67%)

For the week: 12-9 (57%)

For the year: 34-27 (56%) ???

Friday plays coming soon


Nice work tonight Beaver.  I'm bombed on beers and finally won $$ because of you.

Do it again.  Do it again.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 191
Posted: #77
I missed that one Beaver, 
And Beaver, dont even feed into defending urself on here. Anyone who is pointing out that it cant work.. they should fuck off.. we are merely trying to find ways that can work. If u have a better idea show us/it.  
Anyhow, Beaver i was thiking that we have to come up with another way to use this data. Instead of just going off the difference in the spread vs kenpom score. Now i dont know what that variable or qualative data would be. But i think we need something else to fine tune it. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1545
Posted: #78
What do you have in mind?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 191
Posted: #79
Fuck i dont know yet,  i am just throwing it out there as I think we need another tool to add value to this idea.  Well we know that kenpom doesnt factor into it's lines injuries or rivalry games but we know does.  I am just thinking out loud here but maybe looking into how a team is playing its last 10 games and comparing the teams a bit more with styles and player types.  Like i said i dont know yet but i was hoping to come up with something that gives us less games out of our criteria and maybe a higher overall percent. Anyone else reading have an idea. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 191
Posted: #80
Also, if we can figure it out, cause we dont have all the info which team has the best most complete player on the court. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 191
Posted: #81
lastly, i lost on this tonight but i think it was a great bet regardless. I bet South Florida in football. One would think the line for the game should have been West V minus 6 based upon record and stats but it was only west v minus 1 then too 2 despite all the public money on west v. The sharp money was on USF. And usf had their chance 2 win if not for a fumble on west v 26 yardline with 2  min left. West V went to win by a fg.  Anyhow, i went with the reverse line movement. I know you are familar with this too. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1545
Posted: #82
I dont know man, it seems to be working pretty well so far, including the first couple tracking weeks this system is 62-41 (over 60%).  I'm thinking lets not fix what isn't broken. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 16326
Posted: #83
TRY MONEY LINE PARLAYS BEST 3 HOME TEAMS WATCH THE CASH ROLL IN BROTHER LIKE SYRACUSE MONEY LINE AND POSSIBLE CARDS MONEYLINE   SIMPLIFY IT TO PICKING JUST A WINNER WATCH YOUR ACCURACY
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 16326
Posted: #84
THERES THE FILTER THE MISSING LINK HELL WITH THE SPREAD STRING A FEW OUT RIGHT WINNERS TOGETHER TO INCREASE ODDS BETTER PAY OUTS GIVE IT A TRY IVE BEEN ADJUSTING THIS SYSTEM SINCE LAST YEAR AND FOUND THIS HAS WORKED ADVANTAGE /HOME TEAM LINE MOVEMENT INCREASED FROM 3 TO 6 FROM VEGAS GO WITH VEGAS LIKE TOMORROW SYRACUSE -3 KP =6 VEGAS TAKE THE CUSE AT HOME MONEY LINE SURE WINNER
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 221
Posted: #85
beaver, u ever take notice of the line moves on your plays and the results of those moves? not sure but i notice that those favs win when the lines go down, i.e. boise from -7.5 to -5.5, cal poly -15 to -13, usc -6 to -4, zags -12 to -10 , app.st. -12 to -11, w.caro -1 to +1. lasalle -7 to -5. just something that i have following with you plays.  of course there were some that lost but most won on those moves.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1545
Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:

im on st pete and depaul cleve st  keep up the great wk id add a filter edge on home teams


Dude, you would've lost with that moneyline parlay thing tonight.  And your thoughts are so scattered and filled with bright colors and light bulbs.  Your hard to understand brotha


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1545
Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by da_scoops:

beaver, u ever take notice of the line moves on your plays and the results of those moves? not sure but i notice that those favs win when the lines go down, i.e. boise from -7.5 to -5.5, cal poly -15 to -13, usc -6 to -4, zags -12 to -10 , app.st. -12 to -11, w.caro -1 to +1. lasalle -7 to -5. just something that i have following with you plays.  of course there were some that lost but most won on those moves.


Thats very interesting, I haven't noticed....but that could definitely be something to keep an eye on.  Keep me posted if the trend continues
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 191
Posted: #88
I like what Da scoops had to offer, thats kinda what i am talking about Beaver. Looking at some other aspect of the data that gives us a more narrow yet accurate pick.  However, i dont think this Ken data will be truelly useful until we are in conference play.. this is still way to early in the season. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 1280
Posted: #89
Are you doing any o/u's?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 2988
Posted: #90
NOT HERE TO BASH BUT COVERS CONTEST PERCENTAGES ARE ALWAYS WAY OFF. USE SCORESANDODDS.COM TO GET YOUR "TRUE" 65% AND OVER PERCENTAGES
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1545
Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by Hawk_You:

NOT HERE TO BASH BUT COVERS CONTEST PERCENTAGES ARE ALWAYS WAY OFF. USE SCORESANDODDS.COM TO GET YOUR "TRUE" 65% AND OVER PERCENTAGES


Thanks for the tip hawk, I will check it out....but if you don't mind me asking, how do you know? 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1545
Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

Are you doing any o/u's?


I haven't done any Totals yet, but it might work just as well as the sides.  Not sure
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 53
Posted: #93

This thread is making me want to rip my eyes out of my head!

You NEVER lose money if you are playing basic bets laying normal juice and you win at a 55% clip.  Vegas only looks for 58% or higher for their sharps. 

Sure...if you have only mad 20 bets, lets say, at $110 each you're only up $110....BUT YOU'RE UP!!!

The longer you go at that percentage the more the money just keeps on coming.  Hell, i'll take 55% every day of the week!

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 53
Posted: #94
*made
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1545
Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by Atherton:

This thread is making me want to rip my eyes out of my head!

You NEVER lose money if you are playing basic bets laying normal juice and you win at a 55% clip.  Vegas only looks for 58% or higher for their sharps. 

Sure...if you have only mad 20 bets, lets say, at $110 each you're only up $110....BUT YOU'RE UP!!!

The longer you go at that percentage the more the money just keeps on coming.  Hell, i'll take 55% every day of the week!





Its hard to argue with dumb people
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1545
Posted: #96
Official Friday Plays:

Florida +6.5
Canisius +13.5
Nevada +4


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 499
Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by Atherton:

This thread is making me want to rip my eyes out of my head!

You NEVER lose money if you are playing basic bets laying normal juice and you win at a 55% clip.  Vegas only looks for 58% or higher for their sharps. 

Sure...if you have only mad 20 bets, lets say, at $110 each you're only up $110....BUT YOU'RE UP!!!

The longer you go at that percentage the more the money just keeps on coming.  Hell, i'll take 55% every day of the week!



20x$110=$2,200 

So you are willing to risk over 2 G's to win or "be up"  $110.

Hmm.  I must be dumb.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 499
Posted: #98
[Quote: Originally Posted by beaverfan23] Official Friday Plays:

Florida +6.5
Canisius +13.5
Nevada +4


Love the pics Beaver.

Lets Go!!!!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 221
Posted: #99

beaver

your dogs this week when the line went up i.e duke +5 to +8 lost

FIU +8 to +9.5 lost, ntex +19 to +23 won. the other dogs that didn't move won.  something to watch. GL

 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 191
Posted: #100
Canius starting pg and best player is not playing 2nite... that might be a good reason not to play them. 
All Forums | College Basketball
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Privacy Choices Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 Genius Sports. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.