The basis is simple. If there is a "large" difference between the
opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with
Vegas.
System rules:
If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5 points. 4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points. 8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points. 12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points. 16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
Two notes:
I
will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets
according to covers contests.
Starting on Feb 6, 2012 I will be wagering on first half plays. Statistical evidence has been found supporting the thought that the systems plays cover in the first half more than the entire game.
The basis is simple. If there is a "large" difference between the
opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with
Vegas.
System rules:
If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5 points. 4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points. 8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points. 12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points. 16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
Two notes:
I
will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets
according to covers contests.
Starting on Feb 6, 2012 I will be wagering on first half plays. Statistical evidence has been found supporting the thought that the systems plays cover in the first half more than the entire game.
I know this is probably the big gorilla in the room and all.......
But, Beaver do you have any comments or thoughts regarding your decision to change the "official plays" to 1H only?
After a 2nd straight bigger card day when 1H's finished poorer than your original full game plays theory (my quick calculations show 6-4 for full game plays and 3-6-1 on 1H plays) have you begun to second guess either the calculation accuracy of someone else's research or the realization that any system that projects close to 60% is doomed to revert closer to the mean over time.
I for one, am happy if I can find a trend anything close to 55% over a long period of time...let's hope I'm wrong in my cause for concern, but luckily for me, I can only play full game lines with my local and i have I've been fortunate to pick the right 2 or 3 winners and limit my losers by not playing every game that fits the criteria. Keep up the great efforts though, they are appreciated!
I know this is probably the big gorilla in the room and all.......
But, Beaver do you have any comments or thoughts regarding your decision to change the "official plays" to 1H only?
After a 2nd straight bigger card day when 1H's finished poorer than your original full game plays theory (my quick calculations show 6-4 for full game plays and 3-6-1 on 1H plays) have you begun to second guess either the calculation accuracy of someone else's research or the realization that any system that projects close to 60% is doomed to revert closer to the mean over time.
I for one, am happy if I can find a trend anything close to 55% over a long period of time...let's hope I'm wrong in my cause for concern, but luckily for me, I can only play full game lines with my local and i have I've been fortunate to pick the right 2 or 3 winners and limit my losers by not playing every game that fits the criteria. Keep up the great efforts though, they are appreciated!
Marketmaker...I assure you my research was as accurate as 100% can be...feel free to check the results yourself
Or are you just another one of those people that like to shoot their mouth off, but not actually back it up with anything...
The system was good for full games, but it did better for first halves...of course this doesn't mean that either will continue...but that is no reason to second guess anything...
I agree with you to the degree that it was hitting at a high rate for awhile and maybe it has cooled off...but please don't second guess my research, it took hours and hours to do, and I definitely made sure it was accurate before I posted it...
I would assume the second halves will continue to show a profit...no reason to let two longer cards make that much of a difference...if you look, there were weeks where the full games did better....just there were a lot more weeks where the first half did better,two losing days is not a reason to just throw up our hands and say oops guess we were wrong
Marketmaker...I assure you my research was as accurate as 100% can be...feel free to check the results yourself
Or are you just another one of those people that like to shoot their mouth off, but not actually back it up with anything...
The system was good for full games, but it did better for first halves...of course this doesn't mean that either will continue...but that is no reason to second guess anything...
I agree with you to the degree that it was hitting at a high rate for awhile and maybe it has cooled off...but please don't second guess my research, it took hours and hours to do, and I definitely made sure it was accurate before I posted it...
I would assume the second halves will continue to show a profit...no reason to let two longer cards make that much of a difference...if you look, there were weeks where the full games did better....just there were a lot more weeks where the first half did better,two losing days is not a reason to just throw up our hands and say oops guess we were wrong
In the previous post the last paragraph is referring to first halves not second halves...
Also I was thinking the system might be more of a first half of the season system too...but then I remembered that beaver said he used the system at the end of last year and had success...
