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Ncaab ATS Streak Breakers for 2013/2014

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Captain
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Posted: #601
we have two NBA streak teams playing today but just at level 4

Atlanta  at 4-0 Win streak to not cover(12-12)
Portland at 0-4 to cover (9-11)
Odds not good enough to wager so we wait for higher streaks to arrive and they will

 
Captain
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Posted: #602
Gonna be a slow night as we have nothing in strong streaks in Ncaab or NBA 

We need to await Saturday when all hell will break loose with Ncaab

looking ahead to saturday  in ncaab we have

0-7 east ILL and 0-7 record to cover is 3-0
Will odds makers apply enough points for this team to cover as if not they will be the first team to go to 0-8 for 2013/14 season
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We also have 7-0 Nova and Unlv  win streaks to address and 7-0 win streaks to stop are 1-2
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There are 3,, 6-0 win streaks Sat, Rec to not cover(3-5)
Butler,Colorado,ILL Chi
Not the greatest of odds
____________
There are no 0-6 Streak teams on tap for Saturday but we
do have N Dakota on Sunday 12/29
0-6 record to cover stands at (3-4) not good
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There are Three 5-0 streaks on Sat, Rec to not cover (3-12)
What we have been doing is reverse the play to our advantage and play them to continue to 6-0 at 80% cover
Hawaii is at 5-0 streak and we play them to cover and follow record and that 80 % Could be the POD
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0-5 streaks have also been good to follow to 0-6 and record

is at (5-9) TO COVER so we reverse the play and take them to

 not cover or fade them and follow them to 0-6 or in other

 words play opposition to cover,Teams on a 0-5 loss streak are

(4) Color St,,Bradly,Prov,Alab all play Saturday (64%) they all

don't cover)  this could be interesting and i would watch how

 this plays out as teams play and poss time slots will give us

 time to review scores prior to next team play as there are no guarantee
better post this as may be maxed out
 
Captain
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Posted: #603
Correction we just have one Team at 5-0 hawaii not 3 sorry

There is just one 5-0 streak on Sat, Rec to not cover (3-12)
What we have been doing is reverse the play to our advantage and play them to continue to 6-0 at80% cover
Hawaii is at 5-0 streak and we play them to cover and follow record and that 80 % Could be thePOD
 
Captain
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Posted: #604
Level 4

there are two Teams at 4-0 win streaks and the record to not cover is 21-16 = 57% ( not a strong record so caution is the key word We do have 2 teams at this level on sat Utep and Harvard
and Usc on Sunday 12/29,Again not strong odds so caution is the key word
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There are three teams at 0-4 loss streak and that cover record is 21-19 again not a strong play area,South Fla,Tenn tech,and Iona,Caution is the key again
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level 3's i usually just monitor records, but as of late the 3-0's have not been covering well and record shows 62-40 they are not covering spreads which is a pretty good percent at 
61% and since there are only two teams i thought maybe i'd post them to see how they do, Rhode Island and Loy Marymount
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As said the Level 3's usually are just for monitoring and 0-3's bear that out at 46 covers and 47 no covers but the 3-0's seem to be doing quite well not covering at 61%

That covers all Streak Plays for Saturday and i hope when covers prints all the stats of streak records for games all my level posts are correct

if you are confused when i state wins = Covers
loss = No Covers

All of this  shows Odds makers records in applying correct points to balance out plays and i continue to point you to the level 5's of both win and loss streaks as they do not have that level under control

As noted i am looking for help with NBA and Hockey as this ncaab  takes all my time and i believe there is 
to be had in these sports as well

 
Captain
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Posted: #605
What if i may suggest is check time slots of all these teams and poss you can monitor their progress and update streaks W/L as they finish and you would have a stronger opinion of where they are at and your decision in how to play them
 
Captain
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Posted: #606
Appears Hawaii  does not play on Saturday and will not be a wager game until Jan 9th when play Cal Poly

They do play 2 games but with teams i doubt will be offered although Nebraska Omaha has been offered some times and they do play them on 1/3/14
We will need to wait and see
 
Captain
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Posted: #607
need to bring this over from prior page post as think its important to see and understand

so what have we learned from NBA is the following

teams on a 5-0 win streak you play them to not cover their next game. RECORD is 8-4 they will not cover (67%)
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Teams on a 0-6 no cover streak you play to cover their next GAME Cur Record is 5-1 they will cover at 83%

One problem is we don't have any teams at 0-6 YET
the closest we have is
0-4 Nets
0-4 Portland
also we do not have any at 5-0 yet but we do have
4-0 
Pacers
need to watch these teams reach levels we need
 
