Posted:
#1
Great day yesterday going 6-1 and the system going 2-0 on the day. System now stands at 36-10 since Feb 13th and it appears at the moment that Senior Nights and opening rounds of mid-major tourneys are not negatively influencing it at all.
I need to say a few things here, if you noticed many teams that covered yesterday you will find that many of the games had numerous factors that lined up with the system (maybe not all of them, but many of them). Even though we are about to be completely done with the system this season, you would be very well served to continue looking at the games giving importance to the factors that the system values as well. For instance, even though it was a neutral site game, it is really hard to justify backing Denver -10 last night against ANY opponent. This is a play against Denver and not for FIU. In my last few threads there has always been atleast one or two posters who don't like the system plays and says something to the effect of, "I wouldn't back a crap team like Dartmouth, or Toledo gets rolled, or can't support UC Davis in these situations." The point is that these people are looking at the game the wrong way, its about what the home team DOESN'T do, not about how bad they PERCEIVE their opponent to be.
That being said, we have a unique matchup and situation today. First, we just played against Northern Illinois against Toledo in a game that Toledo was +11.5 and almost won straight up.
And just last Saturday, Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan played at Eastern Michigan. The line in that game was Eastern Michigan -10. The game was tied at halftime and was without 2-6 points in Eastern Michigan's favor the entire second half. The game was a very easy cover for the system.
Now, just a week later, the teams met again, this time the spread is Eastern Michigan -8.5, so we still get some nice value, but not as nice as last week.
We have never had a situation before were a game has qualified for the system twice in an 8-day span and this time it is with higher stakes (so the letdown and nothing to play for angles are not in effect).
Do what you like with this game. I have already played Northern Illinois +8.5 as it would be pretty silly to not bet a game that fits a 36-10 system over the last three weeks. I could see Northern winning this game straight up or getting romped or anything in between.
This might be the last system game of the year but remember to still use the principles when selecting which games to study and bet. You don't have to force any plays today as we are going to have a ton of awesome games to bet over the next few weeks. Now that this is posted, I am going to start studying the other games and I will posts leans and plays in this thread today. Good luck with whatever you decide.
I need to say a few things here, if you noticed many teams that covered yesterday you will find that many of the games had numerous factors that lined up with the system (maybe not all of them, but many of them). Even though we are about to be completely done with the system this season, you would be very well served to continue looking at the games giving importance to the factors that the system values as well. For instance, even though it was a neutral site game, it is really hard to justify backing Denver -10 last night against ANY opponent. This is a play against Denver and not for FIU. In my last few threads there has always been atleast one or two posters who don't like the system plays and says something to the effect of, "I wouldn't back a crap team like Dartmouth, or Toledo gets rolled, or can't support UC Davis in these situations." The point is that these people are looking at the game the wrong way, its about what the home team DOESN'T do, not about how bad they PERCEIVE their opponent to be.
That being said, we have a unique matchup and situation today. First, we just played against Northern Illinois against Toledo in a game that Toledo was +11.5 and almost won straight up.
And just last Saturday, Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan played at Eastern Michigan. The line in that game was Eastern Michigan -10. The game was tied at halftime and was without 2-6 points in Eastern Michigan's favor the entire second half. The game was a very easy cover for the system.
Now, just a week later, the teams met again, this time the spread is Eastern Michigan -8.5, so we still get some nice value, but not as nice as last week.
We have never had a situation before were a game has qualified for the system twice in an 8-day span and this time it is with higher stakes (so the letdown and nothing to play for angles are not in effect).
Do what you like with this game. I have already played Northern Illinois +8.5 as it would be pretty silly to not bet a game that fits a 36-10 system over the last three weeks. I could see Northern winning this game straight up or getting romped or anything in between.
This might be the last system game of the year but remember to still use the principles when selecting which games to study and bet. You don't have to force any plays today as we are going to have a ton of awesome games to bet over the next few weeks. Now that this is posted, I am going to start studying the other games and I will posts leans and plays in this thread today. Good luck with whatever you decide.
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