Don't know...does seem like it has been regressing lately, but like I said in an earlier week...if you have a good system and you try to time it and only play it at certain times...you run the risk of missing out on some of the best days...
In the previous post the last paragraph is referring to first halves not second halves...
Also I was thinking the system might be more of a first half of the season system too...but then I remembered that beaver said he used the system at the end of last year and had success...
Don't know...does seem like it has been regressing lately, but like I said in an earlier week...if you have a good system and you try to time it and only play it at certain times...you run the risk of missing out on some of the best days...
PB...I agree with you 100%, and I commend your efforts and hours of back testing. I'm certainly not one to shoot my mouth off...I rarely post, but when I do, I just like to point out different macro viewpoints when I feel too much overthinking is involved and micro viewpoints when I see too much short term analysis justifying a trend.
I started noticing the difference in vegas lines compared to kenpom's predictions last year, then participated in discussions with both Beaver and Poolman at that time...which eventually led to Beaver taking it to the level of tracking the "system" this year.
Guess I just started to get the short team feeling of "if it aint broke, don't fix it" mentality.
I never meant to question your intelligence or research efforts PB, just wanted to start the discussion/debate with Beaver to see what his opinion was.
PB...I agree with you 100%, and I commend your efforts and hours of back testing. I'm certainly not one to shoot my mouth off...I rarely post, but when I do, I just like to point out different macro viewpoints when I feel too much overthinking is involved and micro viewpoints when I see too much short term analysis justifying a trend.
I started noticing the difference in vegas lines compared to kenpom's predictions last year, then participated in discussions with both Beaver and Poolman at that time...which eventually led to Beaver taking it to the level of tracking the "system" this year.
Guess I just started to get the short team feeling of "if it aint broke, don't fix it" mentality.
I never meant to question your intelligence or research efforts PB, just wanted to start the discussion/debate with Beaver to see what his opinion was.
No problem...I can be kind of a hot-head sometimes...
Me too...I'm just looking for answers...I guess the only true answer is that we need more seasons to judge it against, but I think this thinking can be used to develop systems in other sports also...
Actually I'd like to see you post more here MM and again I'm sorry for jumping all over your last post...
No problem...I can be kind of a hot-head sometimes...
Me too...I'm just looking for answers...I guess the only true answer is that we need more seasons to judge it against, but I think this thinking can be used to develop systems in other sports also...
Actually I'd like to see you post more here MM and again I'm sorry for jumping all over your last post...
It seems that the dogs are good for 1st halfs, fav's are good for full game. But as I look back of the past couple of days that doesnt hold much water either. Not everyday is going to winner winner, the system has been tried, hitting good over the year.
It seems that the dogs are good for 1st halfs, fav's are good for full game. But as I look back of the past couple of days that doesnt hold much water either. Not everyday is going to winner winner, the system has been tried, hitting good over the year.
Clemson -1.5 (HFT) 58.0 W JM +4.5 (HDT) 31.3 W Hofstra -4 (HFT) 38.0 L TCU +8.5 (HDT) 38.7 W S.Ill +6.5 (HDA) 33.1 L Wis-Mil +1 (HFT) 46.7 W Wis-GB -5 (HFT) 37.6 W OK +3 (HDT) 57.3 L Minn +8 (HDT) 55.0 L Siena +4 (HDT) 33.8 W
6-4
Official Tuesday Plays:
Siena +2 1H (HDT) 33.8 W Clemson -1 1H (HFT) 58.0 L JM +2.5 1H (HDT) 31.3 L Hofstra -2 1H (HFT) 38.0 L TCU +5 1H (HDT) 38.7 PUSH Wis-Mil PK 1H (HFT) 46.7 W Wis-GB -2.5 1H (HFT) 37.6 L OK +1.5 1H (HDT) 57.3 W S.Ill +3.5 1H (HDA) 33.1 L Minn +4.5 1H (HDT) 55.0 L
Clemson -1.5 (HFT) 58.0 W JM +4.5 (HDT) 31.3 W Hofstra -4 (HFT) 38.0 L TCU +8.5 (HDT) 38.7 W S.Ill +6.5 (HDA) 33.1 L Wis-Mil +1 (HFT) 46.7 W Wis-GB -5 (HFT) 37.6 W OK +3 (HDT) 57.3 L Minn +8 (HDT) 55.0 L Siena +4 (HDT) 33.8 W
6-4
Official Tuesday Plays:
Siena +2 1H (HDT) 33.8 W Clemson -1 1H (HFT) 58.0 L JM +2.5 1H (HDT) 31.3 L Hofstra -2 1H (HFT) 38.0 L TCU +5 1H (HDT) 38.7 PUSH Wis-Mil PK 1H (HFT) 46.7 W Wis-GB -2.5 1H (HFT) 37.6 L OK +1.5 1H (HDT) 57.3 W S.Ill +3.5 1H (HDA) 33.1 L Minn +4.5 1H (HDT) 55.0 L
In the previous post the last paragraph is referring to first halves not second halves...
