L2Thirst NCAAB NonConf Season Picks

This play above going well so I will offer more....

7pm

- a little birdie informed me the highest scorer for Syracuse will be out... I like Tenn -7.5 x HALF U and this has a good correlation

EMU/BUTLER Over 150.5 x 1U - two high scoring teams ...Butler 90 pts per game and EMU is one of the fastest rising teams because they are scoring well

New Mex St Under 137.5 x HALF U ....a grinder coming up from two good defenses and evenly matched teams....NMST score 100 only as a total the last time on a neutral court and that is what they are on tonight

William Mary HUNCH PLAY ML --- this team can flat out score and shock other good teams... +205 x HALF U and +5.5 x HALF U

Love the KNICKS tonight and UNDER in NBA..... I watched them dismantle the Raps and they were fast and tight....BIG team....and fast so Celts will have issues with no Jason Tatum

@Last2thirst

Play #1 in the books ...just went OVER 

3-2 BUT....my weakest plays lost so I am up good units especially with ML win tripling up

+2.5 gain and so I need to claw back from yesterday...but will do it methodically

@Last2thirst

 W&M was a great cash thanks for putting me on

Hey Canseco, it makes up for some two duds last night ....cheers 

I like the OVER initially and then really started to look at WM after seeing how they generate points and against who.....this like started at -8.5 I believe

@Last2thirst

 wow, great analysis. looking forward to more of your plays

Be selective...I use pure analytics, no emotional siding with a team and sometimes the gut is necessary in betting ...cheers

Ark Pine + 16.5 x HALF U

- UIC have not covered a line this high and lost their highest at -11

- Ark Pine can score ok 69.3 per game avg

- Illiinois is 78.3 and they give up 76+..... Ark Pine gives up over 95 per 

- the real reason I like it is teams ranked 151 - 190 are 24 - 47 ATS vs teams ranked 331+ or higher 

Wright St/ Youngstown Over 143.5 x 1U

-highly competitive matchup always....high scoring as its gone over 160 usually and OVER 150 the last 9x they played year after year 

- their SOS is almost exact and same with points scored and differential.....there is some value in Wright St +3.5 but I love the OVER in this one 

-I see no injury issues!

Under New Hamp/Dartmouth 146.5 x HALF U

- they have not gone Over this total since 5 matchups back....

- New Hamp scores 56 per game....Dartmouth 67 pts but were up around 74 at one point 

-similar SOS

- I expect Dartmouth will get 73-79 pts tops and NH around 60-64 tops........take the max on each and it still goes UNDER 

Interesting game..... high scoring Cornell at tough defense /low scoring Towson.... Cornell on a back to back and will have to rotate and generally, scoring comes down on back to back and now they will have to guard a lot of set plays using clock so they will be tired on offense and have trouble getting out to run on break to score easy buckets 

Correction: just got Under 154 x HALF U - Towson - Cornell

- home team will control the pace and score in the 70's but Cornell will as well maybe....but come under this number 

Under WVU 133.5 x HALF U 

-playing one of the 5 worst teams who only scores 57 pts a game

- I doubt Coppin cracks 50 pts and I don't see WVU breaking out to score 85 ....they could but its because Coppin was not effective at all themselves 

- WVU have held a couple of teams ranked 50 places higher than Coppin to score under 50 pts and hell, WVU held Pitt to 49 pts and they are top 100 team 

78 - 50 type of score....maybe 82 - 48  

FGCU +1 x 1U 

-wrong team favored here..... FIU gives up 10 more points than it scores while FGCU scores 1 pt more and 13 pts more on offense than FIU 

- FGCU with stronger SOS as well

-FGCU ranked in 160's / FIU #244

- the Over looks good but I just checked the last 3 yrs ....FGCU has won low scoring games (3 in a row)

Richmond - Belmont Over 155.5 x 1U

-game should be a track meet...BOTH like to score up and down and fast shooting at times ...both at 84-85 per game ....just need one to score 82-84 and should be  good here...I can see that

Best of luck on tonight's plays L2t 

Thanks Colonel  Same to you!

I like Maine - Ohio Under 138.5 x HALF U

72-64 final score ...maybe 70-60

-Maine holds opponents to 69 and score 60 ....Ohio only averages 71 per game but they have played some good teams and given up over 80...Maine does not play rockem sockem up and down point barrage games 

Central Conn vs Seton Hall Over 129.5 x 1U

- CC can score 72+ a game and only give up 75 ....so give Seton Hall their 76 pts scored per game.....

-Seton only allows 61.5 but I bet some of those games were not even close to the type of team CC is....give CC 58-64 pts

Final Score conservatively 74 -58 > SCORE GOES OVER 

SF Austin -6.5 x HALF U

-traditionally very strong at home and they have a nice 'clean' basketball team meaning they do the little things right on offense and defense > 75 pts OFF / 67-68 DEF pts ....while UTRGV gives up 7 pts more than they score which is 1 pt higher than SF but they will keep things clean as the game goes on ....it might be close at half but SF should pull away in the second half

@Last2thirst

5 - 4 ....could be 6-4 if I get 9 pts in the final 3 minutes of Richmond game

Cal Poly ML x 1U  @+95

- quite a bit better rank and better head to head recently 

Just see one good Total Play I like today so far....without even getting into rank correlations

Fairfield scores 75+ pts and gives up close to the same.....their opponent Manhattan scores 77+ but gives up up to 91+ pts 

I see both teams getting above 75 pts and one likely as high as 85 or more

OVER Fairfield 156 x HALF U

....its a tight total but should go over....action play best option that I can see so far

Home team taking +5 or better in the heavy hitters category has been good cash so I like Kentucky in this one to be very motivated and hang with Zaga >> Kentucky +5 x HALF U  with a Friday night crowd in Rupp Arena which should be electric tonight