L2T Conference Betting Thread

Going exclusively with best Positive rank correlations and Fades today: - just too many games!!!

12 - 1pm games - best positive correlations

-both these teams I am selecting have a very favorable spread according to my stats > -11 to -15.5 = 35 - 25 - 2 ATS for teams rated in the Top 20

Play #1 today - Illinois -15.5 x 1U

Play #2 - UCONN -11 x HALF U

Back later to comment on 2 pm games if I get the time to break them down  with my spreadsheet... 

@Last2thirst

L2T.......

Fade the Favorite Plays at 12-1pm:

Play #3 Canisius +3.5 x HALF U

@Last2thirst

@Last2thirst

Don't know if I can get 2 pm games done in time as my midday has been disrupted by a business call...

One game I always love to bet and hit a high% on the TOTAL:

S.Dakota-N.Dakota OVER 160.5 x 2U

-just look at past matchups and both teams ability to score in uptempo matchups

This makes 2 Saturdays in a row my trends can be thrown in the garbage and its perplexing me but I know, sometimes you have to stick with them

They work well in weekday games and most Sundays...

Might have to just do TOTALS on Saturdays

This makes 2 Saturdays in a row my trends can be thrown in the garbage and its perplexing me but I know, sometimes you have to stick with them

They work well in weekday games and most Sundays...

Might have to just do TOTALS on Saturdays

And I accidentally played it twice!

Favorites again no chance on a Saturday >> 67 - 94 - 2 ATS  ....that is brutal

Depending on how the 2nd half lines go....I definitely will be making a bet for the 2nd half..... I had a notion to bet one side before the game started but am not quite down my full 365 team rank updated which has to be done every 10 days.... and takes about 4 hrs. Should be done in an hour

Penn St -3.5 2nd x HALF U ....was hoping for better

Game Total In game > UNDER 160.5 x 1U

- I fully expect Maryland to run out of gas in the second half after a week out west and their bodies not adjusted yet to their usual circadian rhythm's....Penn St's defense will tighten on Terps and they will win the half 39 - 35 (74 total) or 42 - 34 (76 total) in the second half

Using my experience on these couple of bets...no guarantees though but like my thesis as I tend to see it work more times than not

Maryland might lose the game despite a 30 pt lead at halftime.... 

UNDER 170.5 in game x 2U << got one more pt when laid 

-what a reversal by PST ....wow....I think I can this as that number implies Penn St will keep fouling them and this is close to a 5 pt per minute pace ....too much in my opinion

Came out of that game +1 U  

Bizzare game

Might have a play later ....just got done my updates and gonna correlate to see if anything fits really well

A squeaker!

UTSA +21 @ Memphis  x HALF U

- I literally have no recordings of a team ranked 91 - 120th being a favorite by more than -20.5 so that tells me this is TOO HIGH

- when the spread is -16 to -20.5, teams ranked that high as favorites are 12 - 7 ATS 

- this is not a great play at that number ....careful

Just for some action also....and the fact that the spread of -2.5 or lower for the fave (TULANE) so bad ATS that I will take North Texas ML x HALF U  (fave is 41-62-3 ATS with that line if ranked 151 - 190)

GL ....I am out with the wife the rest of the day - evening

Chop but I made a little profit with the ML .... +1.2 U today and yesterday EVEN.... nice to get out of the weekend without a bludgeon like last week where I was 3 - 9 but needed Utah St to save my butt and end up +1.5U with that last 5U play 

Best part.... my data is ALL updated and perfect and I can see there has been a lot of movement in rank difference and point differential 

2pm Play # 1 - DOUBLE UP PLAY x HALF U  > UMBC #289 @ #360 Binghampton

-this is a matchup play but the rank correlation is successful at a rate of 74 - 68 ATS and this spread is 37 - 36 successful for a team with UMBC's rank group

-UMBC is a strong offense with good FG% and very strong 74th ranked 3pt shooting ..... Binghampton struggle to prevent 3pt shots and are rated #348th against

I think this total is too low at 140.5 .... Binghampton totals at home are usually this number or higher ....UMBC can put up 75-90 pts on the road easily

Play #2 - no Double Up - LIU ML 1.76 and UNDER 149.5 (1.90) parlay x HALF U

-BIG difference in offense and LIU has won 5 in a row including two roadies....and scored 81 on Georgia and only lost by 15 while LeMoyne lost by 35 to Texas and and scored only 56 

The parlay above pays +234 x $50 ....good shot at over $100+ profit !

New Double Up Play - Texas AM CC +8.5 x HALF U 

-they used to dominate McNeese who have stepped up the last 2 years including making the NCAA tourney....... but if you look at when TexAMCC played them and were at home....games were decided within 1 pt

-TexamCC can play tough defense and score well enough to stay in every game.....liking this play a lot now  

1 - 0 ATS  +HALF U

I like this play to go UNDER > Alabama St Under 146.5 x HALF U

Update on Texas AMCC play > I got +9.5 for my DOUBLE UP by the time I played it 5 min ago....bonus point added for that new 1st leg of DOUBLE UP