Also I was thinking the system might be more of a first half of the season system too...but then I remembered that beaver said he used the system at the end of last year and had success...
Don't know...does seem like it has been regressing lately, but like I said in an earlier week...if you have a good system and you try to time it and only play it at certain times...you run the risk of missing out on some of the best days...
I just tried to find my threads from last year at the end of the season, but they aren't in my recent posts anymore. I was hoping to find a week by week record to see if there was a point that the system started to drop off
In the previous post the last paragraph is referring to first halves not second halves...
Also I was thinking the system might be more of a first half of the season system too...but then I remembered that beaver said he used the system at the end of last year and had success...
Don't know...does seem like it has been regressing lately, but like I said in an earlier week...if you have a good system and you try to time it and only play it at certain times...you run the risk of missing out on some of the best days...
I just tried to find my threads from last year at the end of the season, but they aren't in my recent posts anymore. I was hoping to find a week by week record to see if there was a point that the system started to drop off
I started on February 21st last season and went until conference tournaments started.
The system started out hot but ended up at 17-17 after 19 days.
The strangest thing is that there were only 34 plays in 19 days. I wonder if I was finding the plays differently last season???
Maybe not using betonline for the opener. Anyways, it does look like the last few weeks of the season were not profitable. I will continue to track until the end of the regular season.
Its important to keep in mind that this is the first full season I have tracked this system and with the help of alof of guys out there I have found alot of trends that will help us in the future. Its a learning process!
I started on February 21st last season and went until conference tournaments started.
The system started out hot but ended up at 17-17 after 19 days.
The strangest thing is that there were only 34 plays in 19 days. I wonder if I was finding the plays differently last season???
Maybe not using betonline for the opener. Anyways, it does look like the last few weeks of the season were not profitable. I will continue to track until the end of the regular season.
Its important to keep in mind that this is the first full season I have tracked this system and with the help of alof of guys out there I have found alot of trends that will help us in the future. Its a learning process!
I started on February 21st last season and went until conference tournaments started.
The system started out hot but ended up at 17-17 after 19 days.
The strangest thing is that there were only 34 plays in 19 days. I wonder if I was finding the plays differently last season???
Maybe not using betonline for the opener. Anyways, it does look like the last few weeks of the season were not profitable. I will continue to track until the end of the regular season.
Its important to keep in mind that this is the first full season I have tracked this system and with the help of alof of guys out there I have found alot of trends that will help us in the future. Its a learning process!
I started on February 21st last season and went until conference tournaments started.
The system started out hot but ended up at 17-17 after 19 days.
The strangest thing is that there were only 34 plays in 19 days. I wonder if I was finding the plays differently last season???
Maybe not using betonline for the opener. Anyways, it does look like the last few weeks of the season were not profitable. I will continue to track until the end of the regular season.
Its important to keep in mind that this is the first full season I have tracked this system and with the help of alof of guys out there I have found alot of trends that will help us in the future. Its a learning process!
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