Captain
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Posted: #608
Went back to CONFIRM win streak records for 2012/13 to 
NOT COVER in Ncaab

11-0 streak 0-1 St Louis        last to not cover  3/06/13
10-0 streak 1-1 Appalach st  last to not cover  1/17/13
 9-0 streak  1-2 Geor town    last to not cover  2/27/13
 8-0 streak  5-3 Samford       last to not cover  3/08/13
 7-0 streak   8-8 Miss st         last to not cover   2/09/13
 6-0 streak 18-16 San fran    last to not cover   2/14/13
 5-0 streak  21-34 Cornell      last to not cover   2/22/13
 4-0 streak  84-55 Cal Poly    last to not cover   2/20/13

Odds makers record to stop all streaks 138 no covers vs 120 covers

2012/2013 Loss streaks to cover

0-10 streak    1-0 IUPUI         last to cover 12/23/12
 0-9 streak     2-1 Ole Dom    last to cover 2/07/13
 0-8 streak     3-3 Port St       last to cover 2/18/13
 0-7 streak     6-6 Utah St      last to cover 1/31/13
 0-6 streak  15-12 Oregon      last to cover 2/13/13
 0-5 streak  33-27 S Carolina last to cover 2/16/13
 0-4 streak  63-64 Wash St    last to cover 2/16/13

There were various teams with streaks that ended
on a streak at end of season with no games
left to play, so made minor adjustments at seasons
end. As who cares who was on a loss streak or win 
streak prior to March Maddness and season end
 
Captain
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Posted: #609
As you review all the various streak levels the 5-0 streak stands out matching this year the best by not stopping and instead going to level 6-0 against odds makers approach to stop them and at 62 % win ratio last year and this year they are at even better odds to continue at 80%  to cover against any point Spread

There definitely is something  brewing with this 5-0 level and i suggest you monitor this streak level and its ability to defy odds makers lines

 
Captain
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Posted: #610
went back into 2011/2012 season  and level 5's at seasons end

5-0 streak teams ended at 19 no covers and 27 covers (19-27)
and if reverse to go to 6-0,,, 27-19 = 57% to continue

0-5 streaks did not do as well as ended 22-24 to cover

these records are from seasons end 2012

If we add all 3 years together for 5-0 i think you have a pretty confirmed view that 5-0 steaks will continue to 6-0 although this year is not totally over yet but with 2 years records as posted it sure looks good and so far its been working 
 
Captain
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Posted: #611
so lets put these 5-0 streak records together for last 3 years
5-0 streaks to continue against any point spread placed by odds makers

2011/ 2012 59% to go to 6-0 seasons end (27-19)
2012/2013  62 % to go to 6-0 seasons end (34-21)
2013/2014  80 % to go to 6-0 to date (12-3) current

I can't promise but i'll see what i have for 2010/2011

 
Captain
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Posted: #612
Portland at 0-4 to cover (9-12) we got our no cover,Portland goes to 0-5,,,Can they not cover again at 0-6 so we can play the record at 0-6 to finally cover with record to cover at 5-1 we will see


 
Captain
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Posted: #613
played that Portland play last night very small just to see if we are on the right track and they miss the cover by .5116-112 giving 4.5

reviewing tonight's Ncaab and there are no streak teams at level 3 or above so will need to wait till tomorrow

NBA 
We have two 0-4 teams in play with record at  9-12 to cover can they not cover as Portland did last night,We will see
Brooklyn
Denver
record not great but can they both not cover as Portland last night so we  have more plays down line the way things are going i think we can so will play both to not cover and get to the streak level we need and hope record is 9-14 by end of evening
 
Captain
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Posted: #614
getting back to Ncaab,,, Saturday is going to be a BIG day as noted

Possibly we can play these big streak plays and keep a running record as some finish and others start so we can monitor how the records rise or lower

As noted level 5-0's there are no teams at this level at this time unless i screwed up but i don't think so,but plz confirm
when covers posts stats for tomorrow

There are some 0-5 streak teams (5-9) to cover 36%
 Color St,,Bradly,Prov,Alab all play Saturday (64%) they all

don't cover)  this could be interesting and i would watch how

 this plays out as teams play and poss time slots will give us
time to play each individually as day progresses.

