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Ncaab ATS Streak Breakers for 2013/2014

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stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 12:08 PM ET #1301

Swimma

We play Xavier to not cover as the record states the odds makers have control of 8-0 streak teams and their record of 3 no covers and just 1 cover to 9-0 this season states they have a 75% chance to be correct and if by some way XAVIER SHOULD cover you double your wager to get your $$$$ back their next start and some as NO TEAM HAS ECLIPSED 9-0 this SEASON

Like wise we do the opposite with 0-7 Marquette today as 0-7 record reflects a cover at 7-2 of all teams this season that have reached 0-7 and that reflects a 78% win record

gabalja

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 477

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 12:12 PM ET #1302

So it's DePaul+6 v Xavier. And maquette+3.5 v g town?

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 12:25 PM ET #1303

jameselewisjr

your right on Marquette,,but where do you find i like N carolina

As i am looking for 5-0 win streaks to continue to cover their spread so that play is Virginia and although our 5-0 lost yesterday the record for 5-0 streak teams to cover is still pretty strong at 22-9 to cover 71%

The system is built that all streaks must stop but over the last 4 years and (back up is back in thread) odds makers have had problems placing proper point spreads on 5-0 win streak teams to stop their cover

So we play Virginia to cover

I will be wagering 5 units on both Marquette and Virginia to cover tonight as the streak system has me well up for season, but plz play at your wager levels as we have a lot of plays upcoming and the BEST is yet to come

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 12:47 PM ET #1304

we do have a few low level streak plays

(198) games @ 3-0 streaks ( Rec to not cover 118-80)= 60%

St Peters

Boston Univ

both should not cover, and 60% is very good they don't

4-0 Nova

(75 games @ 4-0 streaks )Rec to not cover (40-35) 53% low level wager play as we like a min of 60% to play

Nova has already eclipsed one 8-0 win streak this season that ended on 12/28 and is now on another at 4-0

Passing this game unless some one can talk me into it or poss a play for just 1 unit

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 1:46 PM ET #1305

did not post this properly

Like wise we do the opposite with 0-7 Marquette today as 0-7 record reflects a cover at 7-2 of all teams this season that have reached 0-7 and that reflects a 78% win record

should said

Like wise we do the SAME with 0-7 Marquette today as 0-7 record reflects a cover at 7-2 of all teams this season that have reached 0-7 and that reflects a 78% win record

gabalja

you got it

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 1:58 PM ET #1306

went back and retrieved the 5-0 win streak records of past and current

I live by this post and what it tells me for ncaab

Thread #32 Page 795 posted on 1/3/14

5-0 streak records for last 3 years

so lets put these 5-0 streak records together for last 3 years

5-0 streaks to continue against any point spread placed by odds makers

2010/2011 52% to go to 6-0 seasons end (28-25)

2011/ 2012 59% to go to 6-0 seasons end (27-19)

2012/2013 62 % to go to 6-0 seasons end (34-21)

2013/2014 80 % to go to 6-0 to date (12-3) 1/3/14

Currently 22-9 as of 1/19/14

although 10-6 recently as #'s reflect from 1/3/14

Odds makers have done a better job of late 4-1 on 1/18,,0-1 1/19

4-2 last 2 days, now its up to Virginia

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 2:16 PM ET #1307

been looking for future plays at 5-0 win streaks and tomorrow we have one team 5-0 Southern Methodist plays Rutgers on 1/21 and if casino has tomorrows plays avail t nite i will parlay Virginia,Marquette and Smu together for a 3 teamer along with my straight wagers for additional action

Smu and Rutgers both have played common opponents this season

Central Fla

Cinn

Louisville

and both were visitors at

Cinn and Rutgers lost by -20

and Smu lost by -8

so maybe this gives SMU a positive +12 edge to cover this game

the other two match ups were almost identical for both and outcomes showing balance between both

BigTimeSwimma

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2014

Posts: 2395

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 2:48 PM ET #1308

I'm taking a chance and taking DePaul. It has upset all over it as public loves Xavier too. Thanks for the added confidence Steveo!!

