NCAA TOURNEY THREAD 151

well lets see how these lines moved from when they 1st came out 

louisville went up but then back down to 2.5 did hit 3 from opener of 1.5 I do see a couple of -3 though

BYU open 3.5 then 2.5  this morning I am seeing -2  

Purdue open 10 and went to 8  and has sat their and did go to 7.5 then back to 8  I do see some 7.5 also 

Wisc opened 17.5  now 16.5 with some 17 

Clemson has just sat at 7.5 the whole time  showing even action 

Gonzaga opens 4.5 shot right up to 6.5 and has stayed about there

TENN  open 18.5  and has sat at 19  

Kansas opens -4.5 went to 5 I do see a couple of 5.5 but mostly its -5 

Texas AM -7.5  and has sat there at most books  but this morning I do see 2 where it is -8

Missouri opens -4.5  shot right to 6.5 and is sitting there, I do see a couple with -6 

Mich open -3.5 and dropped to 2.5 and has sat there, I did post last night that I expected action on UCSD but will the line drop

st John -17.5  went to 18.5 and is sitting there at all I can see 

UCLA -5.5 but Sunday night I did see some 4.5 and went to 5.5  and has sat there, I do see a couple with -5

TexTech -15.5  has dropped to 14.5 I do see 2 with 15.5   

the bigger lines I ain't fucking with   Houston open at 27.5 is at 28.5, I do see a couple of 29   

Auburn 

South African racing just started  lol  630am 

@Mskeets

 I would have went same way, when ya win or lose by a point or 2 I like going back and looking at play-by-play to see just what happened, I feel your pain., shit like Loyola Chicago up 12 with 5 mins left and score 2 pts rest of game and I sat there in my write up and said how bad they were at ft's and yet it happens that day and cost me  ....missing front ends of 1-1's has to be the biggest reason to not cover late and for the other team to cover late...and as far as parlays if I go back and look in just the last 10 -14 days and I think I won 3-4 and on the ones I lost I won 2 of 3  you add those up on just those and its a hell of a record  lets just say for fun 7 parlays played and 3 won and 2 of 3 on others that's 17-4 on plays  if ya gave those as STR ups wow!!   parlays are just STR up plays , record like that people might think you know something...lol  

Good morning Rum…looking at the times you post, seems like you sleep like I do, 4 or 5 hrs here and there. Anyway…so glad you’re on Louisville. Good Luck today and this weekend!

Looking at plays on ESPN.. n Colo scored one … yep.   One basket from 11:40 mark.  Till 45 seconds left .. in second half.    Really.  One basket in 10 plus min of second half.     Geez.     Few thoughts.  Headed to play pickleball… is Michigan really gonna win big 10 tourney… then lose first round to ucsd… I looked ucsd schedule ova… its very nice for a mid major…. But is mich gonna throw this… I think they would have to…. Just better athletes … kids go there to get rich in hoops… ucsd is not to mich caliber in my opinion.      Ok.  Headed to pickle.  Talk amongst yourselves.    Any major opt outs you see rum.      These guys ruined the football bowl season over that… the root…. Of all evil.     Yet here we are.       ??????

@Mskeets

 well its not surprising for people to be on UCSD if anyone watched the bracket show when they came out, right when they did this side of the bracket with the Michigan game, that one guy who always picks upsets, the 1st thing he said was that UCSD would beat Michigan  , and I do not know why some of these people on other threads are saying how this is a line to get everyone to bet Michigan, if you have been at this for awhile , you know right away with a line of 2.5 it is if anything pointing to UCSD as the play, all you have to do is know about these teams, look at the record of these teams .I mean UCSD has won 15 in a row and has only lost 4 games all year, NOW  they have not beaten anyone ranked , they lost 1st game to SD st, so yes we have a team that has won a lot of games, but no big wins, and that would normally be the 1st thing pointed out to people, then you have Michigan who has just beaten Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin, they beat UCLA at UCLA, won at Wisconsin during the year, beat Xavier early, beat TCU early, lost by 2 to Arkansas early, lost to Oklahoma by 1 early, ...now lets say UCSD had played all those teams during this year, and many of them away or on neutral courts early in the year  I do not think they would have the same record, what UCSD has going for them is that this is just 1 game, just one today they have to win, I do not think in any way that UCSD could play a schedule like Michigan did and be in the same situation they are in now, but the ? is can they put together a game plan for this one day, can they not get into foul trouble, and maybe get Michigan into foul trouble, if they played Michigans schedule would they still only be giving up 62 pts a game??? I doubt it  but can they be that good today????? this line has not moved people all over have been betting UCSD this week, its no surprise they are being bet, its now a shock, its not like no one thought they would get bet , it was obvious people were going to be on them, and the line has been getting even action , which is what the opening line is meant to do, the line is not saying Michigan wins by 2.5  the line was hoping to get even action on both teams so the books can just make juice...and I would have to say it has done its job  

@RUM151

 Do you think the majority of the public will be rushing to bet Michigan today?

