I think the cooling off of beaver's system is directly related to the success of the Kine Professor's system...the teams that have nothing to play for, at the end of the season are exactly the type of teams that seem to be dragging beaver's system down...
My advice...start next season with beaver's system, use that through January, then towards the middle of the conference schedules...taper off of beaver's sytem and start employing the Kine Professor's system to the end of the year...should make for a prosperous full season of wagering...
GL All...PB.
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I think the cooling off of beaver's system is directly related to the success of the Kine Professor's system...the teams that have nothing to play for, at the end of the season are exactly the type of teams that seem to be dragging beaver's system down...
My advice...start next season with beaver's system, use that through January, then towards the middle of the conference schedules...taper off of beaver's sytem and start employing the Kine Professor's system to the end of the year...should make for a prosperous full season of wagering...
I agree 100% with PB's above comment. I'll finish the season in this thread. Still havent had time to sit down and figure out the YTD but it hasn't been good. Tuesday Plays coming soon
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I agree 100% with PB's above comment. I'll finish the season in this thread. Still havent had time to sit down and figure out the YTD but it hasn't been good. Tuesday Plays coming soon
Thanks for all the hard work beaver. .You were on a roll. The numbers caught up and the early weeks were the best...Looking forward to your 1st week plays next season
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Thanks for all the hard work beaver. .You were on a roll. The numbers caught up and the early weeks were the best...Looking forward to your 1st week plays next season
I know there are going to be detractors for what I am about to say but frankly it needs to be said.
The system is rolling along then it gets changed to first half selections after running this through for a few months. Then less than a month later when the system starts to slide, sheer panic has set in and now interest has been lost.
Is it fear of having a failing system and it's best to quit when in the plus. Is it that you haven't kept accurate stats in a bigger breakdown of things to find what IS working compared to what isn't?
There is a lot of things that are working and I've given breakdowns several times of what is and what should be looked for and played and what not to play and to fade it.
My internal breakdown of this is producing 70% winners +
It takes to break things down but you need to do it daily and keep accurate tracking. I've done this from week 7 until the end of week 13.
So before someone says you don't have a large sampling, I'll tell you BS. I have a sampling of more than 50% of the season and the entire conference play which is the way to track things rather than random bracket buster matchups and early season matchups as conference play is what drives the season.
If you are in fear of the system to further decay, why not ride Ken Pom then. Afterall why give up your system if you're willing to tweak it 10-11 weeks in.
Will there is a way, it can be found, it's a matter of trying to get there.
jr
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I know there are going to be detractors for what I am about to say but frankly it needs to be said.
The system is rolling along then it gets changed to first half selections after running this through for a few months. Then less than a month later when the system starts to slide, sheer panic has set in and now interest has been lost.
Is it fear of having a failing system and it's best to quit when in the plus. Is it that you haven't kept accurate stats in a bigger breakdown of things to find what IS working compared to what isn't?
There is a lot of things that are working and I've given breakdowns several times of what is and what should be looked for and played and what not to play and to fade it.
My internal breakdown of this is producing 70% winners +
It takes to break things down but you need to do it daily and keep accurate tracking. I've done this from week 7 until the end of week 13.
So before someone says you don't have a large sampling, I'll tell you BS. I have a sampling of more than 50% of the season and the entire conference play which is the way to track things rather than random bracket buster matchups and early season matchups as conference play is what drives the season.
If you are in fear of the system to further decay, why not ride Ken Pom then. Afterall why give up your system if you're willing to tweak it 10-11 weeks in.
Will there is a way, it can be found, it's a matter of trying to get there.
I can take any system that is hitting 57%...limit certain plays, tweak it here and there and make it 70%...but then once you have a larger sample it reverts back...
No one gave up on the system...maybe we just had the smarts enough to realize it wasn't always going to hit...
Nothing wrong with having a system that can be used at certain points in the season and not at other parts...
No one is in fear of anything...if you have input you think would help at this point, then point it out...otherwise it's pointless to even post in this thread...sounds to me like you just got your feelings hurt and now you are crying like a little girl.
Good Luck...PB.
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jrivers...
I can take any system that is hitting 57%...limit certain plays, tweak it here and there and make it 70%...but then once you have a larger sample it reverts back...
No one gave up on the system...maybe we just had the smarts enough to realize it wasn't always going to hit...
Nothing wrong with having a system that can be used at certain points in the season and not at other parts...
No one is in fear of anything...if you have input you think would help at this point, then point it out...otherwise it's pointless to even post in this thread...sounds to me like you just got your feelings hurt and now you are crying like a little girl.
I can take any system that is hitting 57%...limit certain plays, tweak it here and there and make it 70%...but then once you have a larger sample it reverts back...
No one gave up on the system...maybe we just had the smarts enough to realize it wasn't always going to hit...