We do have 3 teams at 6-0 win streak to stop (3-5) odds not good they stop 37% possibly we can monitor them at their time slots and see if anything changes or just play small to continue to 7-0 or pass
( Butler,Colorado,Ill Chi) Sunday 12/29 Wichita ST

Big Streak 7-0 to not cover(1-2) will play medium to stop knowing if they should cover their chance to cover at 8-0 is 100% they don't as record is 2-0 they don't cover

Nova
Unlv     hate going against my local team 

 
Captain
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Posted: #615
Been digging into old streak records of past and going back even further to 0-9/10 ncaab Season
and who knows what team had the best win streak for that year

will post answer later 
 
Captain
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Posted: #616
no responses 

Went back to CONFIRM win streak records for 2009/2010 to 
NOT COVER in Ncaab

11-0 streak  0-0 no Streaks reached this Level
10-0 streak  1-0   Tex A&M   last to not cover  3-11-10
 9-0 streak  1-1    N Iowa      last to not cover  1-30-10
 8-0 streak  2-2    San Fran   last to not cover  3-6-10
 7-0 streak   6-4   Tenn St     last to not cover  3-2-10  
 6-0 streak 18-10  Michigan   last to not cover  2-2-10  
 5-0 streak  26-28 S Miss        last to not cover  2-2-10  
 4-0 streak  49-54 Charlotte   last to not cover  2-3-10
                 
2009/2010 Loss streaks to cover
 
 0-14 streak   1-0 Tenn Martin last to cover 2/04/10
 0-13 streak    0-1
 0-12 streak    0-1
 0-11 streak    0-1
 0-10 streak    0-1        
 0-9 streak     2-1 Rutgers      last to cover 1/30/10
 0-8 streak     1-3 Texas        last to cover 2/01/10
 0-7 streak     1-4 Stanford     last to cover 1/09/10
 0-6 streak      9-5 Boise        last to cover 1/25/10
 0-5 streak   27-14 EMU          last to cover  2/01/10
 0-4 streak   52-41 EKU          last to cover 1/31/10
 
Prospect
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Posted: #617
So what are your top plays tonight?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #618
Sorry been on a break for christmas with the family.  Ill try get the nba win/loss streaks going!
 
Captain
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Posted: #619
Passing t nite no streak plays

Evening guys just finished getting all the lines
will start with top streak plays and work down

7-0 527 Nova +4 on Road 7-0 Streak record is 1-2 record has 
small lean to not covering but not by much,,I'm going with Cuse to cover if lose will be against them big time at 8-0 as 8-0 is 100 % stop record 2-0
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7-0 578 Unlv -14.5 at Home 7-0 streak rec is 1-2 record has small
lean to not cover and with -14.5 i'll take the points
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6-0 536 Ill Chi +13 at Home ( 6-0 streak record is 3-5 to not cover,going with streak record and -13
_____________________________________________________
6-0 614 Butler -21.5  Record same as above so have to go against Butler to cover and hope odds makers have this right
______________________________________________________
4-0 533 Harvard -6.5 Record to not cover 21-16 to not cover
Have to follow record they stop although just 57%
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4-0 584 Utep -12.5 record to not cover (see above) looking for a no cover although just 57 % 
____________________________________________________
3-0 550 Loy Mrymt (+6 ) 3-0 record is bad to cover at 62-40 so will play they do not cover
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Loss streaks to follow
 
Captain
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Posted: #620
correction

6-0 536 Ill Chi +13 at Home ( 6-0 streak record is 3-5 to not cover,going with streak record and +13
 
Captain
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Posted: #621
No NBA plays t nite as 2 at 0-4 and we need higher levels to wager on
Loss streaks to follow for Saturday i about 1 hour by time i post
 
Prospect
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Posted: #622
 
Captain
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Posted: #623
0-7 596 E ILL is testing my ability to play them at 0-7 even with streak record at 3-0 and i sure hope Odds makers have this right
If play i will play small as i do not have much faith in large loss streaks and even more with sub Teams giving points although small -2
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0-5 Providence 555 +9.5  0-5 record to cover is 5-9 against them and record says they will not cover so i will follow
record although against system objective to cover
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0-5 Bradly 564 +1 ( see 0-5 rec above) although S Fla record at 0-3 (46-45) could be a good game to pass although system is stuck with Bradly not covering.May play small
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0-5 Alabama 573 +9 ( see rec above) record says they don't cover so i guess i must follow what it tells me to do
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0-4 Furman vs 0-4 Cal is a stalemate so will pass this game 
_____________________________________________________
0-4 EWU at rec (21-19) is on the line so i will pass and hope what i have posted  above will come thru tomorrow
 
Captain
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Posted: #624
Ausadboss  welcome back and hope you had a nice holiday i already started NBA so just pick up from where i left off into streaks on Saturday but just monitor level 4 and higher but that's all up to you how you do it 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #625
Morn guys, hope all have a good day today with plays

Changing a few plays around so will post final plays
528
536
549
556
563
574
596

613  still ????


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