Would be helpful to everyone I think if you continue to post around 10 of your best plays early with your usual 1u 1.5u 2u scale.  Live bets and last minute bets is great for your money management but is very difficult for all of us to catch in time.  Appreciate your hard work and sharing your bets as always.  

@ALEXSON

 not really the line has went to -2, personally I think you will get some Michigan action, would not surprise me either way  looking around I have not seen 1 Michigan play on both sites I post at   I might just bet them for the hell of it because the world is on UCSD I do think playing a much tougher schedule helps, playing close games that really means something helps, who knows how Michigan is taking this, knowing everyone is against them, I mean most teams want to be the one no one expects to win, I think Texas AM, and Michigan, both those teams have to know many do not think they will move on   I do think Michigan can win today  just based on experience and schedule 

BYU  ML -130  1 unit   will be a good game, just think BYU will make some shots,  line is going against me here  

also OVER 133 Clemson  I think this could get to 140+  McNeese averages 75 pts a game and the last 3 they are avg 80 pts, now Clemson last 3 is avg 65 pts a game and giving up 60, I think McNeese will score over 60 and may make Clemson score more also, I do think someone gets over 72 and I think both could get to 70  so that's why the OVER here  

OVER 133  1.5 units  -120

@RUM151

 What are your plays today? Can you list them?

also I am taking Arkansas, and I will buy up to 6 just because I think this could be very close to this line, I would love to see Arkansas win this game, hopefully one of the better games today  was thinking of just taking 5.5 at -120  but 6 is better for me   people can say what they want  I am buying to 6 because I choose to do so, hopefully they cover 5  and the juice never mattered 

ARKANSAS +6  buying 1 pt  -130  1 unit 

151 

GL  on your plays @RUM151 

I'm probably overthinking this but cant get away from the idea NCAA would love a Pitino vs Calipari game here...I'm rooting for the upset!

taking Omaha +19 -120  I like st John's a lot  but they just do not score a lot of points, so to cover almost 20 I just do not see it here, and Omaha can score, st John's better extend their defense here, Omaha lost by 4 at Minnesota and they did lose by 30 at Iowa st, but that was at Iowa st who can really shoot the 3 well and most likely did , Omaha averaging 85 pts last 3 games , I think if they get to 62  they cover this for sure here, 4-1 STR up on a neutral site, and they have had a lot of rest , 9-2 STR up and 6-3 ats with rest advantage , 15-6 ats as a dog   its worth a shot here , shooting 51% last 3 games and 60% from 2  yes St Johns much better defense here   but these dogs that can shoot sometimes hang around 

Louisville -2 

High point +8.5  1.5 units  -120

Over 153 HP/Purdue  1 unit  -110

Over 145 Kansas/ark  1 unit 

Arkansas +6  -130  1 unit 

Over 133 Clemson  1.5 units -120

BYU ML  -130  1 unit 

Omaha +19 1.5 units  -120

Thank you a list of your plays is much easier to see the bets. Good luck bro

@Sportslover123

 oh I know   I try to eventually list them  gl today brother 

well picked this to be my biggest play and really didn't think this would be it until I started looking at it,  But Drake +7 -130  they are 6.5 and Hardrock raised the juice to buy a half pt here which means they most likely didn't want people taking it..lol 

am I stupid for paying juice like this IF I LOSE? maybe  but remember  its my money    and I am not telling anyone else to do it, just what I choose to do here,   Drake is 6-0 STR up and ats as a dog this year, and they are 7-0 STR up and 6-1 ats on a neutral court, Missouri traveling 285 miles and Drake about 330  they should have some fans there today with a 30-3 record , very disciplined team , play at their place, and they should be right there in the end, I think with maybe a chance to win this

they have been keeping the turnovers down to under 9 a game last 3 and if they can do that they have a very good shot, Missouri will want this higher scoring, Drake has to keep this in a pace they like   

Drake +7  2 units   

well louisville down 15  40-25  4 mins left in half  Creighton TT is 83.5  I think they go over, the total is 159.5  that's close  it seems an over  but I think their TT does went to 82.5  its a no play     but  damn these are tough 

they are going to get over the 82.5 damnit  

Took loui +11 minute ago.   Hepburn has half their points.  Coach needs to light a fire in these guys   Mizzou scares me… they beat some good teams down… drake was very good to me during year… leaving alone.   

over 160.5 Creighton  1 unit live bet

3 team Parlay I did move the lines some   over 149.5 Ginzaga/Texas am-6.5/Michigan ML  +422  half unit and had 30% boost 

cannot catch a break with the injuries  always to a team I am on