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 3:11 PM ET #1309

Swimma,, I'm cutting back my wager on DePaul to just 1 unit as in reviewing common opponents it does not look good for Depaul to cover this match up so i'll play them for 1 unit and hope the record stands on its own merit and at least if i'm wrong i wont get hurt that much

Both played Creighton and DePaul lost by 19 at home and Xavier lost by 6 on Road so that does worry me some

sebastianstis

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 219

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 3:40 PM ET #1310

Philmore has an ankle injury but is expected to play Monday against Depaul, looks like xav will win this one ...i'llplay 1st and if need 2nd half xav....they should cover

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 3:51 PM ET #1311

4 teams have reached this 8-0 streak level and only one has been able to cover of the 4 so we will see

Ausdaboss

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 213

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 4:11 PM ET #1312

Good luck to you Stevo! I'm tailing ya!

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 4:17 PM ET #1313

Plays today

DePaul going against 8-0 Xavier at 25% to cover per 8-0 record to not cover 3-1

(1 unit Play)

5-0 Virginia 71 % record to cover 22-9

5 unit play

0-7 Marquette to cover per record at 78% to cover 7-2

5 unit Play

going against 3-0 win streaks to cover at record of 118-80 to not cover and playing Opposition at 60%

Marist

loy Maryland

1 unit play each

will parlay all together also and add 5-0 SMU tomorrow if avail late this evening

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 4:34 PM ET #1314

The more i look at this Creighton/Nova match up the more i like Creighton to cover as both have had a high win streak 7-0 vs 8-0 so look evenly matched up to me and Creighton getting +6.5

I may throw something on them to cover and to be honest the ML looks inviting but not a big ML guy

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 4:38 PM ET #1315

damnnn i missed the Xavier game as i did not think it went off early

oh well maybe i saved a buck

will be good to see how it plays out with no wager

sebastianstis

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 219

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 4:54 PM ET #1316

Quote Originally Posted by sebastianstis:

Philmore has an ankle injury but is expected to play Monday against Depaul, looks like xav will win this one ...i'llplay 1st and if need 2nd half xav....they should cover

I won 1st half....I m out....gl to you for the 2nd half

DAVIDN

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 22444

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 4:56 PM ET #1317

RLeith35

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 59248

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 5:01 PM ET #1318

going against 3-0 win streaks to cover at record of 118-80 to not cover and playing Opposition at 60%

Marist

loy Maryland

1 unit play each
Hard to understand, 3-0 win streaks to cover record of 118-80 & now u say to not cover? and playing opposition at 60%
Please list the teams u are playing on? 1st u say going against
3-0 win streaks to cover, so u are going against the 3-0 ATS Teams, Right?

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 6:03 PM ET #1319

so u are going against the 3-0 ATS Teams, Right?

3-0 win streaks this year are

198 3-0 win streaks to date

118 did not cover

80 covered

that is 60% they do not cover or 40% they cover

we play opposition to cover at 60%

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 6:05 PM ET #1320

depaul down -8 getting +5.5 but were down -18 so i don't have much hope for a cover but missed game any way but would like to see record win

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 6:11 PM ET #1321

This game was a -10 point game from what is have seen today so odds makers were weak in point spread from what i can see,,

and after reviewing both of them playing Creighton earlier the 10 point diff was the proper PS in my opinon

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 6:20 PM ET #1322

the system heading is all win streaks to stop and all loss streaks to cover

3-0 to not cover 118,,,60%

3-0 to cover,,,,,,,,,80,,,40%

3-0 total all 3-0,,198,,,100%

we play opposition to cover@ 60%

Marist

loy Maryland

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 6:29 PM ET #1323

we are playing against 3-0 St Peters and Boston U

as 3-0 win streaks do not cover 118 out of 198 = 80 covers =40%

so we play opposition at 60%

Marist

loy Maryland

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 6:39 PM ET #1324

Xavier covers by 10 points and IMO the odds makers PS should had been +10 not +5.5 and game reflects the error in line placement for game

All teams this year that were on a 8-0 win streak are now

3 no Covers and 2 Covers of 5 teams reaching this streak level

Xavier goes to 9-0 Cover ATS streak level matching Unlv who was the only 9-0 ATS cover streak team this season so far and they could not cover and go to 10-0 and the 9-0 streak level is currently at 1-0 to stop or not cover =100 % they do not cover their next game per records

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 20, 2014 - 8:25 PM ET #1325

how we looking guys

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