Nothing wrong with having a system that can be used at certain points in the season and not at other parts...
No one is in fear of anything...if you have input you think would help at this point, then point it out...otherwise it's pointless to even post in this thread...sounds to me like you just got your feelings hurt and now you are crying like a little girl.
Good Luck...PB.
I was going to say the exact same thing...
JR,
I really do appreciate the insight and in depth stats that you have provided, but that last post was, for lack of a better word...dumb.
I have stated many times that I would make changes in the system if statistical evidence was found to show the change made sense....1st halfs have been better.
I have also previously stated that this system started to tail off around this time last season. Logically, it makes sense. Kenpom has seen every team play at least 25 games...thus making his ratings more accurate than ever. You said that we should fade this system and side with KP, but that wouldn't make sense either because the system has been hitting right around 48% over the last week or so...no profit on either side.
I am posting plays for the sole purpose of tracking it for next season. I have posted numerous warnings to followers saying that it has not been doing well the last 2 weeks
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Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
jrivers...
I can take any system that is hitting 57%...limit certain plays, tweak it here and there and make it 70%...but then once you have a larger sample it reverts back...
No one gave up on the system...maybe we just had the smarts enough to realize it wasn't always going to hit...
Nothing wrong with having a system that can be used at certain points in the season and not at other parts...
No one is in fear of anything...if you have input you think would help at this point, then point it out...otherwise it's pointless to even post in this thread...sounds to me like you just got your feelings hurt and now you are crying like a little girl.
Good Luck...PB.
I was going to say the exact same thing...
JR,
I really do appreciate the insight and in depth stats that you have provided, but that last post was, for lack of a better word...dumb.
I have stated many times that I would make changes in the system if statistical evidence was found to show the change made sense....1st halfs have been better.
I have also previously stated that this system started to tail off around this time last season. Logically, it makes sense. Kenpom has seen every team play at least 25 games...thus making his ratings more accurate than ever. You said that we should fade this system and side with KP, but that wouldn't make sense either because the system has been hitting right around 48% over the last week or so...no profit on either side.
I am posting plays for the sole purpose of tracking it for next season. I have posted numerous warnings to followers saying that it has not been doing well the last 2 weeks
...You said that we should fade this system and side with KP, but that wouldn't make sense either because the system has been hitting right around 48% over the last week or so...no profit on either side.
I am posting plays for the sole purpose of tracking it for next season. I have posted numerous warnings to followers saying that it has not been doing well the last 2 weeks
And just like that the system when 7-0 on full games Tues. night, if I calculated correctly.
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Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:
...You said that we should fade this system and side with KP, but that wouldn't make sense either because the system has been hitting right around 48% over the last week or so...no profit on either side.
I am posting plays for the sole purpose of tracking it for next season. I have posted numerous warnings to followers saying that it has not been doing well the last 2 weeks
And just like that the system when 7-0 on full games Tues. night, if I calculated correctly.
Beaver, you got a good system and the best way to play this system is, start when the season begins, hopefully it will run up some units again like it did this year. When you win 20-25 units quit until the following year. What happens with any system or any handicapper, the win rate starts to drop and go towards the middle. Thats why if you can win 20 units in every sport, and quit when you get to that goal or maybe even only 15 units, you will be a winning gambling every year. I have seen so many cappers jump out to an impressive records early on, only to keep playing all season long until they give back most or all of their profits. All of us gamblers just dont know when to quit. Thing is if were betting these games for profit, then you need to set goals, if your betting the games for just action, then bet the whole season. Good luck and i will be looking to jump on that one set of plays next season, that ran up a very impressive record.
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Beaver, you got a good system and the best way to play this system is, start when the season begins, hopefully it will run up some units again like it did this year. When you win 20-25 units quit until the following year. What happens with any system or any handicapper, the win rate starts to drop and go towards the middle. Thats why if you can win 20 units in every sport, and quit when you get to that goal or maybe even only 15 units, you will be a winning gambling every year. I have seen so many cappers jump out to an impressive records early on, only to keep playing all season long until they give back most or all of their profits. All of us gamblers just dont know when to quit. Thing is if were betting these games for profit, then you need to set goals, if your betting the games for just action, then bet the whole season. Good luck and i will be looking to jump on that one set of plays next season, that ran up a very impressive record.
Good Points cd...take webba in NCAAB contest for instance...I think he jumped out to with a 50,000 point December, got as high as 60,000...had at least a 25,000 point lead on everyone...now he's dropped to 2nd or 3rd...
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Good Points cd...take webba in NCAAB contest for instance...I think he jumped out to with a 50,000 point December, got as high as 60,000...had at least a 25,000 point lead on everyone...now he's dropped to 2nd or 3rd...
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the system when 7-0 on full games Tues. night, if I calculated correctly.
N NER WASH WINNER
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