Understanding Pick Management

I see so many posts with players selecting 2 teams- ever notice the better cappers are picking 3 games?

Its because they know the odds:

if you pick 1 game, the odds of you winning are 50%- you win 100 or lose 110-Simple its 50%

if you pick 2 games, you have a 25% chance of winning. You must go 2-0 or you lose. ( unless you bet different amounts ) but the odds of winning are still 25%

if you pick 3 games, your odds of winning are back up to 50% ( you go 3-0, 2-1 1-2 o-3 Simplified ) 50% chance of having a winning night-

No one should ever be picking an even number of game ( 2, 4, 6 ,8) unless they want to gauranteed a losing night

how about one game?

@TJZags598

 It isn't about a winning day though

It is about winning

You should be picking the games that you like

If you want multiple picks than you vary wagers based on how much you like them

But is it better to go 1-1 or force a third game and go 1-2?

Your logic is flawed

@smellybunty

Maybe your logic is flawed?

The odds are in your favor to pick an odd number of games. Math proves my logic- what proves yours?

Pick 2 games- you have a 25% chance to win- Math proves it

Pick 3 games- you have a 50% chance to win-math proves it.

NOw, evyone on this boards will say they can easily go 2-0, but you are going against the odds, and giving away any advantage-

I don’t buy this at all. You will win over the long haul if you are a good capper and lose if not. One day I have 1 game and the next maybe 2-3 if at the end of the week you had 12 plays and won 7-8 of them it doesn’t matter how many you play on a given day. No offense just my .02 cents.

@smellybunty @TJZags598

 picking 2 games has 3 outcomes (2-0, 1-1, 0-2). So chances of having a "winning" record is 33%

picking 3 games has 4 outcomes (3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3). So chances of having a "winning" record is 50%

BUT you run the risk with a higher chance of losing. More bets = more risks.

What if you go 2-0 ? Or you have two plus ev plays …

You can certainly go 2-0, but you are giving away an edge- the odds are against you. If you have 2 no vig games on the board on a night, its rare.

Keep in mind the BEST professional sports bettors are happy with 55%. Amateurs dont hit 50%

This logic is flawed. You have to keep in mind that the losing possibilities for a 3 game slate (1 - 2 or 0 - 3) are harder on your bankroll and overtime you are exposing yourself to more juice by playing more games. 

Hypothetically let’s say you bet $110 to win $100 for every bet. Here is the math:

2 play scenario:

0.33(200) + 0.33(-10) + .33(-220)

= -9.9

3 play scenario

0.25(300) + 0.25(90) + 0.25(-120) + 0.25(-330)

= -15

Your expected return will continue to fall the more games you play over time due to the juice. It’s actually more profitable to play less games over time.

YOur math is way off:

Here is the Math

3 Play Scenario:

3-0 12.5% x300= +37.5

2-1 37.5%  x100= (90x 37.5) +33.75

1-2 37.5% x 100 = ( -110 x .375)-45

0-3 x 12.5% x 100 =-41.75

2-0 .25x 200=+50

1-1 50% x -10 = -5

0-2 .25 = -55

Again, you have a 50% chance of winning by picking 3 team, and a 25% chance of winning by picking 2 teams Higher exposure, but higher reward too

-41.25 when 1-2

Math has nothing to do with it

If you have 2 picks you like a lot and everything else sucks you are risking a losing day picking a random game

@smellybunty

 Yes, you are giving away a major advantage. by picking the 3rd game, it gives you a major advantage , even if you flip a coin on it.

maybe you are a professional bettor, and do well. but the MAJORITY of bettors here are not. Everyone i talk to says parlays are hard to hit

But “days” don’t even really apply here. If you always have a 50% chance to win a bet and every bet has 10% juice, you can expect a -$5 return

0.5(100) + 0.5(-110) = -5

Therefore, in this context, you’d need to hit at least 52.5% of bets to break even or better. The more bets you place, the larger chance you have of bringing your win rate to 50%. 

@TJZags598

 Thanks for correcting me on that math portion, was not thinking it through properly lol

That wasnt my point You are changing the narrative-

I said you should never pick 2,4,6,8 games as it gives you a major disadvantage-

If i pick 3 games a night for 7 days, at the end of the week, i have a 50% chance of being ahead.

If you pick 2 games a night at the end of the week you have a 25% chance of being ahead.

The math is plain as day

Thats ok....i knew what you were getting at, yuo seem sharp-

I am trying to help people who are not good handicappers to gain a bit if an edge.....not trying to argue..

Not sure if following your math works. From my own experience, if I bet 3 games straight up I'll lose 2 of them. If I bet on 3 / 2 team parlays using 6 teams and spreads I'll hit 2 out of 3. Amazing how many times I've done it. 

I can promise you any true professional is considering only finding one winner, maybe two, but even that rarely. They aren't betting multiple games a day, odd, even, or otherwise. 

And just because people post in here about their "bets," don't believe everything you read, come on now, some of you can't be that naive.

Pointless thread 

@Degenbeter

Agreed!   Sometimes you don’t have an odd set…Sometimes it’s 2 or 0…

Says the biggest idiot on covers

You don't make any sense at all.  Sure there are 4 outcomes with 3 games but that does not factor in the number of times you will go 1-2 or 0-3 over the long haul.  There is no guarantee that just because you bet 3 games, you will win 3-0 or 2-1 over 50% of the time.  You could still be a bad picker and lose 0-3 five times in a row and you'd be 0-15.  Then you'd have to go 3-0 5 times just to break even.  Again you are not talking about the odds of winning your bets, just the 4 outcomes of making 3 picks.  

Here is an example.  If you make one bet you can either go 0-1 or 1-0.  But you could lose that pick 5 out of 6 times so you'd be in the hole 1-5.  You aren't considering the percentages that you will win at, only the 4 possible outcomes of 1-3 team plays.   You are clearly very new to gambling and literally are completely wrong in your theory.

@Frank the Bank

 exactly